2024年人力资源预测：全球追求生产力In this fast-evolving era, all companies and individuals are seeking for change and efficiency. We can see the core of productivity in the new year: AI. Let's have a look at details on the Josh Bersin Predictions for 2024.
在过去的二十年里，我一直在写关于人力资源预测的文章，但今年不同。我看到这一年打破了范式，改变了商业中的每一个角色。不仅人工智能会改变每家公司和每一项工作，而且公司将开始不懈地寻求生产力。
想想我们的过去。2008年金融危机后，世界开始了加速增长的零利率时期。公司增加了收入，雇用了员工，并看着他们的股价上涨。招聘继续以狂热的速度进行，导致2019年底失业率创下3.5%的历史新低。
随之而来的是大流行，在六个月内，一切都停滞不前。2020年4月，失业率飙升至15%，公司将人们送回家，我们重新设计了我们的产品、服务和经济，以应对远程工作、混合工作制和对心理健康的关注。
一旦经济再次启动（由于美国的财政刺激），公司又回到了旧的招聘周期。但随着利率上升和需求不足，我们看到裁员一再发生，在过去的18个月里，我们看到了招聘、裁员，然后再次招聘以复苏经济。
为什么会出现跷跷板效应？
首席执行官和首席财务官正处于我们所说的“工业时代”——招聘以增长经济，然后在事情好转时裁员。
今天，当我们进入2024年时，一切都不同了。我们必须“囤积人才”，投资于生产力，并重新开发和重新部署人员以实现增长。
我们生活在一个失业率为 3.8% 的世界，几乎每个职位都存在劳动力短缺，劳动力权力日益增强，员工需求不断涌现：对加薪、灵活性、自主权和福利的要求。每年有超过20%的美国员工换工作（每月2.3%），其中近一半的变化是进入新行业。
为什么这是“新常态”？
有几个原因。首先，正如我们在全球劳动力情报研究中所讨论的那样，行业是重叠的。每家公司都是数字化公司；每家公司都希望建立经常性收入来源；很快，每家公司都将使用人工智能。过去停留在行业内的职业正在转变为“基于技能的职业”，让人们比以往任何时候都更容易跳槽。
其次，员工（尤其是年轻员工）感到有权按照自己的意愿行事。他们可能会悄悄地辞职，“做兼职”，或者抽出时间转行。他们看到自己的生活很长（人们的寿命比 1970 年代和 1980 年代长得多），所以他们不介意离开你的公司去其他地方。
第三，生育率持续下降，劳动力短缺加剧。日本、中国、德国和英国的劳动力人口都在萎缩。在未来十年左右的时间里，大多数其他发达经济体也将如此。
第四，工会正在崛起。由于华盛顿的新理念，我们看到了谷歌、亚马逊、星巴克、GM、福特、Stellantis、凯撒、迪士尼、Netflix等公司的劳工活动。虽然工会参与率不到美国劳动力的11%，但在欧洲要高得多，而且这一趋势正在上升。
这一切意味着什么？
这有很多影响。
首先，公司将更加专注于建立高保留率的工作模式（有人称之为“劳动力囤积”）。这意味着改善薪酬公平，继续混合工作模式，投资于以人为本的领导力，并为员工提供在公司内部从事新职业的机会。这就是为什么人才市场、基于技能的发展和工作流程中的学习如此重要的原因。
其次，CEO必须了解员工的需求、愿望和要求。正如爱德曼的最新研究表明的那样，职业发展现在位居榜首，同时对授权、影响力和信任的渴望也排在首位。我们称之为“员工激活”的新主题：倾听员工的意见，并将有关他们工作的决定委托给他们的经理、团队和领导者。
第三，传统的“雇佣成长”模式并不总是奏效。在这个后工业时代，我们必须系统地运作，将内部发展、工作再设计、经验和招聘放在一起。这汇集了招聘、奖励和薪酬、学习与发展以及组织设计等独立领域。（阅读我们的系统性人力资源研究了解更多信息。）
“业务绩效”的真正含义是什么？
如果你是首席执行官，你希望增长收入、增加市场份额、提高盈利能力和可持续性。如果你不能通过招聘来成长（而员工不断以奇怪的方式“激活”），你还有什么选择？这很简单：您可以自动化生产并专注于生产力。
虽然这张图表令人印象深刻，但它给每个CEO都引出了一个问题：我们在这张图表上的位置是什么？我们的运营速度是否与同行一样快、一样高效？
我认为这导致了一种我称之为“生产力优势”的策略。如果你能帮助你的公司更快地发展（生产力意味着速度，而不仅仅是利润），你就可以比你的竞争对手更快地进行重塑。这才是真正让CEO们夜不能寐的原因。
考虑一下普华永道最新的CEO调查数据。今年，我们必须比以往任何时候都更快地重塑我们的公司。到2024年，45%的CEO（去年为39%）认为他们的业务在十年内将无法生存。
生产力优势
为什么生产力如此重要？有四个原因。
首先，CEO们关心它。
2024 年普华永道 CEO 调查发现，CEO 认为公司 40%的工作浪费了生产力。
尽管这听起来令人震惊，但对我来说却是真实的：太多的电子邮件、太多的会议、混乱的招聘流程、官僚主义的绩效管理等等。（HR 就有其中一些问题。）
其次，AI让人生产力优势成为可能。
人工智能的应用旨在提高白领的生产力。（过去大多数自动化都有助于蓝领或灰领工人。）生成式 AI 让我们能够更快地查找信息，了解趋势和异常值，训练自己和学习，并清理我们随身携带的文档、工作流程、门户以及后台合规和管理混乱的系统。
第三，公司的发展需要AI。
当很难找招聘到人时，你将如何成长？去年，招聘时间增加了近20%，就业市场变得更加艰难。你能在技术技能上与谷歌或OpenAI竞争吗？
内部开发、重组和自动化项目就是答案。有了生成式人工智能，机会无处不在。
第四，生产力推动重塑。
如果你考虑重塑你公司（新产品、利用人工智能、进入新市场等）的需求，最大的障碍是惯性。为什么诺基亚和黑莓的手机业务输给了苹果？因为这些公司“又胖又快乐”。在这个人才和技能短缺的时代，这是灾难的根源。
普华永道（PwC）估计，“效率低下”产生了对GDP10万亿美元的税收，相当于全球GDP的7%。这种税收阻碍了您的公司转型。每当我们简化、减少会议并更好地定义决策权时，我们都会加快并实现变革。
这一切对人力资源意味着什么？
正如我在《人力资源预测》中所描述的那样，我们有很多问题需要解决。
