今天是选举日：HR机构领导者认为未来经济形势会更加光明
今天是选举日，有人正在权衡此次投票对美国经济可能带来的影响。
据《巴伦周刊》报道，Adecco集团的首席执行官Denis Machuel向法新社表示，无论谁获胜，选举结束后美国的招聘活动预计都会恢复。
“企业不喜欢不确定性：它们希望了解未来会发生什么。而这种不确定性并未真正有利于美国市场，”据《巴伦周刊》报道，“一旦选举结束，无论谁赢得选举，我们的经济将会比之前获得更多的推动力。”
10月22日的Robert Half财报电话会议也提到了选举及其不确定性。
“在通货膨胀较低和广泛预期进一步降息的背景下，NFIB的小企业乐观指数在过去六个月中有五个月呈上升趋势，”该公司总裁兼首席执行官M. Keith Waddell在电话会议中说道。“尽管如此，NFIB的不确定性指数却达到历史新高，部分原因是即将到来的美国选举。许多经济学家正在上调他们的预测，随着选举的结束，总体宏观环境应该会有所改善。”
供应管理协会（ISM）在其服务业ISM报告中也提到了选举，并指出“与上月相比，关于政治不确定性的担忧再次增加。”
总体而言，ISM指出其服务业PMI指数上升至56%，这是自2022年7月以来的最高水平，显示出美国服务业的加速扩张。然而，该报告基于全美采购和供应管理人员的数据，许多人提到选举对行业的影响。
“一些客户在我们的技术业务线和能源相关项目中着眼于未来——选举后将启动下一阶段项目，”一位采购和供应管理人员表示。
另一位ISM的受访者指出，由于资金在选举后才会释放，新订单略有下降。
而不仅是总统选举在影响着行业。几个州也在进行最低工资标准的投票，马萨诸塞州的选民则在投票是否为Uber等公司独立司机提供加入工会的途径，路透社报道。
在加州，选民将决定32号州提案是否通过，这项提案将把该州的最低工资标准在2026年提高到每小时18美元。该州已经要求快餐店员工的最低工资为每小时20美元。
原文作者：Craig Johnson
Today is Election Day, and some are weighing in on the possible impact of today’s vote on the US economy.
Adecco Group CEO Denis Machuel told AFP that regardless of who wins, hiring in the US should recover post-election, according to a report in Barron’s.
“Businesses don’t like uncertainty: They like to know what’s going to happen. And that level of uncertainty hasn’t really helped the US market,” according to the report in Barron’s. “Once this is over, no matter who wins, we’re going to have more tailwinds than we had so far.”
The election and uncertainty were also mentioned in Robert Half’s earnings call on Oct. 22.
“With lower inflation and widespread expectations of further rate cuts, the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index has been up five of the last six months,” President and CEO M. Keith Waddell said in the call. “That said, the NFIB’s Uncertainty Index is at all-time highs, in part due to the upcoming US elections. Many economists are making upward revisions to their forecasts, and as we get past the elections, the overall macro environment should begin to improve.”
The Institute for Supply Management also mentioned the election in its Services ISM report, noting that “concerns over political uncertainty were again more prevalent than the previous month.”
Overall, the ISM noted its Services PMI rose to a reading of 56% — the highest since July 2022 — indicating faster expansion in the US services sector. However, the report is based on data from purchasing and supply executives across the US, and several comments were made on the election.
“Seeing emerging projects in our technology business line as well as in energy-related projects, where many customers are looking forward — post-election — to release their next phases,” one purchasing and supply executive said.
Another ISM comment noted that new orders were slightly lower because of funds being held back until after the election.
And it’s not just the presidential election influencing the industry. Several states are voting on minimum wage rates, and Massachusetts voters are weighing in on whether to provide a path for independent contractor drivers at firms such as Uber to join unions, Reuters reported.
In California, voters are deciding on state Proposition 32, which would raise the state’s minimum wage to $18 per hour by 2026. The state already requires fast food workers to be paid $20 per hour.
