2024美国大选对招聘行业的深远影响，HR应如何应对？ How the US elections could affect recruiting随着2024年美国大选的临近，选举结果可能对招聘趋势产生重大影响。根据Appcast首席经济学家Andrew Flowers的分析，选民最关心的三大问题——经济（包括就业和股票市场）、移民和通胀（包括生活成本）——都与招聘紧密相关。移民政策影响招聘人员的可用人才库，而通胀和生活成本则影响薪酬和工资增长预期。
Flowers在2024年10月15日的网络研讨会上探讨了美国大选可能对2025年招聘战略产生的影响。他列举了四种可能的选举结果，并对每种情景的招聘影响进行分析。例如，Harris获胜的情况下，可能对劳动力需求、供应和工资影响较小，而共和党全面执政则可能导致劳动力供应减少，工资增长。
选举的结果对招聘市场将产生不同的影响，从关税、税收政策、移民政策到工资增长等多方面，招聘人员必须为多种可能性做好准备。Flowers指出，这次选举结果悬而未决，总统选举结果接近50-50，众议院和参议院的控制权也未定。
“总统选举结果极其接近，”Flowers强调道。“任何结果都有可能。”此外，无论哪个党派掌握众议院和参议院，都可能影响未来的招聘政策，招聘人员应关注候选人的关税政策、移民执法和税法变化。
他提出的四种情景包括：1. Harris胜选，国会分裂或由共和党掌控，可能对劳动力市场影响中立；2. 共和党胜选并控制国会，可能导致移民政策收紧，工资增长；3. Trump胜选并国会分裂，可能对工资和移民政策影响较小；4. 民主党全面执政可能有利于劳动力供应和工资增长。
Flowers总结道，他的分析旨在提供非党派的观点，招聘人员应密切关注选举结果对未来招聘战略的影响。
人们在选择候选人时认为最重要的三个问题——经济（包括就业和股市）、移民和通货膨胀（包括生活成本）——都与招聘密切相关。
例如，移民影响了人才库以及招聘人员能够招聘的对象，程序化招聘广告提供商Appcast的首席经济学家Andrew Flowers在一次网络广播中表示。另一个方面，通货膨胀和生活成本会影响薪酬和预期的工资增长。
Flowers的网络广播《美国大选如何影响2025年招聘策略》于10月15日举行，旨在提供对选举影响的非党派观点。
“无论哪位候选人当选，我们都处于一个高度通胀的环境，”他说，并补充道，选民似乎并不愿意削减支出。
Flowers强调，由于这次总统选举竞争非常激烈，招聘人员面临着严峻的形势。
“总统职位基本上是五五开，”他说。“选情非常接近……可能会朝任意一方倾斜。”
Flowers还指出，美国众议院和参议院的控制权也悬而未决。尽管预测人士认为参议院可能会从民主党翻转到共和党，但众议院的控制权将在11月选举中紧张角逐。
影响招聘的因素还包括候选人是否引入更多关税、他们对驱逐非法移民的政策以及2017年《减税和就业法》下的个人税率，这些税率将在2025年底到期。
Flowers提出了四种情景：
情景1：卡马拉·哈里斯获胜，而国会则可能分裂或由共和党控制两院。这个情景的概率为45%，Flowers表示，这对劳动力需求、供给和工资的影响将是中性的。关税和税收政策将保持现状，边境执法将仅有适度收紧。
情景2：共和党占据总统和国会两院的主导地位。这个情景的概率为30%。Flowers表示，这对劳动力需求的影响可能是中性的，潜在的关税可能会减缓经济增长，而可能的税收减免则可能促进增长。然而，可能的大规模驱逐移民的政策可能对劳动力供给产生负面影响。不过，由于通胀、财政、贸易和移民政策的影响，工资可能会上涨。
情景3：唐纳德·特朗普赢得总统大选，国会则可能分裂或由民主党控制两院。Flowers认为这种情况的可能性为20%。在这种情况下，潜在的关税可能会减缓经济增长，税收状况可能维持现状。劳动力供给的影响将是中性的，边境执法也将仅有适度收紧。通胀的财政和贸易政策可能对工资产生正面影响，导致工资上涨。
情景4：民主党占据总统和国会两院的主导地位。这个情景的概率仅为5%，Flowers表示，这对劳动力需求的影响将是中性的。然而，它可能对劳动力供给产生正面影响，移民政策将保持强劲，儿童保育政策也将得到实施。同时，随着劳动力权力的上升，结合通胀的财政政策，工资可能会上涨。
距离11月5日的选举还有三周，Flowers强调，他的分析旨在以非党派的角度审视事实，而不是支持某个特定的候选人或政党。
原文来自 https://www.staffingindustry.com/news/global-daily-news/how-the-us-elections-could-affect-recruiting
Inflation
2024年10月16日
Inflation
How to Strategically Plan a Budget for HR in 2024The article discusses strategies for planning an HR budget for 2024, emphasizing the need for advanced HR technology and digital tools to enhance employee experience. It highlights the importance of focusing on talent retention due to high attrition rates in Asia and adapting to changes in the workforce market. The article stresses compliance with labor law changes and the need for a data-driven approach to budgeting. It outlines key budget components, including recruitment, training, salaries, HR technology, and employee well-being, to ensure a comprehensive plan for organizational growth and success.
As companies brace themselves for 2024, many HR teams are busy preparing comprehensive budgets for the coming year. Fortunately, with a host of cutting-edge HR technology and digital tools available, companies can plan a budget with more resources at their fingertips to better plan for the year ahead, significantly enhancing the overall employee experience.
In terms of a direction for 2024, companies are encouraged to channel more efforts towards talent retention, given the high attrition rates across Asia. In an effort to further empower their workforce and improve organisational culture, having the right HR tech is also a crucial consideration.
