• Lightcast
    当AI不断取代各种职位的时候,HR岗位反而增长约6%,为什么?! NACSHR核心摘要:AI大规模进入企业之后,HR会不会成为最先消失的部门?Josh Bersin最新分析给出了完全不同的答案。基于Lightcast职位数据,过去约20年HR相关岗位年复合增长约1.2%,而AI发展最迅速的最近24个月,HR岗位反而增长约6%。真正减少的,是HR Assistant、Recruiting Coordinator、Training Administrator等行政和流程型工作;增加价值的,则是HRBP、招聘判断、People Analytics、复杂员工服务和工作设计。美国BLS也预计,2024–2034年全部职业增长约3%,HR Specialists增长6%,L&D Specialists增长11%。 所以AI没有让HR消失,而是在重新划分HR工作的价值:流程被AI接管,人必须向判断、咨询、数据和业务问题上移。你觉得呢 过去两年,几乎所有关于AI与人力资源的讨论,最后都会落到一个问题:当AI能够筛选简历、回答员工问题、生成培训内容、分析人才数据,甚至开始参与绩效管理和组织决策之后,企业还需要这么多HR吗? 从直觉上看,HR似乎应该成为最先被AI压缩的职能之一。但Josh Bersin最近的一组观察,给出了一个看起来有些反常的答案:AI投入越来越多,美国HR岗位不仅没有明显消失,最近24个月反而增长约6%。 这并不意味着AI没有影响HR。恰恰相反,真正发生的变化可能比“裁掉多少HR”更深刻——AI正在重新定义什么样的HR工作值得由人来完成。 HR岗位没有消失,但HR内部的工作正在重新分配 Josh Bersin引用Lightcast招聘数据指出,过去约20年,HR相关职位保持约1.2%的年复合增长;而在生成式AI快速普及的最近24个月,HR岗位增长反而达到约6%。 这与很多人此前的预期完全不同。 过去企业部署HR系统,往往意味着流程自动化;今天部署生成式AI和Agent,更进一步意味着大量知识型、事务型工作也可以被机器处理。因此,一个自然的推论是:HR部门应该需要更少的人。 但Bersin观察到,企业真正做的并不是简单“删除HR岗位”,而是在重新组合工作。 HR Assistant、Recruiting Coordinator、Training Administrator等大量依赖流程、协调和信息处理的角色,确实正在受到自动化影响。但与此同时,企业对员工关系、人才判断、组织设计、技能发展、领导力、数据分析以及业务咨询等能力的需求并没有减少。 所以真正消失的,往往不是整个Job,而是Job里面的一部分Tasks。这可能是理解AI与就业关系最重要的区别之一。 AI首先淘汰的是任务,而不是职业名称 传统讨论经常把问题简化成:“AI会不会取代HR?”,但企业实际上并不是按照职位名称决定哪些工作交给AI。 AI不会首先判断:“这个人是HR,所以我要取代他。” AI取代的是更具体的任务:整理信息、回答标准问题、安排会议、生成文档、总结数据、制作初步报告、匹配简历、生成培训材料。 一个HR岗位可能包含20项不同工作,其中10项可以被AI明显加速,5项可以部分自动化,而另外5项仍然需要人的判断。 于是企业面临的并不是简单的“要不要这个岗位”,而是:剩下来的时间,HR应该拿来做什么? 如果AI让一名招聘人员减少大量简历筛选和面试安排工作,那么他的价值就必须转向人才判断、Candidate Experience、Hiring Manager咨询以及复杂人才市场分析。 如果AI可以自动回答大量福利和政策问题,那么员工服务团队就必须把更多精力放到复杂员工关系、特殊案例和管理者支持。 如果AI可以迅速生成培训课程,那么L&D真正的价值就不再是“制作多少门课”,而是判断企业需要什么能力,以及如何真正推动员工能力改变。 这其实是一场HR工作的价值迁移。 事务型HR正在减少,但专业型HR正在变得更重要 Josh Bersin说传统HR行政和流程型工作可能仍然占到HR岗位的30%—40%。这部分恰恰也是AI最容易产生效率提升的地方。 例如,在Walmart、Standard Chartered等企业,大量基础员工服务、Onboarding和Benefits问答可以通过技术处理,HR人员则可以转向更加复杂的员工绩效、家庭需求和员工关系问题。 在Travelers、Polestar等企业,L&D团队过去可能需要数周甚至数月开发一门课程,现在可以借助AI快速生成视频、Simulation和即时学习支持。 在招聘领域,排期、沟通和初步筛选越来越自动化,但企业同时越来越重视候选人真实性、人才质量、面试判断和面对面互动。 People Analytics同样如此。过去大量时间消耗在Survey、Benchmark和报表制作上,现在HR分析人员必须更直接地回答业务问题:为什么关键人才离职?哪些团队的生产力正在下降?AI正在如何改变岗位技能?企业应该重新配置哪些人才? 所以我们看到的不是HR价值下降,而是低价值HR工作被不断剥离之后,剩余HR工作的价值门槛正在提高。 HRBP可能是这一轮变化最典型的岗位 Josh Bersin特别提到Panasonic、Accenture等企业正在重新定义HRBP。过去很多企业所谓的HRBP,实际上仍然承担大量流程协调、政策解释、员工事务和内部资源对接工作。 AI和HR平台逐渐接管这些基础任务之后,一个真正的HRBP应该越来越像内部管理顾问。 他必须理解业务战略、组织能力、领导团队、人才结构和成本效率,并能够和业务负责人一起回答: 我们为什么招不到这些人才? 哪些岗位应该被AI重新设计? 哪些团队应该增加Headcount,哪些应该减少? 未来两年真正需要什么技能? 组织架构是否仍然适合当前业务? 这类工作并不会因为AI而减少。 相反,企业拥有越多AI工具,管理者面对的组织问题反而可能越复杂。 这也是为什么AI时代一个看似矛盾的现象开始出现:企业越来越自动化,但同时越来越需要能够处理复杂人才和组织问题的人。 AI提高效率,并不必然意味着Headcount同比例下降 这也是Bersin这篇文章最值得企业管理者思考的地方。很多AI商业案例仍然采用一个非常传统的ROI公式: “这套AI工具可以节省多少人工时间,因此可以减少多少人。” 但这种计算方式忽略了一个重要事实。知识工作与流水线生产并不完全一样。 如果AI让HR节省30%的时间,企业不一定会马上减少30%的HR人员。 企业可能选择让HR处理更多复杂问题,提高服务质量,加快招聘,提高管理者效率,推动技能转型,或者承担过去没有能力开展的组织项目。 换句话说:Productivity Gain并不自动等于Headcount Reduction。 它也可能意味着Capability Expansion。 这也是为什么我们会看到AI使用快速增长的同时,部分知识型职业仍然保持就业增长。 技术减少了一部分工作,但同时提高了组织能够解决问题的上限。 对HR而言,真正值得担心的不是岗位消失,而是价值停留在流程层 从NACSHR的角度看,Josh Bersin的观察并不能简单理解为“HR是安全的”。 恰恰相反。 它释放出的职业信号其实非常明确。 如果一个HR的核心价值仍然来自录入数据、安排面试、整理报表、回答标准问题、制作培训材料或者执行固定流程,那么AI对这个岗位的冲击几乎是确定的。 真正有增长空间的,是那些能够把AI转化成更高业务价值的人。 未来HR越来越需要理解业务、判断人才、设计组织、处理复杂员工问题、推动领导力发展、进行Workforce Planning,并重新设计Human + AI共同工作的方式。 换句话说,未来企业衡量HR价值的方式可能会发生变化。 过去是:你完成了多少HR流程? 未来可能是: 你帮助组织解决了什么问题? HR不会消失,但“只会做HR流程”的HR正在失去保护层 “HR岗位最近24个月增长约6%”是一个很容易传播的数据。 但如果只记住这个数字,反而会错过这篇文章真正重要的部分。 Josh Bersin真正描述的并不是“AI无法取代HR”。 而是一个更复杂的现实: AI正在大量取代HR工作中的低复杂度任务,同时把HR推向更复杂、更专业、更接近业务的位置。 Job还存在,但Tasks已经变化。 岗位数量可能增长,但岗位要求也在提高。 HR团队仍然存在,但每一个HR需要创造的价值正在重新被定义。 因此,AI时代真正的问题已经不再是:“未来企业还需不需要HR?” 而是:“当AI可以完成大量传统HR工作之后,企业为什么还需要你?” 能够回答这个问题的人,可能不仅不会被AI淘汰,反而会进入一个价值更高的HR时代。 NACSHR认为,这才是“HR岗位仍在增长”这组数据背后,真正值得全球HR专业人士关注的信号。
