美国领先企业联合成立了一个联盟，应对人工智能对技术岗位劳动力的影响由思科（Cisco）牵头，埃森哲（Accenture）、谷歌（Google）、国际商业机器公司（IBM）和微软（Microsoft）等主要行业参与者参与的人工智能 ICT 劳动力联盟（AI-Enabled ICT Workforce Consortium）AI-Enabled Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Workforce Consortium 旨在评估和减轻人工智能对技术工作的影响。该联盟旨在确定受人工智能进步影响的岗位所需的关键技能，为再培训和提高技能提供途径。该倡议借鉴了私营部门、顾问和政府的合作见解，为人工智能环境下的劳动力做好准备，强调了全球合作促进包容性技术未来的必要性。
人工智能 ICT 劳动力联盟致力于提供实际可行的洞见，发掘重新培训和提升技能的新机遇
思科牵头成立的AI赋能信息通信技术（ICT）工作力联盟，包括埃森哲、Eightfold、谷歌、IBM、Indeed、英特尔、微软和SAP等行业领导者的加入。该联盟将评估人工智能对科技岗位的影响，并为最可能受到AI影响的职业确定技能发展途径。 联盟的成立得到了美国-欧盟贸易与技术委员会人才成长工作组的推动，思科主席兼CEO Chuck Robbins在该工作组的参与，以及美国商务部的建议，起到了催化剂的作用。 顾问团包括美国劳工联盟-产业组织联合会、CHAIN5、美国通信工人联合会、DIGITALEUROPE、欧洲职业培训协会、可汗学院和SMEUnited等。
比利时鲁汶，2024年4月4日-- 思科（纳斯达克代码：CSCO）和另外八家行业领先公司包括埃森哲、Eightfold、谷歌、IBM、Indeed、英特尔、微软和SAP，以及六位顾问今天宣布，成立了致力于提升和重新培训最可能受到AI影响岗位的AI赋能ICT工作力联盟。该联盟受到美国-欧盟贸易与技术委员会人才成长工作组的启发，旨在探究AI对ICT岗位的影响，帮助工作者发现并参与相关培训计划，同时连接企业和具备相应技能、准备就绪的工作者。
作为私营部门的合作平台，联盟正评估AI如何改变工作岗位及所需技能，让工作者取得成功。首阶段工作成果将总结为一份提供给企业领导者和工作者实际建议的报告。未来几个月将公布更多详情。研究结果旨在为那些寻求为员工重新培训和提升技能的雇主提供实用的洞见和建议。
联盟成员涵盖了在AI前沿创新的企业，他们深知AI对劳动力市场的当前和未来影响。各成员企业已分别记录了AI带来的机遇与挑战。通过合作，这些组织能够汇聚见解，推荐行动计划，并在其广泛的影响领域内实施这些发现。
“人工智能正加速全球劳动力市场的变革，为私营部门提供了一个强大机会，帮助工作者重新培训和提升技能，以迎接未来，”思科执行副总裁兼首席人事、政策与目标官Francine Katsoudas表示。“我们新成立的AI赋能工作力联盟的任务是向组织提供关于AI对劳动力影响的知识，并装备工作者以相关技能。我们期待吸引更多利益相关方——包括政府、非政府组织和学术界——一同迈出确保AI革命惠及每个人的重要一步。”
联盟的工作受到了美国-欧盟贸易与技术委员会人才成长工作组的启发，思科主席兼CEO Chuck Robbins领导其技能培训工作流程的指导，以及美国商务部的建议。美国总统拜登、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩和欧洲理事会主席米歇尔于2021年6月成立了TTC，目的是通过合作和民主方法在贸易、技术和安全领域推进美国和欧盟的竞争力和繁荣。
“在美国商务部，我们致力于推动先进技术的发展，并深化与全球伙伴和盟友之间的贸易与投资关系。这项工作正帮助我们建立一个强大且具竞争力的经济体，由能够获得高质量、高薪、可维持家庭生活的未来工作的才华横溢的劳动力所推动。我们明白，经济安全与国家安全紧密相连。这就是我为何感到自豪地看到人才成长工作组的努力以及AI赋能ICT工作力联盟的成立，”美国商务部长Gina Raimondo表示。“我感激联盟成员加入这一努力，共同面对AI快速发展所带来的新型劳动力需求。这项工作将为这些工作的具体技能需求提供前所未有的见解。我希望这个联盟仅是一个开始，并且私营部门将其视为一个行动呼吁，确保我们的劳动力能够享受到AI带来的好处。”
AI赋能ICT工作力联盟的工作解决了对具备AI各方面技能训练的熟练劳动力的紧迫需求。联盟将利用其成员和顾问的力量，推荐和扩大包容性的重新培训和提升技能培训计划，以惠及多方利益相关者——学生、职业转换者、当前的IT工作者、雇主和教育者——大规模提升工作者以适应AI时代。
在其首阶段工作中，联盟将评估AI对56个ICT岗位角色的影响，并为受影响岗位提供培训建议。这些岗位角色根据Indeed Hiring Lab的数据，包括在2023年2月至2024年期间在美国和五个ICT劳动力最多的欧洲国家（法国、德国、意大利、西班牙和荷兰）获得最高岗位发布量的前45个ICT职位的80%。这些国家的ICT部门共计拥有1000万名ICT工作者，占据了行业的重要份额。
联盟成员普遍认识到，随着AI在商业的所有方面的加速融合，及时集结力量，建立一个包容性、能提供维持家庭生活机会的劳动力市场的重要性。联盟成员承诺，在将越来越多地整合人工智能技术的职业领域，开发工作者路径。为此，联盟成员设定了具有远见的目标，并通过技能发展和培训计划，在未来十年内对全球超过9500万人产生积极影响。联盟成员的目标包括：
思科承诺到2032年为2500万人提供网络安全和数字技能培训。
IBM将在2030年前为3000万人提供数字技能培训，包括200万人的AI技能。
英特尔计划到2030年为超过3000万人提供当前和未来工作的AI技能。
微软承诺到2025年为来自弱势社区的1000万人提供需求旺盛的数字技能培训和认证，为他们在数字经济中提供工作和生计机会。
SAP计划到2025年为全球200万人提供提升技能培训。
谷歌最近宣布投入2500万欧元，支持全欧洲人民的AI培训和技能提升。
埃森哲
“帮助组织识别技能差距并进行大规模快速培训是埃森哲的重点任务，这个联盟汇集了一系列致力于在我们社区中发展尖端技术、数据和AI技能的行业合作伙伴。在各个行业中，为与AI协同工作的人员进行重新培训至关重要。那些在技术投资中与学习投资同等重视的组织，不仅创造了职业发展路径，还能在市场中占据领先地位。” - 埃森哲首席领导力与人力资源官Ellyn Shook
Eightfold
“工作的动态和本质正在以前所未有的速度演变。Eightfold通过深入分析最受欢迎的职位，了解重新培训和提升技能的需求。通过其人才智能平台，我们为商业领袖提供了迅速适应不断变化的商业环境的能力。我们为能够为组织预备未来工作做出贡献而感到自豪。” - Eightfold AI首席执行官兼联合创始人Ashutosh Garg
谷歌
“谷歌坚信，技术创造的机遇应真正面向所有人。我们自豪地加入AI赋能工作力联盟，进一步推动我们使AI技能培训普及化的工作。我们致力于跨领域合作，确保不同背景的工作者都能有效利用AI，为面向未来的职位做好准备，获得新机会，在经济中茁壮成长。” - 谷歌成长计划创始人Lisa Gevelber
IBM
“IBM自豪地加入这个及时的企业主导倡议，通过汇集我们的共同专业知识和资源，为AI时代的劳动力做好准备。作为行业领袖，我们共同的责任是发展可信赖的技术，并为所有背景和经验水平的工作者提供学习新技能和提升现有技能的机会，以应对AI采纳改变工作方式并创造新职位的挑战。” - IBM欧洲中东非洲人力资源副总裁Gian Luigi Cattaneo
Indeed
“Indeed的使命是帮助人们找到工作。我们的研究表明，Indeed上今天发布的几乎每个职位，从卡车司机到医生到软件工程师，都将面临不同程度的受到基于GenAI的变革的影响。我们期待为工作力联盟的重要工作做出贡献。那些授权其员工学习新技能并获得与不断发展的AI工具的实践经验的公司，将加深他们的专业团队，提高员工留存率并扩大其合格候选人库。” - Indeed AI创新部门负责人Hannah Calhoon
英特尔
“作为全球AI创新的领导者，英特尔自豪地加入ICT工作力联盟，继续我们的努力，为所有人塑造一个包容和公平的技术未来。作为联盟的一员，我们将与行业领袖合作，分享最佳实践，创造可访问的学习机会，并与各方利益相关者协作，确保工作者掌握了迎接明天的技术技能。” - 微软人力资源法律副总裁兼副总法律顾问Amy Pannoni
SAP
“SAP自豪地加入这一努力，帮助为未来的工作准备我们的劳动力，并确保AI在企业和职位中的应用是相关的、可靠的、负责任的。面对我们不断变化的世界的复杂性，AI有潜力重塑行业、革新解决问题的方式，并释放前所未有的人类潜能，使我们能够构建一个更智能、更高效和更包容的劳动力。多年来，SAP支持了许多技能发展计划，我们期待作为联盟的一部分推动更多的学习机会、创新和积极变化。” - SAP副总裁兼全球开发学习负责人Nicole Helmer
关于思科
思科（纳斯达克代码：CSCO）是全球技术领袖，通过帮助我们的客户重新构想他们的应用、支持混合工作模式、保障企业安全、改造基础设施，并实现可持续发展目标，连接一切，让任何事情成为可能。在新闻室了解更多信息，并在X上关注我们@Cisco。
思科和思科标志是思科及/或其在美国和其他国家的关联公司的商标或注册商标。思科的商标列表可在www.cisco.com/go/trademarks查看。提到的第三方商标属于其各自所有者。使用“合作伙伴”一词并不意味着思科与任何其他公司之间存在合伙关系。
来源：思科公司
LEUVEN, Belgium, April 4, 2024 - Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) and a group of eight leading companies including Accenture, Eightfold, Google, IBM, Indeed, Intel, Microsoft and SAP as well as six advisors today announced the launch of the AI-Enabled Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Workforce Consortium focused on upskilling and reskilling roles most likely to be impacted by AI. The Consortium is catalyzed by the work of the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council's (TTC) Talent for Growth Task Force, with the goal of exploring AI's impact on ICT job roles, enabling workers to find and access relevant training programs, and connecting businesses to skilled and job-ready workers.