On that note, let’s look at how to create your 2024 HR budget and what to include in it.
What’s Most Important in Your 2024 Budget Plan
Keeping up with recent advancements for your workforce:
Understand how the talent market in 2023 will differ from 2024’s and plan for your manpower accordingly.
Consider if there has been a new shift towards or an increased use of AI tools to enhance both employee experience and candidate experience. According to analytics and advisory company Gallup, higher employee engagement translates to increased profitability – 23% more, according to their research.
Compare the workforce flexibility levels in your company with that of the overall job market – bearing in mind that there is a greater inclination towards a more flexible workforce, in terms of temporary and contract vs. permanent staffing.
Consider any increase in costs due to inflation, as salary (and potentially benefit) increments will have to be made accordingly.
A greater focus on talent retention:
To be able to maintain a robust and healthy workforce means to prioritise talent retention. With high employee attrition rates and talent retention being a top HR challenge in 2023, a key focus for businesses should be on how to retain their workforce better in 2024.
After conducting a thorough review internally, consider looking into programmes, practices and systems that can improve employee satisfaction, provide stronger employee assistance programmes and support, as well as streamline the overall HR experience for your employees.
Remaining compliant with labour law changes:
Given that 2023 has been a year with many labour law developments across various countries in APAC – such as Malaysia’s massive overhaul of its Employment Act and Singapore’s introduction of the COMPASS framework for Employment Pass applications – it is highly crucial for companies to remain compliant with upcoming labour law changes in all locations, particularly those with a presence in multiple countries.
Compliance can come in the form of adhering to minimum wage hikes, new tax brackets, increased number of leave, and so on – all of which can incur additional costs and would need to be accounted for in the HR budget. Additionally, remaining compliant with labour laws ensures there are minimal legal and financial repercussions, leading to a more prudent budget.
How Do You Prepare an HR Budget?
When you plan a budget for HR, some crucial pointers to have in mind when listing down what to include are:
Building a Strategy for Smart Expansion: Consider your company’s expansion plans for 2024 – if any. Coming up with a solid plan if you want to expand in 2024 is crucial, and you can consider a low-cost and minimal-risk option such as an employer of record. According to an article by Yahoo! Finance, in 2023, the worldwide EOR market reached a value of USD 1890.29 million and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.07% over the forecast period, ultimately reaching USD 3745.43 million by 2030.
For companies with multiple locations, when revising the budget, HR will look at which locations are now more mature and stable compared to last year to allocate the budget more evenly.
Investing in The Right Software and HR Tech: Get acquainted with the latest AI trends in hiring and find out how the right tools can enhance your journey of finding the right people to join your workforce.
Integration Options for Different Business Sizes: Speaking of knowing what works for your company size, if you’re a regional company, you’d likely work with a payroll outsourcing provider to streamline your regional payroll. Revisit your current service to see if its integration capabilities are still suited to your business – depending on if your headcount has been expanded or downsized recently.
A Data-Driven 2024 budget: A budget that is tailored heavily based on data allows for better foresight, less errors and allows you to make better informed decisions for your businesses. A report by McKinsey Global Institute shows that data-driven organisations are likely to be 19 times more profitable, and 6 times more likely to retain those customers. You can use data from previous budgets to get insights on what to do differently this time.
What are the must-haves in your HR budget?
If you’re wondering what a complete 2024 budget should entail, the following list can serve as a general checklist of what to cover:
Recruitment and hiring
Hiring Agency / Job advertisements
Employee assistance programmes
Interviews, screening candidates and background checks
HCM software management
Onboarding procedures
Employee relocations
Recruitment marketing
Talent retention
Outplacement Services (if required)
Visas and work permits
Training and development
Employee Certifications
Trainer/expert/consultant fees
Addressing skills gaps
Learning systems
Salaries and other benefits
Employee salaries
Overtime pay
Payroll system management and maintenance
Insurance & healthcare
Other statutory contributions
Retirement plans
Paid time off
Employee bonuses
HR Technology
HR Information Systems
Payroll Outsourcing Systems and Integration costs
HR Vendor
HR Team Upskilling
HR Certifications
Workshop and Training budgets for HR team
Diversity and Inclusion
Increase in diversity hiring
Implementation of inclusive hiring practices
Employee safety and well-being
Employee health
Security at work
Physical and mental employee well-being
Others
Employee/employer appraisals and surveys
Upkeep of recreational areas in the office
Company trips
Fitness facilities
Safety trainings
Some resources to use when you plan a budget for HR:
Having a wealth of handy information can help you plan a budget more efficiently. If you’re looking for resources on the latest HR developments across idea, here are a few you might want to look at.
Resources
Guide to Hiring in Asia – A compilation of in-depth guides for various countries across Asia on how to compliantly hire employees in each country.
APAC Labour Law Insider – Quarterly updates on HR legislations across 17 locations in Asia.
China Labour Law Updates – Monthly updates on China’s labour laws.
Labour Law and Compliance Workshop Webinars – Complimentary webinars on labour law updates across various locations in Asia.
Templates and Checklists
HR Onboarding Checklist Template
Payroll Request For Payroll Template (RFP) Template
Handover List Template
Layoff Planning Checklist
China Personal Information Protection Law HR Compliance Checklist
Out of Office Message Template
In conclusion, having an HR budget is essential for companies as it provides a structured financial plan to effectively manage and optimise their most valuable asset – their workforce. It ensures that resources are allocated for hiring, training, and retaining employees, ultimately contributing to organisational success and growth.
Looking for a HR provider that can offer you HR outsourcing, advisory and HR tech services? At Links, we look forward to providing you with complete HR solutions to drive your organisation. Contact us today for more information!
Inflation
Inflation
扫一扫
添加客服