    Lightcast
    2026年08月13日
  • Lightcast
    2023 Recap: A Turbulent Year with Significant M&A Changes in the HR Technology Market Our annual reporting on M&A in the HR technology space is one of our most popular pieces of content year after year (see our 2022 version here). We look at some of the many announcements that happen over the course of the year, flag some key ones, and identify any big trends that seem to appear across the landscape. 2023 was no different than recent years. It’s a perennial “trend” from the “experts” in the space that “we will see more consolidation.” That statement is about as safe as saying that summer in Texas will be hot this year. Shocker. What’s most exciting for us at Lighthouse is that many of these companies that are succeeding and shaking up the industry are also winners in the HR Tech Awards program (now accepting 2024 submissions), a clear indication that the judges in our program see significant value in what these firms are bringing to the market for their clients. If you’re an employer looking for the right technology so support your organization, don’t hesitate to reach out for our insights. Overall HR Tech M&A Trends and Insights A considerable amount of consolidation in the services space, which is a bit tangential to this analysis of HR technology but significant for the larger market. For instance, Arthur Gallagher & Co. acquired Buck in the benefits consulting and administration services space. We’re starting to see some of these benefits companies using their data in creative ways to identify health trends, provide analytics back to employers on their workforce, etc.  WilsonHCG picked up Personify in the recruitment process outsourcing industry. Our 2023 RPO research is some of the most compelling in the world when it comes to RPO buyer insights and behaviors. Engage PEO acquired Zamp. Relatively small in the bigger scheme of things, but we’re planning some PEO research in 2024 to explore how PEO is evolving so we’re watching the space closely.  Also seeing some interesting crossover as services companies buy technology firms to scale and differentiate their services as well as technology companies buying service providers to reach more clients and bring more data into their solutions. AI-based solutions require a lot of data to train the models, and if it’s structured properly, services companies are sitting on a ton of data that can be a competitive advantage. In the past month we’ve met with two different companies that started as services firms and built a technology that could take their intellectual property and scale it to more customers via a platform. The challenge with that is that services companies make money when they touch customer accounts and support them, but product/technology companies make money when they