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Josh Bersin

Josh Bersin

In 2001, Josh Bersin founded Bersin & Associates, which became the leading research and advisory company for corporate learning, talent management, and HR. In 2012, Josh sold the company to Deloitte, when it became known as Bersin by Deloitte. As a Deloitte partner, Bersin was involved in many HR and learning engagements and was a principal author of Deloitte’s annual Human Capital Trends Report. He retired from Deloitte in 2018.

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Josh Bersin

Is DEI Going to Die in 2024? Josh Bersin 的文章讨论了 2024 年多元化、公平与包容（DEI）项目所面临的重大挑战和批评，特别强调了 "反觉醒 "评论家的攻击和克劳迪娜-盖伊（Claudine Gay）从哈佛辞职的事件。报告探讨了多元包容计划在当前的文化战争中扮演的角色、人们对它的看法以及法律挑战对多元包容计划招聘和投资的影响。尽管存在这些挑战，贝尔辛还是强调了发展型企业的实际商业利益，展示了成功的战略以及将发展型企业融入业务而不仅仅是人力资源的重要性。他认为，应将重点转向在所有业务部门嵌入包容、公平薪酬和开放讨论的原则，并指出，未来的企业发展指数至关重要，但需要适应和领导层的承诺才能茁壮成长。 Is DEI Going to Die in 2024? By Josh Bersin For anyone working in Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI), it is safe to say that it has been a tough start to 2024. For a while now, there has been a concerted attack on DEI programs, with ‘anti-woke’ commentators and public figures querying their value, worth, and even existence. Those attacks increased enormously in 2024 with the resignation of Claudine Gay from Harvard. While the call to resign was supposedly related to plagiarism, one can’t help but feel that her position as a leading DEI advocate also fuelled the demand. It means that DEI has come under increased and sustained fire, and despite the many benefits provided by a good DEO program – to both employer and employee – there is a feeling that 2024 could be the year that DEI fades away. How likely is this to happen, and what would the impact be if it did? DEI and the culture wars Anyone living and working in the US (or most other countries worldwide) over the past few years will have likely heard of the culture wars. Brought on by declining trust in institutions, growing inequalities, and the proliferation of technology, the culture wars involve opposing social groups seeking to impose their ideologies. All manner of things has been caught up in this, from what’s on the curriculum at schools to taking a knee at sporting events and from definitions of what constitutes a woman to allegations of tokenism in the workplace. DEI has played an unwitting but central part in the culture wars. There’s a perception that DEI programs are ‘woke’ and prioritize ethnicity and gender over achievement and ability. In August of 2023, an attorney filed (and won) a lawsuit against a VC firm that gives grants to black entrepreneurs. Similar suits have been filed against firms with diversity hiring programs, scholarships, and internships. The resignation of Claudine Gay has reinvigorated the commentary around DEI programs. Josh Hammer, a conservative talk show host and writer, wrote on the social media platform X that taking down Dr. Gay was a “huge scalp” in the “fight for civilizational sanity. ” It was described as “a crushing loss to DEI, wokeism, antisemitism & university elitism,” by conservative commentator Liz Wheeler, and the “beginning of the end for DEI in America’s institutions,” by the conservative activist Christopher Rufo, who had helped publicize the plagiarism allegations against Claudine Gay. When something is as consistently criticized and devalued as DEI programs have been, a toll is inevitably taken. That is certainly indicated by the latest hiring data for DEI professionals. According to data from labor market analytics company Lightcast, hiring for DEI positions in the US is down by 48% year over year, in the middle of an economic boom. Clearly, DEI investments are under attack. And when you look at companies doing layoffs, DEI jobs are frequently high on the list of jobs to cut. I even heard a recent podcast with four well-known venture capitalists – three agreed that “doing away with DEI programs” was top on their list. The value of DEI Given this criticism of DEI programs, one could be forgiven for thinking such programs carry no value to HR and the wider business. Yet many companies invest in DEI programs, and the value is high in almost every case I come across. Our Elevating Equity research in 2022 and 2023 found companies focus on diversity and inclusion for very pragmatic reasons, including: An inclusive hiring strategy broadens and deepens the recruiting pool. An inclusive leadership strategy drives a deeper leadership pipeline. An inclusive management approach helps attract diverse customers and markets. An inclusive board drives growth and market leadership. (proven statistically) An inclusive supply chain program improves sustainability of the supply chain. An inclusive culture creates growth, retention, and engagement in the employee base. Organizations are not prioritizing DEI programs because they are woken or as a box-ticking exercise. They do so because DEI provides real and tangible business benefits. Workday, one of the most admired HR technology companies in the market, has pioneered DEI internally and through its products, and the company has outgrown and outperformed its competitors for years. Their product VIBE, an analytics system designed for this purpose, shows intersectionality, and helps companies set targets and find inequities in leadership, hiring, pay, and career development. But some law firms have posited that these types of programs are illegal – is there a case to answer? DEI legality In response, it’s important to consider the massive and complex pay equity problem. Until the last few years, most companies had no problem paying people in very idiosyncratic ways. The Josh Bersin Company looked at leadership, succession, and pay programs worldwide last year and found that there are massive variations in pay with no clear statistical correlation in most larger companies. This problem is called “pay equity,” and when you look at pay vs. gender, age, race, nationality, and other non-performance factors, most companies find problems. Is this a “DEI” program? When we looked at pay equity in detail last year, we found that only 5% of companies have embarked on a strategic equity analysis. While most companies do their best to keep pay consistent with performance, these studies always find problems. Would it be considered illegal to analyze pay by race or nationality and then fix the disparities? The future of DEI DEI is undoubtedly a complex issue, and many organizations will be uncertain about the best course of action. Despite the current wave of criticism, there has been vast investment in DEI strategy over recent years, and business leaders are highly unlikely to let that fade away. Despite the anti-woke movement, political debates, and the inability of Harvard, Penn, and other universities to speak clearly on these topics, businesses will not stop. Affirmative Action was not created to discriminate; it was designed to reduce discrimination. At the University of California, where Affirmative Action was halted in 1995, studies found that earnings among African American STEM graduates decreased significantly. So, one could argue that they were making a real difference. DEI will not die – it is far too important for that to happen. However, it’s time to do away with the “DEI police” in HR and focus on embedding the principles of inclusion, fair pay, and open-minded discussions across all business units. Senior leaders must take ownership of this issue. In the early 2000s, companies hired Chief Digital Officers to drive digital technology implementation, ideas, and strategies. As digital tools became commonplace, the role went away. We may be entering a period where the Chief Diversity Officer has a new role: putting the company on a track to embrace inclusion and diversity in every business area and spending less time pushing the agenda from a central group. In every interview we conduct on this topic, we see overwhelming positive stories from various DEI strategies. Each successful company frames DEI as a business rather than an HR strategy. While HR-centric DEI investments are shrinking, it’s more like them migrating into the business where they belong. 中文翻译如下，仅供参考： 2024年，多样性、公平与包容（DEI）将走向消亡吗？作者：Josh Bersin 对于那些致力于多样性、公平与包容（DEI）领域的人士来说，2024年的开端无疑充满挑战。近期，DEI项目遭到了前所未有的集中攻击，包括一些“反觉醒”评论员和公众人物对其价值、意义乃至存在的质疑。特别是随着Claudine Gay从哈佛大学的辞职，这种攻击愈发激烈。尽管她的辞职表面上与剽窃事件有关，但不难察觉，她作为DEI领域的领军人物，这一身份似乎也是辞职呼声高涨的一个重要因素。这意味着，DEI正面临着前所未有的挑战。尽管高效的DEI项目能够为雇主和雇员带来众多益处，但人们仍担忧2024年可能成为DEI逐渐淡出视野的一年。这种情况发生的可能性有多大？如果真的发生，又会产生何种影响？ DEI与文化战争近年来，无论是在美国还是全球其他大多数国家，你可能都会听说过“文化战争”。这场战争源于对机构的信任下降、不平等现象的加剧以及技术的广泛传播，涉及到试图强加自己意识形态的社会对立群体。从学校课程内容、体育赛事中的下跪行为，到对“女性”定义的争议、以及工作场所中的代表性指控等，无一不被卷入这场文化战争。而DEI，在这场战争中虽不愿意却占据了核心位置。人们普遍认为DEI项目倾向于“觉醒”，过分强调种族和性别因素，而忽视了成就和能力。2023年8月，一位律师成功对一家支持黑人创业者的风险投资公司提起诉讼。类似的诉讼也针对那些实施多样性招聘、奖学金和实习计划的公司提起。 Claudine Gay的辞职再次引发了对DEI项目的广泛讨论。保守派脱口秀主持人和作家Josh Hammer在社交媒体平台X上表示，击败Gay博士是“为文明理智而战的一大胜利”。保守派评论员Liz Wheeler称之为“对DEI、觉醒主义、反犹太主义及大学精英主义的沉重打击”，而保守派活动家Christopher Rufo则称这是“DEI在美国机构中走向终结的开始”。如此一致的批评和贬低无疑对DEI项目造成了重创。根据劳动力市场分析公司Lightcast的数据显示，尽管经济蓬勃发展，但美国DEI相关职位的招聘量同比下降了48%。显然，DEI正面临严峻挑战。当提到公司裁员时，DEI相关职位往往是裁减名单上的重点。我最近听到一个播客，四位知名风险投资家中有三位认为“取消DEI项目”是他们的首要任务。 DEI的价值面对如此批评，人们或许会误以为DEI项目对人力资源和更广泛的商业活动没有任何价值。然而，实际上，许多公司对DEI项目的投资极具价值，几乎每个案例都能证明这一点。我们在2022年和2023年的《提升公平研究》中发现，公司出于实际原因关注多样性和包容性，这包括：包容性招聘策略扩大了招聘范围。包容性领导力策略深化了领导力储备。包容性管理方式吸引了多元化的客户和市场。包容性董事会推动了市场增长和领导地位（这一点已通过统计数据得到证明）。包容性供应链项目提升了供应链的可持续性。包容性文化促进了员工的增长、留存和参与。组织之所以优先考虑DEI项目，并非仅仅因为“觉醒”，或者作为勾选式行动。他们这样做是因为DEI确实带来了实际和有形的商业利益。例如，Workday这样的HR技术公司在市场上备受尊敬，它不仅在内部推广DEI，在其产品中也体现了这一点，多年来一直超越竞争对手的增长和表现。它们的产品VIBE，一个专门设计的分析系统，展示了交叉性，帮助公司设定目标，找出领导力、招聘、薪酬和职业发展中的不平等。然而，一些律所提出这类计划可能违法——这是否成立呢？ DEI的合法性面对这一问题，我们不得不考虑到复杂且广泛的薪酬公平问题。直到最近几年，大多数公司在个性化支付薪酬方面并未遇到太大问题。Josh Bersin Company去年对全球的领导力、继承计划和薪酬计划进行了研究，发现在许多大公司中，薪酬存在巨大差异，且大多没有明显的统计相关性。这个问题被称作“薪酬公平”。当涉及到性别、年龄、种族、国籍等非绩效因素时，大多数公司都存在问题。那么，分析基于种族或国籍的薪酬差异并加以解决，这会被认为是非法的吗？ DEI的未来 DEI无疑是一个复杂的议题，许多组织对于采取何种措施感到不确定。尽管面临当前的批评浪潮，但近年来对DEI策略的巨大投资表明，商业领袖们不太可能让这一切付诸东流。尽管存在反觉醒运动、政治辩论，以及哈佛、宾夕法尼亚大学等教育机构在这些议题上的模糊立场，但商界不会因此而停滞不前。平权行动的初衷不是为了歧视，而是为了减少歧视。例如，在加州大学，自从1995年停止实施平权行动以来，研究发现非洲裔美国人STEM专业毕业生的收入显著下降。因此，可以说这些措施确实产生了积极的影响。 DEI不会消亡——它对此太重要了。然而，现在是时候取消人力资源部门中的“DEI警察”，转而专注于在所有业务单元中嵌入包容性、公平薪酬和开放性讨论的原则。高级领导层必须对这一议题负起责任来。回顾21世纪初，许多公司聘请首席数字官来推动数字技术的实施、创意和战略。随着数字工具成为常态，这一角色逐渐消失。我们可能正处于一个新的时期，首席多样性官的角色也在发生变化：不再是从中心团队推动议程，而是引导公司在每一个业务领域都拥抱包容性和多样性。通过我们在这个话题上的每次采访，我们都能看到各种DEI策略的积极故事。每个成功的公司都将DEI视为一项业务策略，而非仅仅是人力资源策略。虽然以HR为中心的DEI投资正在减少，但这更像是它们向业务领域的转移，这正是它们应有的归属。

Josh Bersin
2024年02月23日
Josh Bersin

Autonomous Corporate Learning Platforms: Arriving Now, Powered by AI Josh Bersin 的文章通过人工智能驱动的自主平台介绍了企业学习的变革浪潮，标志着从传统学习系统到动态、个性化学习体验的重大转变。他重点介绍了 Sana、Docebo、Uplimit 和 Arist 等供应商的出现，它们利用人工智能动态生成和个性化内容，满足了企业培训不断变化的需求。Bersin 讨论了跟上多样化学习需求所面临的挑战，以及人工智能解决方案如何提供可扩展的高效方法来管理知识和提高学习效果，并预测了人工智能将从根本上改变教学设计和内容交付的未来。推荐给大家： Thanks to Generative AI, we’re about to see the biggest revolution in corporate learning since the invention of the internet. And this new world, which will bring together personalization, knowledge management, and a delightful user experience, is long overdue. I’ve been working in the corporate learning market since 1998, when the term “e-learning” was invented. And every innovation since that time has been an attempt to make training easier to build, easier to consume, and more personalized. Many of the innovations were well intentioned, but often they didn’t work as planned. First came role based learning, then competency-driven training and career-driven programs. These worked great, but they couldn’t adapt fast enough. So people resorted to short video, YouTube-style platforms, and then user-authored content. We then added mobile tools, highly collaborative systems, MOOCs, and more recently Learning Experience Platforms. Now everyone is focused on skills-based training, and we’re trying to take all our content and organize it around a skills taxonomy. Well I’m here to tell you all this is about to change. While none of these important innovations will go away, a new breed of AI-powered dynamic content systems is going to change everything. And as a long student of this space, I’d like to explain why. And in this conversation I will discuss four new vendors, each of which prove my point (Sana, Docebo, Uplimit, and Arist). The Dynamic Content Problem: Instructional Design By Machine Let’s start with the problem. Companies have thousands of topics, professional skills, technical skills, and business strategies to teach. Employees need to learn about tools, business strategies, how to do their job, and how to manage others. And every company’s corpus of knowledge is different. Rolls Royce, a company now starting to use Galileo, has 120 years of engineering, technology, and manufacturing expertise embedded in its products, documentation, support systems, and people. How can the company possibly impart this expertise into new engineers? It’s a daunting problem. Every company has this issue. When I worked at Exxon we had hundreds of manuals explaining how to design pumps, pressure vessels, and various refinery systems. Shell built a massive simulation to teach production engineers how to understand geology and drilling. Starbucks has to teach each barista how to make thousands of drinks. And even Uber drivers have to learn how to use their app, take care of customers, and stay safe. (They use Arist for this.) All these challenges are fun to think about. Instructional designers and training managers create fascinating training programs that range from in-class sessions to long courses, simulations, job aids, and podcasts. But as hard as they try and as creative as they are, the “content problem” keeps growing. Right now, for example, everyone is freaked out about AI skills, human-centered leadership, sustainability strategies, and cloud-based offerings. I’ve never seen a sales organization that does quite enough training, and you can multiply that by 100 when you think about customer service, repair operations, manufacturing, and internal operations. While I always loved working with instructional designers earlier in my career, their work takes time and effort. Every special course, video, assessment, and learning path takes time and money to build. And once it’s built we want it to be “adaptive” to the learner. Many tools have tried to build adaptive learning (from Axonify to Cisco’s “reusable learning objects“) but the scale and utility of these innovations is limited. What if we use AI and machine learning to simply build content on the fly? And let employees simply ask questions to find and create the learning experience they want? Well thanks to innovations from the vendors I mentioned above, this kind of personalized experience is available today. (Listen to my conversation with Joel Hellermark from Sana to hear more.) What Is An Autonomous Learning Platform? The best analogy I’ve come up with is the “five levels of autonomous driving.” We’re going from “no automation” to “driver assist” to “conditional automation” to “fully automated.” Let me suggest this is precisely what’s happening in corporate training. If you look at the pace of AI announcements coming (custom GPTs, image and video generation, integrated search), you can see that this reality has now arrived. How Does This Really Work Now that I’ve had more than a year to tinker with AI and talk with dozens of vendors, the path is becoming clear. The new generation of learning platforms (and yes, this will eventually replace your LMS), can do many things we need: First, they can dynamically index and injest content into an LLM, creating an “expert” or “tutor” to answer questions. Galileo, for example, now speaks in my own personal voice and can answer almost any question in HR I typically get in person. And it gives references, examples, and suggests follow-up questions. Companies can take courses, documents, and work rules and simply add them to the corpus. Second, these systems can dynamically create courses, videos, quizzes, and simulations. Arist’s tool builds world-class instructional pathways from documents (try our free online course on Predictions 2024 for example) and probably eliminates 80% of the design time. Docebo Shape can take sales presentations and build an instructional simulation automatically, enabling sales people to practice and rehearse. Third, they can give employees interactive tutors and coaches to learn. Uplimit’s new system, which is designed for technical training, automatically gives you an LLM-powered coach to step you through exercises, and it learns who you are and what kind of questions you need help with. No need to “find the instructor” when you get stuck. Fourth, they can personalize content precisely for you. Sana’s platform, which Joel describes here, can not only dynamically generate content but by understanding your behavior, can actually give you a personalized version of any course you choose to take. These systems are truly spectacular. The first time you see one it’s kind of shocking, but once you understand how they work you see a whole new world ahead. Where Is This Going While the market is young, I see four huge opportunities ahead. First, companies can now take millions of hours of legacy content and “republish it” in a better form. All those old SCORM or video-based courses, exercises, and simulations can turn into intelligent tutors and knowledge management systems for employees. This won’t be a simple task but I guarantee it’s going to happen. Why would I want to ramble around in the LMS (or even LinkedIn Learning) to find the video, or information I need? I”d just like to ask a system like Galileo to answer a question, and let the platform answer the question and take me to the page or word in the video to watch. Second, we can liberate instructional design. While there will always be a need for great designers, we can now democratize this process, enabling sales operations people, and other “non-designers” to build content and courses faster. Projects like video authoring and video journalism (which we do a lot in our academy) can be greatly accelerated. And soon we’ll have “generated VR” as well. Third, we can finally integrate live learning with self-directed study. Every live event can be recorded and indexed in the LLM. A two hour webinar now becomes a discoverable learning object, and every minute of explanation can be found and used for learning. Our corpus, for example, includes hundreds of hours of in-depth interviews and case studies with HR leaders. All this information can be brought to life with a simple question. Fourth, we can really simplify compliance training, operations training, product usage, and customer support. How many training programs are designed to teach someone “what not to do” or “how to avoid breaking something” or “how to assemble or operate” some machine? I’d suggest its millions of hours – and all this can now be embedded in AI, offered via chat (or voice), and turned loose on employees to help them quickly learn how to do their jobs. Vendors Watch Out This shift is about as disruptive as Tesla has been to the big three automakers. Old LMS and LXP systems are going to look clunkier than ever. Mobile learning won’t be a specialized space like it has been. And most of the ERP-delivered training systems are going to have to change. Sana and Uplimit, for example, are both AI-architected systems. These platforms are not “LMSs with Gen AI added,” they are AI at the core. They’re likely to disrupt many traditional systems including Workday Learning, SuccessFactors, Cornerstone, and others. Consider the content providers. Large players like LinkedIn Learning, Skillsoft, Coursera, and Udemy have the opportunity to rethink their entire strategy, and either put Gen AI on top of their solution or possibly start with a fresh approach. Smaller providers like us (and thousands of others) can take their corpus of knowledge and quickly make it come to life. (There will be a massive market of AI tools to help with this.) I’m not saying this is easy. If you talk with vendors like Sana, Docebo, Arist, and Uplimit, you see that their AI platforms have to be highly tuned and optimized for the right user experience. This is not as simple as “dumping content into ChatGPT,” believe me. But the writing is on the wall, Autonomous Learning is coming fast. As someone who has lived in the L&D market for 25 years, I see this era as the most exciting, high-value time in two decades. I suggest you jump in and learn, we’ll be here to help you along the way. About These Vendors Sana (Sana Labs) is a Sweden-based AI company that focuses on transforming how organizations learn and access knowledge. The company provides an AI-based platform to help people manage information at work and use that data as a resource for e-learning within the organization. Sana Labs’ platform combines knowledge management, enterprise search, and e-learning to work together, allowing for the automatic organization of data across different apps used within an organization. Docebo is a software as a service company that specializes in learning management systems (LMS). It was founded in 2005 and is known for its Docebo Learn LMS and other tools, including Docebo Shape, its AI development system. The company has integrated learning-specific artificial intelligence algorithms into its platform, powered by a combination of machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. The company went public in 2019 and is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq Global Select Market. Uplimit is an online learning platform that offers live group courses taught by top experts in the fields of AI, data, engineering, product, and business. The platform is known for its AI-powered teaching assistant and personalized learning approach, which includes real-time feedback, tailored learning plans, and support for learners. Uplimit’s courses cover technical and leadership topics and are designed to help individuals and organizations acquire the skills needed for the future. Arist is a company that provides a text message learning platform, allowing Fortune 500 companies, governments, and nonprofits to rapidly teach and train employees entirely via text message. The platform is designed to deliver research-backed learning and nudges directly in messaging tools, making learning accessible and effective. Arist’s approach is inspired by Stanford research and aims to create hyper-engaging courses in minutes and enroll learners in seconds via SMS and WhatsApp, without the need for a laptop, LMS, or internet. The company has been recognized for its innovative and science-backed approach to microlearning and training delivery. BY JOSHBERSIN

