The best HR & People Analytics articles of September 2024
September has been a phenomenal month. Indeed, in the ten years I’ve been writing the Data Driven HR Monthly, I can’t recall a month when there has been so much insightful content to choose from. I believe this is indicative of the journey HR is on from its traditional role as a support function to becoming a true strategic partner to the CEO and the board. As Janine Vos, Managing Board Member and CHRO at Rabobank, highlighted this past week at the Insight222 Global Executive Retreat, people analytics has an important role to play in elevating the HR function and enabling it to successfully navigate this transition:
People Analytics helps give the chief human resources officer credibility (with the executive team and board).
This edition of the Data Driven HR Monthly is sponsored by our friends at Worklytics
A New Way to Approach Manager Effectiveness
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The Changing Role of the People Analytics Executive
My personal highlight of September was the 7th annual Insight222 Global Executive Retreat, which took place from September 24 to 26 at the Duin en Kruidberg for member companies of the Insight222 People Analytics Program®. I’ll share more about the Retreat in a separate blog in a few days time, but for now I'll highlight this year’s theme: The Changing Role of the People Analytics Executive, and the stellar cast of inspirational speakers:
Janine Vos discussed the strategic influence of the CHRO and the close partnership she has at Rabobank with the people data and innovation team led by Marc Jansen.
Prasad Setty shared insights from his 14 years leading people analytics at Google as well as painting a vision of the future of people analytics in the age of generative AI.
Kevin Friesen, Neora Myrow PhD, and Nancy Duarte delivered an interactive workshop on influencing through data storytelling.
Erin Meyer ended proceedings with a tour de force masterclass on leading across cultures I global organisations.
The Retreat is one of the services included as part of the Insight222 People Analytics Program. If you are a people analytics leader and would like to find out more, you can contact the team here.
Attendees at the Insight222 Global Executive Retreat 2024, Duin en Kruidberg, Amsterdam
September and October World Tour
As well as the Retreat, I’m speaking at and attending a number of events in October. This week, I’m in New York, moderating a panel on Workestration at the New York Strategic HR Analytics Meetup (Sept 30), and chairing People Analytics World (Oct 2 and 3). The next stop after that will be Paris, where I’ll once again have the privilege of hosting the main stage at UNLEASH World (Oct 16 and 17) - thanks to Marc Coleman and the team. Then it’s back to the US for the North America Peer Meeting for member companies of the Insight222 People Analytics Program®, which will be hosted by Phil Willburn and his team at Workday in Pleasanton (Oct 22 and 23). I hope to see some of you at one of these events. Thanks too to Marcus Downing for hosting me at the recent Mercer event in London where I had the pleasure of sharing the stage with Ravin Jesuthasan, CFA, FRSA (see here), and Jennifer Neumann for inviting me to speak at Workday Rising in Las Vegas (see here), where it was great to meet up with the likes of Priyanka Mehrotra, Richard Rosenow, and Cory Edmonds.
Speaking onstage at Workday Rising, Las Vegas, 2024
Register for an Insight222 webinar on October 10: Building the People Analytics Operating Model
Join me and the Insight222 team on October 10 when we’ll be hosting a webinar on the recently published research on. You can register for the webinar here.
Share the love!
Enjoy reading the collection of resources for September and, if you do, please share some data driven HR love with your colleagues and networks. Thanks to the many of you who liked, shared and/or commented on August’s compendium.
If you enjoy a weekly dose of curated learning (and the Digital HR Leaders podcast), the Insight222 newsletter: Digital HR Leaders newsletter is published every Tuesday – subscribe here.