招聘
2024年11月05日
招聘
2024美国大选对招聘行业的深远影响，HR应如何应对？ How the US elections could affect recruiting随着2024年美国大选的临近，选举结果可能对招聘趋势产生重大影响。根据Appcast首席经济学家Andrew Flowers的分析，选民最关心的三大问题——经济（包括就业和股票市场）、移民和通胀（包括生活成本）——都与招聘紧密相关。移民政策影响招聘人员的可用人才库，而通胀和生活成本则影响薪酬和工资增长预期。
Flowers在2024年10月15日的网络研讨会上探讨了美国大选可能对2025年招聘战略产生的影响。他列举了四种可能的选举结果，并对每种情景的招聘影响进行分析。例如，Harris获胜的情况下，可能对劳动力需求、供应和工资影响较小，而共和党全面执政则可能导致劳动力供应减少，工资增长。
选举的结果对招聘市场将产生不同的影响，从关税、税收政策、移民政策到工资增长等多方面，招聘人员必须为多种可能性做好准备。Flowers指出，这次选举结果悬而未决，总统选举结果接近50-50，众议院和参议院的控制权也未定。
“总统选举结果极其接近，”Flowers强调道。“任何结果都有可能。”此外，无论哪个党派掌握众议院和参议院，都可能影响未来的招聘政策，招聘人员应关注候选人的关税政策、移民执法和税法变化。
他提出的四种情景包括：1. Harris胜选，国会分裂或由共和党掌控，可能对劳动力市场影响中立；2. 共和党胜选并控制国会，可能导致移民政策收紧，工资增长；3. Trump胜选并国会分裂，可能对工资和移民政策影响较小；4. 民主党全面执政可能有利于劳动力供应和工资增长。
Flowers总结道，他的分析旨在提供非党派的观点，招聘人员应密切关注选举结果对未来招聘战略的影响。
人们在选择候选人时认为最重要的三个问题——经济（包括就业和股市）、移民和通货膨胀（包括生活成本）——都与招聘密切相关。
例如，移民影响了人才库以及招聘人员能够招聘的对象，程序化招聘广告提供商Appcast的首席经济学家Andrew Flowers在一次网络广播中表示。另一个方面，通货膨胀和生活成本会影响薪酬和预期的工资增长。
Flowers的网络广播《美国大选如何影响2025年招聘策略》于10月15日举行，旨在提供对选举影响的非党派观点。
“无论哪位候选人当选，我们都处于一个高度通胀的环境，”他说，并补充道，选民似乎并不愿意削减支出。
Flowers强调，由于这次总统选举竞争非常激烈，招聘人员面临着严峻的形势。
“总统职位基本上是五五开，”他说。“选情非常接近……可能会朝任意一方倾斜。”
Flowers还指出，美国众议院和参议院的控制权也悬而未决。尽管预测人士认为参议院可能会从民主党翻转到共和党，但众议院的控制权将在11月选举中紧张角逐。
影响招聘的因素还包括候选人是否引入更多关税、他们对驱逐非法移民的政策以及2017年《减税和就业法》下的个人税率，这些税率将在2025年底到期。
Flowers提出了四种情景：
情景1：卡马拉·哈里斯获胜，而国会则可能分裂或由共和党控制两院。这个情景的概率为45%，Flowers表示，这对劳动力需求、供给和工资的影响将是中性的。关税和税收政策将保持现状，边境执法将仅有适度收紧。
情景2：共和党占据总统和国会两院的主导地位。这个情景的概率为30%。Flowers表示，这对劳动力需求的影响可能是中性的，潜在的关税可能会减缓经济增长，而可能的税收减免则可能促进增长。然而，可能的大规模驱逐移民的政策可能对劳动力供给产生负面影响。不过，由于通胀、财政、贸易和移民政策的影响，工资可能会上涨。
情景3：唐纳德·特朗普赢得总统大选，国会则可能分裂或由民主党控制两院。Flowers认为这种情况的可能性为20%。在这种情况下，潜在的关税可能会减缓经济增长，税收状况可能维持现状。劳动力供给的影响将是中性的，边境执法也将仅有适度收紧。通胀的财政和贸易政策可能对工资产生正面影响，导致工资上涨。
情景4：民主党占据总统和国会两院的主导地位。这个情景的概率仅为5%，Flowers表示，这对劳动力需求的影响将是中性的。然而，它可能对劳动力供给产生正面影响，移民政策将保持强劲，儿童保育政策也将得到实施。同时，随着劳动力权力的上升，结合通胀的财政政策，工资可能会上涨。
距离11月5日的选举还有三周，Flowers强调，他的分析旨在以非党派的角度审视事实，而不是支持某个特定的候选人或政党。
原文来自 https://www.staffingindustry.com/news/global-daily-news/how-the-us-elections-could-affect-recruiting
招聘
2024年10月16日
招聘
【免费加入】HR采购指南-北美华人人力资源服务机构图谱开放登记中
New Opportunity: North American Chinese HR Service Companies Landscape Now Open for Registration, Setting a New Standard for Chinese HR Services in North America
我们诚挚邀请您加入北美地区最全面的华人人力资源服务机构图谱（North American Chinese HR Service Companies Landscape）。此图谱旨在助力HR服务机构树立强大品牌形象，帮助企业更高效地寻找专业HR服务。该图谱由北美华人人力资源协会（NACSHR）联合权威媒体全力打造。这将成为众多企业在北美地区采购HR服务的重要指南。