Josh Bersin
2024年02月18日
Josh Bersin

2024年人力资源预测：全球追求生产力 In this fast-evolving era, all companies and individuals are seeking for change and efficiency. We can see the core of productivity in the new year: AI. Let's have a look at details on the Josh Bersin Predictions for 2024. 在过去的二十年里，我一直在写关于人力资源预测的文章，但今年不同。我看到这一年打破了范式，改变了商业中的每一个角色。不仅人工智能会改变每家公司和每一项工作，而且公司将开始不懈地寻求生产力。想想我们的过去。2008年金融危机后，世界开始了加速增长的零利率时期。公司增加了收入，雇用了员工，并看着他们的股价上涨。招聘继续以狂热的速度进行，导致2019年底失业率创下3.5%的历史新低。随之而来的是大流行，在六个月内，一切都停滞不前。2020年4月，失业率飙升至15%，公司将人们送回家，我们重新设计了我们的产品、服务和经济，以应对远程工作、混合工作制和对心理健康的关注。一旦经济再次启动（由于美国的财政刺激），公司又回到了旧的招聘周期。但随着利率上升和需求不足，我们看到裁员一再发生，在过去的18个月里，我们看到了招聘、裁员，然后再次招聘以复苏经济。为什么会出现跷跷板效应？首席执行官和首席财务官正处于我们所说的“工业时代”——招聘以增长经济，然后在事情好转时裁员。今天，当我们进入2024年时，一切都不同了。我们必须“囤积人才”，投资于生产力，并重新开发和重新部署人员以实现增长。我们生活在一个失业率为 3.8% 的世界，几乎每个职位都存在劳动力短缺，劳动力权力日益增强，员工需求不断涌现：对加薪、灵活性、自主权和福利的要求。每年有超过20%的美国员工换工作（每月2.3%），其中近一半的变化是进入新行业。为什么这是“新常态”？有几个原因。首先，正如我们在全球劳动力情报研究中所讨论的那样，行业是重叠的。每家公司都是数字化公司；每家公司都希望建立经常性收入来源；很快，每家公司都将使用人工智能。过去停留在行业内的职业正在转变为“基于技能的职业”，让人们比以往任何时候都更容易跳槽。其次，员工（尤其是年轻员工）感到有权按照自己的意愿行事。他们可能会悄悄地辞职，“做兼职”，或者抽出时间转行。他们看到自己的生活很长（人们的寿命比 1970 年代和 1980 年代长得多），所以他们不介意离开你的公司去其他地方。第三，生育率持续下降，劳动力短缺加剧。日本、中国、德国和英国的劳动力人口都在萎缩。在未来十年左右的时间里，大多数其他发达经济体也将如此。第四，工会正在崛起。由于华盛顿的新理念，我们看到了谷歌、亚马逊、星巴克、GM、福特、Stellantis、凯撒、迪士尼、Netflix等公司的劳工活动。虽然工会参与率不到美国劳动力的11%，但在欧洲要高得多，而且这一趋势正在上升。这一切意味着什么？这有很多影响。首先，公司将更加专注于建立高保留率的工作模式（有人称之为“劳动力囤积”）。这意味着改善薪酬公平，继续混合工作模式，投资于以人为本的领导力，并为员工提供在公司内部从事新职业的机会。这就是为什么人才市场、基于技能的发展和工作流程中的学习如此重要的原因。其次，CEO必须了解员工的需求、愿望和要求。正如爱德曼的最新研究表明的那样，职业发展现在位居榜首，同时对授权、影响力和信任的渴望也排在首位。我们称之为“员工激活”的新主题：倾听员工的意见，并将有关他们工作的决定委托给他们的经理、团队和领导者。第三，传统的“雇佣成长”模式并不总是奏效。在这个后工业时代，我们必须系统地运作，将内部发展、工作再设计、经验和招聘放在一起。这汇集了招聘、奖励和薪酬、学习与发展以及组织设计等独立领域。（阅读我们的系统性人力资源研究了解更多信息。） “业务绩效”的真正含义是什么？如果你是首席执行官，你希望增长收入、增加市场份额、提高盈利能力和可持续性。如果你不能通过招聘来成长（而员工不断以奇怪的方式“激活”），你还有什么选择？这很简单：您可以自动化生产并专注于生产力。虽然这张图表令人印象深刻，但它给每个CEO都引出了一个问题：我们在这张图表上的位置是什么？我们的运营速度是否与同行一样快、一样高效？我认为这导致了一种我称之为“生产力优势”的策略。如果你能帮助你的公司更快地发展（生产力意味着速度，而不仅仅是利润），你就可以比你的竞争对手更快地进行重塑。这才是真正让CEO们夜不能寐的原因。考虑一下普华永道最新的CEO调查数据。今年，我们必须比以往任何时候都更快地重塑我们的公司。到2024年，45%的CEO（去年为39%）认为他们的业务在十年内将无法生存。生产力优势为什么生产力如此重要？有四个原因。首先，CEO们关心它。 2024 年普华永道 CEO 调查发现，CEO 认为公司 40%的工作浪费了生产力。尽管这听起来令人震惊，但对我来说却是真实的：太多的电子邮件、太多的会议、混乱的招聘流程、官僚主义的绩效管理等等。（HR 就有其中一些问题。）其次，AI让人生产力优势成为可能。人工智能的应用旨在提高白领的生产力。（过去大多数自动化都有助于蓝领或灰领工人。）生成式 AI 让我们能够更快地查找信息，了解趋势和异常值，训练自己和学习，并清理我们随身携带的文档、工作流程、门户以及后台合规和管理混乱的系统。第三，公司的发展需要AI。当很难找招聘到人时，你将如何成长？去年，招聘时间增加了近20%，就业市场变得更加艰难。你能在技术技能上与谷歌或OpenAI竞争吗？内部开发、重组和自动化项目就是答案。有了生成式人工智能，机会无处不在。第四，生产力推动重塑。如果你考虑重塑你公司（新产品、利用人工智能、进入新市场等）的需求，最大的障碍是惯性。为什么诺基亚和黑莓的手机业务输给了苹果？因为这些公司“又胖又快乐”。在这个人才和技能短缺的时代，这是灾难的根源。普华永道（PwC）估计，“效率低下”产生了对GDP10万亿美元的税收，相当于全球GDP的7%。这种税收阻碍了您的公司转型。每当我们简化、减少会议并更好地定义决策权时，我们都会加快并实现变革。这一切对人力资源意味着什么？正如我在《人力资源预测》中所描述的那样，我们有很多问题需要解决。我们必须加快向动态工作和组织结构的转变。我们必须专注于和务实地对待技能。我们必须重新思考“员工体验”，并处理我们所说的“员工激活”。我们将不得不对我们的人力资源技术、招聘和L&D系统进行现代化改造，以利用人工智能并使这些系统更加有用。我们的人力资源团队也将由人工智能驱动。正如我们的Galileo™客户告诉我们的那样，一个架构良好的“专家助理”可以彻底改变人力资源人员的工作方式。我们可以成为“全栈”人力资源专业人员，在几秒钟而不是几周内找到有关我们团队的数据，几秒钟与一线领导分享人力资源、领导力和管理实践。（Galileo被一些世界上最大的公司用作管理教练。）还有一些其他变化。随着公司专注于“通过生产力实现增长”，我们必须考虑每周 4 天的工作制，我们如何将混合工作制度化，以及如何以更有效的方式连接和支持远程工作者。我们必须重新关注领导力发展，在一线经理身上花费更多的时间和金钱，并继续投资于文化和包容性。我们必须简化和重新思考绩效管理，我们必须解决令人头疼的薪酬公平问题。还有更多。 DEI 计划必须嵌入到业务中（人力资源 DEI 警察的时代已经结束）。我们必须清理我们的员工数据，以便我们的人工智能和人才情报系统准确且值得信赖。正如我们的系统性人力资源研究所指出的那样，我们必须将思维从“支持业务”转变为“成为有价值的顾问”，并将我们的人力资源服务产品化。所有这些都在我们本周发布的40页新报告“2024 年人力资源预测”中进行了详细说明，其中包括一系列行动计划，以帮助您思考所有这些问题。让我提醒你一个大观念。生产力是人力资源部门存在的原因。我们所做的一切，从招聘到辅导，从开发到组织设计，只有在帮助公司成长的情况下才能成功。作为人员流动、敬业度、技能和领导力方面的专家，我们人力资源部门每天都在提高员工和组织的生产力。2024年是专注于这一更高使命的一年。最后一件事：照顾好自己。该报告有15个详细的预测，每个预测都有一系列需要考虑的行动步骤。最后一个真正适合你：专注于人力资源的技能和领导力。作为流程的管理者，我们必须专注于我们自己的能力。2024年将是成长、学习和团队合作的一年。如果我们处理好这15个问题，我们将帮助我们的公司在未来一年蓬勃发展。 Josh Bersin预测的详细信息预测研究是我们每年阅读量最大的报告。它包括我们所有研究的详细摘要，并讨论了首席执行官、首席人力资源官和人力资源专业人士的15个基本问题。它将以以下形式提供：包含详细信息的信息图。（点击这里) Source JOSH BERSIN