Working as a private sector collaborative, the Consortium is evaluating how AI is changing the jobs and skills workers need to be successful. The first phase of work will culminate in a report with actionable insights for business leaders and workers. Further details will be shared in the coming months. Findings will be intended to offer practical insights and recommendations to employers that seek ways to reskill and upskill their workers in preparation for AI-enabled environments.
Consortium members represent a cross section of companies innovating on the cutting edge of AI that also understand the current and impending impact of AI on the workforce. Individually, Consortium members have documented opportunities and challenges presented by AI. The collaborative effort enables their organizations to coalesce insights, recommend action plans, and activate findings within their respective broad spheres of influence.
"AI is accelerating the pace of change for the global workforce, presenting a powerful opportunity for the private sector to help upskill and reskill workers for the future," said Francine Katsoudas, Executive Vice President and Chief People, Policy & Purpose Officer, Cisco. "The mission of our newly unveiled AI-Enabled Workforce Consortium is to provide organizations with knowledge about the impact of AI on the workforce and equip workers with relevant skills. We look forward to engaging other stakeholders—including governments, NGOs, and the academic community—as we take this important first step toward ensuring that the AI revolution leaves no one behind."
The Consortium's work is inspired by the TTC's Talent for Growth Task Force and Cisco Chair and CEO Chuck Robbins' leadership of its skills training workstream, and input from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The TTC was established in June 2021 by U.S. President Biden, European Commission President von der Leyen, and European Council President Michel to promote U.S. and EU competitiveness and prosperity through cooperation and democratic approaches to trade, technology, and security.
"At the U.S. Department of Commerce, we're focused on fueling advanced technology and deepening trade and investment relationships with partners and allies around the world. This work is helping us build a strong and competitive economy, propelled by a talented workforce that's enabling workers to get into the good quality, high-paying, family-sustaining jobs of the future. We recognize that economic security and national security are inextricably linked. That's why I'm proud to see the efforts of the Talent for Growth Task Force continue with the creation of the AI-Enabled ICT Workforce Consortium," said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. "I am grateful to the consortium members for joining in this effort to confront the new workforce needs that are arising in the wake of AI's rapid development. This work will help provide unprecedented insight on the specific skill needs for these jobs. I hope that this Consortium is just the beginning, and that the private sector sees this as a call to action to ensure our workforces can reap the benefits of AI."
The AI-Enabled ICT Workforce Consortium's efforts address a business critical and growing need for a proficient workforce that is trained in various aspects of AI, including the skills to implement AI applications across business processes. The Consortium will leverage its members and advisors to recommend and amplify reskilling and upskilling training programs that are inclusive and can benefit multiple stakeholders – students, career changers, current IT workers, employers, and educators – in order to skill workers at scale to engage in the AI era.
In its first phase of work, the Consortium will evaluate the impact of AI on 56 ICT job roles and provide training recommendations for impacted jobs. These job roles include 80% of the top 45 ICT job titles garnering the highest volume of job postings for the period February 2023-2024 in the United States and five of the largest European countries by ICT workforce numbers (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands) according to Indeed Hiring Lab. Collectively, these countries account for a significant segment of the ICT sector, with a combined total of 10 million ICT workers.
Consortium members universally recognize the urgency and importance of their combined efforts with the acceleration of AI in all facets of business and the need to build an inclusive workforce with family-sustaining opportunities. Consortium members commit to developing worker pathways particularly in job sectors that will increasingly integrate artificial intelligence technology. To that end, Consortium members have established forward thinking goals with skills development and training programs to positively impact over 95 million individuals around the world over the next 10 years. Consortium member goals include:
Cisco to train 25 million people with cybersecurity and digital skills by 2032.
IBM to skill 30 million individuals by 2030 in digital skills, including 2 million in AI.
Intel to empower more than 30 million people with AI skills for current and future jobs by 2030.
Microsoft to train and certify 10 million people from underserved communities with in-demand digital skills for jobs and livelihood opportunities in the digital economy by 2025.
SAP to upskill two million people worldwide by 2025.
Google has recently announced EUR 25 million in funding to support AI training and skills for people across Europe.
Accenture
"Helping organizations identify skills gaps and train people at speed and scale is a major priority for Accenture, and this consortium brings together an impressive ecosystem of industry partners committed to growing leading-edge technology, data and AI skills within our communities. Reskilling people to work with AI is paramount in every industry. Organizations that invest as much in learning as they do in the technology not only create career pathways, they are well positioned to lead in the market." - Ellyn Shook, chief leadership & human resources officer, Accenture
Eightfold
"The dynamics of work and the very essence of work are evolving at an unprecedented pace. Eightfold examines the most sought-after job roles, delving into the needs for reskilling and upskilling. Through its Talent Intelligence Platform, it empowers business leaders to adapt swiftly to the changing business environment. We take pride in contributing to the creation of a knowledgeable and responsible resource that assists organizations in preparing for the future of work." - Ashutosh Garg, CEO and Co-Founder, Eightfold AI
Google
"Google believes the opportunities created by technology should truly be available to everyone. We're proud to join the AI-Enabled Workforce Consortium, which will advance our work to make AI skills training universally accessible. We're committed to collaborating across sectors to ensure workers of all backgrounds can use AI effectively and develop the skills needed to prepare for future-focused jobs, qualify for new opportunities, and thrive in the economy." - Lisa Gevelber, Founder, Grow with Google
IBM
"IBM is proud to join this timely business-led initiative, which brings together our shared expertise and resources to prepare the workforce for the AI era. Our collective responsibility as industry leaders is to develop trustworthy technologies and help provide workers—from all backgrounds and experience levels—access to opportunities to reskill and upskill as AI adoption changes ways of working and creates new jobs." - Gian Luigi Cattaneo, Vice President, Human Resources, IBM EMEA
Indeed
"Indeed's mission is to help people get jobs. Our research shows that virtually every job posted on Indeed today, from truck driver to physician to software engineer, will face some level of exposure to GenAI-driven change. We look forward to contributing to the Workforce Consortium's important work. The companies who empower their employees to learn new skills and gain on-the-job experience with evolving AI tools will deepen their bench of experts, boost retention and expand their pool of qualified candidates." - Hannah Calhoon, Head of AI Innovation at Indeed
Intel
"At Intel, our purpose is to create world-changing technology that improves the lives of every person on the planet, and we believe bringing AI everywhere is key for businesses and society to flourish. To do so, we must provide access to AI skills for everyone. Intel is committed to expanding digital readiness by collaborating with 30 countries, empowering 30,000 institutions, and training 30 million people for current and future jobs by 2030. Working alongside industry leaders as part of this AI-enabled ICT workforce consortium will help upskill and reskill the workforce for the digital economy ahead." – Christy Pambianchi, Executive Vice President and Chief People Officer at Intel Corporation
Microsoft
"As a global leader in AI innovation, Microsoft is proud to join the ICT Workforce Consortium and continue our efforts to shape an inclusive and equitable technology future for all. As a member of the consortium, we will work with industry leaders to share best practices, create accessible learning opportunities, and collaborate with stakeholders to ensure that workers are equipped with the technology skills of tomorrow," - Amy Pannoni, Vice President and Deputy General Counsel, HR Legal at Microsoft
SAP
"SAP is proud to join this effort to help prepare our workforce for the jobs of the future and ensure AI is relevant, reliable, and responsible across businesses and roles. As we navigate the complexities of our ever-evolving world, AI has the potential to reshape industries, revolutionize problem-solving, and unlock unprecedented levels of human potential, enabling us to create a more intelligent, efficient, and inclusive workforce. Over the years, SAP has supported many skills building programs, and we look forward to driving additional learning opportunities, innovation, and positive change as part of the consortium." - Nicole Helmer, Vice President & Global Head of Development Learning at SAP
About Cisco
Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) is the worldwide technology leader that securely connects everything to make anything possible. Our purpose is to power an inclusive future for all by helping our customers reimagine their applications, power hybrid work, secure their enterprise, transform their infrastructure, and meet their sustainability goals. Discover more on The Newsroom and follow us on X at @Cisco.