覆盖范围广泛
北美华人人力资源服务机构图谱将汇聚来自加拿大、美国、墨西哥等地的优秀华人人力资源服务机构，涵盖HR服务的各个方面，包括但不限于：招聘服务（猎头,RPO,校招等）、HR咨询培训、移民签证，劳动关系、薪酬福利、人力资源外包、薪酬外包、EOR、灵活用工等等。
参与机构条件
在北美地区设有实体和工作人员的HR服务机构均可参与。无论是华人创办的机构，还是客户对象包含华人公司，亦或是希望开拓企业市场的公司，皆欢迎加入。
加入NACSHR服务图谱的理由
加入NACSHR服务图谱将为您提供诸多好处：
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客户获取：成为企业寻找HR服务的首选指南，带来潜在客户。
专业背书：与NACSHR和权威媒体合作，提升机构信誉和美誉。
市场拓展：扩大在北美地区的市场影响力。
如何加入
扫码登记：扫描提供的二维码登记相关信息。
点击链接：https://www.nacshr.org/map/Register/join
表现形式与收益
NACSHR服务图谱将以多种形式展示，包括图谱、海报、网页、短视频等，这些形式将确保您的品牌获得最大程度的曝光（部分形式仅限于VIP服务）。
北美华人人力资源服务机构图谱下载：https://www.nacshr.org/map/Index/download/
如何加入北美华人人力资源服务机构图谱
为了方便大家参与北美华人人力资源服务机构图谱，我们提供两种服务选择：
免费服务：适合所有希望加入的机构，只需要填写链接提交相关资料即可。
VIP服务：优惠：2000美元/年，3600美元/2年 包含诸多额外权益，是提升品牌的最佳选择。VIP服务将为您提供更全面的推广和支持，帮助您在竞争中脱颖而出。（2024年12月31日后，3000美元/年）
NACSHR图谱VIP服务权益：
· NACSHR图谱版本LOGO+简称展示，优先前排展示（其他仅为文字简称）
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覆盖人群
NACSHR服务图谱将覆盖北美地区的NACSHR用户和会员。我们将通过微信群、小红书、网站、LinkedIn等社交媒体渠道进行广泛传播，确保您的品牌信息触达更多潜在客户。
加入北美华人人力资源服务机构图谱，是提升品牌和拓展市场的绝佳机会。立即行动，抓住这次难得的机遇，成为众多企业信赖的HR服务提供者！
期待您的参与！
北美华人人力资源协会
North American Chinese Society of Human Resource, (known as NACSHR)
关于北美华人人力资源服务图谱
北美华人人力资源服务图谱（NACSHR Landscape）汇聚来自加拿大、美国、墨西哥等北美地区的顶尖华人人力资源服务机构，全面覆盖企业所需的各类HR服务。作为北美企业人力资源服务采购的权威指南，NACSHR图谱不仅是企业挑选优质服务伙伴的必备工具，更是服务机构展示品牌实力、拓展北美市场的绝佳平台。
NACSHR图谱将通过全方位、多渠道的广泛传播，精准触达北美地区的华人管理精英，成为企业开拓北美市场的首选资源。无论是本土扩张还是海外发展，NACSHR图谱都将助您抢占先机，赢得市场。加入NACSHR图谱，您的品牌将与北美最优秀的HR服务商齐名，共同引领行业未来！
常见问题
·哪些机构可以参与？
在北美地区有实体和工作人员的HR服务机构均可，华人创办或客户对象包含华人公司，希望开拓中企市场等
·为什么要加入NACSHR服务图谱？
太多理由！无论从品牌推广到获取客户，NACSHR服务图谱都是你不可错过的重要渠道
·如何加入？
请扫码登记，或者点击这里登记相关信息，并选择相关权益，所有服务为1年有效期
·图谱有哪些表现形式，收益有哪些？
多个形式，图谱、海报、网页、手册等诸多形式。
·是否需要支付费用？
为更广泛的参与，提供免费和VIP服务2种供选择。
VIP服务收费为2000美元（优惠价 原价3000美元/年），包含诸多权益，是你最佳的选择，当然你可以先从免费开始。
从收集整理到发布推广，都是需要相当成本。
·NACSHR服务图谱会覆盖哪些人群？
首先会覆盖北美地区NACSHR用户和会员，我们会通过诸多微信群、小红书、网站、LinkedIn等社交媒体等渠道发布和传播。
诸多推广海报，供参考
招聘
2024年07月14日
招聘
Will Chatbots Take Over HR Tech? Paradox Sets The Pace.在快速发展的人力资源技术领域，Paradox.ai 已成为领跑者，其先进的对话式人工智能平台彻底改变了招聘流程。通过利用自然语言处理和人工智能，Paradox.ai 提供了一个全面的解决方案，涵盖了从最初的职位申请到入职的整个招聘过程。该平台不仅简化了筛选和面试安排等繁琐流程，还提升了应聘者的整体体验，显著改善了招聘时间和招聘质量指标。
Paradox.ai 由亚伦-马托斯（Aaron Matos）于 2016 年创立，目前为联合利华、CVS Health 和通用汽车等大客户提供服务，实现了 90% 以上的招聘流程自动化。
Paradox.ai 凭借其强大的集成能力和大幅缩短招聘时间、降低招聘成本的能力，在人力资源技术领域充分体现了对话式人工智能的变革力量。