Josh Bersin
2024年02月01日
Josh Bersin

The best HR & People Analytics articles of January 2024 2024 is set to be a momentous year. With economic uncertainty, rising geopolitical conflict, and rapid advances in technology, it is also set to be a stormy 12 months for the world, for organisations, and for HR professionals too. Perhaps this explains the slew of insightful resources in January, which has made compiling this month’s collection as challenging as it has been enjoyable. One of the key focuses has been on ‘productivity’, and I’ve brought together a number of resources on this topic. There are also new studies from the likes of PwC, McKinsey, Glassdoor, Accenture, and Deloitte as well as articles featuring practitioners from companies including Spotify, Microsoft, Ericsson, Lloyds Banking Group, and Standard Chartered. There’s lots to enjoy and learn from. Join me for a webinar on February 21 to discover how Leading Companies shift People Analytics from insight to impact Are you an HR or People Analytics Leader seeking to transform your organisation’s People Analytics from mere insights to impactful business outcomes? If so, I invite you to join me for a webinar that Insight222 is hosting on February 21. Naomi Verghese and I will walk through the findings from the Insight222 People Analytics Trends research, unveiling the distinctive characteristics of ABCD Teams that propel organisations to new heights. Naomi and I will be joined by Alan Susi, VP and Global Head of Organisational Analytics and People Insights at S&P Global. Alan will share insights into how S&P Global successfully elevated their approach to people analytics, turning data into tangible business outcomes. You can register for the webinar here – or by clicking the image below. Jürgen Klopp – a study in leadership, culture, and analytics As a fervent supporter, I’m still processing the totally unexpected news that Jürgen Klopp will be leaving his post as the manager of Liverpool at the end of the current football season. In his press conference on taking the reins at Anfield in October 2015, Klopp stated his goal was to turn Liverpool from “doubters to believers.” He has done this with some aplomb amassing a haul of seven trophies (to date) including the Champions League in 2019 and then, the following year, the Holy Grail of Liverpool’s first league title in 30 years. But Klopp is more than a brilliant football manager. He is the epitome of an empathetic leader. His emotional intelligence and natural humility not only endears Klopp to his players, but to supporters too for whom he is adored. The reaction to the news reduced many Liverpool supporters to tears. I’m still hoping – probably forlornly - that like Alex Ferguson in 2002, Klopp will change his mind and stay. In the likely event that he does depart, I’m sure that multiple studies will be made on Klopp’s time at Anfield, and that his leadership skills, use of data and analytics, and ability to build an inclusive winning culture will be deservedly celebrated. YNWA. Looking for a new role in people analytics or HR tech? Before we get to this month’s collection of resources, I’d like to highlight once again the wonderful resource created by Richard Rosenow and the One Model team of open roles in people analytics and HR technology, which now numbers over 500 roles. Looking for a people analytics event to attend in 2024? Richard Rosenow has also been busy compiling a study of People Analytics Conferences to attend in 2024 with the data collected from practitioners themselves. Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychology (SIOP), People Analytics World and the Wharton People Analytics Conference all come out well as does the Insight222 Global Executive Retreat. Thanks to Richard for putting this together. Share the love! Enjoy reading the collection of resources for January and, if you do, please share some data driven HR love with your colleagues and networks. Thanks to the many of you who liked, shared and/or commented on December’s compendium (including those in the Comments below). If you enjoy a weekly dose of curated learning (and the Digital HR Leaders podcast), the Insight222 newsletter: Digital HR Leaders newsletter is published every Tuesday – subscribe here. THE QUEST FOR PRODUCTIVITY MCKINSEY - 2024 and beyond: Will it be economic stagnation or the advent of productivity-driven abundance? | PwC - 27th Annual Global CEO Survey: Thriving in an age of continuous reinvention | JOSH BERSIN - HR Predictions for 2024: The Global Search For Productivity | ERIK BRYNJOLFSSON - How AI Will Transform Productivity | BEN WABER AND NATHANAEL J. FAST - Is GenAI’s Impact on Productivity Overblown? When I talk with CHROs and People Analytics Leaders at the companies we work with at Insight222, one of the words I’m hearing most at the moment is ‘productivity’. Continuing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, the promise of AI, and challenging talent demographics are all fuelling the demand for productivity from CEOs. Here are five resources that can be filed under the ‘productivity’ umbrella: (1) McKinsey’s Ezra Greenberg, Asutosh Padhi, and Sven Smit present a model for businesses to capture the three-sided productivity opportunity (see FIG 1). (2) Amongst a ton of takeaways, the standout theme from the annual PwC CEO survey is that the vast majority of participating companies are already taking some steps towards reinvention, while CEOs believe that 40% of their work is wasted productivity (see FIG 2). (3) Josh Bersin draws from the PwC survey in his 2024 predictions, where he outlines The Productivity Advantage where “If you can help your company move faster (productivity implies speed, not only profit), you can reinvent faster than your competition.” (4) Stanford professor Erik Brynjolfsson offers leaders an overview of how AI will transform productivity. (5) Finally, Ben Waber and Nathanael Fast’s absorbing essay in Harvard Business Review cautions leaders on leaning into the hype on GAI’s supposed positive impact on productivity too heavily. The authors break down two of the key challenges with LLMs: a) their persistent ability to produce convincing falsities and b) the likely long-term negative effects of using LLMs on employees and internal processes. FIG 1: The three-side productivity opportunity (Source: McKinsey) FIG 2: CEOs estimate administrative inefficiency at 40% (Source: PwC) GERGELY OROSZ AND ABI NODA - Measuring Developer Productivity: Real-World Examples Continuing the productivity theme, this is an invaluable resource by Gergely Orosz and Abi Noda in The Pragmatic Engineer newsletter. It provides detail on developer productivity metrics at 17 tech companies including Google, Microsoft, Spotify, and Uber (see summary in FIG 3). FIG 3: Developer productivity metrics at 17 tech companies (Source: Pragmatic Engineer) 2024 HR TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS JASMINE PANAYIDES - Nine Ways to Put HR Trends and Predictions into Practice in 2024 There has been a flood of articles advising what the key HR trends, predictions, and opportunities for 2024 are, but how are HR professionals supposed to make sense of these? In her article for the myHRfuture blog, Jasmine Panayides provides actionable tips on how HR professionals can apply the trends, predictions and opportunities to their work, and their organisations so they can deliver value to the company and the workforce. Jasmine also helpfully summarises the trends/predictions from a variety of sources into one table (see FIG 4), including from: Visier Inc., Gartner, Bernard Marr, UNLEASH, Mercer, and Culture Amp as well as my own 12 Opportunities for HR in 2024 article. FIG 4: Analysis of HR Trends and Predictions for 2024 (Source: myHRfuture) KATARINA BERG - HR Trends for 2024 | GARTNER - 9 Future of Work Trends for 2024 | GLASSDOOR – 2024 Workforce Trends | HUNG LEE - Forecasting 2024 in Recruitment Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 | KEVIN WHEELER - What Does 2024 Hold in Store for Us? | STACIA GARR AND DANI JOHNSON – 2024 Mega Trends and how people leaders should respond (Webinar) The deluge of commentators offering their HR trends and opportunities continued in January. As such, it is a challenge to sort the wheat from the chaff but in addition to those I highlighted in this compendium in December, and in Jasmine’s article above, I recommend diving into the following: (1) Spotify’s chief people officer, Katarina Berg, highlights ten trends with the common theme being each trend is a bridge, connecting the past with the future, and HR professionals are the architects crafting these vital links – including “Staying Human in the Age of AI – The Humanity Bridge”. (2) Gartner’s Jordan Turner and Emily Rose McRae highlight nine future of work trends for the year ahead (see FIG 5). (3) Aaron Terrazas and Daniel Zhao identify eight workforce trends based on Glassdoor’s data on workplace satisfaction, culture, and conversations. (4) Hung Lee is at the cutting edge of recruiting and HR tech, so his four-part series on recruiting in 2024 is definitely worth checking out – two examples include: “Multi-generational replaces neurodiversity as DEIB hot topic” and “Capital Allocation Shifts from Sourcing & Engagement to Assessment & Verification Tech”. (5) Futurist Kevin Wheeler offers seven insights and predictions together with his self-assessed certainty rating including “Generative AI will dominate, and every product will attempt to incorporate AI. 90% certainty” and “More firms will embrace a four-day workweek 50% certainty”. (6) Finally, I strongly recommend viewing the 2024 Mega Trends webinar hosted by Stacia Sherman Garr and Dani Johnson for RedThread Research, which breaks down the key macro factors impacting the world of work and how HR can respond. FIG 5: 9 Future of Work Trends for 2024 (Source: Gartner) GREG NEWMAN - 10 important topics that HR will likely ignore in 2024 Greg Newman takes an alternative, wry and contrarian approach by focusing his list of “predictions” on ten things most HR teams will continue to ignore in 2024. My favourite three are: (1) speaking the language of the business, (2) focusing AI conversations on ethics before technology, and (3) learning that good data is required to realise the dreams of AI and analytics. By aligning HR language with business terminology, we can more effectively demonstrate the value of our initiatives in a way that resonates with business stakeholders. GENERATIVE AI AND THE FUTURE OF WORK ELLYN SHOOK AND PAUL DAUGHERTY - Work, workforce, workers: Reinvented in the age of generative AI A new study from Accenture, co-authored by Ellyn Shook and Paul Daugherty, on how generative AI is impacting work, provides guidance on how leaders can: “Set and guide a vision to reinvent work, reshape the workforce and prepare workers for a generative AI world, while building a resilient culture to navigate continuous waves of change.” The report reveals a trust gap between workers and leaders on key elements related to GAI’s impact on work, the workforce, and workers. The authors also highlight four accelerators for leaders to navigate the journey ahead: (1) Lead and learn in new ways, (2) Reinvent work, (3) Reshape the workforce (see example in FIG 6), and (4) Prepare workers. FIG 6: Illustrative example of how work and roles can be reallocated in a GAI future (Source: Accenture) ROGER W. HOERL AND THOMAS C. REDMAN - What Managers Should Ask About AI Models and Data Sets The decision on whether to deploy AI models within an organisation ultimately lies with business leaders who may not be qualified to identify risks and weaknesses related to AI models and data sets. In their article, Roger Hoerl and Tom Redman provide (1) A framework (see FIG 7) designed to equip leaders with context and based on their concept of the right data. (2) A set of six questions for leaders to ask their AI model developers before and during modelling work and deployment. (3) Guidance for leaders on how to assess AI model developers’ answers to those six questions. FIG 7: The Right Data Framework (Source: Roger W. Hoerl and Thomas C. Redman) PEOPLE ANALYTICS STEVE HATFIELD, SUE CANTRELL, AND BRAD KREIT - Beyond the quick fix: How workforce data can drive deeper organizational problem-solving The premise of this thoughtful article by Steve Hatfield, Susan Cantrell, and Brad Kreit is that without the right context, even simple measurements can undermine efforts to convert people data into value. They then explore several examples – in the workforce, in the workplace, and in the work – where organisations might be limiting their analysis to the surface level and how deeper analysis can reveal systemic issues that lead to opportunities for transformation. Guidance on three actions leaders can take to help ensure they are not missing important context in their data analysis are provided: (1) Bring data from different domains and sources together for analysis. (2) Make sure you’re measuring what you should—not just what you can. (3) Identify potential biases in data collection algorithms. If organizations want to move beyond quick fixes and use work and workforce data to drive deeper—and often more challenging—problem-solving, it is important that they look at the data in context. NAOMI VERGHESE - How to Measure the Value of People Analytics My Insight222 colleague Naomi Verghese digs how to measure the commercial value of people analytics, highlighting a powerful case study from Jaesun HA and LG Electronics. Naomi provides detail on four key areas where people analytics adds value (business performance, workforce experiences, driving an analytics culture and societal benefit) as well as providing data on the characteristics of companies that ARE creating commercial value from people analytics (see FIG 8). FIG 8: Characteristics of people analytics that disclosed and measured commercial value of people analytics solutions (Source: Insight222 People Analytics Trends, 2023) ANDRÉS GARCIA AYALA - 5 Change Drivers Impacting People Analytics & How To Thrive In Them | WILLIS JENSEN - Attrition versus Retention: Which Should I Use? | KEITH McNULTY – Regression Modeling in People Analytics: Survival Analysis | LYDIA WU - The Market Sucks and You are Looking for a Job, Now What? | SEBASTIAN SZACHNOWSKI - 16 HR Metrics for IT | ERIN FLEMING AND NICK JESTEADT - People Analytics Perspectives from the Fringe: Current Priorities and a View on Optimized Teams in 2024 January saw a slew of articles from current and recent people analytics leaders, which typically act as a spur and inspiration for the field. Six are highlighted here: (1) Andrés García Ayala highlights some of the key change drivers impacting people analytics and ways to incorporate them into our work. (2) Willis Jensen builds on the recent primer on attrition metrics by Ben Teusch that I highlighted in December’s edition. He explains why we should be using attrition and retention as separate terms that lead to distinct metrics with different objectives (see also FIG 9). (3) Keith McNulty provides another indispensable practical guide for people analysts with a step-by-step tutorial to conducting survival analysis in R. (4) The prolific Lydia Wu turns her attention to providing some handy guidance for those looking for their next people analytics / HR tech role. (5) Sebastian Szachnowski provides a useful breakdown of 16 HR metrics for technology companies. (6) Last but definitely not least, Erin Fleming and Nick Jesteadt provide insights from their survey of fellow people analytics practitioners. Insights include a) 41% of respondents (n=49) operate as a one-person people analytics team, and ii) the main current focus areas of work include employee turnover, cultural engagement, return to office, and restructuring. FIG 9: When to use Attrition and Retention (Source: Willis Jensen) MAX BLUMBERG - The Big List of GPTs to Revolutionize Your People Processes | JOHANNES SUNDLO - GenAI for People Analytics Two articles addressing the opportunity for generative AI in the people space. (1) Max Blumberg (JA) ?? sets out 93 potential ways to upgrade your People Processes with AI and GPTs across four categories – workforce planning and strategy, recruitment, learning and development, and employee wellbeing. (2) Johannes Sundlo provides examples of companies using GAI in their people analytics work to support analyses on engagement data, skills, and tailoring training recommendations. GPTs are an amazing tool for scenario planning, forecasting future workforce needs, identifying talent gaps, and developing integrated talent strategies. THE EVOLUTION OF HR AND DATA DRIVEN CULTURE DAVE ULRICH, NORM SMALLWOOD, AND JOE GROCHOWSKI - Why and How to Move HR to an Outside-In Approach When asked the question, “What is the biggest challenge in your job today?” HR professionals will typically provide answers such as: “Build a skills-based organisation” or “Help our employees have a better experience”. As Dave Ulrich, Norm Smallwood, and Joe Grochowski write, these answers would be far more powerful when a “so that” is applied e.g. “Help employees have a better experience so that customer experience improves.” The article demonstrates that greater value is created with an outside-in approach that starts with the needs of external stakeholders (customers, investors, community) and then figuring out the implications inside the company for meeting those needs. Dave, Norm, and Joe also present their Human Capability Framework and a tool that provides an assessment of an organisation’s outside-in performance (see FIG 10). FIG 10: Human capability from the outside-in - diagnostic questions (Source: Dave Ulrich et al) WORKFORCE PLANNING, ORG DESIGN, AND SKILLS-BASED ORGANISATIONS AMY WEBB - Bringing True Strategic Foresight Back to Business In her article for Harvard Business Review, Amy Webb defines strategic foresight as “a disciplined and systematic approach to identify where to play, how to win in the future, and how to ensure organizational resiliency in the face of unforeseen disruption.” Her article also advocates for the integration of strategic foresight as a core competency in every organisation, regardless of size. Moreover, Amy provides guidance on how to operationalise strategic foresight by unveiling a ten-step process. Read alongside another article authored by Amy for HBR: How to Do Strategic Planning Like a Futurist, which includes Amy’s Futurist’s Framework for Strategic Planning (see FIG 11). FIG 11: A Futurist’s Framework for Strategic Planning (Source: Amy Webb) WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM AND PwC - Putting Skills First: Opportunities for Building Efficient and Equitable Labour Markets As the introduction to this compelling collaboration between the World Economic Forum and PwC begins: “Skills and talent shortages are critical challenges facing societies and economies today. The absence of relevant skills impedes business growth, hinders economic prosperity, and inhibits individuals from realizing their full potential.” The report identifies five specific opportunities for intervention where the gains from skills-first solutions are most likely for employers and workers alike (see ‘Skills-first Framework’ in FIG 12). Additionally, the report also showcases 13 Skills First “Lighthouses”, including IBM, Siemens, Standard Chartered and Sanofi. It concludes by offering key takeaways regarding six success factors in implementing skills-first approaches including (1) Sponsorship from leadership, (2) Alignment with business needs, and (3) Data and evaluation for iteration. (Authors: Genesis Elhussein, Mark Rayner, Aarushi Singhania, Saadia Zahidi, Peter Brown MBE, Miral Mir, and Bhushan Sethi). A cultural shift to skills-first approaches needs both sponsorship from executives and governance from human-resources professionals FIG 12: Skills-first Framework (Source: World Economic Forum PETER SHEPPARD - Learning from our Skills Journey | BEN AUTY - What are the new skills people will need for the future of work? | TANUJ KAPILASHRAMI - How Standard Chartered is Unlocking the Power of Skills in the Workplace Many of the organisations we work with at Insight222 have embarked on the road to becoming a skills-based organisation. It is not an easy journey, so it is helpful to learn from other companies who are treading this path. Three of these are Ericsson, Lloyds Banking Group, and Standard Chartered. (1) In his article, Peter Sheppard shares learnings from Ericsson’s skills journey including a) it’s not jobs or skills; it’s skills and jobs, b) it’s a whole organisation activity, c) Less is more with skills, and d) Data drives value. (2) Ben Auty shares insights as to why Lloyds Banking Group is developing a learning culture to build the workforce of the future at the bank, the main skills they are focusing on, and the central role the recently established Reskilling Team is playing. (3) Tanuj Kapilashrami shares how Standard Chartered catalysed their work on skills by identifying adjacencies between ‘sunset’ and ‘sunrise’ roles. We looked at skills adjacencies between ‘sunset’ jobs and ‘sunrise’ jobs: so, what are the jobs that are going to go away? What are the skills that help employees get reskilled into some of these sunrise jobs? We ran five proofs of concept, we showed some real redeployment opportunities and started making the skills narrative real. EMPLOYEE LISTENING, EMPLOYEE EXPERIENCE, AND EMPLOYEE WELLBEING JENNIFER E. SIGLER WITH STEPHANIE DENINO - So Many Stakeholders, So Little Time: State of EX 2023-2024 The fifth annual State of EX study authored by Jennifer E. Sigler, PhD on behalf of The EXchange, Inc, TI PEOPLE and FOUNT Global, Inc. is a treasure chest of insights on the fast-evolving practice of employee experience. It highlights the top four priorities for EX as: (1) Redesigning experiences, (2) Getting broader buy-in for EX work across the organisation, (3) Building an EX roadmap for the organisation, and (4) Getting more / better data. One other standout finding from the study suggests that senior leaders are increasingly focused on EX with a majority of respondents (63%) saying their organisation’s senior leaders view EX as equal to or even more important than other corporate priorities. This bodes well for the future of EX. Thanks to Stephanie Denino and Volker Jacobs for highlighting the study. FIG 13: EX Team Priorities YOY Change (Source: The EXchange, TI People and FOUNT Global, Inc) LEADERSHIP AND CULTURE NADJIA YOUSIF, ASHLEY DARTNELL, GRETCHEN MAY, AND ELIZABETH KNARR - Psychological Safety Levels the Playing Field for Employees | PETER CAPPELLI AND LIAT ELDOR - Can Workplaces Have Too Much Psychological Safety? Two perspectives on psychological safety in the workplace. In the first article, Nadjia Yousif, Ashley Dartnell, Gretchen May, and Elizabeth Knarr present the findings of Boston Consulting Group (BCG) research, which finds how psychological safety benefits inclusion, reduces attrition in diverse groups and effectively acts as an equaliser - enabling diverse and disadvantaged employee groups to achieve the same levels of workplace satisfaction as their more advantaged colleagues. The study also highlights the direct relationship between empathetic leadership and feelings of psychological safety in the workforce, giving leaders a clear directive to be empathetic and thereby engender psychological safety. The second article by Peter Cappelli and Liat Eldor presents research that found that when you move from average to high levels of psychological safety, performance in routine jobs actually declined. FIG 14: Psychological safety has an outsize impact on retention for diversity groups (Source: BCG) RASMUS HOUGAARD, JACQUELINE CARTER, AND ROB STEMBRIDGE - The Best Leaders Can’t Be Replaced by AI While there are some areas where AI is already surpassing or will surpass human capabilities, there are several it cannot replace. Based on their research into employees’ comfort with AI in management, as well as their decades of research on the qualities of effective leadership, Rasmus Hougaard, Jacqueline Carter, and Robert Stembridge identify the promise (and perils) of AI-enabled management (see FIG 15), as well as the three uniquely human capabilities leaders need to focus on honing, especially as AI begins to figure more in management: (1) awareness, (2) compassion, and (3) wisdom. For more from Rasmus, I recommend listening to his podcast discussion with me: How To Be a More Compassionate Leader. Leaders who deepen their ability to lead with humanity will win at attracting, retaining, developing, and motivating top talent. FIG 15: AI versus Human: A matric of leadership activities (Source: Potential Project) DIVERSITY, EQUITY, INCLUSION, AND BELONGING JULIE COFFMAN, ALEX NOETHER, BIANCA BAX, CASSY REICHERT, AND KRYSTLE JIANG - The Business of Belonging: Why making everyone feel included is smart strategy Revealing data from a Bain survey of 6,000+ employees across four countries, which finds employees who have seen their companies intentionally invest in inclusion since 2020 are three times more likely to feel fully included than employees who have not seen such investment from their employers. Other findings include (1) Combining diversity and inclusion maximises a company’s capacity (by 4x) to innovate, and (2) Employees with inclusive leadership are 9x more likely to feel fully included at work (see FIG 16). (Authors: Julie Coffman, Alex Noether, Bianca Bax, Cassy Reichert, and Krystle Jiang). FIG 16: Employees with inclusive leadership are 9x more likely to feel fully included at work (Source: Bain) SHUJAAT AHMAD - DEIB Is At A Crossroads—It’s Time for Bold Action and Clear Metrics Given recent developments it’s reasonable to say that Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Belonging (DEIB) is at an existential crossroads. As Shujaat Ahmad writes in his excellent article for Round: “Boards, leadership teams, and investors hold the power to set the tone, shape the policies, and allocate the resources to support DEIB initiatives: for DEIB to work effectively, they must shift from well-intentioned wordsmiths to committed drivers that hold the organization accountable for outcomes and positive change.” Shujaat then unveils his blueprint to help leaders assess progress and drive meaningful change, clarifying the ‘why’ before diving into the ‘how’ covering measuring what matters and interventions (see FIG 17). For more from Shujaat, I recommend visiting Belong and Lead. FIG 17: Source – Shujaat Ahmad HR TECH VOICES Much of the innovation in the field continues to be driven by the vendor community, and I’ve picked out a few resources from January that I recommend readers delve into: ERNEST NG - If the Pitch is Too Smooth, It Probably Is: Why AI in HR is Difficult – Part 2 of an insightful essay from Ernest Ng, PhD of HiredScore (see also Part 1 on disclosures here) where he cuts through the hype to assess how we should be implementing AI in HR. LOUJAINA ABDELWAHED - A Tale of Two Cultures - In One Company - Loujaina Abdelwahed, PhD from Revelio Labs highlights the growing disparity between junior and senior employees (see FIG 18) and identifies the factors causing this malaise. Thanks to Ben Zweig for highlighting. FIG 18: The growing disparity in sentiment between junior and senior employees (Source: Revelio Labs) JEREMIE BRECHEISEN - Where Employees Think Companies’ DEIB Efforts Are Failing – Jeremie K Brecheisen presents findings from Gallup that reveals a disconnect between how well employees and HR leaders believe their organisations are doing when it comes to diversity, equity, inclusion, and belonging: 84% of CHROs say their organisations are increasing investment in DEIB, while only 31% of employees say their organisation is committed to improving racial justice or equity in their workplace (see FIG 19). The article then outlines ten needs employees say are not being met and then offers strategies to help organisations address the disconnect. FIG 19: How employees and HR leaders differ on perceptions of DEIB progress (Source: Gallup) FRANCISCO MARIN - Navigating the ONA Landscape: Trends and Challenges for 2024 - Another good read from Cognitive Talent Solutions, as Francisco Marin explores the key trends and challenges shaping the ONA space in 2024. IAN WHITE - The three C’s of effective performance management – Ian White, CEO at ChartHop, presents the three C’s of performance management — continuous, contextual and cultural — designed to help companies understand their employees more holistically. CHRISTINA JANZER - The surprising connection between after-hours work and decreased productivity – Christina Janzer presents findings from Slack’s Workforce Index, which identifies findings on how to structure the workday to maximise employee productivity, well-being and satisfaction – including the connection between after hours work and decreased productivity. FIG 20: Source – Slack PODCASTS OF THE MONTH In another month of high-quality podcasts, I’ve selected five gems for your aural pleasure: (you can also check out the latest episodes of the Digital HR Leaders Podcast – see ‘From My Desk’ below): AMY EDMONDSON AND LAURIE RUETTIMANN – Right Kind of Failure – Amy Edmondson joins Laurie Ruettimann on the brilliantly named Punk Rock HR to explore the essential role of failure in our professional and personal growth. STACIA GARR, COLE NAPPER, AND SCOTT HINES - People Analytics & HR Tech Research by Industry Analysts – Stacia Sherman Garr, one of the industry’s top analysts, joins Cole Napper and Scott Hines, PhD on the Directionally Correct podcast to discuss the research Stacia and her team at RedThread Research do in the people analytics and HR technology space. RICHARD ROSENOW, MADDIE GRANT, AND SANJA LICINA - How to Build an Integrated Framework for Workforce Listening – In an episode of the Empowering Workplaces podcast, Richard Rosenow joins hosts Maddie Grant and Sanja Licina, Ph.D. to talk about The Three Channels of Workforce Information: conversations (“what people say”), surveys (“what people say they do”) and systems (“what people do”) as a way to build a comprehensive understanding of your workforce. McKINSEY - The shape of talent in 2023 and 2024 - In this episode of McKinsey Talks Talent, Bryan Hancock, Brooke Weddle and host Lucia Rahilly highlight the trends that shaped last year’s talent landscape—and those poised to ‘redefine its contours’ yet again in 2024. MATTHEW BIDWELL AND DAN LONEY – Forecasting 2024 Workplace Trends – Wharton Professor and convenor of the Wharton People Analytics Conference, Matthew Bidwell, joins host of the Wharton Business Daily Dan Loney to look at the year ahead in the workplace. VIDEO OF THE MONTH CHRIS LOUIE, TOMAS CHAMORRO-PREMUZIC, TERRI HORTON, AND LINDSEY SHINTANI - Power a dynamic workforce by embracing AI An enlightening panel discussion from the recent LinkedIn Talent Connect where Chris Louie, Dr Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic, Terri Horton, EdD, MBA, MA, SHRM-CP, PHR, and Lindsey Shintani discuss how AI is changing learning and career paths. They provide guidance on how to overcome AI anxiety and empower impactful futures. BOOK OF THE MONTH KEVIN WHEELER AND BAS VAN DE HATERD – Talent Acquisition Excellence An excellent new book published by Kogan Page and authored by Kevin Wheeler and Bas van de Haterd (He/His/Him). It provides an insightful and detailed analysis of how technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning in combination with analytics can improve talent acquisition and recruitment. RESEARCH REPORT OF THE MONTH YUYE DING AND MARK (SHUAI) MA - Return-to-Office Mandates A huge thank you to Nick Bloom for bringing my attention to this paper from Yuye Ding and Mark Ma, which studied the impact of 137 Return to Office mandates on the performance of S&P500 firms from 2020-2023. The key findings, as summarised by Nick, are illuminating: (1) RTO mandates are more likely in firms with poor recent stock performance, and in those with powerful male CEOs. (2) Glassdoor data finds RTO mandates significantly reduce employee ratings for job satisfaction, work-life balance, and senior management. (3) There is no significant impact of RTO mandates on either firm profitability or firm stock-returns. FIG 21: Distribution of firms’ RTO mandates (Source: Yuye Ding and Mark Ma) FROM MY DESK January saw the first three episodes of Series 36 of the Digital HR Leaders podcast, sponsored by our friends at ScreenCloud. Thank you to Luke Farrugia. DAVID GREEN - The best 60 HR & People Analytics articles of 2023 Part 1 | Part 2 – My tenth annual collection of HR and people analytics resources is spread across two articles and ten themes. Part 1 covers i) the future of work and people strategy, ii) workplace design and strategy, iii) AI and the world of work, iv) people analytics, and v) employee experience, listening and wellbeing. Part 2 covers: vi) the evolution of HR, HR operating models and the CHRO, vii) building a data driven culture in HR, viii) workforce planning, skills, and talent marketplace, ix) leadership and culture, and x) diversity, equity, inclusion and belonging. THOMAS RASMUSSEN, DAWN KLINGHOFFER, AND JEREMY SHAPIRO - HR in 2024: The Impact of People Analytics, AI & ML – In a special episode of the Digital HR Leaders podcast to kick off 2024, I was joined by Thomas Rasmussen, Dawn Klinghoffer, and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the outlook for HR and people analytics in the coming 12 months. SERENA HUANG - How to Enhance Your Career in People Analytics - Serena H. Huang, Ph.D., who has led people analytics functions at companies including GE, PayPal and Kraft Heinz, joins me to discuss the common career paths observed in the people analytics field and how they have evolved over the years. KAZ HASSAN AND LUKE FARUGGIA - How to Bridge the Gap Between Customer and Employee Experience - What can HR learn from marketing's journey in using data, analytics and technology to understand and personalise the customer experience? How can we leverage these insights in HR to boost our employee experience initiatives? Kaz Hassan and Luke Faruggia join me to discuss these topics and more. THANK YOU Finally, this month I’d like to thank: Recruit CRM for nominating me as ‘The People Analytics Pioneer’ in their list of 50 Recruitment Influencers to Follow in 2024 Likewise, a huge thank you to 365Talents for including me as one of the Top 50 HR Influencers to Follow in 2024 Similarly, thanks to HRCap, Inc. for including me in their list of 10 HR Influencers who Provide Remarkable Insights The Social Craft (here) and The Talent Games (here) for also including me in their lists of HR and HR Tech leaders to follow. HRDConnect for quoting me in their article Data Literacy: A must-have for HR professionals in 2024. Gianni Giacomelli for including the Data Driven HR monthly in his list of seven must-read newsletters. HR Geckos for including Excellence in People Analytics as a book recommendation in their HR Bytes Newsletter for January 2024. Sebastian Szachnowski for including Excellence in People Analytics in his list of books to get better at people analytics. Leapsome for including the Digital HR Leaders podcast as one of its Top 10 HR Podcasts for 2024. Similarly, Alexandre Darbois for also including the Digital HR Leaders podcast as one of his 5 HR Podcasts. Melissa Meredith for using my 12 Opportunities for HR in 2024 article to highlight the importance of the HR-Finance partnership in building a thriving company. Bill Brown for also highlighting my 12 Opportunities for HR in 2024 article in his Eleven Trends Transforming the Future of Work in 2024. Mirro.io for including me as a contributor in their list of 15 HR Trends for 2024. Dhanesh K for including as one of his 10 Top HR Leaders to Follow. Lanteria HR for recommending me as one of their HR Experts to Follow in 2024. Semos Cloud for including my 12 Opportunities for HR in 2024 as part of their round-up of HR insights. Thomas Kohler for including my Best HR and People Analytics Articles of 2023 in their collection of HR resources to read. Thinkers360 for including me in their Top Voices EMEA 2023. ABOUT THE AUTHOR David Green ?? is a globally respected author, speaker, conference chair, and executive consultant on people analytics, data-driven HR and the future of work. As Managing Partner and Executive Director at Insight222, he has overall responsibility for the delivery of the Insight222 People Analytics Program, which supports the advancement of people analytics in over 90 global organisations. Prior to co-founding Insight222, David accumulated over 20 years experience in the human resources and people analytics fields, including as Global Director of People Analytics Solutions at IBM. As such, David has extensive experience in helping organisations increase value, impact and focus from the wise and ethical use of people analytics. David also hosts the Digital HR Leaders Podcast and is an instructor for Insight222's myHRfuture Academy. His book, co-authored with Jonathan Ferrar, Excellence in People Analytics: How to use Workforce Data to Create Business Value was published in the summer of 2021. SEE ME AT THESE EVENTS I'll be speaking about people analytics, the future of work, and data driven HR at a number of upcoming events in 2024: Feb 21 - Discover how Leading Companies shift People Analytics from insight to impact (Webinar) Feb 28 - People Analytics World 2024: Exploring the Potential of Analytics and AI in Employee Experience (Zurich) March 4-6 - Gloat Live! (New York) March 14-15 - Wharton People Analytics Conference (Philadelphia) April 24-25 - People Analytics World (London) May 7-9 - UNLEASH America (Las Vegas) September 24-26 - Insight222 Global Executive Retreat (Colorado, US) - exclusively for member organisations of the Insight222 People Analytics Program October 16-17 - UNLEASH World (Paris) More events will be added as they are confirmed.