HYBRID, GENERATIVE AI AND THE FUTURE OF WORK
ANDY JASSY - Message from CEO Andy Jassy: Strengthening our culture and teams | JOSE MARIA BARRERO, NICHOLAS BLOOM, SHELBY BUCKMAN, AND STEVEN J. DAVIS - The Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes – September 2024 | ANNIE DEAN – Lessons Learned: 1,000 Days of Distributed at Atlassian
This special on hybrid work was inspired by Amazon CEO Andy Jassy’s announcement that Amazon is going back to five days in the office: “to further strengthen our culture and teams.” This comes hot on the heels of KPMG’s CEO Outlook Survey, which finds that CEOs are hardening their stance on returning to pre-pandemic ways of working, with 83 percent expecting a full return to the office within the next three years. Forensic analysis by Bruce Daisley (here), Phil Kirschner(here) and Nick Bloom (here) examines Amazon’s move and the validity of KPMG’s claim. This confirms that (1) Amazon is an outlier. (2) The findings by KPMG contradict the WFH Research that Nick is publishing every month, which shows working from home has remained flat since early 2023 and has stabilised at around 25% (see FIG 1). As Bloom suggest “shock sells,” which explains the extent of the media coverage about Amazon and the KPMG survey. To balance things out, I recommend reading about Dropbox’s Virtual First model (which chief people officer, Melanie Rosenwasser explains has “led to clear benefits, including higher employee engagement and retention.”). I also recommend reading a new report authored by Annie Dean summarising the findings from the first 1,000 days of Atlassian’s Team Anywhere approach to distributed work. As Rabobank’s CHRO Janine Vos urged in her session at Insight222’s Global Executive Retreat this week, the role of HR and People Analytics teams is to provide data that steers executive decision making around hybrid and return to office. It would be interesting to learn what data (if any) was used to inform Amazon’s decision to return to the office five days a week.
FIG 1: WFH is stable at c35% of days (Source: WFH Research)
BCG HENDERSON INSTITUTE - GenAI Doesn’t Just Increase Productivity. It Expands Capabilities
The ability to rapidly take on new types of work with GenAI - particularly tasks that traditionally require niche skills that are harder to find, such as data science - can be a game-changer for individuals and companies alike.
The BCG Henderson Institute follow-up their first landmark study on GAI in the workplace (see: How People Can Create - and Destroy - Value with Generative AI). The sophomore experiment tests how workers can use GenAI to complete tasks that are beyond their current capabilities. The findings from the study are illuminating: (1) Participants were able to instantly expand their aptitude for new data-science tasks, even when they had no prior experience in coding or statistics. (2) Those with moderate coding experience performed better on all three tasks, even when coding was not involved. This suggests that an engineering mindset - which coding helps develop - could be a key success factor for workers adapting to GenAI tools. The article also provides guidance on: When and how to pair humans with GenAI (see FIG 2), as well as visualising and detailing the workforce change-management implications (see FIG 3). (Authors: Daniel Sack, Lisa Krayer, PhD, Emma Wiles, Mohamed Abbadi, Urvi A., Ryan Kennedy, Cristián Arnolds, and François Candelon).
FIG 2: When and How to Pair Humans and GenAI (Source: BCG Henderson Institute)
FIG 3: Workforce and Change-Management Implications (Source: BCG Henderson Institute)
GARTNER - Hype Cycle for the Future of Work, 2024
Only 14% of organizations have reached the level of maturity where they are able to empower workers to embrace new ways of working.
Gartner’s inaugural Hype Cycle for the Future of Work (see FIG 4) highlights the core technologies set to transform how work is done by augmenting and enhancing human capabilities with intelligent technology. Five standouts from the analysis are: (1) Workers want a more personalised experience, and are building it for themselves. (2) CEOs are captivated by AI and are investing in new strategies. (3) Low digital workplace maturity is a barrier to improving worker productivity and time to competency. (4) Data Storytelling and Generative AI (already!) have entered the Trough of Disillusionment. (5) Hybrid Work and Self-Service Analytics are on the Slope of Enlightenment. The article also contains some illuminating analysis on a number of the ‘on the rise’ innovations including Exoskeletons (Tori Paulman), Cyberpsychology (Cynthia P.), Digital Twin of the Employee (Helen Poitevin) and Workforce Nudgetech (Rania Stewart). Thanks to Phil Kirschner for alerting me to this work in his excellent LinkedIn post on the study, which linked to an insightful article Phil co-authored with Natasha Ouslis, PhD and Dr. Julia Sperling-Magro on applying behavioural science and nudging to the workplace.