Chatbots used to be tinker-toys. You type, try to get help, but usually result in “please call support.” Well all this has changed.
Thanks to advanced NLP (natural language processing) and AI (retrieval-augmented generation) chatbots are entire applications. They can answer complex questions, search databases, and invoke transactions on your behalf.
Pretty soon we’ll be able to ask our phones “please find me a flight to Los Angeles next Tuesday morning” and the system will check your location and calendar, look at flights, and book you a seat.
Where is this going in HR? Well the leader in this space is Paradox.ai, a company that pioneered the application of conversational AI in recruiting. And their system “defines the category.”
Let me explain.
Recruiting Is The Perfect Market For Conversational AI
Recruiting is a goldmine for automation. When you post a job, applicants want to ask many predictable things: “How much does it pay?” “What are the hours?” or “What uniform do I need” or “What are the benefits?”
The recruiter, a person devoted to filling positions, has to answer all these questions and more. They have to screen candidates, schedule interviews, check for qualifications, and look at credentials, experience, and more. It’s time-consuming, error-prone, and filled with wasted time. (That’s why talent acquisition teams have many “scheduler” and admins.)
The average “time to hire” is over 45 days and often the process goes on for months. And throughout the experience the job seeker is left wondering “when will they call back” or “what else do I need to know?”
(CEOs cite hiring as the third most time-wasting process in companies, following emails and meetings, estimated at “40% wasted time.”)
Paradox uses Conversational AI to solve this problem. And because this is a “narrow but deep” space, the system does many things we can learn from in all our AI efforts.
Paradox was founded by Aaron Matos in 2016. Aaron’s vision was to transform the candidate experience, revolutionizing the way candidates apply to jobs. Today Paradox has become a complete Conversational AI Recruitment Platform (chat to apply, scheduling, candidate support, ATS, assessments, onboarding, career site, and more), serving clients like Unilever, CVS Health, Pfizer, L’Oreal, Nestle, McDonald’s FedEx, Compass Group, Disney, and General Motors.