Josh Bersin
2024年02月01日
Josh Bersin

HR Predictions for 2024: The Global Search For Productivity 2024年的HR预测强调了生产力和AI在商业和雇佣实践中的关键作用。这篇文章讨论了公司在动态的经济条件和不断变化的劳动力市场背景下，如何适应他们的人才管理和招聘策略。强调了员工赋权的增加，劳动力市场的变化，以及技能发展的重要性。文章还探讨了劳动力囤积、混合工作模式和员工激活等关键概念。此外，还涉及领导力挑战、薪酬公平、DEI计划，以及可能的四天工作周。一起来看Josh Bersin 带来新得见解 For the last two decades I’ve written about HR predictions, but this year is different. I see a year of shattering paradigms, changing every role in business. Not only will AI change every company and every job, but companies will embark on a relentless search for productivity. Think about where we have been. Following the 2008 financial crisis the world embarked on a zero-interest rate period of accelerating growth. Companies grew revenues, hired people, and watched their stock prices go up. Hiring continued at a fevered pace, leading to a record-breaking low unemployment rate of 3.5% at the end of 2019. Along came the pandemic, and within six months everything ground to a halt. Unemployment shot up to 15% in April of 2020, companies sent people home, and we re-engineered our products, services, and economy to deal with remote work, hybrid work arrangements, and a focus on mental health. Once the economy started up again (thanks to fiscal stimulus in the US), companies went back to the old cycle of hiring. But as interest rates rose and demand fell short we saw layoffs repeat, and over the last 18 months we’ve seen hiring, layoffs, and then hiring again to recover. Why the seesaw effect? CEOs and CFOs are operating in what we call the “Industrial Age” – hire to grow, then lay people off when things slow down. Well today, as we enter 2024, all that is different. We have to “hoard our talent,” invest in productivity, and redevelop and redeploy people for growth. We live in a world of 3.8% unemployment rate, labor shortages in almost every role, an increasingly empowered workforce, and a steady drumbeat of employee demands: demands for pay raises, flexibility, autonomy, and benefits. More than 20% of all US employees change jobs each year (2.3% per month), and almost half these changes are into new industries. Why is this the “new normal?” There are several reasons. First, as we discuss in our Global Workforce Intelligence research, industries are overlapping. Every company is a digital company; every company wants to build recurring revenue streams; and soon every company will run on AI. Careers that used to stay within an industry are morphing into “skills-based careers,” enabling people to jump around more easily than ever before. Second, employees (particularly young ones) feel empowered to act as they wish. They may quietly quit, “work their wage,” or take time out to change careers. They see a long runway in their lives (people live much longer than they did in the 1970s and 1980s) so they don’t mind leaving your company to go elsewhere. Third, the fertility rate continues to drop and labor shortages will increase. Japan, China, Germany, and the UK all have shrinking workforce populations. And in the next decade or so, most other developed economies will as well. Fourth, labor unions are on the rise. Thanks to a new philosophy in Washington, we’ve seen labor activity at Google, Amazon, Starbucks, GM, Ford, Stellantis, Kaiser, Disney, Netflix, and others. While union participation is less than 11% of the US workforce, it’s much higher in Europe and this trend is up. What does all this mean? There are many implications. First, companies will be even more focused on building a high-retention model for work (some call it “labor hoarding.”) This means improving pay equity, continuing hybrid work models, investing in human-centered leadership, and giving people opportunities for new careers inside the company. This is why talent marketplaces, skills-based development, and learning in the flow of work are so important. Second, CEOs have to understand the needs, desires, and demands of workers. As the latest Edelman study shows, career growth now tops the list, along with the desire for empowerment, impact, and trust. A new theme we call “employee activation” is here: listening to the workforce and delegating decisions about their work to their managers, teams, and leaders. Third, the traditional “hire to grow” model will not always work. In this post-industrial age we have to operate systemically, looking at internal development, job redesign, experience, and hiring together. This brings together the silo’d domains of recruiting, rewards and pay, learning & development, and org design. (Read our Systemic HR research for more.) What does “business performance” really mean? If you’re a CEO you want revenue growth, market share, profitability, and sustainability. If you can’t grow by hiring (and employees keep “activating” in odd ways), what choice do you have? It’s pretty simple: you automate and focus on productivity. Why do I see this as the big topic in 2024? For three big reasons. First, CEOs care about it. The 2024 PwC CEO survey found that CEO’s believe 40% of the work in their company is wasted productivity. As shocking as that sounds, it rings true to me: too many emails, too many meetings, messy hiring process, bureaucratic performance management, and more. (HR owns some of these problems.) Second, AI enables it. AI is designed to improve white-collar productivity. (Most automation in the past helped blue or gray collar workers.) Generative AI lets us find information more quickly, understand trends and outliers, train ourselves and learn, and clean up the mess of documents, workflows, portals, and back office compliance and administration systems we carry around like burdens. Third, we’re going to need it. How will you grow when it’s so hard to find people? Time to hire went up by almost 20% last year and the job market is getting even tougher. Can you compete with Google or OpenAI for tech skills? Internal development, retooling, and automation projects are the answer. And with Generative AI, the opportunities are everywhere. What does all this mean for HR? Well as I describe in the HR Predictions, we have a lot of issues to address. We have to accelerate our shift to a dynamic job and organization structure. We have to get focused and pragmatic about skills. We have to rethink “employee experience” and deal with what we call “employee activation.” And we are going to have to modernize our HR Tech, our recruiting, and our L&D systems to leverage AI and make these systems more useful. Our HR teams will be AI-powered too. As our Galileo™ customers already tell us, a well-architected “expert assistant” can revolutionize how HR people work. We can become “full-stack” HR professionals, find data about our teams in seconds instead of weeks, and share HR, leadership, and management practices with line leaders in seconds. (Galileo is being used as a management coach in some of the world’s largest companies.) There are some other changes as well. As the company gets focused on “growth through productivity,” we have to think about the 4-day week, how we institutionalize hybrid work, and how we connect and support remote workers in a far more effective way. We have to refocus on leadership development, spend more time and money on first line managers, and continue to invest in culture and inclusion. We have to simplify and rethink performance management, and we have to solve the vexing problem of pay-equity. And there’s more. DEI programs have to get embedded in the business (the days of the HR DEI Police are over). We have to clean up our employee data so our AI and talent intelligence systems are accurate and trustworthy. And we have to shift our thinking from “supporting the business” to “being a valued consultant” and productizing our HR offerings, as our Systemic HR research points out. All this is detailed in our new 40-page report “HR Predictions for 2024,” launching this week, including a series of Action Plans to help you think through all these issues. And let me remind you of a big idea. Productivity is why HR departments exist. Everything we do, from hiring to coaching to development to org design, is only successful if it helps the company grow. As experts in turnover, engagement, skills, and leadership, we in HR have make people and the organization productive every day. 2024 is a year to focus on this higher mission. One final thing: taking care of yourself. The report has 15 detailed predictions, each with a series of action steps to consider. The last one is really for you: focus on the skills and leadership of HR. We, as stewards of the people-processes, have to focus on our own capabilities. 2024 will be a year to grow, learn, and work as a team. If we deal with these 15 issues well, we’ll help our companies thrive in the year ahead. Details on the Josh Bersin Predictions The predictions study is our most widely-read report each year. It includes a detailed summary of all our research and discusses fifteen essential issues for CEOs, CHROs, and HR professionals. It will be available in the following forms: Webinar and launch on January 24: Register Here (replays will be available) Infographic with details: Available on January 24. Microlearning course on Predictions: Available on January 24. Detailed Report and Action Guide: Available to Corporate Members and Josh Bersin Academy Members (JBA). (Note you can join the JBA for $495 per year and that includes our entire academy of tools, resources, certificate courses, and SuperClasses in HR.)