don’t have to touch customer accounts. It’s a difficult transition to make. Let’s take a look at some of the announcements over the last year. Key 2023 HR Technology Mergers and Acquisitions Talent Acquisition and Hiring Radancy, a global leader in recruiting with its Radancy Talent Cloud, acquired Brazen, a hiring event and communication platform and Ascendify, an enterprise-focused recruiting CRM. Lightcast, a labor market insights company created by the merger of Emsi and Burning Glass, acquired Gazelle, a provider of B2B intelligence. LiveHire, an HR Tech Award-winning hiring platform, acquired Arrived Workforce Connections to support growth in candidate reach and direct sourcing. Clovers acquired Talvista to bring two inclusive hiring solutions under one roof. Fama, an innovator in social media background screening and HR Tech Award-winning company, acquired Social Intelligence. Spark Hire, a video interviewing solution, acquired Chally, an assessment solution. Video-only screening providers are trailing off in favor of video + assessment solutions that can provide a more full (and unbiased) picture of what candidates are about. Spark Hire also merged with/acquired Comeet, an ATS solution. Veritone (Pandologic AI-driven programmatic recruiting solution) acquired Broadbean, a legacy recruiting technology provider. Intrigued by the depth and breadth of data this might offer to train the Veritone AI solutions under the hood. Appcast, a leader in programmatic recruiting technology, acquired Bayard Advertising. Hirevue acquired Modern Hire, an HR Tech Award-winning provider of video interview and hiring assessment solutions for enterprise employers. Fountain, a high-volume hiring and onboarding solution, acquired Clevy. Talent Management and Employee Experience Engagedly, an HR Tech Award-winning company, acquired theEMPLOYEEapp for enabling client communications with frontline workers. Neobrain, a global skills insights and intelligence provider, acquired Flashbrand to establish a US presence and bring its popular technology to North America. Mitratech, an HR Tech Award-winning company and leader in employer compliance solutions, acquired Trakstar (talent acquisition and development) and Circa (DEI and OFCCP compliance). Simpplr, an internal communication and work hub, acquired Socrates.ai, one of the industry’s most compelling intelligent chatbot solutions for employee experience and navigation, to increase the ease of which employees find, access, and act on information. Edenred acquired Reward Gateway, a rewards and recognition provider. Perceptyx acquired Humu, the “intelligent nudges” company made famous by its founder, former Google HR leader Lazlo Bock. Intrigued to see this functionality in the Perceptyx ecosystem. Peoplelogic, an HR Tech Award-winning firm, picked up Plai to enhance its features across performance management and the overall employee experience. Core HR/HCM/Compensation Salary.com, an HR Tech Award-winning company, acquired CompXL to scale its enterprise compensation management functionality across merit increases, bonus allocations, and other rewards. Paycor, an HR Tech Award-winning SMB HR, payroll, and talent solution, acquired Verb for microlearning support. ADP, a leader in