Cisco and the Cisco logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of Cisco and/or its affiliates in the U.S. and other countries. A listing of Cisco's trademarks can be found at www.cisco.com/go/trademarks. Third-party trademarks mentioned are the property of their respective owners. The use of the word partner does not imply a partnership relationship between Cisco and any other company.
SOURCE Cisco Systems, Inc.
Future of Work
2024年04月05日
Future of Work
The best HR & People Analytics articles of February 2024
I’m writing the introduction to this month’s compendium in New York, ahead of two events this week in the Big Apple.
Firstly, I’m attending Gloat Live (thank you Ruslan Tovbulatov and the Gloat team), where I’ll be hosting a panel of three chief people officers – Michael Fraccaro Tanuj Kapilashrami and Tamla Oates-Forney– as well as sharing Insight222 research on building a data driven culture in HR. Also taking place this week is the Winter Peer Meeting for North American member companies of the Insight222 People Analytics Program, which is being hosted by Sally Masseyand Courtney McMahon at Colgate-Palmolive’s headquarters on Park Avenue.
After a weekend back in the UK for my birthday, I’ll be heading back to the US for the Wharton People AnalyticsConference on March 14 and 15. If you’re going to Gloat Live or Wharton PAC, then please do come and say hello. I was also in Switzerland a few days ago for People Analytics WorldZürich (thanks to Barry Swales Ralf Buechsenschuss), and just a fortnight ago, Rob Etheridgeand his team kindly hosted the European Peer Meeting of the Insight222People Analytics Program at HSBC’s headquarters in London – you can read some of takeaways from London here. It’s certainly a busy period of travel - and lots of vapour trail!
Attendees at the Insight222 Q1 European Peer Meeting for members of the People Analytics Program, hosted by HSBC in London
Some of you have written to me to advise that you weren't able to join the recent Insight222 webinar on Turning Insight into Impact with People Analytics. You can find out more by scolling down to the Video of the Month below or access the recording by clicking on the image below.
Looking for a new role in people analytics or HR tech?
Before we get to this month’s collection of resources, I’d like to highlight once again the wonderful resource created by Richard Rosenowand the One Model team of open roles in people analytics and HR technology, which now numbers close to 500 roles.
Share the love!
Enjoy reading the collection of resources for February and, if you do, please share some data driven HR love with your colleagues and networks. Thanks to the many of you who liked, shared and/or commented on January’s compendium (including those in the Comments below).
If you enjoy a weekly dose of curated learning (and the Digital HR Leaders podcast), the Insight222 newsletter: Digital HR Leaders newsletter is published every Tuesday – subscribe here.
2024 HR TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS
DELOITTE – 2024 Global Human Capital Trends: Thriving beyond boundaries – Human performance in a boundaryless world
The opening words of Deloitte’s 2024 Global Human Capital Trends perfectly capture the opportunity and challenge for HR today: “We’re operating in a world where work is no longer defined by jobs, the workplace is no longer a specific place, many workers are no longer traditional employees, and human resources is no longer a siloed function.” The seven trends covered in the report, each with its own chapter, are: (1) Embracing human sustainability, (2) Moving beyond productivity to measure human performance, (3) Balancing privacy with transparency to build trust, (4) Overcoming the imagination deficit, (5) Creating digital playgrounds to explore, experiment and play, (6) Cultivating workplace microcultures, and (7) Making the shift to a boundaryless HR. The report, which has 122 pages, is packed full of thought-provoking insights, visualisations and data – including FIG 1 and FIG 2 below. Kudos to the authors: Susan Cantrell Corrie Commisso Julie Duda Kraig Eaton Jason Flynn John Forsythe Michael Griffiths John Guziak Lauren Kirby David Mallon Mari Marcotte Shannon Poynton Nicole Scoble-Williams GAICD Yves Van Durme and Matteo Zanza.
We’re operating in a world where work is no longer defined by jobs, the workplace is no longer a specific place, many workers are no longer traditional employees, and human resources is no longer a siloed function.
FIG 1: In the era of human performance, business and human outcomes are mutually reinforcing (Source: Deloitte 2024 Global Human Capital Trends)
FIG 2: Source: Deloitte 2024 Global Human Capital Trends
ERNEST NG - What are the most Important things HR will need to focus on in 2024? | ALLISON BAUM GATES - Six predictions for the future of health, wealth, and work in 2024 | LYNDA GRATTON - Predictions for the Workplace of 2025, Revisited
Continuing with the prediction vibe, here are two more thoughtful reflections on what lies ahead and one reflection, 15 years on, from Lynda Gratton on her previous predictions about the future of work. (1) Ernest Ng, PhD, now at HiredScore– who Workdayhas just announced their intent to acquire, highlights a number of predictions for the year ahead combining a focus on efficiency, incorporating AI into the way we work and supporting employees to navigate change. (2) Allison Baum Gates, General Partner at SemperVirens Venture Capital combines the future of health, wealth and work into her predictions including: “AI’s primary impact in 2024 will be accelerating a shift to skills-based organizations.” (3) Lynda Gratton reflects on her Predictions for the Workforce of 2025, which she originally made in 2010 covering what she got right, where she misjudged, and what she learned about experimenting.
It will be wise to expect the unexpected. And when it comes, be prepared to observe closely, pivot quickly, and experiment widely.
HYBRID, GENERATIVE AI AND THE FUTURE OF WORK
ALEX CAMP, PHIL KIRSCHNER, LAURA PINEAULT, AND PATRICK SIMON - Hybrid can be healthy for your organization—when done right
Research from McKinsey suggesting that a fully remote organisation can demonstrate a level of organisational health that rivals, if not exceeds, the performance of most traditional companies. In the article, Alexandra Camp Phil Kirschner Laura Pineault and Dr. Patrick Simon highlight six priorities for companies aspiring to sustain a flexible or highly distributed workplace in parallel with top organisational health: (1) Remove ambiguity about working practices. (2) Reset performance expectations. (3) Be transparent. (4) Be purposeful about where people work. (5) Foster trust and a sense of support. (6) Test and learn.
Fully remote organizations can demonstrate a level of health that rivals, if not exceeds, the performance of most traditional companies.
FIG 3: Six priorities to sustain a flexible or highly distributed workplace (Source: McKinsey)
KELLY JONES - Unlocking the Power of Hybrid Work: 5 Guiding Principles from Cisco's 3-Year Study Article | White Paper | Executive Summary
Kelly Jones, Cisco's Chief People Officer, unveils the findings of a three year Future of Work study by Cisco’s People Intelligence Team, which was designed to explore the employee experience prior to the global pandemic, through the pandemic, to office re-opening and beyond. Kelly's article summarises five guiding principles for hybrid work including reimagining the office to create meaningful moments and encouraging leaders to be intentional with their attention. The executive summary also outlines five key findings and recommendations (see FIG 4): (1) People may be choosing to work from home, but in person touchpoints are still essential. (2) Effective collaboration is a balancing act. (3) Flexibility and choice positively influence engagement. (4) Leaders might be struggling the most. (5) Leader attention is the #1 predictor of engagement. Thanks to Roxanne Bisby Davis for highlighting.
Make the office a magnet, not a mandate
FIG 4: Source - Choice is Critical in the Future of Work (Cisco, 2024)
MICHAEL ARENA AND PHIL ARKCOLL - Enabling High-Velocity Teams
As Michael Arena and Philip Arkcoll outline, the significance of teams has never been greater, yet their effectiveness depends on being able to operate with both speed and focus. The article presents the findings of their research as to why focused teams outperform, and then provides five practices designed for teams to imbue more intentional collaboration: (1) Leverage collaboration phases. (2) Focused team structure. (3) Minimise frequent team shifts. (4) Actively manage dependencies and distractions. (5) Formation of integration teams.
With the rapid advancements in technology today, optimal team performance and speed matter disproportionately in ensuring market success.
FIG 5: Internally and externally focused agile teams (Source: Michael Arena and Philip Arkcoll)
GAD LEVANON | SHRM & THE BURNING GLASS INSTITUTE - Generative Artificial Intelligence and the Workforce
The Burning Glass Institute continues to publish fascinatingly insightful reports about the world of work. In their latest report, in collaboration with SHRM, Gad Levanon investigates how GenAI will impact industries, companies, and jobs, and reshape the economy. It reinforces that GenAI will have the greatest impact on high-skilled, professional work, provides indications of how GenAI will impact the economy (see FIG 6) and provides four actions for CHROs to: (1) Evaluate your organisation’s composition, (2) Evaluate the roles within your organisation, (3) Consider your current talent pipeline, and (4) Develop a game plan.
In the coming years, GenAI will both drive massive boosts in productivity and necessitate layoffs. Begin planning ways to leverage GenAI’s productivity benefits and prepare for the disruptions to your workforce through a combination of upskilling investments to give workers the skills to remain relevant and reskilling programs to reposition workers in areas of more stable demand.