Josh Bersin
2024年01月19日

Josh Bersin

The best HR & People Analytics articles of 2023 (Part 2 of 2) Last week, I published Part 1 of the 10th annual compilation of my 60 best resources on people analytics and HR of 2022. Thanks to all of those who shared, commented on and reposted Part 1. It is much appreciated. Part 2, herein, covers resources on the following five topics: vi) the evolution of HR, HR operating models and the CHRO, vii) building a data driven culture in HR, viii) workforce planning, skills, and talent marketplace, ix) leadership and culture, and x) diversity, equity, inclusion and belonging. To recap, Part 1 covered five topics: i) the future of work and people strategy, ii) workplace design and strategy, iii) AI and the world of work, iv) people analytics, and v) employee experience, listening and wellbeing. You can also catch up with previous editions for the last decade: 2014, 2015, 2016 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 (Part 1 and Part 2). I hope you enjoy reading the selections for 2023. If you do, please subscribe to my weekly Digital HR Leaders newsletter, which is published every Tuesday via Insight222, and tune in to the Digital HR Leaders podcast, which returns on January 16 with a special episode featuring Dawn Klinghoffer, Thomas Hedegaard Rasmussen, and Jeremy Shapiro on the outlook for people analytics in 2024. vi) THE EVOLUTION OF HR, HR OPERATING MODELS AND THE CHRO ROLE DAVE ULRICH, JOE GROCHOWSKI, NORM SMALLWOOD, JOE HANSON, AND ERNESTO USCHER - What Makes an Effective HR Function? An HR Value Logic A glut of research was published in 2023 on the evolution of the HR operating model from the likes of McKinsey, Deloitte and Mercer. Most lean on the pioneering work of Dave Ulrich and his colleagues back in 1995, in what is now commonly referred to as the ‘Ulrich model’. As such, this immensely insightful article by Dave and his colleagues at RBL: Joe Grochowski, Norm Smallwood, Joseph Hanson, and Ernesto Uscher is a must-read for anyone reviewing their HR operating model. The article defines the value HR provides to stakeholders, analyses some of the recent research on HR operating models, couples this with The RBL Group’s own research, and provides guidance on steps to a more effective HR function (see FIG 24) and a diagnostic of ten dimensions of HR effectiveness (see FIG 25) to improve the value HR can create. A tour de force. HR is not about HR but about the value HR creates for stakeholders FIG 24: Steps To An Effective HR Function? (Source: The RBL Group) FIG 25: Assessment of Ten Dimensions of HR Effectiveness (Source: The RBL Group) SANDRA DURTH, NEEL GANDHI, ASMUS KOMM, AND FLORIAN POLLNER – HR’S new operating model: A new approach to human resources Excellent analysis from McKinsey based on qualitative interviews with over 100 chief human resources officers on how the HR operating model is changing to drive value in today’s volatile business environment. In the article the team of Sandra Durth, Neel Gandhi, Asmus Komm, and Florian Pollner identify and describe five HR operating model archetypes (see FIG 26). The authors explain how these operating models are premised on eight innovation shifts, with each archetype typically based on one major innovation shift and supported by a few minor ones. In large, diversified organizations, CHROs may find that different archetypes fit the differentiated needs of specific businesses better and may adopt a combination of HR operating models. FIG 26: Five emerging HR operating models (Source: McKinsey) MARC EFFRON | TALENT STRATEGY GROUP – HR Operating Model Report 2023 There is a wealth of insights from Marc Effron and his team at The Talent Strategy Group in their report on how more than 200 companies are structuring and operationalising HR. Insights include: (1) 86% of CHROs report to the CEO, which certainly helps answer the perennial ‘seat at the table’ question, (2) HR is growing across all parts of the function - for example, the support ratio for HRBPs to employees has decreased, (3) From a people analytics perspective, the study finds that 35% of people analytics leaders report to the CHRO, which mirrors the rise we have seen in our Insight222 People Analytics Trends researchyear on year since 2020, and (4) However, as the report states: The fact that People Analytics reports more frequently to Shared Services and Other HR Functions than to the CHRO or Talent Management suggests a potential misunderstanding of the strategic role of the function. It may also, however, suggest that the COE is providing more reporting and less true analytics in many organizations. FIG 27: CoE reporting lines to the CHRO (Source: Talent Strategy Group, HR Operating Model Report 2023) KATHI ENDERES - Building the Dynamic Organization: Critical for the Post-Industrial Era Kathi Enderes breaks down findings from research she and Josh Bersin have conducted with Gloat. It highlights that instead of designing a company around jobs, Dynamic Organizations instead organise around people and skills. Kathi’s article provides a framework (see FIG 28), a maturity model, and data on the impact of Dynamic Organizations. I recommend reading this alongside the subsequent research published by Josh and Kathi on Systemic HR, which Josh summarises in this podcast. FIG 28: A framework for a Dynamic Organization (Source: Josh Bersin Company) ELLYN SHOOK, YUSUF TAYOB, AND LAURIE HENNEBORN - The CHRO as a growth executive Article | Full Report Research by Accenture finds that by unlocking the growth combination of data, technology and people, companies can generate a premium of up to 11% on top-line productivity, with the people element making up 7% of that alone. However, the study also finds that just 5% of large, global organisations are realising this. The spearhead of the companies that are is a new breed of CHRO – the ‘high-res CHRO’ - one that is stepping up to lead their C-suite peers in connecting data, technology and people and cultivating collaboration. The report details how to spot and support High-Res CHROs, how they effect change, and provides guidance on the way forward. The report is co-authored by Ellyn Shook, Yusuf Tayob, and Laurie Henneborn, MSLIS, and features contributions from a number of CHROs including Giuseppe Addezio, Christine Deputy , Kerry Dryburgh, Lauren Rusckowski Duprey, Darrell Ford, Francine Katsoudas, and Donna Morris. FIG 29: Three things High-Res CHROs do differently to put the forces of change to work (Source: Accenture) JONATHAN GORDIN, SHARI CHERNACK, KAREN SHELLENBACK, AND YAMILE BRUZZA | MERCER - Evolving the CHRO role in a rapidly changing world of work 41 percent of CHROs wish they had had a greater depth of knowledge in people analytics before stepping into their roles. That is a standout finding from Mercer’s 2023 CHRO report. Many CHROs also conceded that they wish they had assumed the role with a greater understanding of business and strategy. The report, by Jonathan Gordin, Shari Chernack, Karen Shellenback, and Yamile Bruzza, also digs into the growing importance of technology and analytics including the need for CHROs and their leadership teams to upskill themselves and act as role-models in areas such as data literacy, how the CHRO role will evolve (see also FIG 30), actions to develop HR leaders, and key attributes of CHROs. The ability to understand the business you are in is critical to success as a CHRO — the people strategy must be an extension of the business strategy FIG 30: How the CHRO role will evolve (Source: Mercer) ROB BRINER - Aligning HR with the business through the evidence-based HR process Rob Briner makes the case for evidence-based practice and how it applies to HR, explaining what it is and why it is effective. Rob breaks down six key steps in the evidence-based HR process (see FIG 31). He then applies the evidence-based approach to a case study to understand and solve high employee turnover. FIG 31: The Evidence-Based HR Process (Source: Rob Briner) vii) BUILDING A DATA-DRIVEN CULTURE IN HR NAOMI VERGHESE AND JONATHAN FERRAR - Upskilling the HR Profession: Building Data Literacy at Scale Article | Full Report In conversations I have with chief human resources officers, people analytics leaders and other senior human resources executives, improving the data literacy of HR professionals continues to be a challenge. A study by my Insight222 colleagues Naomi Verghese and Jonathan Ferrar, highlights four key findings to support organisations seeking to build data literacy in HR at scale: (1) Role-modelling by the CHRO and HRLT is essential (see FIG 32), (2) responsibility for upskilling should sit with the people analytics leader, (3) Five skills form the core of data literacy for HR, and (4) Companies should invest appropriately for a multi-year upskilling programme of between $600 and $800 per HR full-time equivalent. Download the full report here. FIG 32: Source: Upskilling the HR Profession: Building Data Literacy at Scale (Source: Insight222) MADHURA CHAKRABARTI AND TAMARA MCBRIDE - The analytics escape room game: On being fast followers As Madhura Chakrabarti, PhD and Tamara McBride state: “Upskilling HR in data fluency was always an important part of our People Insights and Analytics roadmap at Syngenta.” Their article outlines the journey Syngenta has taken over the last three years, which has seen over 200 participants complete their ‘analysis paralysis’ simulation. Madhura and Tamara share their three key lessons in relation to building a data driven culture in HR: (1) Go beyond HR (“our non-HR colleagues did a wonderful job in spreading the word internally whereby demand started accelerating within and outside HR”), (2) Make it part of a bigger journey (see FIG 33), and (3) Shift to a virtual experience but keep the in-person offering alive when needed. For more from Madhura on how Syngenta is building a data driven culture in HR, I recommend listening to her discussion with me on the Digital HR Leaders podcast: How Syngenta Successfully Upskilled Their HR Function Into Data-Literacy. FIG 33: Building data fluency in HR at Syngenta (Source: Madhura Chakrabarti and Tamara McBride) JAAP VELDKAMP AND HELEEN GOET - How to determine your success KPIs in HR Jaap Veldkamp and Heleen Goet describe the process followed at ABN Amro for establishing a link between each HR service and its impact on business outcomes. It outlines a ‘define your success’ workshop conducted between the people analytics team and HR at the bank to align each service to output and outcomes (see example in FIG 34). The article also highlights two benefits of this approach: (1) It leads to better collaboration between various teams in HR. (2) It magnifies the broader advisory role of people analytics. FIG 34: Source: Jaap Veldkamp and Heleen Goet RJ MILNOR - 10 Metrics to Unlock Value in Your Organization | ERIC LESSER AND CHARIS CHAMBERS - Key HR metrics for chief human resources officers Two insightful articles highlighting progressive HR metrics. (1) RJ Milnor presents ten people metrics focused on help companies and HR leaders to unlock value (rather than cut costs). (2) Eric Lesser and Charis Chambers highlight five critical areas where CHROs need access to key HR metrics, data, and insights on demand to provide a snapshot of the current state of the work, workforce, and workplace (see FIG 35). FIG 35: Five key areas of insights and metrics for CHROs (Source: Deloitte) BRENT DYKES - Elephant In The Room: Data Storytelling Is More Than Just Data Visualization Brent Dykes uses the Buddhist parable of the Elephant and the Blind Men to highlight the overemphasis typically placed on the visualisation element of data storytelling at the expense of the two other key components: facts (from data) and a storyline (narrative) – see FIG 36. Brent’s article breaks down each of these three elements, their relationship to each other, and provides guidance on how to shift from a ‘visualization-centric view’ to a ‘balanced view’. A must-read for anyone in the people analytics field, as well as HR professionals looking to hone their data storytelling skills. FIG 36: What is data storytelling (Top), How to shift data storytelling from a visualization-centric to a balanced view (Bottom) (Source: Brent Dykes) viii) WORKFORCE PLANNING, SKILLS, AND TALENT MARKETPLACE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM - The Future of Jobs Report 2023 The fourth edition of the World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report is an absolute treasure trove of data, insights, and visualisations based on data from 803 companies and 11.3m workers. The report explores how jobs and skills will evolve over the next five years, and how the Fourth Industrial Revolution will continue to shape the world of work. There are too many highlights to list them all here are some standout ones for me: (1) 23% of jobs are expected to change by 2027, with 69 million new jobs created and 83 million eliminated (see FIG 37), (2) 44% of individual worker skills will need to be updated by 2027, (3) The three key drivers of job change are the green transition (driving growth), technology (driving growth and decline), and the economic outlook (driving decline), and (4) Analytical thinking and creative thinking are regarded as the top two in-demand skills of 2023. Kudos to the authors of the report: Attilio Di Battista, Sam Grayling, Elselot Hasselaar, Till Alexander Leopold, Ricky LI, Mark Rayner and Saadia Zahidi. FIG 37: 23% of today’s jobs will change by 2027 (Source: World Economic Forum) AMY WEBB - How to Prepare for a GenAI Future You Can’t Predict Futurist Amy Webb outlines a framework to help leaders anticipate how — and when — their workforce will need to change in order to leverage AI (see FIG 38). The framework should help those involved in workforce planning partner with leaders to develop scenarios for the future of the business. Moreover, Amy also provides a three-step guide for leaders to navigate the current uncertainty: (1) Temper expectations about what generative AI can and will do for your business. (2) Evaluate what data your company is generating and how it would today, and in the future, be used by generative AI. (3) When it comes to AI, leaders must shift their focus from the bottom line to top line. FIG 38: The IDEA Framework (Source: Amy Webb) DELOITTE - Managing workforce risk in an era of unpredictability and disruption A hugely insightful collaboration between Deloitte and Harvard Professor Joe Fuller, which breaks down the increasing number of risks facing organisations in our disruptive world, the impact these have on the workforce, and what some leading companies are doing to help mitigate these risks. The article presents a framework for workforce risk (see FIG 39) as well as findings from a survey of 875 C-suite leaders, executives, and independent board members to explore how senior leaders view and address workforce risk. Findings include that most companies don’t have a definition nor expertise on workforce risk, those companies that do address workforce risk focus on short-term objectives rather than strategically planning for tomorrow’s challenges, and boards and C-suites provide limited oversight over workforce risk. The research does identify Pioneers – around one in ten leaders that view workforce risk factors more holistically and spread responsibility for effectively measuring and managing these risks throughout the organisation. (Authors: Joseph Fuller, Michael Griffiths, Reem J., Michael Stephan, Carey Oven, Keri Calagna, Robin Jones, Susan Cantrell, Zac Shaw, and George Fackler). To perform at their best and meet evolving business needs, organizations should have a workforce planning process that helps establish the right people in the right place at the right time, for the right cost. To accomplish that, they should plan for succession, cultivate new talent pipelines, and deploy workers against emerging business priorities fluidly. FIG 39: A framework for workforce risk (Source: Deloitte) ROBERT MOTION AND COLE NAPPER - What’s Old is New: The Quest for Excellence in Workforce Planning As Robert Motion and Cole Napper highlight in their treatise on the topic, workforce planning is both an art and a science that has its root in data and strategy. Their article offers six lessons on the topic: (1). Strategy is hard, but that doesn’t make WFP impossible. (2) Workforce planning can both help fight and respond to the Wall Street earnings cycle pressure. (3) Process is necessary, but don’t overdo it. (4) Analytics is and will continue to be king. (5) Winning the war for talent requires Talent Intelligence. (6) We can’t fall in love with our own ideas. As WFP practitioners, influencing with data is THE key to gaining credibility with the business. It shows that WFP is not “touchy-freely HR”, but data-driven and quantified. RICHARD ROSENOW - The SOAPI Framework - A New Lens for Modern Workforce Planning Richard Rosenow is one of the best thinkers in our field and demonstrates it with his paper for One Model introducing his SOAPI framework for workforce planning. As he explains, it is a methodology that offers a structured method to break workforce planning into component parts. Each component represents a pillar, collectively forming the discipline of workforce planning. These are: (1) Strategy, (2) Operations (3) Analytics, (4) Planning, and (5) Intelligence. The paper breaks each of these down, and details what happens if one of these pillars is missing (see FIG 40). FIG 40: Source - Richard Rosenow, One Model MERCER – Building and sustaining a thriving Talent Marketplace The Talent Marketplace is one of the hottest topics in the field of talent management, which makes this report by Mercer as timely as it is important. The report is informed by a survey, interviews with early adopters, and best practices for realising the vast potential of a talent marketplace. The report covers: (1) The business case, (2) How companies can use and launch talent marketplaces, (3) Outcomes and ROI realised by early adopters including Unilever, (4) Guidance on the change management required to achieve stakeholder alignment, and (5) Tips to get started and sustain momentum. Kudos to the authors: Ravin Jesuthasan, CFA, FRSA, Rupali Gupta, Chitralekha Singh, Brian Fisher, Marcus Downing, Paul Habgood, Nicole Peichl, Lewis Garrad, and Wan Yee Choo. For more on talent marketplace, I recommend listening to two 2023 episodes of the Digital HR Leaders podcast with Tanuj Kapilashrami (How Standard Chartered is Unlocking the Power of Skills in the Workplace) as well as Jeff Schwartz and Jeroen Wels (Navigating the Talent Marketplace of the Future). Implementing a talent marketplace requires a radical rethink of work itself and involves far more than implementing a new technology. FIG 41: Finding the sweet spot for success with talent marketplaces BO COWGILL, JONATHAN M.V. DAVIS, B. PABLO MONTAGNES, PATRYK PERKOWSKI, AND BETTINA HAMMER - How to Design an Internal Talent Marketplace Between them Bo Cowgill, Jonathan Davis, Pablo Montagnes, Patryk Perkowski, and Bettina Hammer have designed, implemented, and evaluated internal talent marketplaces (ITMs) for more than a decade in the private, non-profit, and public sectors, with partners across the globe. In their article for Harvard Business Review, they break down the four key benefits of ITMs: (1) Reduced replacement costs with examples from Teach for America and Schneider Electric, (2) Better placement within a large workforce with an example from the US Department of Defense, (3) More opportunities for generalists, and (4) Better aggregation of insights – with both the latter two documenting examples from Google. The authors explain how to build (e.g. technology, change, culture and data) and optimise (e.g. nudges, incentives and executive oversight) ITMs, connect their successful adoption to best practices and recommend ways to align employees’ preferences with the company’s needs. Companies that fare the best with internal talent marketplaces are in industries with high worker-replacement costs and have employees who tend to be generalists. ix) LEADERSHIP AND CULTURE GEORGE WESTERMAN AND ABBIE LUNDBERG - Why Companies Should Help Every Employee Chart a Career Path Multiple studies find that lack of career advancement is the top reason employees provide for leaving their