FIG 4: Hype Cycle for the Future of Work, 2024 (Source: Gartner)
NICKY DRIES, JOOST LUYCKX, AND PHILIP ROGIERS - What 570 Experts Predict the Future of Work Will Look Like
While it’s impossible to know exactly what the future of work will look like, it doesn’t stop (lots of!) people from having opinions. In their study, Nicky Dries, Joost Luyckx, and Philip Rogiers from KU Leuven, asked 570 experts to rank the likelihood of predictions made by technologists, economists and journalists. They landed on the sequence of events laid out in FIG 5, which get increasingly concerning and dystopian by the decade. Not one for the faint hearted!
FIG 5: A timeline of future of work predictions (Source: Dries et al)
MCKINSEY - Charting a path to the data- and AI-driven enterprise of 2030
Generative AI has increased the focus on data, putting pressure on companies to make substantive shifts to build a truly data-based organization.
These are the opening words to a recent article by McKinsey’s Dr. Asin Tavakoli, Holger Harreis, Kayvaun Rowshankish, and Michael Bogobowicz, which provides guidance on seven essential priorities for leaders to focus on to realise the data-driven enterprise of 2030. They argue that the key enabler to realising the potential of GenAI is data: “Without access to good and relevant data, this new world of possibilities and value will remain out of reach.” Three of the seven priorities outlined are (1) Data Leadership (“Companies need to find leaders skilled in governance and compliance, engineering and architecture, and business value"). (2) Talent (see FIG 6), and (3) Digital Trust.
FIG 6: New skills to manage GenAI will likely lead to both expanded and new data roles (Source: McKinsey)
PwC - 2024 Workforce Radar Report Executive Summary | Full Paper
The workforce of today won’t become the workforce of tomorrow unless businesses act right now.
But how? That’s the exam question that PwC’s inaugural Workforce Radar study attempts to answer across an insightful and thought-provoking report of 48 pages. The research identifies five workforce signals (see FIG 7) that business leaders and chief people officers can use to deliver enterprise-wide transformation. (1) Taking both a talent magnet and talent factory approach (e.g. levers such as meaningful work, skill-building, and culture). (2) Devising a location strategy that appreciates over time. (3) The intelligent enterprise – through HR harnessing and taking the lead on GenAI (see FIG 8). (4) Empowering transformation with a workforce balance sheet. (5) Investing in building transformative leadership. Kudos to the authors: Anthony Abbatiello, Julia Lamm, Reid Carpenter, Craig O'Donnell, and Christopher Hannegan.
FIG 7: Five Workforce Radar Signals (Source: PwC)
FIG 8: Emerging areas for Leading Digital HR Leaders to lean-in (Source: PwC)
PEOPLE ANALYTICS
NAOMI VERGHESE, JONATHAN FERRAR, AND JORDAN PETTMAN - Building the People Analytics Ecosystem: Operating Model v2.0 ARTICLE | FULL REPORT
In the August edition of the Data Driven HR Monthly, I highlighted the new Insight222 study on the evolution of the people analytics operating model. This month I’d like to highlight one specific aspect of the report about the role of the people analytics leader. The research, which was conducted by my colleagues, Naomi Verghese, Jonathan Ferrar and Jordan Pettman, found that three profiles of people analytics leader are emerging (see FIG 9): (1) Data and Analytics Specialist Leader (focused on a scope for data and analytics research, insights and analytical product development and deployment). (2) Analytics-led Strategy Leader (encompassing a broad set of analytics responsibilities: consulting, research, employee listening, product development, reporting, data governance, workforce planning and AI). (3) Portfolio Analytics Leader (responsibility for people analytics and one or more other closely associated topic, such as people strategy, HR technology, HR operations, skills management, or employee experience). Read the report for more detail on each of the profiles together with examples of each leader persona Featuring Anthony Ferreras, Aashish Sharma, and Alexis Saussinan.