FIG 6: Sequence of economic disruptions caused by GenAI (Source: SHRM and The Burning Glass Institute)
FIG 7: Implications of GenAI for HR functions (Source: SHRM and The Burning Glass Institute)
ANA KREACIC, AMY LASATER-WILLE, LUCIA URIBE, RAVIN JESUTHASAN, JOHN ROMEO, AND SIMON LUONG - How Generative AI Is Changing The Future Of Work | TED LIU, CARINA DENG, AND KELLY MONAHAN - How Generative AI Adds Value to the Future of Work
Two studies analysing the impact of GenAI on the world of work. The first by Ana Kreacic Amy Lasater-Wille Lucia Uribe Ravin Jesuthasan, CFA, FRSA John Romeo and Simon Luong for the Oliver Wyman Forum finds that GenAI could add up to $20 trillion to global GDP by 2030 and save 300 billion work hours a year. It also finds that while 96% of employees believe AI can help them in their current job, 60% are afraid it will eventually automate them out of work. There are numerous other insights and visualisations in the 100 page report including a projection of the likely productivity gains at work from GenAI in the next decade (see FIG 8). The second study, by Ted Liu Carina Deng and Kelly Monahan, Ph.D.for the UpworkResearch Institute, provides a comprehensive analysis of the initial impact of GenAI on the Upwork marketplace for independent talent. It finds that the impacts may already being felt with reductions in demand for work such as writing and translation and a surge in demand for skills associated with GenAI such as data science and analytics.
Generative AI could add up to $20 trillion to global GDP by 2030 and save 300 billion work hours a year.
FIG 8: Phases of generative AI’s impact on productivity at work (Source: Oliver Wyman Forum)
GEORGE WESTERMAN, SAM RANSBOTHAM, AND CHIARA FARRONATO - Find the AI Approach That Fits the Problem You’re Trying to Solve | TOMAS CHAMORRO-PREMUZIC - 7 Strategies to Get Your Employees On Board with GenAI | ANDY BALDWIN - 3 Ways to Embed DEI Into Your Company’s AI Strategy | MARTHA CURIONI – Why is Explainable AI Important for HR? | BRETT DYKES - Why AI Isn’t Going To Solve All Your Data Culture Problems
There may be a far degree of hype around GenAI, but it does seem to be accelerating the engagement of HR leaders and professionals with AI, and is also leading to an increasing number of thoughtful studies and articles on AI, including these five resources: (1) George Westerman Sam Ransbotham and Chiara Farronatooutline four categories of advanced analytics – GenAI, traditional deep learning, econometrics, and rule-based automation, and offer five questions to ask about AI’s constraints including: What is the cost of being wrong? (2) As Dr Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic observes: “the human factor — people and culture — will drive the adoption of AI, or lack thereof.” Tomas then presents seven strategies to get employees on board including i) focusing on the problem that GenAI can solve, and ii) being proactive about ethical concerns. (3) In his article for Harvard Business Review, Andy Baldwin outlines three ways to incorporate DEI into AI strategy through: i) embedding DEI into the design of your AI systems; ii) incorporating DEI into any AI-related upskilling programs; and iii) using AI as an opportunity to boost DEI. (4) Martha Curioni defines explainable AI and explains why it is critical to HR so it can provide transparency, build trust, mitigate bias and enable data driven decision making. (5) Finally, Brent Dykes cautions that while a recent study found that GenAI had catalysed a dramatic rise in the number of companies that reported they had ‘created a data-driven organization’ (from 23.9 percent in 2023 to 48.1 percent in 2024), AI is not a silver bullet for data culture. He illustrates this (see FIG 9) by referencing a study a European bank did to assess its own data culture, before highlighting two proven ways to build a data culture: executive sponsorship and role-modelling, and talent.
As with any aspect of digital transformation, the effective deployment of generative AI will depend less on technological capability than on human adaptability
FIG 9: Source: Brent Dykes, Analytics Hero
PEOPLE ANALYTICS
MARIËLLE SONNENBERG, FEDERICO BECHINI, SIETSE SCHRÖDER, AND CAITLIN VAN MIL - Our Real-Life Journey with GenAI in Skills and Talent Management (with code!!) | ADAM MCKINNON – Introducing Lex – Australian Employment Law Support AI | ALEC LEVENSON - A killer app with huge upsides and dangerous downsides: Applying AI to People Analytics
Two examples of GenAI in People Analytics in practice – and an article by Alec Levenson on AI in people analytics. (1) the Wolters Kluwer talent analytics team of Mariëlle Sonnenberg, PhD Federico Bechini Sietse Schröder and Caitlin van Mil share a case study of using GenAI to provide the foundation of their work to transition to a skills-based organisation. The article shares learnings from their journey (and the code!) including tips around data security, prompts, and system testing. (2) Adam McKinnon, PhD. presents Lex – an AI chatbot that has been trained on Australian workplace legislation. As Adam explains, Lex has been trained not to make up answers, and it should refuse to answer any question that cannot be answered using the legal documents it has been trained on. (3) Alec Levenson addresses the potential upsides and risks of applying AI to PA before providing a roadmap for ethical and effective application.
A human- and science-based perspective on any People Analytics model’s predictions is always needed, whether AI is applied or not.
PIETRO MAZZOLENI - Unlocking People Data: Lessons from Transforming IBM's Data Platform to Elevate People Analytics - The Why and the What | JON LESTER - Creating the future of human resources
Pietro Mazzoleni presents the first edition of what promises to be an interesting and insightful new LinkedIn newsletter, People Data Platform, which will explore the evolution of IBM's internal people data platform and its role in fostering data democratisation and people analytics. The first instalment covers the what and the why, and also provides an overview of Workforce 360 (W360 – see FIG 10), IBM’s internal people data platform. Pietro explains that the initial focus for W360 was (1) to digitalise People Scorecard, IBM´s main talent dashboard that measures the health of the workforce, and (2) to scale IBM’s advanced AI solutions like Job Recommendation, Attrition Risk Analysis, and Compensation Advisor. I recommend reading Pietro’s article alongside the second article, featuring Jon Lester on how in an initial pilot in IBM Consulting, a digital AI assistant (HiRo) saved 12,000 hours in one quarter, and halved the quarterly promotion process from 10 to 5 weeks.
FIG 10: Benefits of Workforce 360 (Source: IBM, Pietro Mazzoleni)
WILLIS JENSEN - Why Is It So Hard to Get Finance and HR Aligned? | JACKSON ROATCH - The Behavioral Economics of Return to Office | LYDIA WU - The Problem with “I Don’t Disagree” in People Analytics | JARED VALDRON - An FAQ on Generative AI in People Analytics | ANSHUL SHEOPURI - People Operations As A Critical Differentiator For Employee Experience | JUSTIN PURL - The People Analytics Method: Why TikTok's Head of Global People Analytics prioritizes context not control
As has also been the case in recent months, February saw a number of articles from current and recent people analytics leaders. These act as a spur and inspiration to the field. Six are highlighted here. (1) Willis Jensenboils down the traditional disconnect between HR and Finance teams on headcount: “There are some fundamental differences in counting the number of people (headcount) versus counting the amount of worker productivity (FTE) and both are necessary for different goals.” (2) Jackson Roatchanalyses the return to office topic through the lens of behavioural economics. (3) Lydia Wubreaks down why hearing “I don’t disagree” is a problem for people analytics, and in doing so highlights the importance of building trust with key stakeholders. (4) Jared Valdronprovides a set of answers to 18 frequently asked questions about GenAI in people analytics including i)) Is generative AI a good co-pilot for programming? ii) How will generative AI change the People Analytics job market? (5) Anshul Sheopurihighlights five areas where providing a frictionless experience is key to a successful EX program including i) Design with the user in mind and build for scale, and ii) Trusted data enables a solid foundation and responsible AI delivers personalised experiences. (6) Justin Purl Head of Global People Analytics of TikTok, introduces The People Analytics Method (see FIG 11) as a scientific approach for accumulating context that delivers impactful insights and supports HR decision-making
While it can be challenging to measure the financial impact of HR projects, that shouldn’t stop HR from trying to build those business cases.
FIG 11: The People Analytics Method (Source: Justin Purl)
Two key parts of The People Analytics Method are understanding context and engaging employees.
THE EVOLUTION OF HR, LEARNING, AND DATA DRIVEN CULTURE
J. PUCKETT, VINCIANE BEAUCHENE, PATRICK ERKER, AND ZHDAN SHAKIROV – Is Your Upskilling Program Paying Off
Measuring the Return on Learning Investment is arguably the Holy Grail of upskilling programs, but according to this article by BCG it is in fact possible. In their article, J. Puckett Vinciane Beauchene C. Patrick G. E. and Ƶhdan Shakirovpresent a three-step approach: (1) Identify the desired business impact upfront. (2) Define the metrics for holding the program accountable to that impact and measuring progress. (3) Determine whether the targeted impact has been achieved.
Before embarking on any upskilling program, organizations first need to establish the business impact they will measure after the program is over.
FIG 12: Metrics for assessing the impact of learning programs (Source: BCG)
DAVE ULRICH AND HARRISON JAMES - How to Ensure that Human Capability Investments Deliver Stakeholder Value
As Dave Ulrich and Harrison James explain in their article, organisations typically rely on benchmarking and best practices to evaluate the return from human capital investments. They argue that these methods are often limited and do not provide the specific guidance to impact the business results of individual companies. Their article sets out an alternative: an Organization Guidance System (OGS), which begins by identifying the stakeholder outcomes relevant in your company as a precursor to then determining through providing an opportunity score (see FIG 13) for which human capability initiatives best deliver those outcomes.