我们必须加快向动态工作和组织结构的转变。我们必须专注于和务实地对待技能。我们必须重新思考“员工体验”，并处理我们所说的“员工激活”。我们将不得不对我们的人力资源技术、招聘和L&D系统进行现代化改造，以利用人工智能并使这些系统更加有用。
我们的人力资源团队也将由人工智能驱动。正如我们的Galileo™客户告诉我们的那样，一个架构良好的“专家助理”可以彻底改变人力资源人员的工作方式。我们可以成为“全栈”人力资源专业人员，在几秒钟而不是几周内找到有关我们团队的数据，几秒钟与一线领导分享人力资源、领导力和管理实践。（Galileo被一些世界上最大的公司用作管理教练。）
还有一些其他变化。随着公司专注于“通过生产力实现增长”，我们必须考虑每周 4 天的工作制，我们如何将混合工作制度化，以及如何以更有效的方式连接和支持远程工作者。我们必须重新关注领导力发展，在一线经理身上花费更多的时间和金钱，并继续投资于文化和包容性。我们必须简化和重新思考绩效管理，我们必须解决令人头疼的薪酬公平问题。
还有更多。
DEI 计划必须嵌入到业务中（人力资源 DEI 警察的时代已经结束）。我们必须清理我们的员工数据，以便我们的人工智能和人才情报系统准确且值得信赖。正如我们的系统性人力资源研究所指出的那样，我们必须将思维从“支持业务”转变为“成为有价值的顾问”，并将我们的人力资源服务产品化。
所有这些都在我们本周发布的40页新报告“2024 年人力资源预测”中进行了详细说明，其中包括一系列行动计划，以帮助您思考所有这些问题。
让我提醒你一个大观念。生产力是人力资源部门存在的原因。
我们所做的一切，从招聘到辅导，从开发到组织设计，只有在帮助公司成长的情况下才能成功。作为人员流动、敬业度、技能和领导力方面的专家，我们人力资源部门每天都在提高员工和组织的生产力。2024年是专注于这一更高使命的一年。
最后一件事：照顾好自己。
该报告有15个详细的预测，每个预测都有一系列需要考虑的行动步骤。最后一个真正适合你：专注于人力资源的技能和领导力。作为流程的管理者，我们必须专注于我们自己的能力。2024年将是成长、学习和团队合作的一年。如果我们处理好这15个问题，我们将帮助我们的公司在未来一年蓬勃发展。
Josh Bersin预测的详细信息
预测研究是我们每年阅读量最大的报告。它包括我们所有研究的详细摘要，并讨论了首席执行官、首席人力资源官和人力资源专业人士的15个基本问题。它将以以下形式提供：
包含详细信息的信息图。（点击这里)
Source JOSH BERSIN
Labor Hoarding
2024年02月01日
Labor Hoarding
HR Predictions for 2024: The Global Search For Productivity2024年的HR预测强调了生产力和AI在商业和雇佣实践中的关键作用。这篇文章讨论了公司在动态的经济条件和不断变化的劳动力市场背景下，如何适应他们的人才管理和招聘策略。强调了员工赋权的增加，劳动力市场的变化，以及技能发展的重要性。文章还探讨了劳动力囤积、混合工作模式和员工激活等关键概念。此外，还涉及领导力挑战、薪酬公平、DEI计划，以及可能的四天工作周。
一起来看Josh Bersin 带来新得见解
For the last two decades I’ve written about HR predictions, but this year is different. I see a year of shattering paradigms, changing every role in business. Not only will AI change every company and every job, but companies will embark on a relentless search for productivity.
Think about where we have been. Following the 2008 financial crisis the world embarked on a zero-interest rate period of accelerating growth. Companies grew revenues, hired people, and watched their stock prices go up. Hiring continued at a fevered pace, leading to a record-breaking low unemployment rate of 3.5% at the end of 2019.
Along came the pandemic, and within six months everything ground to a halt. Unemployment shot up to 15% in April of 2020, companies sent people home, and we re-engineered our products, services, and economy to deal with remote work, hybrid work arrangements, and a focus on mental health.
Once the economy started up again (thanks to fiscal stimulus in the US), companies went back to the old cycle of hiring. But as interest rates rose and demand fell short we saw layoffs repeat, and over the last 18 months we’ve seen hiring, layoffs, and then hiring again to recover.
Why the seesaw effect?
CEOs and CFOs are operating in what we call the “Industrial Age” – hire to grow, then lay people off when things slow down.