employers. Perhaps not surprisingly George Westerman and Abbie Lundberg found in their previous research a gap between the career development support many companies claim to provide and the lived experience of the typical worker. In their new article, the authors highlight two false narratives of career development that they find are prominent in many companies: “managers are responsible to develop their employees’ careers” and “we empower employees to own their career development.” While these ideals sound good, the reality is somewhat different. The authors then outline a career development process comprised of three elements designed to work for employees at all levels of the organisation and bring these to life with a number of case studies. The three elements are: (1) Make opportunities and pathways visible, (2) Provide opportunities to learn and practice, and (3) Deliver rich feedback and coaching. Leaders must do much more to help employees see a future with the company and a path to advance toward that future. McKINSEY - Performance through people: Transforming human capital into competitive advantage When organisations invest in employees, the returns are not always quantifiable. Yet some firms are much more effective than others at turning human capital into a tangible competitive advantage, according to research by McKinsey. The study finds that the best companies – ‘People + Performance (P&P) Winners’ – are good at developing their workforce and delivering outstanding financial performance. The report details how P+P Winners possess a distinctive organisational signature (see FIG 42): they are more resilient, better at attracting, developing and retaining talent, have more effective leadership and more inclusive cultures. The report has a litany of insights across its 40 pages, including a blueprint on how companies can transform their organisational capital. (Authors: Anu Madgavkar, Bill Schaninger, Dana Maor, Olivia White, Sven Smit, Hamid H. Samandari, Jonathan Woetzel, Davis Carlin, and Kanmani Chockalingam.) P+P Winners deliver a better workplace experience, and they are engines of upward mobility for the employees who pass through them FIG 42: P&P Winners possess a distinctive organisational signature (Source: McKinsey Global Institute) CONSTANCE NOONAN HADLEY, MARK MORTENSEN, AND AMY EDMONDSON - Make It Safe for Employees to Speak Up — Especially in Risky Times In their article for Harvard Business Review, Connie Noonan Hadley, Mark Mortensen, and Amy Edmondson emphasise the importance of fostering a culture of psychological safety within organisations. They argue that during challenging and uncertain times, such as crises or periods of change, employees need an environment where they feel comfortable expressing their concerns, ideas, and dissenting opinions. The article provides practical steps for leaders to create psychological safety, such as encouraging open dialogue, actively listening, and addressing biases that may inhibit honest communication. Constance, Mark and Amy highlight the benefits of fostering a culture where employees feel safe to speak up, including improved decision-making, innovation, and employee well-being. Psychological safety — the belief that one can speak up without risk of punishment or humiliation — is what enables employees to use their voices, and it’s more important than ever that leaders build it. FIG 43: Why employees are reluctant to use their voices (Source: Constance Noonan Hadley, Mark Mortensen, and Amy Edmondson) PER HUGANDER - Take a Skills-Based Approach to Culture Change A persuasive article on how taking a skills-based approach to culture change can lead to lasting positive changes in behaviour and organisational performance. Drawing from a Harvard case study of SEB, a Nordic bank, Hugander Per highlights the successful application of the late, great Edgar Schein's Organizational Culture Model (see FIG 44). By emphasising the development of specific skills like active listening, coaching, and empathetic communication among its leaders, SEB achieved a cultural transformation characterised by collaboration and openness. This approach aligns culture change efforts with tangible behaviours, ensuring more effective and enduring transformations within organisations. FIG 44: Edgar Schein’s Organizational Culture Model (Source: MIT Sloan Management Review) TRACY THURKOW AND ADÉLAÏDE HUBERT - Organizations Don't Change Behavior, People Do Tracy Thurkow and Adélaïde Hubert-Verley write about the role behavioural science can play in any successful transformation or change management initiative: “Behavioral science can help you create a change-embracing environment through nudges, feedback loops, and reinforcement.” Their article provides a timely reminder that organisations cannot change behaviour; only people can. To achieve successful behaviour change they argue, individuals need to be motivated and equipped with the necessary skills and resources. Organisations should focus on creating a culture that supports and encourages the desired behaviour change, providing clear guidance and incentives for individuals, and enabling them to practice and refine their new behaviours over time (see FIG 45). Behavioral science helps to inspire and engage people in embracing change FIG 45: Making the behaviour possible requires removing frictions and implementing enablers, signals, and reinforcers (Source: Bain & Company) JONATHAN KNOWLES, B. TOM HUNSAKER, AND MELANIE HUGHES – The Role of Culture in Enabling Change While culture is often described as “how we do things around here”, Jonathan Knowles, Dr. Tom Hunsaker, and Melanie Hughes posit in their article that “It’s more helpful to think of culture as the nervous system of an organization.” They highlight that one of the most important responsibilities of HR is to analyse the aspects of culture that are enabling or hindering performance. They proceed to explain that the first step is to investigate the type of change the team, business unit or organisation requires, and then document three approaches to making such changes: (1) Reinforce magnitude. (2) Reimagine activity. (3) Rethink direction (see also FIG 46) FIG 46: Effective Cultures are Context Adaptive (Source: Knowles et al) TOMAS CHAMORRO-PREMUZIC - How to Strengthen Your Curiosity Muscle The opening keynote at the recent Workday Rising EMEA event in Barcelona by Dr Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic was based on his recently published book, I, Human: AI, Automation, and the Quest to Reclaim What Makes Us Unique, which I highly recommend. Tomas is a prolific writer, and in one of his recent articles, for Harvard Business Review, he writes about one of the most critical and sought after dimensions of talent: curiosity – a skill that is vital for leadership effectiveness, learning, and career development. In the article, Tomas shares five recommendations to develop our curiosity muscle: (1) Ditch all excuses. (2) Find the right angle. (3) Change your routine. (4) Experiment. (5) When bored, just switch. For more from Tomas, please tune in to his recent conversation with me on the Digital HR Leaders podcast: How AI Can Unlock Human Potential and Make Work More Meaningful. While we may not know what tomorrow’s jobs will be, employees’ motivation and ability to upskill and reskill for those jobs will significantly increase if they are curious. STACIA GARR AND PRIYANKA MEHROTRA - What’s Holding Back Manager Effectiveness, and How to Fix It While manager effectiveness is a top priority for leaders and HR teams, research by Stacia Sherman Garr and Priyanka Mehrotra for RedThread Research finds that organisational support for managers is on the wane. Based on analysis of a survey of more than 700 employees across a wide range of industries, Stacia and Priyanka identified seven practices that are most important in driving manager effectiveness (see FIG 47) – four practices under the control of managers themselves, and three under the auspices of senior leaders and HR. The article also details three key actions organisations — particularly senior leaders and HR teams — can take to address gaps in support and develop more effective managers. FIG 47: Seven factors driving manager effectiveness (Source: RedThread Research) EMILY FIELD, BRYAN HANCOCK, AND BILL SCHANINGER - Don’t Eliminate Your Middle Managers | EMILY FIELD, BRYAN HANCOCK, STEPHANIE SMALLETS, AND BROOKE WEDDLE - Investing in middle managers pays off—literally Two articles featuring insights from one of the best books of 2023: Power to the Middle: Why Managers Hold the Keys to the Future of Work authored by Bill Schaninger, Ph.D., Bryan Hancock. The first provides a clarion call to organisations that rather than viewing middle management as ripe for cutting in turbulent times they should instead reimagine the role of the middle manager, helping them to fully understand their value, and then train, coach, and inspire them to realise their potential as organisational linchpins. The second article, co-authored with Stephanie Smallets, Ph.D. and Brooke Weddle, provides data highlighting that organisations with more top-performing middle managers have much better financial outcomes (see FIG 48). The article also provides five steps to strengthening middle manager performance: (1) Optimising organisational ‘spans’, (2) Resetting manager roles, (3) Pivoting to capability building, (4) Drilling down into manager experience, and (5) Building in accountability mechanisms. Human capital is at least as important as financial capital, and middle managers, who recruit and develop an organization’s employees, are the most important asset of all—essential to navigating rapid, complex change. They can make work more meaningful, interesting, and productive, and they’re crucial for true organizational transformation. FIG 48: Organisations whose managers exhibit strong behaviours realise better bottom-line performance (Source: McKinsey) x) DIVERSITY, EQUITY, INCLUSION AND BELONGING McKINSEY - Diversity matters even more: The case for holistic impact The fourth report in a McKinsey series stretching back to 2015, investigating the business case for diversity. The main takeaway is that the 2023 study finds that the business case is the strongest it has been yet with leadership diversity being convincingly associated with business performance, societal impact and employee experience (see FIG 49). The full 52 page report details case studies from the likes of IHG Hotels & Resorts, DHL Group, and Air New Zealand, as well as presenting five levers for change for moving from commitment to action. (Authors: Dame Vivian Hunt, Sundiatu Dixon-Fyle, Celia Huber, Maria del Mar Martinez, Sara Prince, and Ashley Thomas.) FIG 49: The business case for diversity on executive teams and financial outperformance (Source: McKinsey) DONALD SULL AND CHARLES SULL - The Toxic Culture Gap Shows Companies Are Failing Women Donald Sull and Charlie Sull continue their fascinating work on toxic culture (see previous articles here) by this time focusing on research that finds women are 41% more likely to experience toxic workplace culture than men (see FIG 50). The article provides a number of cuts, powerful visualisations and analysis of the data including possible reasons why women are more likely to cite toxic culture, the elements that drive the toxic culture gender gap, and how the gap varies by industry and occupation. FIG 50: Toxic Culture Is the Largest Culture Gap Between Women and Men (Source: Culture X) JAMES ROOT, ANDREW SCHWEDEL, MIKE HASLETT, AND NICOLE BITLER - Better with Age: The Rising Importance of Older Workers Compelling research from Bain & Company highlighting that in the G7 group of countries, older workers will exceed a quarter of the workforce by 2031 (see FIG 20). Despite this shift, the study also finds that only a small number of organisations have programs in place to integrate older workers into their talent systems. As well as providing compelling data and visualisations on this trend, the authors (James Root, Andrew Schwedel, Mike Haslett, and Nicole Bitler Kuehnle) provide guidance on three steps to empower older workers: (1) Retain and recruit older workers by understanding what motivates them at work. (2) Reskill them for your next 10 years of capability needs. (3) Respect their strengths and allow them to do what they do best. Creating roles that benefit both older workers and the company is not just the right thing to do, it’s also a business imperative. FIG 51: Share of workers age 55 and older in 2011, 2021 and 2031 (Source: Bain & Company) LILY ZHENG - To Make Lasting Progress on DEI, Measure Outcomes Organisations that are generating value through diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) understand the importance of metrics and KPIs, but even some of these struggle to identify the right ones. The objective of Lily Zheng’s article in Harvard Business Review is to provide guidance to companies seeking to make tangible and lasting progress on DEI goals. Three actions are recommended related to tracking metrics. (1) Recognise the importance of outcome metrics beyond demographics. (2) For each category that you choose to measure, develop a theory of change to identify tailored proxy metrics. (3) To ensure that these findings result in lasting outcomes, create a plan in advance for using data to follow up and take action. Thanks to Frances Frei for highlighting Lily’s excellent article. EDWARD CHANG, ERIKA KIRGIOS, JAMES ELFER, KATRYN WRIGHT, AND GUUSJE LINDEMANN - Why You Should Start A/B Testing Your DEI Initiatives In their article, Edward Chang, Erika Kirgios, James Elfer, Katryn Wright, and Guusje Lindemann draw on their experience as academics and consultants who have studied the issue extensively, to present the benefits of targeted A/B testing for DEI initiatives. The authors cite company examples that they’ve been involved with, including one with Ericsson to improve internal mobility amongst female employees. They also offer practical guidance for companies interested in doing testing of their own. The more DEI experiments you conduct, the more you’ll learn about what works and what doesn’t, and the faster you’ll make progress on equality at work. FROM MY DESK Below are another selection of six articles I penned or co-penned in 2023. Part 1 contains seven other articles I authored in 2023. 12 Opportunities for HR in 2024 – As the title suggests, this article draws on our research at Insight222 and other studies to document 12 opportunities for HR to continue its progress from support function to strategic partner in 2024 (see also FIG 52). FIG 52: 12 Opportunities for HR in 2024 (Source: David Green) Exploring the Future of Skill-based Organisations - Andreas De Neve ?, CEO at TechWolf, shares insights with me on how HR leaders can make an impact on their business by addressing skill shortages and creating the foundation of a skill-based organisation. 10 Key Learnings from the Wharton People Analytics Conference 2023 - In this article, I share ten key learnings from the 2023 Wharton People Analytics Conference. For more on this event, I recommend listening to this episode of the Digital HR Leaders podcast, which was recored at Wharton PAC and features Prasad Setty and Dawn Klinghoffer as well as contributions from: Tanu Dixit, Matthew Malter Cohen, Sandy Zou, Jessica Smith, Ayanna Matlock, and Garima Khator: People Analytics, Now and the Future: Insights from Wharton PAC. Data democratization: David Green on upskilling HR to become data-driven - An interview with Benjamin Broomfield of HRD Connect where I shared Insight222 research on leading practices for data-driven HR, from communities of practice to data literacy, interpretation, and storytelling. What’s Wrong with People Data? - An interview with Jennifer E. Sigler, PhD, author of TI PEOPLE’s and FOUNT Global, Inc.’s 2022 The State of Employee Experience report to discuss the issues identified in the study in relation to people data. These centred on two key findings: HR is using data that isn’t really suited to improving EX, and they’re taking too much responsibility for EX. The Importance of Ethics in People Analytics for Leading Companies - Naomi Verghese and I explore the critical topic of ethics, which is one of the eight characteristics of Leading Companies in People Analytics identified in the 2023 Insight222 People Analytics Trends study. In the article, Naomi and I outline three key practices on ethics adopted by Leading Companies in their people analytics work. (1) Strong Ethical Principles - including the development of an Ethics Charter. (2) Open Communication – including the ‘Fair Exchange of Value’. (3) Ethics Oversight – including the institution of an ethics and privacy council. The “Fair Exchange of Value” is a key mantra for people analytics teams. If employees understand how their data will be used and see the benefit, it is far more likely that they will contribute data. THE DIGITAL HR LEADERS PODCAST In addition, we published 40 episodes of the Digital HR Leaders Podcast in 2023! A huge thank you to all the guest and sponsors, who in order of appearance were: Diane Gherson Dave Ulrich Ian Bailie Susan Cantrell Michael Griffiths Tanuj Kapilashrami Amy Gallo Jeroen Wels Jeff Schwartz Gloat Dr Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic Carmen Whitney Orr Phil Willburn Daniela Seabrook Caroline O'Reilly Workday Lauren Guthrie Christina Norris-Watts Doug Shagam Oliver Shaw Alexis Fink Don Miller Jesse Jacks Orgvue Aashish Sharma Dr. Ella F. Washington Ian White Aaron Falcione Prasad Setty Dawn Klinghoffer ChartHop Heather E. McGowan ?️??️⚧️ Karen Dillon Rob Cross Philip Arkcoll Ian OKeefe Elizabeth J. Altman Robin Jones Worklytics Lexy Martin Yves Van Durme Paul Rubenstein Ashish Pant Wendy Cunningham Peter Meyler Visier Inc. Nick Dalton Piyush Mehta Alicia Roach Chris Hare Nick Bloom Alex Browne eQ8 Jacob Morgan Madeline Laurano Sarah Reynolds Paulo Pisano Hebba Youssef and HiBob. THANK YOU Thanks to all the authors and contributors featured here in Part 2, and also in Part 1 (available on January 14) as well as across the monthly collections from 2023 – see January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November and December - your passion, knowledge and expertise continues to inspire. Thanks also to my colleagues at Insight222, the guests and sponsors of the Digital HR Leaders Podcast in 2023 and the great many of you that share and engage with the content I share. It’s much appreciated. I wish you all well for a happy, healthy, and successful 2024. ABOUT THE AUTHOR David Green ?? is a globally respected author, speaker, conference chair, and executive consultant on people analytics, data-driven HR and the future of work. As Managing Partner and Executive Director at Insight222, he has overall responsibility for the delivery of the Insight222 People Analytics Program, which supports the advancement of people analytics in over 90 global organisations. Prior to co-founding Insight222, David accumulated over 20 years experience in the human resources and people analytics fields, including as Global Director of People Analytics Solutions at IBM. As such, David has extensive experience in helping organisations increase value, impact and focus from the wise and ethical use of people analytics. David also hosts the Digital HR Leaders Podcast and is an instructor for Insight222's myHRfuture Academy. His book, co-authored with Jonathan Ferrar, Excellence in People Analytics: How to use Workforce Data to Create Business Value was published in the summer of 2021. SEE ME AT THESE EVENTS I'll be speaking about people analytics, the future of work, and data driven HR at a number of upcoming events in 2024: Jan 25 - The Strategic Agenda for HR in 2025 (webinar - register here) Feb 28 - People Analytics World 2024: Exploring the Potential of Analytics and AI in Employee Experience (Zurich) March 4-6 - Gloat Live! (New York) March 14-15 - Wharton People Analytics Conference (Philadelphia) April 19-20 - People Analytics World (London) May 7-9 - UNLEASH America (Las Vegas) September 24-26 - Insight222 Global Executive Retreat (Colorado, US) - exclusively for member organisations of the Insight222 People Analytics Program October 16-17 - UNLEASH World (Paris) More events will be added as they are confirmed.