FIG 13: Source: Dave Ulrich, The RBL Group
WORKFORCE PLANNING, ORG DESIGN, AND SKILLS-BASED ORGANISATIONS
MARC EFFRON - Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze? Questions About Becoming a Skills-based Organization
As Marc Effron of The Talent Strategy Group highlights in his remarkable must-read article, there have been many claims made by consulting firms and technology providers about the case for shifting to being a skills-based organisation. In the article, Marc examines these claims, asking and answering 17 questions about skills-based organisations. The questions include: (1) If a skills-based approach is needed, why is it needed? (2) What changes will my organisation have to make to become a skill-based organisation? (3) Is there any proof that a skills-based approach delivers results? (4) Will AI and technology solutions better enable companies to track, manage and match skills? (5) How predictively accurate are skills in determining performance? Whatever side of the skills-based organisation debate you are on, I highly recommend reading Marc’s article.
At best, shifting to a skills-based environment can help some people in some situations at a large cost. It is likely best suited to industries where there is financial largess including pharmaceutical, banking, and larger consumer products firms. At worst, it reflects HR’s continued pursuit of novelty with the giddy support of technology and consulting firms that are all-too willing to promote and enable this questionable solution.
SCOTT REIDA - Draft priority role competency needs over time using ChatGPT4 and Tableau
A practical and technical guide from Scott Reida a workforce strategist at AWS, as he demonstrates how to use ChatGPT to drive talent intelligence by identifying current and future developments for key roles within an organisation. Scott visualises the outputs from ChatGPT in Tableau over a time horizon of ten years using the example of competencies for a data scientist.
FIG 14: Source – Scott Reida (access here)
EMPLOYEE LISTENING, EMPLOYEE EXPERIENCE, AND EMPLOYEE WELLBEING
ALICE DAMONTE, DANIEL MORALES, AND SARAH TOBEY - Employee listening programs and how to keep employees talking | IT SURVEY GROUP - What’s on the Horizon? Three Trends That Will Shape Employee Listening in 2024
Alice Damonte Daniel Morales and Sarah Tobeyfrom McKinsey’s internal people analytics and measurement team share learnings from Pulse, their continuous listening program. This capability has already enabled the team to shape more than 300 different initiatives since it was established three years ago. Their article focuses on two key elements of a successful employee listening program: (1) Making it easy and meaningful for employees to participate, which is enabled by providing transparency through firm-wide readouts, community dialogues, and individualised insights with support. (2) Making it straightforward for leaders to listen and act, which the team enable through ‘care packages’ to help leaders focus their attention on what matters most. For readers that enjoy this, I also recommend the second article, which features EX/HR leaders such as Kristin Saboe, Ph.D. Caitie Jacobson Stephanie Andel, PhD Patrick Gallen, MSOD Madison Beard and Ronald Ivan Dela Cruz forecasting three key trends for employee listening in 2024.
To ensure an employee listening channel is sufficiently well stocked with timely insights, it must be easy and meaningful for employees to participate, and straightforward for leaders to listen and act.
FIG 15: Source: McKinsey
FIG 16: Three key trends shaping employee listening in 2024 (Source: IT Survey Group)
LEADERSHIP AND CULTURE
AMY C. LEWIS, ANDREA DERLER, CUTHBERT CHOW, MANDA WINLAW, AND DANI HAIG – Designing Impactful Teams: Data-backed insights about effective team size
What does team size have to do with designing high-performing teams? That was the exam question, the Visier Inc.team of Andrea Derler, Ph.D. Cuthbert Chow Manda Winlaw and Dani Haigsought to answer in a collaborative study with Amy C. Lewis, PhD Professor of Management at the College of Business at Texas A&M University-San Antonio. Key findings include: (1) Most people work in teams of six to ten. (2) Team size varies by the nature of the work. (3) Smaller teams have more high performers. (4) Smaller teams have lower resignation rates (see FIG 17). The report has some helpful insights for those studying team effectiveness and involved in organisational design work.
FIG 17: Smaller teams have lower resignation rates (Source: Visier)
SPENCER HARRISON AND KRISTIE ROGERS - Building Culture From the Middle Out
The premise of a study by Spencer Harrisonand Kristie Rogersis for a business to harness the power of culture, it needs managers and team leaders to go beyond believing that they are responsible for culture to actively building it. Their research finds that managers that successfully achieve this are able to link the ‘big-C’ culture of their organisation (e.g. the official set of values) with the ‘small-c’ culture that plays out in the narrower and vibrant daily patterns of interaction (see FIG 18). The article highlights four successful strategies: (1) Endorse big-C culture through celebration and preservation of select features. (2) Endorse big-C culture by learning from other managers. (3) Enrich small-c culture through cultural innovations. (4) Enrich small-c culture by empowering employees to innovate.
FIG 18: Endorse and Enrich Your Way to Corporate Culture (Source: Harrison and Rogers)
JOSH BERSIN - How to Actually Execute a 4-Day Workweek | DOUGLAS BROOM - Four-day work week trial in Spain leads to healthier workers, less pollution | BENJAMIN LAKER – How Far-Reaching Could the Four-Day Workweek Become? AVA MARTINEZ – A 3-Day Workweek Could Complicate The Future of Work
Four articles on the four-day week, a concept that seems to be gathering momentum with pilots suggesting that business outcomes can be maintained while employee wellbeing and retention is enhanced. (1) Josh Bersinpresents findings from his study that finds companies need to undertake substantial work redesign to reduce hours while maintaining business outcomes to make the four-day week work. (2) Writing for the World Economic Forum, Douglas Broom shares results from a four-day work week pilot in Valencia, which found that giving workers an extra day off a week actually increases productivity, boosts physical and mental health and reduces CO2 emissions. (3) Benjamin Laker, who has been studying the four-day week for a number of years, outlines the findings from a UK study on the four-day week, which finds that 92% of the 61 companies that participated in the pilot are continuing with the four-day week. Laker also highlights that research conducted before and after the trial revealed that 39% of employees experienced lower stress levels and 71% noticed less burnout while working shorter weeks (see FIG 19). (4) From being one of the CEO outliers on return to the office, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon suggests that AI may precipitate a future of work where the working week is three days – as reported by Ava Martinez for The HR Digest.
FIG 19: Source: The UK’s four-day week pilot (Autonomy)
DIVERSITY, EQUITY, INCLUSION, AND BELONGING
SERENA HUANG - DEI Funding Cuts? You Need Data Analytics and AI More Than Ever | BOGDAN YAMKOVENKO AND STEPHEN TAVARES - To Understand Whether Your Company Is Inclusive, Map How Your Employees Interact
With many companies and institutions – particularly in the US – cutting back on their DEI programs, a recent edition of Serena H. Huang, Ph.D. From Data to Action newsletter is well timed. Serena explains how people data and analytics can help reverse this trend and highlights a number of helpful resources. One of the resources Serena highlights is a seminal article by Bogdan Yamkovenko, PhD and Stephen Tavares first published in Harvard Business Review in 2017. It provides a case study of a professional services firm that used organisational network analysis to identify that that women were largely shut out of its decision making, idea sharing, and emotional support networks (see FIG 20). For more from Serena, please tune into her recent conversation with me on the Digital HR Leaders podcast: How to Enhance Your Career in People Analytics.
FIG 20: 3 ways to look at employee networks at one professional services firm (Source: Heidrick & Struggles)
HR TECH VOICES
Much of the innovation in the field continues to be driven by the vendor community, and I’ve picked out a few resources from February that I recommend readers delve into:
LOÏC MICHEL | 365TALENTS – Your Absolute How to Guide to Skills Management – A handy guide to skills management from Loïc Michel and the 365Talentsteam featuring guidance and case studies.
ALICIA ROACH - Let's Talk About Lay-Offs – Alicia Roach of eQ8 frames the recent spate of layoffs from companies posting impressive profits in the context of culture and workforce planning (see FIG 21). As Alicia writes: “We can do better. We must do better.”
FIG 21: Scenario modelling and external shocks (Source: Alicia Roach, eQ8)
RICHARD ROSENOW - Embracing Remote Work for Senior People Analytics Roles: A Strategic Imperative – Richard Rosenow of One Model makes a persuasive case for why every organisation looking to lead in People Analytics should consider making their senior roles, if not all of their People Analytics roles, remote eligible. For more on people analytics jobs, check out this analysis of executive and director people analytics roles by Patrick Coolen.
BLEDI TASKA - SkyHive Data Reveals Greater Gender Disparity in the Generative AI Sector Compared to the Tech Industry at Large – Bledi Taska, Ph.D. presents SkyHive data and key findings on the impact of Generative Al on the U.S. job market and economy. His analysis highlights the urgent need for reskilling and upskilling initiatives to mitigate inequality in the workforce. Thanks to Todd Raphael for highlighting.
HAKKI OZDENOREN - Move Over HR, AI Is the New Recruiter! – Hakki Ozdenorenpresents data and analysis from Revelio Labs, which finds that HR job postings mentioning AI are surging ahead of other listings. This underscores the need for HR professionals to reskill in areas like AI and data literacy. Thanks to Ben Zweig for highlighting.