Well today, as we enter 2024, all that is different. We have to “hoard our talent,” invest in productivity, and redevelop and redeploy people for growth.
We live in a world of 3.8% unemployment rate, labor shortages in almost every role, an increasingly empowered workforce, and a steady drumbeat of employee demands: demands for pay raises, flexibility, autonomy, and benefits. More than 20% of all US employees change jobs each year (2.3% per month), and almost half these changes are into new industries.
Why is this the “new normal?”
There are several reasons. First, as we discuss in our Global Workforce Intelligence research, industries are overlapping. Every company is a digital company; every company wants to build recurring revenue streams; and soon every company will run on AI. Careers that used to stay within an industry are morphing into “skills-based careers,” enabling people to jump around more easily than ever before.
Second, employees (particularly young ones) feel empowered to act as they wish. They may quietly quit, “work their wage,” or take time out to change careers. They see a long runway in their lives (people live much longer than they did in the 1970s and 1980s) so they don’t mind leaving your company to go elsewhere.
Third, the fertility rate continues to drop and labor shortages will increase. Japan, China, Germany, and the UK all have shrinking workforce populations. And in the next decade or so, most other developed economies will as well.
Fourth, labor unions are on the rise. Thanks to a new philosophy in Washington, we’ve seen labor activity at Google, Amazon, Starbucks, GM, Ford, Stellantis, Kaiser, Disney, Netflix, and others. While union participation is less than 11% of the US workforce, it’s much higher in Europe and this trend is up.
What does all this mean?
There are many implications.
First, companies will be even more focused on building a high-retention model for work (some call it “labor hoarding.”) This means improving pay equity, continuing hybrid work models, investing in human-centered leadership, and giving people opportunities for new careers inside the company. This is why talent marketplaces, skills-based development, and learning in the flow of work are so important.
Second, CEOs have to understand the needs, desires, and demands of workers. As the latest Edelman study shows, career growth now tops the list, along with the desire for empowerment, impact, and trust. A new theme we call “employee activation” is here: listening to the workforce and delegating decisions about their work to their managers, teams, and leaders.