FIG 9: Responsibilities of the three people analytics leader personas, aligned to the People Analytics Ecosystem (Source: Insight222)
COLE NAPPER, JIN YAN, AND BEN ZWEIG - What is happening to people analytics? A 15- year trend (Part 1)
How has people analytics employment changed in the last 15 years, and specifically how has the environment changed in the last two years? That was the question that Cole Napper along with Jin Yan and Ben Zweig sought to answer after being inspired by Alexis Fink to analyse these topics. The study identified a number of interesting – and perhaps counterintuitive – findings. These include: (1) People analytics positions in the US have actually declined in the last two years – the data suggests more than 1,000 people have left the field during this time (see FIG 10). (2) 83% of people leaving the field move to roles outside people analytics but mostly in HR. (3) People analytics positions are sensitive to changes in interest rates and money supply.
FIG 10: People analytics positions have been decreasing in the last two years (Source: Revelio Labs)
PIETRO MAZZOLENI - People Data Excellence: Driving Quality through Empowerment, Standardization, and Automation
Ensuring high-quality (people) data is crucial for building leaders' trust in data-driven talent decisions and reducing the need for manual reconciliation. Moreover, maintaining top-tier data quality is essential for the successful implementation of AI and GenAI technologies.
In the latest edition of his excellent People Data Platform newsletter, Pietro Mazzoleni breaks down the three ingredients IBM brought together to build Workforce 360, IBM’s internal people data platform, and deliver people data excellence: (1) Empowerment (“Putting Data & Knowledge in the Hands of Users”). (2) Standardisation (“Establishing a Unified Approach for data and processes”). (3) Automation (“Enhancing Efficiency Through Technology”).
FIG 11: Source – Pietro Mazzoleni
HENRIK HÅKANSSON - People Analytics: Generative AI | AMIT MOHINDRA – Definitions of People Analytics | KEITH MCNULTY - The Three Most Common Statistical Tests You Should Deeply Understand | LAURA HILGERS - How to Measure Quality of Hire, According to 4 Experts | JILL BARTH - How people analytics transformed this org’s HR from old-school to inspirational
In each edition of the Data Driven HR Monthly, I feature a collection of articles by current and recent people analytics leaders. These are intended to act as a spur and inspiration to the field. Five are highlighted in this month’s edition. (1) Henrik Håkansson highlights a common predicament for people analytics leaders – stakeholder requests to implement GenAI. He offers sage advice on the ideal response: “GenAI is a solution. So naturally I ask: What is the problem? What is the value? Why would GenAI be better than what we are doing today? Are we trying to save money and cut costs, or actually do things better or faster?” (2) Amit Mohindra assembles a handy list of definitions of people analytics. (3) As Keith McNulty explains, hypothesis testing is one of the most fundamental elements of inferential statistics. In his article, Keith uses an example to show three common hypothesis tests (Welch’s t-test, Correlation test, and Chi-square test of difference in proportion) and how they work under the hood, as well as showing how to run them in R and Python and to understand the results. (4) Laura Hilgers’ article on the elusive quality of hire metric is a must-read for people analytics and talent acquisition professionals. It features guidance from four experts in the field: Hung Lee, Tim Sackett, SPHR, SCP (see FIG 12 for Tim’s equation to measure quality of hire), Stacey A. Gordon, MBA, and Jennifer McClure. (5) Finally, Sonia Boyle, CHRL - chief people officer at Gore Mutual, explains to Jill Barth HR Tech Editor how people analytics has been at the centre of the company’s HR transformation.