FIG 22: AI related job postings in HR roles are on the rise (Source: Revelio Labs)
MARC RAMOS - Learning & Development is the New Research & Development - How the Learning Function Can be the AI Accelerator Part 1 | Part 2 – Cornerstone OnDemand CLO Marc Steven Ramos presents his two-part series on the L&D function investigating, testing and extending the use of AI within organisations – includes FIG 23 on blending R&D and L&D approaches.
FIG 23: Complementing R&D and L&D approaches (Source: Marc Ramos)
PODCASTS OF THE MONTH
In another month of high-quality podcasts, I’ve selected five gems for your aural pleasure: (you can also check out the latest episodes of the Digital HR Leaders Podcast – see ‘From My Desk’ below):
HEMERSON PAES, COLE NAPPER, AND SCOTT HINES - Active & Passive ONA Use Cases at Roche – Hemerson Paes joins hosts Cole Napperand Scott Hines, PhDon the Directionally Correct podcast to share his work rolling out active and passive ONA applications at scale at Roche.
BOB SUTTON AND ADAM GRANT - How to become a “friction-fixer” – Leading management thinker and organisational psychologist at Stanford, Bob Sutton, joins Adam Grant on ReThinking to discuss his new book, The Friction Project, on how to diagnose and then fix workplace problems. Unmissable.
JASON CORSELLO AND LAURIE RUETTIMANN - HR Technology 2024 – Jason Corsello from Acadian Ventures joins Laurie Ruettimannon Punk Rock HR to discuss the state of the HR tech market, the potential and concerns of AI, and the importance of future skills.
ANDREW SAIDY AND CHRIS RAINEY - Why a Talent Marketplace is Win-Win for Employees and Organisations - Andrew Saidy joins Christopher Rainey of HR Leaders to discuss his work at Ubisoft, where skills are becoming the currency for hiring, mobility and promotions rather than solely relying on degrees or tenure.
STEPHANIE DENINO, KIRAN MENON, AND DEBKANYA DHAR VYAVAHARKAR - Moving EX from boardroom to office floor - Stephanie Denino of TI PEOPLE speaks to hosts of the EXtra Extra podcast Kiran Menon and Debkanya Dhar Vyavaharkar about the findings of the State of EX report, and applying agile principles towards shipping EX ideas out of the boardroom and onto the office floor.
VIDEO OF THE MONTH
NAOMI VERGHESE, ALAN SUSI AND DAVID GREEN | INSIGHT222 - How Leading Companies shift People Analytics from Insight to Impact
Please forgive the mild case of self-indulgence, but the ‘Video of the Month’ is actually a webinar we recently hosted at Insight222based on our People Analytics Trends research, which was informed by a survey of 271 participating companies. In the webinar, Naomi Vergheseand I walked through the findings from the Insight222 People Analytics Trends research, unveiling the distinctive characteristics of ABCD Teams that propel organisations to new heights. Naomi and I were joined by Alan Susi, VP and Global Head of Organisational Analytics and People Insights at S&P Global. Alan shared insights on how the firm successfully elevated their approach to people analytics, turning data into tangible business outcomes. You can access the webinar here – or by clicking the image below.
BOOK OF THE MONTH
JOHN WINSOR AND JIN H. PAIK – Open Talent: Leveraging the Global Workforce to Solve Your Biggest Challenges
In Open Talent, John Winsor and Jin Paik advocate that companies need to shift to a more ‘distributed’ structure that revolves around talent (people) and projects in a networked organisation. In this model, talent is assembled from both inside the organisation (via an internal talent marketplace) and outside (via external talent clouds). The authors reveal how they implemented open talent strategies, and how other companies can adopt these techniques. A thoughtful and insightful read.
RESEARCH REPORT OF THE MONTH
SHELLEY XIN LI, FRANK NAGLE, AND ANER ZHOU - Mapping Organizational-Level Networks Using Individual-Level Connections: Evidence from Online Professional Networks
An interesting paper by Shelley Xin Li, Frank Nagle, and Aner Zhou for the Harvard Business School Strategy Unit, which constructs and describes a comprehensive network for 7,715 publicly traded U.S. firms from 2004 to 2018, using data on over 9 million people with 2 billion connections from the professional social network LinkedIn. The key finding is that while employees do not necessarily make connections for the company’s benefit, the centrality of that company in the employee network positively predicts company value. Thanks to Nicolas BEHBAHANI for highlighting.
FIG 24: Firm-level Network Centrality and Economic Performance for U.S. Public Firms in 2018 (Source: Li, Nagle, and Zhou, 2023)
FROM MY DESK
February saw the final two episodes of Series 36 of the Digital HR Leaders podcast, sponsored by ScreenCloud as well as the first episode of Series 37 sponsored by Culture Amp. Thank you respectively to Luke Farrugia of ScreenCloud and Ellisa Packer and Jodie Evans of Culture Amp.
ERIC SIEGEL - How to Overcome AI Adoption Challenges in HR – Eric Siegel, the author of The AI Playbook: Mastering the Rare Art of Machine Learning Deployment, explains how to successfully deploy machine learning in organisations while remaining focused on outcomes, ethics, and improving decision making.
BERNARD MARR - Achieving AI & Human Synergy in Data-Driven HR – Bernard Marr, who always has his finger on the pulse when it comes to new technologies, shares insights from his book, Data-Driven HR: How to Use AI, Analytics and Data to Drive Performance, and how AI is already impacting HR, and how it will increasingly do so in the future.
REBECCA THIELEN - Microsoft's Key to Strategic Workforce Planning Success – Rebecca Thielen shares insights from the workforce planning journey at Microsoft, including the role of analytics, close partnership with finance, and the clear focus on the problem statement.
ANGELA LE MATHON, IAN COOK, AND DAVID GREEN - The Strategic Agenda for People Analytics in 2024 – I also hosted a webinar with Angela LE MATHON and Ian Cook, which was organised by Visier Inc. and People Analytics World, to discuss the agenda for people analytics in 2024. Topics discussed included the role of middle management in strategic decision-making, the impact of AI on people analytics, and the practical challenges and strategies for implementing AI and analytics within HR frameworks.
THANK YOU
Finally, this month I’d like to thank:
Matt Manners and the team at Inspiring Workplaces for once again including me on their Top 101 Global Employee Engagement & Experience Influencers 2024, sponsored by Huler.
Jennifer McClurefor including me in her list of recommendations for HR professionals looking to build a Personal Development Library.
Amit Mohindrafor including Excellence in People Analytics as one of the course materials for his people analytics course at Stanford University
Malgorzata (GOSIA) LANGLOIS for posting about the Microsoft case study contributed by Dawn Klinghoffer in Excellence in People Analytics.
Stephen Hickey for including me in his list of go-to resources on people analytics.
Dr. Divya Sainath for posting about our conversation at the recent Indeed Future Talent event in Bangalore.
Thomas Kohler for including the January edition of Data Driven HR Monthly in his list of HR Resources.
Teamflect for including the Digital Hr Leaders podcast at number six in its list of the top 20 HR podcasts.
Ekta Vyas Ph.D for posting about my article, A History of People Analytics in Five Ages.
Andrew Lafontaine for creating a post with highlights from the episode of the Digital HR Leaders podcast on How to Overcome AI Adoption Challenges in HR with Eric Siegel.
Wendy Van Ierschot for including me in her post about her book, Scale Ups and Downs.
DOWNLOAD THE LATEST INSIGHT222 PEOPLE ANALYTICS TRENDS RESEARCH
We’ve recently released our fourth annual People Analytics Trends report at Insight222: Investing to Deliver Value: A new Model for People Analytics, which is now available to download via the link – or by clicking on the image below.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
David Green ?? is a globally respected author, speaker, conference chair, and executive consultant on people analytics, data-driven HR and the future of work. As Managing Partner and Executive Director at Insight222, he has overall responsibility for the delivery of the Insight222 People Analytics Program, which supports the advancement of people analytics in over 90 global organisations. Prior to co-founding Insight222, David accumulated over 20 years experience in the human resources and people analytics fields, including as Global Director of People Analytics Solutions at IBM. As such, David has extensive experience in helping organisations increase value, impact and focus from the wise and ethical use of people analytics. David also hosts the Digital HR Leaders Podcast and is an instructor for Insight222's myHRfuture Academy. His book, co-authored with Jonathan Ferrar, Excellence in People Analytics: How to use Workforce Data to Create Business Value was published in the summer of 2021.
SEE ME AT THESE EVENTS
I'll be speaking about people analytics, the future of work, and data driven HR at a number of upcoming events in 2024:
March 4-6 - Gloat Live! (New York)
March 14-15 - Wharton People Analytics Conference (Philadelphia)
April 24-25 - People Analytics World (London)
May 7-9 - UNLEASH America (Las Vegas)
September 24-26 - Insight222 Global Executive Retreat (Colorado, US) - exclusively for member organisations of the Insight222 People Analytics Program
October 16-17 - UNLEASH World (Paris)
More events will be added as they are confirmed.