The platform automates tasks such as screening for requirements, interview scheduling, reminders, offers, and new hire onboarding. And because it’s so easy to use, it helps companies radically improves time-to-hire and quality of hire. Based on my conversations with clients, Paradox can automate more than 90% of the end-to-end hiring process, saving hiring managers hours every week and increasing candidate conversion by more than 10 times.
But this innovation did not happen overnight. As you know, going to a candidate website and looking for a job is a frustrating process. There are often hundreds of jobs listed, a complex scrolling website and very hard to even determine what job to apply for.
You might argue that the website paradigm for job applications was never really a good idea in the first place. People don’t want to browse for jobs: they want to apply for a job that’s best for them. So the first thing Paradox did was create an easy to use assistant (Olivia) so candidates could ask questions and schedule interviews. And this meant that Paradox had to build integrations with every ATS and personal email and calendar tools out there.
Then, as companies started to use Paradox for scheduling, the company added more. Today Olivia, the chatbot, can integrate with background check vendors, schedule interviews, deliver assessments (Paradox acquired a conversational assessment Traitify designed for this), and function as an ATS … all from a mobile phone. In many ways Paradox can be “the integration platform” for candidates and recruiters, stitching together the messy systems behind the scenes.
This turned into a massive opportunity. Just as the Google Assistant or Siri hopes to be our single contact with the internet, Paradox partners with systems of record like Workday, SAP, and Oracle to bring conversational AI to any company. The company’s revenues have grown 11 times in the last four years, and are now nearly doubling each year.
For customers Paradox has been amazing. As the candidate pipeline speeds up (by an order of magnitude), clients get higher quality candidates with dramatically reduced staff. (Staffing administrators can almost go away.)
Consider high-volume hiring companies. These businesses (McDonald’s, Compass Group, Neighborly, FedEx, Disney) hire service-related workers on a regular basis. Their revenue is dependent on having enough people. With Paradox they can set up a “continuous recruitment process,” one that even hires people the same day they apply.
Paradox has become essential to these companies growth, often paying for itself in less than a year (through reduced hiring staff, reduced spend on job ads, and reduced turnover.)
Today, as Paradox built out its ATS, customers can rely on the platform to integrate front end tool (job portals and candidate support) to back end tools scheduling, ATS, onboarding) most of which are legacy. One of our clients has 27 recruiting tools and they anticipate replacing more than half of them with a platform like Paradox.
What about higher level white collar roles? Paradox works here too. General Motors uses Paradox along with Workday (ATS), (branded Evie) to redesign the process.
Interview Scheduling: Evie automates scheduling of phone screens and interviews between recruiters, candidates, and internal teams. This has reduced the time taken for interview scheduling from an average of five days to 29 minutes.
Candidate Experience: Evie interacts with candidates from the moment they land on GM’s career site until the completion of their interview. Candidates appreciate the immediate communication from Evie after they apply or complete an interview, and enjoy the autonomy to select and change interview times.
Efficiency and Cost Savings: The automation of interview scheduling has led to a major reduction in the cost of external contractors for coordination.
Career Site Interaction: Evie sits on GM’s career site, answering questions from potential candidates about jobs, benefits, and company culture. This interaction enhances the candidate’s experience and provides them with immediate responses to their queries.
Where Is Paradox Going
The company is perfectly positioned to continue its growth as companies look for AI solutions to improve the productivity and effectiveness of recruiting. And demand is high: the 2024 PwC CEO survey found that recruiting was considered the #3 “most bureaucratic process” by CEOs (following email and meetings).
The impact on recruiters? All positive. Clients tell us they can redeploy hiring staff to help recruiters focus on the most important part of their job: talking with candidates.
But there’s a much bigger story. When a job candidate is handled efficiently and effectively the process becomes a brand-builder for the candidate, improving quality of hire. Ambitious job seekers will not put up with (or wait for) a messy, confusing hiring process. So not only is the process faster and more efficient, the quality of hire goes up.
Companies are desperately looking for AI solutions that work. As Paradox has proven, when you focus deeply on the problem, conversational AI can be transformational.
Listen to my conversation with Adam Godson (CEO) and you’ll hear the details. This is where the HR Tech market is going.
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