FIG 12: How to measure Quality of Hire (Source: Tim Sackett)
THE EVOLUTION OF HR, LEARNING, AND DATA DRIVEN CULTURE
DAVE ULRICH - Realizing Talent Advantage: Evidence and Implications from the Organization Guidance System
In 2020, Dave Ulrich and his colleagues at The RBL Group, developed the Organization Guidance System (OGS), which was designed to align desired stakeholder outcomes across four human capital pathways: talent, organisation, leadership and human resources. Five years on, in a new series of articles, Dave provides an update on the key findings to date. In this article, Dave focuses on the talent pathway, highlighting ten talent investments that deliver stakeholder value, and then presents analysis from 187 companies on the relative impact of these investments across five stakeholder outcomes (see FIG 13). The article then describes how individual companies can use the OGS to guide investment in the areas that will provide them with the greatest return.
FIG 13: Heatmap of impact of ten talent initiatives on five stakeholder outcomes (Source: Dave Ulrich)
JILL GOLDSTEIN, CHRIS HAVRILLA, CHACKO THOMAS, AND CATHY FILLARE - Reimagine human potential in the gen AI era: Revolutionizing work to boost business value
With their unique perspective and understanding of organizational culture, workforce needs, skills development, and change management, HR leaders are well-positioned to take a leadership role in their organization’s future of work strategy.
A new study by the IBM Institute for Business Value and Oracle, highlights the top concerns facing executives around the future of work, including the need for a skills-focused foundation and a well-defined strategy. The big takeaway for HR leaders is that while executives acknowledge that HR contributes to their organisation’s future of work strategy, not enough of them are in the driver’s seat. Only one in five executives say HR owns the future of work strategy in their organisation today. The report provides guidance to HR leaders on possible actions: (1) Build a future-ready culture that encourages experimentation. (2) Give your workforce a voice in the future of work strategy. (3) Drive technology transformation and champion AI use case adoption. The report also highlights critical workforce skills that will increase in demand by 2026 (see FIG 14). (Authors: Jill Goldstein, Chris Havrilla, Chacko Thomas, and Cathy Fillare).
FIG 14: Critical workforce capabilities—increases from today to 2026 (Source: IBM Institute of Business Value)
WORKFORCE PLANNING, ORG DESIGN, AND SKILLS-BASED ORGANISATIONS
MCKINSEY - The gen AI skills revolution: Rethinking your talent strategy
Developing the software talent companies need to grow means thinking in terms of skills rather than roles to navigate this period of uncertainty around talent.
According to McKinsey research, nearly 70 percent of top economic performers, versus just half of their peers, use their own software to differentiate themselves from their competitors. GenAI offers an opportunity to multiply this value. In the article, Alharith Hussin, Anna Wiesinger, Charlotte Relyea, Martin Harrysson, Suman Thareja, Prakhar Dixit and Thao Dürschlag, provide guidance on: (1) The new skills software teams will require. (2) How their evolution will alter roles and risks. (3) How companies can orient their talent management practices toward developing skills for greater flexibility and responsiveness. This includes grounding strategic workforce planning in business needs and skills.
The talent transformation starts with HR leaders developing a strategic workforce plan that’s built around skills.
FIG 15: Generative AI affects every phase of the software development life cycle (Source: McKinsey)
EMPLOYEE LISTENING, EMPLOYEE EXPERIENCE, AND EMPLOYEE WELLBEING
VOLKER JACOBS – Squaring the Circle: Why the old promise of P&O transformation –more for less – can finally be fulfilled
With effective, generative AI, P&O transformations can deliver a better, friction-free work experience for managers and employees. With a friction-free experience for managers and employees, we enable higher productivity and engagement levels. And it goes without saying that with AI taking on P&O tasks we can reduce cost of the function: More for less. Squaring the circle. Three ingredients: Data, AI, and EX.
In his thoughtful paper, Volker Jacobs, CEO at employee experience experts TI PEOPLE, highlights how HR transformations have historically undelivered their promise of more business value at lower cost. Instead, Volker argues, with the capabilities offered through AI and digitisation allied to rising expectations for better work experiences, the scene is now set to realise the dream of ‘more for less’. The catalyst? A shift from transformation focus on process to data as one of three ingredients to square the circle: Data, AI and Employee Experience leading to the business outcomes including improved productivity, better customer experience, and lower cost (see FIG 16).