Future of Work
2024年03月03日
Future of Work
How Generative AI Adds Value to the Future of Work
这篇Upwork的文章深入探讨了生成式人工智能（AI）在重新塑造工作价值方面的变革力量，强调了自动化和创新不仅改变了工作岗位，还在各个行业提高了生产力和创造力。文章着重讨论了对劳动力市场的细微影响，强调了技能发展和道德考虑的重要性，并对人工智能与人类合作的未来提供了前瞻性的视角。
Authors: Dr. Ted Liu, Carina Deng, Dr. Kelly Monahan
Generative AI’s impact on work: lessons from previous technology advancements
In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the initial impact of generative AI (artificial intelligence) on the Upwork marketplace for independent talent. Evidence from previous technological innovations suggests that AI will have a dual impact: (1) the displacement effect, where job or task loss is initially more noticeable as technologies automate tasks, and (2) the reinstatement effect, where new jobs and tasks increase earnings over time as a result of the new technology. Take for example the entry of robotics within the manufacturing industry. When robotic arms were installed along assembly lines, they displaced some of the tasks that humans used to do. This was pronounced in tasks that were routine and easy to automate. However, new tasks were then needed with the introduction of robotics, such as programming the robots, analyzing data, building predictive models, and maintaining the physical robots. The effects of new technologies often counterbalance each other over time, giving way to many new jobs and tasks that weren’t possible or needed before. The manufacturing industry is now projected to have more jobs available as technologies continue to advance, including Internet of Things (IoT), augmented reality, and AI, which transform the way work is completed. The issue now at hand is ensuring enough skilled workers are able to work alongside these new technologies.
While this dynamic of displacement and reinstatement generally takes years to materialize, as noted above in the manufacturing example, the effects of generative AI may be taking place already on Upwork. For the platform as a whole, we observe that generative AI has increased the total number of job posts and the average spend per new contract created. In terms of work categories, generative AI has reduced demand in writing and translation, particularly in low-value work, while enhancing earnings in high-value work across all groups. In particular, work that relies on this new technology like Data Science and Analytics are reaping the benefits. The report highlights the importance of task complexity and the skill-biased nature of AI's impact. Skills-biased technology change is to be expected as the introduction of new technologies generally favors highly skilled workers. We observe this on our platform as high-skill freelancers in high-value work are benefiting more, while those in low-value work face challenges, underscoring the need for skilling and educational programs to empower freelancers to adapt and transition in this evolving work landscape.
Understanding the lifecycle of work on Upwork and the impact of gen AI
Generative AI has a growing presence in how people do their work, especially since the public release of ChatGPT in 2022. While there’s been extensive discussion about the challenges and opportunities of generative AI, there is limited evidence of such impact based on transaction data in the broader labor market. In this study, we use Upwork’s platform data to estimate the short-term effects of generative AI on freelance outcomes specifically. The advantage of the Upwork platform is that it is in itself a complete marketplace for independent talent, as we observe the full life cycle of work: job posts, matching, work execution, performance reviews, and payment. Few other instances exist where a closed-system work market can be studied and observed. Thus, the results of this study offer insights into not only the online freelance market, but also the broader labor market.
How technological progress disrupts the labor market is not a new topic. Acemoglu and Restrepo (2019) argue that earning gain arises from new tasks created by technological progress, which they term the “reinstatement effect,” even if the automation of certain tasks may have a displacement effect in the labor market initially. What this means is that there may be a dynamic effect going on: the displacement effect (e.g., work loss) may be more noticeable in the beginning of a new technology entry, but as new jobs and tasks are being created, the reinstatement effect (e.g., rates increase, new work) will begin to prevail. In the broader labor market, such dynamics will likely take years to materialize. But in a liquid and active independent work marketplace like Upwork, it’s possible that we’re already observing this transition happening.
Existing studies such as this provides a useful conceptual framework to think about the potential impact of generative AI. It’s likely that in the short term, the replacement of generative AI will continue to be more visible, not just at Upwork, but also in the broader labor market. Over time and across work categories, however, generative AI will likely spur new tasks and jobs, leading to the reinstatement effect becoming stronger and increasing rates for those occupations with new tasks and a higher degree of task complexity. We’ve already seen evidence of new demand as a result of gen AI on our Upwork platform, with brand new skill categories like AI content creator and prompt engineer emerging in late 2022 and early 2023. We test this hypothesis of both work displacement and reinstatement, and provide insights into how generative AI affects work outcomes.
Impact of generative AI on work
To understand the short-term impact of generative AI on the Upwork freelance market, we capitalize on a natural experiment arising from the public release of ChatGPT in November 2022. Because this release was largely an unanticipated event to the general public, we’re able to estimate the causal impact of generative AI. The essential idea behind this natural experiment is that we want to compare the work groups affected by AI with the counterfactual in which they are not. To implement this, we use a statistical and machine-learning method called synthetic control. Synthetic control allows us to see the impact that an intervention, in this case, the introduction of gen AI, has on a group over time by comparing it to a group with similar characteristics not exposed to the intervention. The advantage of this approach is that it allows us to construct reasonably credible comparison groups and observe the effect over time.
The units of analysis we use are work groups on the Upwork platform; we analyze variables such as contract number and freelancer earnings. Instead of narrowly focusing on a single category like writing, we extend the analysis to all the major work groups on Upwork. Moreover, we conduct additional analysis of the more granular clusters within each major group. The synthetic control method allows for flexibility in constructing counterfactuals at different levels of granularity. The advantage of our comprehensive approach is that we offer a balanced view of the impact of generative AI across the freelance market.
Generative AI’s short-term impact on job posts and freelancer earnings
Looking at the platform as a whole, we observe that generative AI has increased the total number of job posts by 2.4%, indicating the overall increased demand from clients. Moreover, as shown in Figure 1, for every new job contract, there is an increase of 1.3% in terms of freelancer earnings per contract, suggesting a higher value of contracts.
Figure 1 Effect of Generative AI on Freelancer Earning per Contract
The Upwork platform has three broad sectors: 1. Technological and digital solutions (tech solutions); 2. Creative & outreach; 3. Business operations and consulting. We have observed both positive and negative effects within each of the sectors, but two patterns are worth noting:
The reinstatement effect of generative AI seems to be driving growth in freelance earnings in sectors related to tech solutions and business operations. In contrast, within the creative sector, while sales and marketing earnings have grown because of AI, categories such as writing and translation seem disproportionately affected more by the replacement effect. This is to be expected due to the nature of tasks within these categories of work, where large language models are now able to efficiently process and generate text at scale.
Generative AI has propelled growth in high-value work across the sectors and may have depressed growth in low-value work. This supports a skills-biased technology change argument, which we’ve observed throughout modern work history.
More specifically and within tech solutions, data science & analytics is a clear winner, with over 8% of growth in freelance earnings attributed to generative AI. This makes sense as the reinstatement effect is at work; new work and tasks such as prompt engineering have been created and popularized because of generative AI. Simultaneously, while tools such as ChatGPT automate certain scripting tasks (therefore leading to a replacement effect), it mainly results in productivity enhancements for freelancers and potentially leads to them charging higher rates and enjoying higher overall earnings per task.
In terms of contracts related to business operations, we observe that accounting, administrative support, and legal services all experience gains in freelance earnings due to generative AI, ranging from 6% to 7%. In this sector, customer service is the only group that has experienced reduced earnings (-4%). The reduced earnings result for customer service contracts is an example of the aggregate earnings outcomes of AI, related to the study by Brynjolfsson et al (2023), who find that generative AI helps reduce case resolution time at service centers.
A potential outcome of this cut in resolution time is that service centers will need fewer workers, as more tasks can be completed by a person working alongside AI. At the same time, the reinstatement effect has not materialized yet because there are no new tasks being demanded in such settings. This may be an instance where work transformation has not yet been fully realized, with AI enabling faster work rather than reinventing a way of working that leads to new types of tasks. A contrasting case is the transformation that happened with bank tellers when ATMs were introduced. While the introduction of these new technologies resulted in predictions of obsolete roles in banks, something different happened over time. Banks were able to increase efficiency as a result of ATMs and were able to scale and open more branches than before, thereby creating more jobs. In addition, the transactional role of a bank teller became focused on greater interpersonal skills and customer relationship tasks.
When taken together, the overall gains in such business operations work on Upwork are an encouraging sign. These positions tend to require relatively intensive interpersonal communication, and it seems the short-term effects of generative AI have helped increase the value of these contracts, similar to what we saw in the banking industry when ATMs were introduced.
As of now, the replacement effect of AI seems more noticeable in creative and outreach work. The exception is sales and marketing contracts, which have experienced a 6.5% increase in freelance earnings. There is no significant impact yet observed on design. For writing and translation, however, generative AI seems to have reduced earnings by 8% and 10% respectively. However, as we will discover, task complexity has a moderating effect on this.
High-value work benefit from generative AI, upskilling needed for low-value work
Having discussed the overall impact of generative AI across categories, we now decompose the impact by values. The reason we’re looking at the dimension of work value is that there may be a positive correlation between contract value and skill complexity. Moreover, skill complexity may also be positively correlated with skill levels. Essentially, by evaluating the impact of AI by different contract values, we can get at the question of AI's impact by skill levels. This objective is further underscored by a discrepancy that sometimes exists in the broader labor markets – a skills gap between demand and supply. It simply takes time for upskilling to take place, so it’s typical for demand to exceed supply until a more balanced skilled labor market takes place. It is worth noting, however, freelancers on the Upwork platform seem more likely than non-freelancers to acquire new skills such as generative AI.