Third, the traditional “hire to grow” model will not always work. In this post-industrial age we have to operate systemically, looking at internal development, job redesign, experience, and hiring together. This brings together the silo’d domains of recruiting, rewards and pay, learning & development, and org design. (Read our Systemic HR research for more.)
What does “business performance” really mean?
If you’re a CEO you want revenue growth, market share, profitability, and sustainability. If you can’t grow by hiring (and employees keep “activating” in odd ways), what choice do you have? It’s pretty simple: you automate and focus on productivity.
Why do I see this as the big topic in 2024? For three big reasons.
First, CEOs care about it.
The 2024 PwC CEO survey found that CEO’s believe 40% of the work in their company is wasted productivity.
As shocking as that sounds, it rings true to me: too many emails, too many meetings, messy hiring process, bureaucratic performance management, and more. (HR owns some of these problems.)
Second, AI enables it.
AI is designed to improve white-collar productivity. (Most automation in the past helped blue or gray collar workers.) Generative AI lets us find information more quickly, understand trends and outliers, train ourselves and learn, and clean up the mess of documents, workflows, portals, and back office compliance and administration systems we carry around like burdens.
Third, we’re going to need it.
How will you grow when it’s so hard to find people? Time to hire went up by almost 20% last year and the job market is getting even tougher. Can you compete with Google or OpenAI for tech skills?
Internal development, retooling, and automation projects are the answer. And with Generative AI, the opportunities are everywhere.
What does all this mean for HR?
Well as I describe in the HR Predictions, we have a lot of issues to address.
We have to accelerate our shift to a dynamic job and organization structure. We have to get focused and pragmatic about skills. We have to rethink “employee experience” and deal with what we call “employee activation.” And we are going to have to modernize our HR Tech, our recruiting, and our L&D systems to leverage AI and make these systems more useful.
Our HR teams will be AI-powered too. As our Galileo™ customers already tell us, a well-architected “expert assistant” can revolutionize how HR people work. We can become “full-stack” HR professionals, find data about our teams in seconds instead of weeks, and share HR, leadership, and management practices with line leaders in seconds. (Galileo is being used as a management coach in some of the world’s largest companies.)
There are some other changes as well. As the company gets focused on “growth through productivity,” we have to think about the 4-day week, how we institutionalize hybrid work, and how we connect and support remote workers in a far more effective way. We have to refocus on leadership development, spend more time and money on first line managers, and continue to invest in culture and inclusion. We have to simplify and rethink performance management, and we have to solve the vexing problem of pay-equity.
And there’s more.
DEI programs have to get embedded in the business (the days of the HR DEI Police are over). We have to clean up our employee data so our AI and talent intelligence systems are accurate and trustworthy. And we have to shift our thinking from “supporting the business” to “being a valued consultant” and productizing our HR offerings, as our Systemic HR research points out.
All this is detailed in our new 40-page report “HR Predictions for 2024,” launching this week, including a series of Action Plans to help you think through all these issues.
And let me remind you of a big idea. Productivity is why HR departments exist.
Everything we do, from hiring to coaching to development to org design, is only successful if it helps the company grow. As experts in turnover, engagement, skills, and leadership, we in HR have make people and the organization productive every day. 2024 is a year to focus on this higher mission.
One final thing: taking care of yourself.
The report has 15 detailed predictions, each with a series of action steps to consider. The last one is really for you: focus on the skills and leadership of HR. We, as stewards of the people-processes, have to focus on our own capabilities. 2024 will be a year to grow, learn, and work as a team. If we deal with these 15 issues well, we’ll help our companies thrive in the year ahead.
Details on the Josh Bersin Predictions
The predictions study is our most widely-read report each year. It includes a detailed summary of all our research and discusses fifteen essential issues for CEOs, CHROs, and HR professionals. It will be available in the following forms:
Webinar and launch on January 24: Register Here (replays will be available)
Infographic with details: Available on January 24.
Microlearning course on Predictions: Available on January 24.
Detailed Report and Action Guide: Available to Corporate Members and Josh Bersin Academy Members (JBA). (Note you can join the JBA for $495 per year and that includes our entire academy of tools, resources, certificate courses, and SuperClasses in HR.)
Labor Hoarding
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