Josh Bersin
2024年01月14日
Josh Bersin

Josh Bersin:2024: The Year That Changes Business Forever (Podcast) The podcast "2024: The Year That Changes Business Forever" by Josh Bersin explores anticipated transformations in business by 2024. It highlights the impact of AI, labor shortages, and evolving organizational structures. The podcast delves into the 2023 economic performance, changes in employee engagement, and the necessity for businesses to adapt strategically. It emphasizes a shift towards dynamic, flatter organizations and the critical role of systemic HR practices in shaping future business landscapes. Josh Bersin探讨了2024年企业预期的转型。这些转型由AI的应用、劳动力短缺和组织结构的变化驱动。播客讨论了2023年的经济表现、员工参与度的变化以及企业为应对未来挑战所需的适应策略。它强调了向动态、扁平化组织的转变和系统性人力资源实践在塑造未来商业环境中的重要作用。 In this podcast I recap 2023 and discuss the big stories for 2024, and to me this year is a tipping point that changes business forever. Why do I say this? Because we’re entering a world of labor shortages, redesign of our companies, and business transformation driven by AI. We’ll look back on 2024 and realize it was a very pivotal year. (Note: In mid-January we’re going to be publishing our detailed predictions report. This article is an edited transcript of this week’s podcast, so it reads like a conversation.) Podcast Begins: Interestingly, the entire year 2023 people were worried about a recession and it didn’t happen. In fact, economically and financially, we had a very strong year. Inflation in the United States and around the world went down. We did have to suffer rising interest rates, and that was a shock, but it was long overdue. I really think the problem we experienced is we had low interest rates for far too long, encouraging speculative investment. Now that the economy is more rational, consumer demand is high, the business environment is solid, and the stock market is performing well. The Nasdaq is almost at an all time high, the seven super stocks did extremely well: the big tech companies, the big retailers, the oil companies, many of the consumer luxury goods companies did extremely well. And the only companies that didn’t do well were the companies that couldn’t make it through the transformation that’s going on. On the cultural front we had the Supreme Court overturning affirmative action in education, which led to a political backlash on diversity and inclusion. The woke mind virus by Elon Musk and similar discussions further pushed back DEI programs, which has made chief diversity officers life difficult. We’re living through two wars, which have been very significant for many companies. I know a lot of you have closed down operations in Russia, and anybody doing business in Israel is having a tough time. And we’ve had this continuous period where every piece of data about employee engagement shows that employees are burned out, tired, stressed. They feel that they’re overworked. Despite this employee sentiment, wages went up by over 5% and people who changed jobs saw raise wages of 8% or more. The unemployment rate is very low so there are a lot of jobs. You could ask yourself, why are people stressed? I think it’s a continued overhang of the pandemic: the remote work challenges, the complexities and inconsistencies in hybrid work. And something else: the younger part of the workforce, those who are going to be living a lot longer than people who are baby boomers, are basically saying I don’t really want to kill myself just to get ahead. I want to have a life. I want to quietly quit. If my company don’t take care of me, I’m going to work my wage, meaning I’m going to work as hard as I’m paid, no more than that. And that mentality has created an environment for the four-day work week, which I think is coming quicker than you realize. And unions, which are politically in favor, are rising at an all time increase in about 25, 30 years. Inflation and the need to raise wages to attract talent leads to pay equity problems. This domain is more complex than you think. You can read about it in our research and in 2024 it belongs on your list. 2024 will also see enormous demand for career reinvention, career development, growth programs, coaching, mentorship, allyship and support amongst the younger part of the workforce. And that means that if you’re in retail, healthcare, hospitality, or one of the other industries that hires younger people you have to accommodate this tremendous demand for benefits. These are things that became very clear in 2023. But let’s talk about the elephant in the room: the biggest thing that happened in 2023 was AI. AI has transformed the conversations we have about everything from media to publishing to HR technology to recruiting to employee development to employee experience. As you probably know, I’m very high on AI. I think it’s going to have a huge transformational effect on our companies, our jobs, our careers, and our personal lives. AI will improve our health, our ability to learn, the way we consume news (note that the NYT just sued OpenAI and Microsoft for copyright infringement). Almost every part of our life will be transformed by AI. I know from our conversations that most of you are trying to understand it and see where it fits. And many of you have been told by your CEO, “we need an AI strategy for the company as well as in HR.” And the AI strategy in HR is one thing, but the bigger topic is the rest of the company. So HR is going to have to be a part of this transformation: the new roles, jobs, rewards, and skills we need. This year I’m very excited that we introduced Galileo™, which about 500 or so of you have been using. We’re going to launch the corporate version for everybody in the corporate membership in February, so corporate members stay tuned (or join). Galileo brings AI to HR in an easy-to-use, safe, and high-value way, so it will help you get your strategy together. It’s basically ready to go. Then later in the year we’ll launch a version to the JBA community and more. AI, despite all the fear-mongering, is already a very positive technology. Where are we going next? Well as the title of this article states, I think this is the year that changes business forever. And I’m not trying to be hyperbolic, I really see a tipping point. Let me give you the story. For about a decade I’ve been writing about the flattening of organizations, breaking down of hierarchies, creating what I used to call the networked organization. And this is now mainstream and we’ve decided to call it the Dynamic Organization. And what we mean by this, as you read about in the Dynamic Organization research or in the Post-Industrial Age study, is that the functional hierarchies of jobs, careers, organizations and companies are being broken down for really good reasons. The reason we have functional hierarchies, job levels and siloed business functions is because they’re patterned after the industrial age when companies made money by selling products and services at scale. The automobile industry, the oil and gas industry, the manufacturing industries, the CPG industries, even the pharmaceutical companies are essentially building things, bringing them to market, launching them, selling them, and distributing them in a linear chain. And that “scalable industrial business model” is how we designed our organizations. So we built large organizations for R&D, large organizations for product management and product design and packaging, large organizations for marketing, large organizations for sales, large organizations for business development and distribution, supply chain, and so on (including Finance and HR). And all these ten or fifteen business functions had their own hierarchies. So you, as an employee, worked your way up those hierarchies. When I graduated from college in 1978 as an engineer, I went into one of those hierarchies. For each employee you were an engineer, a salesperson, a marketing manager, or whatever and you worked your way up the pyramid. And at some point in your career you crossed over and did other things, but that was fairly unusual. That wasn’t really the career path. You worked about 35-40 years in that profession and then you retired. And a lot of companies had another construct: management and labor. Management decided “what to do” and labor “did it.” And all of these designs helped us build most of the HR practices we use today, including hiring, pay, performance management, succession, career management, goal setting, leadership development, and on and on. Today, if you look at how the most valued companies in the world, they don’t operate this way any more. Why? Because it slows them down like molasses. If you have to traverse a functional hierarchy to come up with a new idea it takes months or years to create something new. Today value is created through innovation, time to market, closeness to customers, and unique and high-value offerings. The “hierarchy” wasn’t designed for this at all. Here are a few dogmas to consider. We used to think that all new ideas come out of R&D. That’s crazy. Of course R&D is important, but some of the most innovative companies in the world don’t even have R&D departments, they have product teams. The Research Department at Microsoft didn’t even invent AI, the company had to partner with OpenAI, a company that has less than a thousand employees. Here’s another one to consider. Deloitte consultants used to talk about “innovation at the edge,” otherwise known as “skunk works.” We used to advise clients to “separate the new ideas from the scale business” so they new ideas don’t get crushed or ignored. Well today all the new ideas come from the operating businesses, and we iterate in a real-time way. So there’s another industrial organization structure that just no longer applies. So what we’ve been going through in the dynamic organization, and we’ve studied this in detail, is that we’ve got to design our companies to be flatter. We’ve got to simplify the job titles and descriptions so people can move around. We have to organize people into cross functional teams, we have to motivate and train people to work across the functional silos. We have to build agile working groups, we have to redo performance management around teams and projects, not around individual goals and cascading goals. We need to build pay equity into the system so you’re paid fairly regardless of where you started. Let’s talk about pay. One of the problems with the hierarchy is you get a raise every year based on your performance appraisal. And after a few years your pay may have been quite a bit different than somebody sitting next to you simply because of your appraisals. But you may not be delivering any more than them. That wasn’t fair. If you came into the company with a background in marketing, you made less money than somebody who came into the company with a background in engineering. But five years later you might be doing the same stuff but making different amounts of money. And then there’s gender bias, age bias, and other non-performance factors. In a “skills meritocracy,” as we call it, pay equity has to get fixed. We’ve got to have developmental careers and talent marketplaces and open job opportunities and mentoring for people. And these people practices are the facilitation of becoming more dynamic. And the problem of not being dynamic is what happened at Salesforce, Meta, and other tech companies last year. Salesforce hired thousands of salespeople during the last upcycle after the pandemic, and then a year later laid most of them off. Meta did the same thing. Google’s probably next. These companies, operating in the industrial mindset, thought that the only way to grow is to hire more salespeople, more engineers, or more marketing folks. But the quantity of people in one of these business functions doesn’t necessarily drive growth and profitability. What matters is how they work together and what they do, not how many of them there are. This old idea that we’re going to grow the company by hiring, hiring, hiring is gone. It doesn’t work anymore. It’s still a part of the growth part of the company, you’re always hiring to replace people, to bring new skills, et cetera, and to bring new perspectives. But in a dynamic organization, a lot of the growth comes from within. People grow too. Even the word growth mindset has become overused. We need to have an organizational growth mindset so that we can grow as an organization. A great example of this is Intel. Intel lost their way in the manufacturing of semiconductors and also in the R&D. Now they’re reinventing themselves internally and their stock is skyrocketing. They didn’t hire some guru to tell them what to do, they know what to do. They just need to get around to doing it. Google has more AI engineers than OpenAI, Anthropic, and all the other little guys put together, but they didn’t execute well. Now they’re executing better. They brought their AI teams together into cross-functional groups and they’re sharing IP from YouTube with other business areas. I bet they stomp many of the others in AI once they get it going. That’s part of being a dynamic organization. You as HR people know better than anybody how dysfunctional it is when there are multiple groups in the company doing competing things and they’re not working together because they don’t know about each other, or they don’t talk to each other. There’s no cross fertilization or they’re protecting their turf. All of these are the things that get in the way of being a dynamic organization. And the reason it’s relevant in the next year is this has taken hold. Things like talent marketplaces and career pathways and skills-based organizations, skills based hiring, skills based pay, skills based careers, skills based development, et cetera… these are not just HR fads, they’re solutions to this big shift: making companies more dynamic. Despite their value in the past, hierarchical stove-piped companies don’t operate very well anymore. Now this isn’t an A-B switch type of thing. This is an evolution, but it’s taking place very quickly. And the reason we came up with this concept of Systemic HR is we in HR have to do the same thing. The HR function itself operates in silos. We’ve got the recruiting group, the DEI group, the Comp group, the L&D group, the business partners, the group that does compliance, the group that worries about wellbeing. We’ve got somebody over here is doing an EX project, somebody over there is doing a data management project, a people analytics group. Okay. Those are all great functional areas that belong in HR. But if they’re not working together on the problems that the company has, and I mean the big problems, growth, profitability, productivity, M&A, etc., then who cares? Then you’re at level one or level two in systemic HR. We built the Systemic HR initiative around business problems. And that’s how we came up with the new HR operating model (read more details here or view the video overview). I think Systemic HR will be a very big deal for 2024, and there are many reasons. Not only are we living in a labor shortage but there’s another accelerant, and that is AI. For those of you that have used Galileo, and I hope you all get a chance to use it this year, it’s absolutely unbelievable how AI can pull together information, data, text from many sources in the company and make sense of what your company is doing. You know as well as I do, if you’ve worked in sales, if you’ve worked in marketing, if you worked in finance, these are siloed groups. Few companies have a truly integrated data management system for all of their customer data match to their sales, data match to their revenue, data match to their marketing. Customer data platforms are a idea, but it doesn’t really happen very often, and it takes tens to hundreds of millions of dollars and many, many systems to do that. Well, AI does this almost automatically. So when you pull together a tool like Galileo, and you use our research as part of the corpus, and you add data about employee turnover, for example, in your company, or pay variations, you’ll see the relationship between pay and turnover just by asking a question. You don’t have to go spend months doing an analysis and trying to figure out if the analysis is any good. And that’s happening all over the company in sales and customer service and R&D and marketing – everywhere. So this more integrated, dynamic organization is happening before your eyes. In 2024, this is the context for almost everything we’re going to be working on now. The other context is the labor market, which is going to be very tough. You’ve read about from us and others about how tight the labor market is now. Unemployment in the United States is 3.8%, and it’s not going to get much better. Even if we do have a recession, which is questionable, there aren’t enough people to hire. The fertility rate is low, and even if every company gives employees fertility benefits and they all have babies, it will take twenty years for these people to go to work. So all of the developed countries: US, UK, Canada, Germany, Japan, the Nordics, China, Russia, the fertility rate has been low for a long time. The World Bank sees working population shrinking within ten years in almost every developed economy. Since hiring is going to get harder and we’ll see fewer and fewer working people, companies have to be much more integrated in hiring. And we all have to look the Four R’s: Recruit, Retain, Reskill, Redesign. This puts HR in the middle of a lot of job redesign, career reinvention, and a serious look at developing skills, not hiring skills, and using the tools we have as hr professionals to help the organization improve productivity without just hiring and hiring and hiring. I measure the success of companies by two things. One is their endurance: how well have they fared over ups and downs? The second is their revenue per employee. Companies with low revenues per employee tend to be poorly managed companies relative to their peers. Of course there’s a lot of industry differences. When we went through our GWI industry work: healthcare, consumer goods, pharma, banking, we could see the high performing companies were very efficient on a headcount basis. And we found out these companies are actually implementing Systemic HR practices. The other driver that we’re living in a service economy. Interestingly enough, in the United States, more than 70% of our GDP is now services. So the people you have, the humans in your company, are the product. And if you’re not getting good output per dollar of revenue per human, you’re not running the company very well. And this leads to many management topics. How are we going to build early and mid-level leaders? How can we rethink what employees really need? The topics of employee engagement and employee experience are really 25 to 30 years old. They need a massive update. How are we going to implement AI in L&D and replace a lot of these old systems that everybody kind of hates, but we’re stuck with? What’s going on with the ERP vendors and what role will they play as we replace our HR tech with AI powered systems? How will we implement scalable talent intelligence? In a world of labor shortages talent intelligence becomes even more important, whether you think of it for sourcing and recruiting or an internal mobility or just a strategic planning initiative. How do we all get comfortable with AI? And then there’s this issue of Systemic HR and developing your team, your function, your operating model to be more adaptive and more dynamic. So I look back on 2023 I feel it was one of the most fascinating and fun and enriching years that I’ve had. I am always amazed and impressed and energized by you, by you guys who were out there on the firing lines, dealing with these complex issues and companies with old technologies and all sorts of changes going on and how you’re adapting. I continue to be more impressed and more excited about the HR profession every year. I think a lot of people who aren’t in HR think we do a lot of compliance and administration stuff and we fire people. That is the tiniest part of what we do. 2024 is going to be an important year. You as an HR professional are going to have to learn a lot of things. You’re going to learn about Systemic HR issues, you’re going to learn about AI, and you’re going to learn to be a consultant. There’s no question in my mind that over the next decade or two dynamic organization management is going to become a bigger and bigger issue – how we manage people and companies. And I don’t mean manage like supervise, I mean develop, move, retain, pay, et cetera, culture, all of those things. I leave 2023 very energized about what’s to come with AI. And if you’re afraid of AI, just take a deep breath and relax. It’s not going to bite you. There’s nothing evil here. It’s a data driven system. If you don’t have your data act together, you’re not going to get a lot of good value out of AI. I talked to Donna Morris at Walmart last week; I talked to Nickle LaMoreaux at IBM; and I talked with the senior HR leaders at Microsoft. They’re all seeing huge returns on investment from the early implementations, and seeing hundreds of use cases. We’re going to have a lot of new tools and lots of vendor shakeout. (Check out what SAP is up to and where Workday is going.) Stay tuned for our big Predictions report coming out in mid January. That report is my chance to give you some deep perspectives on where I think things are going, recap things that have happened over the last couple of years, and give you some perspectives for the year ahead. As always we would be more than happy to walk through these things with your team. I hope you have a really nice holiday season and you take a deep breath. The world is never perfect. It’s never been perfect. It wasn’t perfect in the past. It won’t be perfect in the future. But the environment you live in and the environment that you create can be enriching, enjoyable, productive, and healthy, and fun if you decide. And I think we all have the opportunity to make those decisions. It has been a pleasure and an honor for me to serve and work with you this last year, and I’m really looking forward to an amazing 2024 together. –END OF PODCAST– Irresistible: The Seven Secrets of the World’s Most Enduring, Employee-Focused Organizations

Josh Bersin
2023年12月30日
Josh Bersin

Josh Bersin人工智能实施越来越像传统IT项目 Josh Bersin的文章《人工智能实施越来越像传统IT项目》提出了五个主要发现：数据管理：强调数据质量、治理和架构在AI项目中的重要性，类似于IT项目。安全和访问管理：突出AI实施中强大的安全措施和访问控制的重要性。工程和监控：讨论了持续工程支持和监控的需求，类似于IT基础设施管理。供应商管理：指出了AI项目中彻底的供应商评估和选择的重要性。变更管理和培训：强调了有效变更管理和培训的必要性，这对AI和IT项目都至关重要。原文如下，我们一起来看看： As we learn more and more about corporate implementations of AI, I’m struck by how they feel more like traditional IT projects every day. Yes, Generative AI systems have many special characteristics: they’re intelligent, we need to train them, and they have radical and transformational impact on users. And the back-end processing is expensive. But despite the talk about advanced models and life-like behavior, these projects have traditional aspects. I’ve talked with more than a dozen large companies about their various AI strategies and I want to encourage buyers to think about the basics. Finding 1: Corporate AI projects are all about the data. Unlike the implementation of a new ERP system, payroll system, recruiting, or learning platform, an AI platform is completely data dependent. Regardless of the product you’re buying (an intelligent agent like Galileo™, an intelligent recruiting system like Eightfold, or an AI-enabling platform to provide sales productivity), success depends on your data strategy. If your enterprise data is a mess, the AI won’t suddenly make sense of it. This week I read a story about Microsoft’s Copilot promoting election lies and conspiracy theories. While I can’t tell how widespread this may be, it simply points out that “you own the data quality, training, and data security” of your AI systems. Walmart’s My Assistant AI for employees already proved itself to be 2-3x more accurate at handling employee inquiries about benefits, for example. But in order to do this the company took advantage of an amazing IT architecture that brings all employee information into a single profile, a mobile experience with years of development, and a strong architecture for global security. One of our clients, a large defense contractor, is exploring the use of AI to revolutionize its massive knowledge management environment. While we know that Gen AI can add tremendous value here, the big question is “what data should we load” and how do we segment the data so the right people access the right information? They’re now working on that project. During our design of Galileo we spent almost a year combing through the information we’ve amassed for 25 years to build a corpus that delivers meaningful answers. Luckily we had been focused on data management from the beginning, but if we didn’t have a solid data architecture (with consistent metadata and information types), the project would have been difficult. So core to these projects is a data management team who understands data sources, metadata, and data integration tools. And once the new AI system is working, we have to train it, update it, and remove bias and errors on a regular basis. Finding 2: Corporate AI projects need heavy focus on security and access management. Let’s suppose you find a tool, platform, or application that delivers a groundbreaking solution to your employees. It could be a sales automation system, an AI-powered recruiting system, or an AI application to help call center agents handle problems. Who gets access to what? How do you “layer” the corpus to make sure the right people see what they need? This kind of exercise is the same thing we did at IBM in the 1980s, when we implemented this complex but critically important system called RACF. I hate to promote my age, but RACF designers thought through these issues of data security and access management many years ago. AI systems need a similar set of tools, and since the LLM has a tendency to “consolidate and aggregate” everything into the model, we may need multiple models for different users. In the case of HR, if build a talent intelligence database using Eightfold, Seekout, or Gloat which includes job titles, skills, levels, and details about credentials and job history, and then we decide to add “salary” … oops.. well all of a sudden we have a data privacy problem. I just finished an in-depth discussion with SAP-SuccessFactors going through the AI architecture, and what you see is a set of “mini AI apps” developed to operate in Joule (SAP’s copilot) for various use cases. SAP has spent years building workflows, access patterns, and various levels of user security. They designed the system to handle confidential data securely. Remember also that tools like ChatGPT, which access the internet, can possibly import or leak data in a harmful way. And users may accidentally use the Gen AI tools to create unacceptable content, dangerous communications, and invoke other “jailbreak” behaviors. In your talent intelligence strategy, how will you manage payroll data and other private information? If the LLM uses this data for analysis we have to make sure that only appropriate users can see it. Finding 3: Corporate AI projects need focus on “prompt engineering” and system monitoring. In a typical IT project we spend a lot of time on the user experience. We design portals, screens, mobile apps, and experiences with the help of UI designers, artists, and craftsmen. But in Gen AI systems we want the user to “tell us what they’re looking for.” How do we train or support the user in prompting the system well? If you’ve ever tried to use a support chatbot from a company like Paypal you know how difficult this can be. I spent weeks trying to get Paypal’s bot to tell me how to shut down my account, but it never came close to giving me the right answer. (Eventually I figured it out, even though I still get invoices from a contractor who has since deceased!) We have to think about these issues. In our case, we’ve built a “prompt library” and series of workflows to help HR professionals get the most out of Galileo to make the system easy to use. And vendors like Paradox, Visier (Vee), and SAP are building sophisticated workflows that let users ask a simple question (“what candidates are at stage 3 of the pipeline”) and get a well formatted answer. If you ask a recruiting bot something like “who are the top candidates for this position” and plug it into the ATS, will it give you a good answer? I’m not sure, to be honest – so the vendors (or you) have to train it and build workflows to predict what users will ask. This means we’ll be monitoring these systems, looking at interactions that don’t work, and constantly tuning them to get better. A few years ago I interviewed the VP of Digital Transformation at DBS (Digital Bank of Singapore), one of the most sophisticated digital banks in the world. He told me they built an entire team to watch every click on the website so they could constantly move buttons, simplify interfaces, and make information easier to find. We’re going to need to do the same thing with AI, since we can’t really predict what questions people will ask. Finding 4: Vendors will need to be vetted. The next “traditional IT” topic is going to be the vetting of vendors. If I were a large bank or insurance company and I was looking at advanced AI systems, I would scrutinize the vendor’s reputation and experience in detail. Just because a firm like OpenAI has built a great LLM doesn’t mean that they, as a vendor, are capable of meeting your needs. Does the vendor have the resources, expertise, and enterprise feature set you require? I recently talked with a large enterprise in the middle east who has major facilities in Saudi Arabia, Dubai, and other countries in the region. They do not and will not let user information, queries, or generated data leave their jurisdiction. Does the vendor you select have the ability to handle this requirement? Small AI vendors will struggle with these issues, leading IT to do risk assessment in a new way. There are also consultants popping up who specialize in “bias detection” or testing of AI systems. Large companies can do this themselves, but I expect that over time there will be consulting firms who help you evaluate the accuracy and quality of these systems. If the system is trained on your data, how well have you tested it? In many cases the vendor-provided AI uses data from the outside world: what data is it using and how safe is it for your application? Finding 5: Change management, training, and organization design are critical. Finally, as with all technology projects, we have to think about change management and communication. What is this system designed to do? How will it impact your job? What should you do if the answers are not clear or correct? All these issues are important. There’s a need for user training. Our experience shows that users adopt these systems quickly, but they may not understand how to ask a question or how to interpret an answer. You may need to create prompt libraries (like Galileo), or interactive conversation journeys. And then offer support so users can resolve answers which are wrong, unclear, or inconsistent. And most importantly of all, there’s the issue of roles and org design. Suppose we offer an intelligent system to let sales people quickly find answers to product questions, pricing, and customer history. What is the new role of sales ops? Do we have staff to update and maintain the quality of the data? Should we reorganize our sales team as a result? We’ve already discovered that Galileo really breaks down barriers within HR, for example, showing business partners or HR leaders how to handle issues that may be in another person’s domain. These are wonderful outcomes which should encourage leaders to rethink how the roles are defined. In our company, as we use AI for our research, I see our research team operating at a higher level. People are sharing information, analyzing cross-domain information more quickly, and taking advantage of interviews and external data at high speed. They’re writing articles more quickly and can now translate material into multiple languages. Our member support and advisory team, who often rely on analysts for expertise, are quickly becoming consultants. And as we release Galileo to clients, the level of questions and inquiries will become more sophisticated. This process will happen in every sales organization, customer service organization, engineering team, finance, and HR team. Imagine the “new questions” people will ask. Bottom Line: Corporate AI Systems Become IT Projects At the end of the day the AI technology revolution will require lots of traditional IT practices. While AI applications are groundbreaking powerful, the implementation issues are more traditional than you think. I will never forget the failed implementation of Siebel during my days at Sybase. The company was enamored with the platform, bought, and forced us to use it. Yet the company never told us why they bought it, explained how to use it, or built workflows and job roles to embed it into the company. In only a year Sybase dumped the system after the sales organization simply rejected it. Nobody wants an outcome like that with something as important as AI. As you learn and become more enamored with the power of AI, I encourage you to think about the other tech projects you’ve worked on. It’s time to move beyond the hype and excitement and think about real-world success.