payroll and HR solutions, acquired Sora, a low-code workflow automation tool. Deltek, the global leader in payroll and finance solutions for government contractors, acquired Replicon, a workforce management system. When I Work, an HR Tech Award-winning company for its workforce management solution, acquired Lean Financial to incorporate earned wage access into the solution. UKG acquired Immedis, a global payroll solution, to enable more seamless payroll in countries around the world. Learning and Talent Development This year we’re unveiling our new Learning Tech Awards program to focus more deeply on the sophisticated and robust technologies supporting talent development, employee growth, and skills intelligence across the industry. If you operate in this space, you won’t want to miss it. Docebo, a leader in the global LMS market, acquired Edugo.ai to increase its AI capabilities. Go1, a leader in global learning content, acquired Blinkist and Anders Pink. LMS365 acquired performance management solution Weekly10. The Bottom Line In spite of the continuing challenges from an economic perspective, 2024 is poised to have some interesting activity. Election years are always a bit unpredictable, and many new providers are emerging to tackle today’s most pressing talent and workforce challenges. Stay on top of the latest by following our ongoing research and insights across the HR technology market. Curious what we do at Lighthouse? We work with employers by providing research and advisory services around 1) the complicated HR technology landscape, 2) the talent trends and practices that matter most to the modern workforce, and 3) executive presentations to internal teams on how the market is changing in their industry or demographic. We work with solution providers and vendors that want to sell more product and serve more customers. We use a combination of advisory, industry insights, market intelligence, and custom research to support our partners. HR Tech Awards opens for submissions on January 3rd: learn about benefits of participation Ben Eubanks Ben Eubanks is the Chief Research Officer at Lighthouse Research & Advisory. He is an author, speaker, and researcher with a passion for telling stories and making complex topics easy to understand. His latest book Talent Scarcity answers the question every business leader has asked in recent years: “Where are all the people, and how do we get them back to work?” It shares practical and strategic recruiting and retention ideas and case studies for every employer. His first book, Artificial Intelligence for HR, is the world’s most-cited resource on AI applications for hiring, development, and employee experience. Ben has more than 10 years of experience both as an HR/recruiting executive as well as a researcher on workplace topics. His work is practical, relevant, and valued by practitioners from F100 firms to SMB organizations across the globe. He has spoken to tens of thousands of HR professionals across the globe and enjoys sharing about technology, talent practices, and more. His speaking credits include the SHRM Annual Conference, Seminarium International, PeopleMatters Dubai and India, and over 100 other notable events. Contact Ben
    Lightcast
    2024年01月05日