For simplicity, let’s assume that the value of contracts is a good proxy for the level of skill required to complete them. We’d then assume that high-skill freelancers typically do high-value work, and low-skill freelancers do low-value work. In other words, our goal is also to understand whether the impact of generative AI is skills-biased and follows a similar pattern from what we’ve seen in the past with new technology disruptions. Note that we’re focusing on the top and bottom tails of the distribution of contract values, because such groups (rather than median or mean) might be most susceptible to displacement and/or reinstatement effects, therefore of primary concern. We define high-value (HV) work as those with $1,000 or more earnings per contract. For the remaining contracts, we focus on a subset of work as low-value (LV) work ($251-500 earnings).
Figure 2 shows the impact of AI by work value, across groups on Upwork. As we discussed before, writing and translation work has experienced some reduction in earnings overall. However, if we look further into the effect of contract value, we see that the reduction is largely coming from the reduced earnings from low-value work. At the same time, for these two types, generative AI has induced substantial growth in high-value earnings – the effect for translation is as high as 7%. We believe the positive effect on translation high-value earning is driven by more posts and contracts created. In the tech solutions sector, the growth in HV earnings in data science and web development is also particularly noticeable, ranging from 6% to 9%. Within the business solutions sector, administrative support is the clear winner.
There are two takeaways from this analysis by work value. First, while we’re looking at a sample of all the contracts on the platform, it’s possible that the decline of LV work is more than made up for by the growth of HV work in the majority of the groups. In other words, except for select work groups, the equilibrium results for the Upwork freelance market overall seem to be net positive gains from generative AI. Second, if we assume that freelancers with high skills (or a high degree of skill complexity) tend to complete such HV work (and low-skill freelancers do LV work), we observe that the impact of generative AI may be biased against low-skill freelancers. This is an important result: In the current discussion of whether generative AI is skill-based, there exists limited evidence based on realized gains and actual work market transactions. We are one of the first to provide market-transaction-based evidence to illustrate this potentially skill-biased impact. Finally, additional internal Upwork analysis finds that independent talent engaged in AI-related work earn 40% more on the Upwork marketplace than their counterparts engaged in non-AI-related work. This suggests there may be additional overlap between high-skill work and AI-related work, which can further reinforce the earning potential of freelancers in this group.
Figure 2
Case study: 3D content work
To illustrate the impact of generative AI in more depth, we have conducted a case study of Engineering & Architecture work within the tech solutions sector. The reason is that we want to illustrate the potentially overlooked aspects of AI impact, compared with the examples of data science and writing contracts. This progress in generative AI has the potential to reshape work in traditional areas like design in manufacturing and architecture, which rely heavily on computer-aided design (CAD) objects, and newer sectors such as gaming and virtual reality, exemplified by NVIDIA's Omniverse.
Based on activities on the Upwork platform, we see that there is consistent growth of job posts and client spending in this category, with up to 12% of gross service value growth year over year in 2023 Q3, and over 11% in job posts during the same period. Moreover, applying the synthetic control method, we show a causal relationship between gen AI advancements and the growth in job posts and earnings per contract. More specifically, there is a significant increase in overall earnings because of AI, an average 11.5% increase. Additionally, as shown by Figure 3, the positive effect also applies to earning per contract. This indicates a positive impact on freelancer productivity and quality of work, due to the fact that we’re measuring the income for every unit of work produced. This suggests that gen AI is not just a facilitator of efficiency but also enhances the quality of output.
Figure 3 Effect of Generative AI on Freelancer Earning per Contract in EngineeringIn a traditional workflow to create 3D objects without generative AI, freelancers would spend extensive time and effort to design the topology, geometry, and textures of the objects. But with generative AI, they can do so through text prompts to train models and generate 3D content. For example, this blog by NVIDIA’s Omniverse team showcases how ChatGPT can interface with traditional 3D creation tools.
Thus, the positive trajectory of generative AI in 3D content generation we see is driven by several factors. AI significantly reduces job execution time, allowing for higher productivity. It facilitates the replication and scaling of 3D objects, leading to economies of scale. Moreover, freelancers can now concentrate more on the creative aspects of 3D content, as AI automates time-consuming and tedious tasks.
This shift has not led to a decrease in rates due to the replacement effect. In fact, this shift of workflow may create new tasks and work. We will likely see a new type of occupation in which technology and humanities disciplines converge. For instance, a freelancer trained in art history now has the tools to recreate a 3D rendering of Japan in the Edo period, without the need to conduct heavy coding. In other words, the reinstatement effect of AI will elevate the overall quality and value proposition of the work, and ultimately enable higher earning gains. This paradigm shift underscores generative AI's role in not just transforming work processes but also in creating new economic dynamics within the 3D content market. Fortunately, it seems many freelancers on Upwork are ready to reap the benefits: 3D-related skills, such as 3D modeling, rendering, and design, are listed among the top five skills of freelancer profiles as well as in job posts.
A dynamic interplay: task complexity, skills, and gen AI
Focusing on the Upwork marketplace for independent talent, we study the impact of generative AI by using the public release of ChatGPT as a natural experiment. The results suggest a dynamic interplay of replacement and reinstatement effects; we argue that this dynamic is influenced by task complexity, suggesting a skill-biased impact of gen AI. Analysis across Upwork's work sectors shows varied effects: growth in freelance earnings in tech solutions and business operations, but a mixed impact in the creative sector. Specifically, high-value work in data science and business operations see significant earnings growth, while creative contracts like writing and translation experience a decrease in earnings, particularly in lower-value tasks. Using the case study of 3D content creation, we show that generative AI can significantly enhance productivity and quality of work, leading to economic gains and a shift toward higher-value tasks, despite initial concerns of displacement.
Acemoglu and Restrepo (2019) argue that the slowdown of earning growth in the United States the past three decades can partly be explained by new technologies’ replacement effect overpowering the reinstatement effect. But with generative AI, we’re at a point of completely redefining what human tasks mean, and there may be ample opportunities to create new tasks and work. It's evident that while high-value types of work are being created, freelancers engaged in low-value tasks may face negative impact, possibly due to a lack of skills needed to capitalize on AI benefits. This situation underscores the necessity of supporting freelancers not only in elevating their marketability within their current domains but also in transitioning to other work categories.
To ensure as many people as possible benefit, there’s an imperative need to provide educational resources for them to gain the technical skills, and more importantly skills of adaptability to reinvent their work. This helps minimize the chance of missed opportunities by limiting skills mismatch between talent and new demands created by new technologies. Upwork has played a significant role here by linking freelancers to resources such as Upwork Academy’s AI Education Library and Education Marketplace, thereby equipping them with the necessary tools and knowledge to adapt and thrive in an AI-present job market. This approach can help bridge the gap between low- and high-value work opportunities, ensuring a more equitable distribution of the advantages brought about by generative AI.
Methodology
To estimate the causal impact of generative AI, we take a synthetic control approach in the spirit of Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller (2010). The synthetic control method allows us to construct a weighted combination of comparison units from available data to create a counterfactual scenario, simulating what would have happened in the absence of the intervention. We use this quasi-experimental method due to the infeasibility of conducting a controlled large-scale experiment. Additionally, we use Lasso regularization to credibly construct the donor pool that serves the basis of the counterfactuals and minimize the chance of overfitting the data.
Moreover, we supplement the analysis by scoring whether a sub-occupation is impacted or unaffected by generative AI. The scoring utilizes specific criteria: 1. Whether a certain share of job posts are tagged as AI contracts by the Upwork platform; 2. AI occupational exposure score, based on a study by Felten, Raj, and Seamans (2023), to tag these sub-occupations. We also use data smoothing techniques through three-month moving averages. We analyzed data collected on our platform from 2021 through Q3 2023. We specifically look at freelancer data across all 12 work categories on the platform for high-value contracts, defined as those with a contract of at least $1,000, and low-value contracts, consisting of those between $251 and under $500.
The main advantage of our approach is that it is a robust yet flexible way to identify the causal effects on not only the Upwork freelance market but also specific work categories. Additionally, we control for macroeconomic or aggregate shocks such as U.S. monetary policy in the pre-treatment period. However, we acknowledge the potential biases in identifying which sub-occupations are influenced by generative AI and the effects of external factors in the post-treatment period.
About the Upwork Research Institute
The Upwork Research Institute is committed to studying the fundamental shifts in the workforce and providing business leaders with the tools and insights they need to navigate the here and now while preparing their organization for the future. Using our proprietary platform data, global survey research, partnerships, and academic collaborations, we produce evidence-based insights to create the blueprint for the new way of work.
About Ted Liu
Dr. Ted Liu is Research Manager at Upwork, where he focuses on how work and skills evolve in relation to technological progress such as artificial intelligence. He received his PhD in economics from the University of California, Santa Cruz.
About Carina Deng
Carian Deng is the Lead Analyst in Strategic Analytics at Upwork, where she specializes in uncovering data insights through advanced statistical methodologies. She holds a Master's degree in Data Science from George Washington University.
About Kelly Monahan
Dr. Kelly Monahan is Managing Director of the Upwork Research Institute, leading our future of work research program. Her research has been recognized and published in both applied and academic journals, including MIT Sloan Management Review and the Journal of Strategic Management.
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