Josh Bersin
2023年12月17日
Josh Bersin

人工智能正在以比我预期更快的速度改变企业学习AI Is Transforming Corporate Learning Even Faster Than I Expected 在《AI正在比我预想的更快地改变企业学习AI Is Transforming Corporate Learning Even Faster Than I Expected》这一文中，Josh Bersin强调了AI对企业学习和发展（L&D）领域的革命性影响。L&D市场价值高达3400亿美元，涵盖了从员工入职到操作程序等一系列活动。传统模型正在随着像Galileo™这样的生成性AI技术的发展而演变，这改变了内容的创建、个性化和传递方式。本文探讨了AI在L&D中的主要用例，包括内容生成、个性化学习体验、技能发展，以及用AI驱动的知识工具替代传统培训。举例包括Arist的AI内容创作、Uplimit的个性化AI辅导，以及沃尔玛实施AI进行即时培训。这种转型是深刻的，呈现了一个AI不仅增强而且重新定义L&D策略的未来。在受人工智能影响的所有领域中，最大的变革也许发生在企业学习中。经过一年的实验，现在很明显人工智能将彻底改变这个领域。让我们讨论一下 L&D 到底是什么。企业培训无处不在，这就是为什么它是一个价值 3400 亿美元的市场。工作中发生的一切（从入职到填写费用账户再到复杂的操作程序）在某种程度上都需要培训。即使在经济衰退期间，企业在 L&D 上的支出仍稳定在人均 1200-1500 美元。然而，正如研发专业人士所知，这个问题非常复杂。有数百种培训平台、工具、内容库和方法。我估计 L&D 技术空间的规模超过 140 亿美元，这甚至不包括搜索引擎、知识管理工具以及 Zoom、Teams 和 Webex 等平台等系统。多年来，我们经历了许多演变：电子学习、混合学习、微型学习，以及现在的工作流程中的学习。生成式人工智能即将永远改变这一切。考虑一下我们面临的问题。企业培训并不是真正的教学，而是创造一个学习的环境。传统的教学设计以教师为主导，以过程为中心，但在工作中常常表现不佳。人们通过多种方式学习，通常没有老师，他们寻找参考资料，复制别人正在做的事情，并依靠经理、同事和专家的帮助。因此，必须扩展传统的教学设计模型，以帮助人们学习他们需要的东西。输入生成人工智能，这是一种旨在合成信息的技术。像Galileo™这样的生成式人工智能工具可以以传统教学设计师无法做到的方式理解、整合、重组和传递来自大型语料库的信息。这种人工智能驱动的学习方法不仅效率更高，而且效果更好，能够在工作流程中进行学习。早期，在工作流程中学习意味着搜索信息并希望找到相关的东西。这个过程非常耗时，而且常常没有结果。生成式人工智能通过其神经网络的魔力，现在已经准备好解决这些问题，就像 L&D 的瑞士军刀一样。这是一个简单的例子。我问Galileo™（该公司经过 25 年的研究和案例研究提供支持）：“我该如何应对总是迟到的员工？请给我一个叙述来帮助我？” 它没有带我去参加管理课程或给我看一堆视频，而是简单地回答了问题。这种类型的互动是企业学习的大部分内容。让我总结一下人工智能在学习与发展中的四个主要用例：生成内容：人工智能可以大大减少内容创建所涉及的时间和复杂性。例如，移动学习工具Arist拥有AI生成功能Sidekick，可以将综合的操作信息转化为一系列的教学活动。这个过程可能需要几周甚至几个月的时间，现在可以在几天甚至几小时内完成。我们在Josh Bersin 学院使用 Arist ，我们的新移动课程现在几乎每月都会推出。Sana、Docebo Shape和以用户为中心的学习平台 360 Learning 等其他工具也同样令人兴奋。个性化学习者体验：人工智能可以帮助根据个人需求定制学习路径，改进根据工作角色分配学习路径的传统模型。人工智能可以理解内容的细节，并使用该信息来个性化学习体验。这种方法比杂乱的学习体验平台（LXP）有效得多，因为LXP通常无法真正理解内容的细节。 Uplimit是一家致力于构建人工智能平台来帮助教授人工智能的初创公司，它正在使用其Cobot和其他工具为学习人工智能的技术专业人员提供个性化的指导和技巧。Cornerstone 的新 AI 结构按技能推荐课程，Sana 平台将 Galileo 等工具与学习连接起来，SuccessFactors 中的新 AI 功能还为用户提供了基于角色和活动的精选学习视图。识别和发展技能：人工智能可以帮助识别内容中的技能并推断个人的技能。这有助于提供正确的培训并确定其有效性。虽然许多公司正在研究高级技能分类策略，但真正的价值在于可以通过人工智能识别和开发的细粒度、特定领域的技能。人才情报领域的先驱者Eightfold、Gloat和SeekOut可以推断员工技能并立即推荐学习解决方案。实际上，我们正在使用这项技术来推出我们的人力资源职业导航器，该导航器将于明年初推出。用知识工具取代培训：人工智能在学习与发展中最具颠覆性的用例也许是完全取代某些类型培训的潜力。人工智能可以创建提供信息和解决问题的智能代理或聊天机器人，从而可能消除对某些类型培训的需求。这种方法不仅效率更高，而且效果更好，因为它可以在个人需要时为他们提供所需的信息。沃尔玛今天正在实施这一举措，我们的新平台 Galileo 正在帮助万事达卡和劳斯莱斯等公司在无需培训的情况下按需查找人力资源信息和政策信息。LinkedIn Learning 正在向 Gen AI 搜索开放其软技能内容，很快 Microsoft Copilot 将通过 Viva Learning 找到培训。这里潜力巨大在我作为分析师的这些年里，我从未见过一种技术具有如此大的潜力。人工智能将彻底改变 L&D 格局，重塑我们的工作方式，以便 L&D 专业人员可以花时间为企业提供咨询。 L&D 专业人员应该做什么？花一些时间来了解这项技术，或者参加Josh Bersin 学院的一些新的人工智能课程以了解更多信息。随着我们继续推出像伽利略这样的工具，我知道你们每个人都会对未来的机会感到惊讶。L&D 的未来已经到来，而这一切都由人工智能驱动。

Josh Bersin
2023年12月13日
Josh Bersin

Josh Bersin：Introducing Galileo™, The World’s First AI-Powered Expert Assistant For HR As many of you know, HR professionals play a vital, complex, and constantly changing role in business. These 30 million professionals hold more than 250 job roles and leverage over 400 skills to help companies with all aspects of management: recruiting, development, leadership, coaching, diversity, pay, benefits, hybrid work, and more. And they must also select and implement a wide array of technologies and tools to help their companies grow. The Josh Bersin Company, through 25 years of research and interviews with thousands of companies and vendors, has amassed the most trusted library of best-practices, vendor information, benchmarks, case studies, and professional development tools for HR. Last Spring we embarked on a project to build an “HR Copilot”, consolidating our content into a Generative AI platform. The results were amazing: using Gen AI we were able to build an amazing new experience: users can ask questions, compare vendors, dig into solutions, and generate implementation plans, RFP templates, and more. Today, in our ongoing effort to help HR professionals drive value for their companies, we’re ready to launch this offering. I’m excited to introduce Galileo™, the world’s first AI-powered expert assistant for HR. (Join the waitlist.) Every HR Question Answered Just as Galileo mapped the heavens to explain the universe, our Galileo™ gives HR teams the ability to understand, learn, and seek out best-practices in every area of HR. Powered by Sana’s AI platform, Galileo™ gives users complete access to all of The Josh Bersin Company’s comprehensive research, articles, and tools. And unlike internet-based AI tools, Galileo is free of promotional material, giving you trusted, detailed, verifiable accurate information. We designed Galileo™ to be the HR professional’s ‘always-on’ resource to learn, ask questions, and develop solutions. Galileo™ can answer questions on hundreds of topics, provide detailed information on vendors and HR technology, draft RFPs and implementation plans, and give users guidance, case studies, and benchmarks. All of the Josh Bersin Company research is instantly available, with access to in-depth reports, podcasts, articles, and courses. This includes access to our maturity models, frameworks, case studies, and our new definition of terms, The Josh Bersin Company Lexicon™. Galileo™ will revolutionize the way HR Professionals do their jobs. No longer will you have to guess how to develop a new program or understand a vendor – accurate information is available at your fingertips. Galileo Is A Learning, Design, And Problem Solving Assistant Many HR problems are complex. To make problem-solving easy, Galileo includes a library of more than 50 pre-defined “prompts” which help professionals with topics like hiring, onboarding, performance management, training, and multi-disciplinary topics like building a skills taxonomy, implementing pay equity, workforce planning, or designing a capability academy. We designed these prompts in chains, so as you ask a question, Galileo will take you down a path to learn, explore, and further assist you in your query. (The Galileo Getting Started Guide shows you some of the solutions available.) Enterprise Ready: Galileo Is Your Company’s Expert Assistant And there’s more. As you use Galileo, you will want to put your own HR policies and internal information into the system. Thanks to the architecture of Sana, Galileo lets users and teams add your information to the corpus, turning Galileo into your company’s in-house HR and employee assistant. In this private workspace your data and privacy are protected: Galileo is an enterprise grade, secure platform that isolates your data from others, pre-trained by The Josh Bersin Company research. And our partnership with Sana goes further. Not only does the Sana platform provide scale and speed, it lets us build multiple AI assistants. If you want an expert assistant tailored to specific HR disciplines, like Talent Acquisition, L&D, DEI, or line managers, we can create them without writing code. “This is just the beginning,” said Josh Bersin, CEO and Founder of The Josh Bersin Company. “This paradigm-shattering offering will change the way companies run their HR organizations and manage their people, enabling any professional to operate like a world-class expert in a short period of time. Galileo is a supportive, developmental assistant, ready to give users detailed answers, real-world examples, and guidance at any time.” Initially Galileo will be available to our corporate members and later next year we will roll out a version available to members of The Josh Bersin Academy. We want to thank Sana for their partnership and look forward to evolving Galileo rapidly in the coming months. Anyone interested in experiencing Galileo can sign up for the wait list. We expect general availability in early 2024. Questions: What Topics Are Covered by Galileo? Galileo stores more than 50,000 pages of Josh Bersin Company research, including podcasts, articles, and comprehensive data and analysis on a wide variety of topics. These include talent acquisition, talent management, corporate training, diversity and inclusion, organization design, rewards and recognition, pay and pay equity, performance management, leadership development, global HR operations, hybrid work, culture, change management, and every major area of HR technology. More than 500 vendors are covered by Galileo and the database is growing and updated every week. Over time Galileo will also include real-time information on new vendor offerings, the labor market, skills and capabilities, and important regulatory changes in HR. To get just a glimpse of what Galileo can do, review the “Galileo Getting Started Guide.” Is Galileo Generative AI? Yes, Galileo is an advanced Generative AI solution that lets users ask questions and prompt the system to compare vendors, list best practices, and even create implementation plans, historical perspectives, and in-depth analysis. This means an HR professional can ask any simple question and Galileo will not only answer the question but give the user follow-on prompts to help them learn more, find examples, or download detailed reports, articles, podcasts, or tools. What Is The Research and Information Provided? Over the last three decades The Josh Bersin Company has studied nearly every domain of HR, developing in-depth maturity models, frameworks, benchmarks, and case studies. We have also added all of Josh’s blogs, podcasts, and videos – and we will be adding much more. While Galileo does not include legal and regulatory guidelines (these can be discovered in local jurisdictional systems), it covers every major domain of HR, empowering any HR leader or professional to quickly learn, find examples, and solve a problem. How Do We Know Galileo Information Is Accurate? Unlike public domain tools, Galileo is trained exclusively on The Josh Bersin Company’s large corpus of information and research. This means it does not suffer from the “AI drift” problem experienced by internet-sourced systems. In fact the opposite is true: as users query and use the system, it enables them to rate the generated answers and get smarter over time. How Do I Know That Galileo Is Secure? Galileo does not train any underlying language models on user input, thereby eliminating the risk of data leakage. Sana, which powers Galileo, is single tenant, ISO 27001 certified, and GDPR compliant. All data is encrypted at rest with AES 256 and in transit with TLS 1.2+. The platform follows data privacy regulations and guidelines to protect each individual user. Can I Use Galileo To Create My Own HR Assistant? Yes, Galileo is built on the highly configurable Sana platform, enabling users and teams to add their own content and create new AI assistants. We will offer these private workspace features to corporate clients and then roll them out to individual JBA members later in 2024. How does Galileo Differ From Other AI Tools? Many companies are experimenting with Generative AI through public internet tools. Galileo differs from these existing AI tools for the following reasons: Enterprise Scale, Scope, and Security. Galileo is built on an enterprise scale AI platform capable of loading massive volumes of your own company information. This means you can build on the Josh Bersin Company corpus to safely add your own processes, training, compliance documents, and support material for HR professionals and other users throughout your company. Depth of expertise. The answers and support you receive from Galileo are based on an extensive library from The Josh Bersin Company, one of the world’s leading advisory companies for corporate learning, talent management, and HR. The Josh Bersin Company has customized Galileo to answer and behave as if it were an expert consultant from their organization. Source attribution. While other AI chat tools don’t consistently back up their answers, Galileo attributes sources to each answer with specific references and further learning content from The Josh Bersin Company library. And for corporate members, you can download and read the detailed sources. Privacy. While other assistants may get trained on your data and usage, risking data leakage, Galileo lets you upload your own content without training any underlying large language models on your data. Workflow support. Beyond answering questions and brainstorming ideas, Galileo helps you solve day-to-day tasks like drafting implementation plans because it can generate content based on both expert HR resources and your organization’s information. How Does Galileo Get Smarter Over Time? As we say, Galileo is smart and always getting smarter. It does this through many features. First, Galileo integrates, tags, transcribes, and indexes all of The Josh Bersin Company’s content on an ongoing basis, making sure the system is always trained on the latest research, findings, and vendor information. Every day we add new information. Second, answers to questions are generated with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), identifying the semantically relevant videos, audio, and texts, ranking the sources, and attributing the generated answers to the underlying references. We monitor questions and continuously improve results to provide detail and actionable answers. Third, we take advantage of user-generated feedback. When users upvote or downvote answers the system learns to provide more accurate answers. The Bersin team works with Sana to improve the detailed answers in commonly asked questions. During the 9-month pilot we already optimized hundreds of questions. Finally, we have developed “prompt chains” of more than 100 known use-cases in HR and management. Galileo literally prompts you to dive into a problem to learn more, explore vendors, read case studies, and learn best-practices. We will accelerate these solutions over time. The Josh Bersin Company uses Sana AI’s assistant builder to tailor Galileo’s instructions, specifically adapted to various HR roles and tuned with hundreds of archetypical HR scenarios. Who Is Sana and What is Sana AI? Sana is an AI company transforming how organizations learn and access knowledge. Their end-to-end learning platform is trusted by hundreds and thousands of users at leading enterprises like Kry/Livi, Merck, and Svea Solar. Backed by top-tier investors, operators, and founders, they have raised over $80m to date. The company’s headquarters are in Stockholm, Sweden, with offices in London and New York. Galileo is powered by Sana AI, the company’s newest product. To learn more about Sana, go to https://www.sanalabs.com/galileo. How Is Galileo Sold and Offered? Initially Galileo is being offered to Josh Bersin Company Corporate Members, enabling these organizations to empower and support their HR teams in an exciting new way. These individuals can access all the information, download all materials, take courses, and share the tools and information with their teams. In the coming months there will be a version of Galileo for members of The Josh Bersin Academy. We encourage anyone interested to register on our waitlist so that we can provide updates on availability. How Do I Get Access To Galileo Now? Please join our wait list, we are now rolling out Galileo to corporate members and look forward to supporting you.

Josh Bersin
2023年11月17日

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