FIG 16: Shifting HR transformation focus from process to data (Source: Volker Jacobs, TI People)
MALISSA CLARK - A Workaholic’s Guide to Reclaiming Your Life
In the latest edition of the Harvard Business Review, the Big Idea Series focuses on an increasingly important topic: Overcoming Overwork and Workaholism. Workaholism is defined in the lead article, by Malissa Clark, as: “Workaholism is when work dominates your thoughts and your activities, to the detriment of other aspects of your life, including but not limited to your relationships and your health.” Does that sound uncomfortably familiar? If so, like me you’ll probably welcome the six coping strategies Malissa outlines in her article: (1) Redefining “urgent”. (2) Reinventing the to-do list (see FIG 17). (3) Learning to say “no” and delegate. (4) Fixing the workaholic clock. (5) Controlling rumination. (6) Embracing rest and recovery.
Through mechanisms such as redefining what is and is not urgent, fixing the workaholic clock, and embracing rest and recovery, workaholics can unlearn toxic behaviors and reclaim their time and lives.
FIG 17: The Eisenhower Matrix (Source: Marissa Clark, Harvard Business Review)
LEADERSHIP, CULTURE, AND LEARNING
PER HUGANDER AND AMY EDMONDSON - Skills Training Links Psychological Safety to Revenue Growth
Organizational performance can be improved by viewing psychological safety as a trainable skill that individuals develop with practice.
Hugander Per and Amy Edmondson present a case study from Nordic bank SEB where training for executives on psychological safety and perspective taking was identified as the catalyst that enabled the investment bank to achieve revenues 25% above yearly targets in a strategically important market segment. The article provides four recommendations for leaders who want to make progress on strategic challenges and improve financial results by leveraging psychological safety and perspective-taking: (1) Focus on two levels in parallel: individuals and teams. (2) Expand leadership responsibility. (3) Keep strategy and performance front and centre. (4) Link skills to short-term gains to counteract perceived costs. For more on psychological safety, tune in to Amy’s conversation with me on the Digital HR Leaders podcast: How Learning to Fail Can Help People and Organisations to Thrive.
ANDREW WHITE, ADAM CANWELL, AND MICHAEL SMETS - Is Your Organizational Transformation Veering Off Course?
Leaders who achieve successful transformations create and maintain an environment where people can experiment, learn, and take ownership of their work — and ultimately feel good about their effort
According to a study by Andrew White, Adam Canwell and Michael Smets, 96% of all organisational transformations face significant challenges that can derail the whole program. Their research identified that changes in a team’s emotional energy (“the collective mood, vibe, and intensity of emotions within a group”) can signal when a transformation is in danger (see FIG 18). They then reveal the three-step process successful leaders use to navigate a turning point – increasing transformation performance by 12 times from 6 to 72 per cent: (1) They look for shifts in the team’s emotional energy (e.g. lack of clarity on how to proceed, ineffective collaboration, decreased engagement). (2) They dig into the underlying issue at play – by involving the whole team to decide the course of action. (3) They get to action — quickly (e.g. by creating team alignment, adjusting organisational priorities, and investing in the skills and mindset required for the transformed company).
FIG 18: How emotional energy can signal a transformational turning point (Source: White et al)
DIVERSITY, EQUITY, INCLUSION, AND BELONGING
LORI NISHIURA MACKENZIE, SARAH A. SOULE, SHELLEY J CORRELL, AND MELISSA C. THOMAS HUNT - How DEI Can Survive This Era of Backlash
When they’re given adequate support — like protected time, advancement opportunities, leadership development, and compensation for their DEI work — ERG leaders can act as a strategic conduit between employees and organizational leaders.
Despite recent backlash against and cuts to organisational DEI initiatives, researchers from the Stanford VMware Women’s Leadership Innovation Lab - Lori Nishiura Mackenzie, Sarah Soule, Shelley J. Correll, and Melissa C. Thomas-Hunt - argue in their Harvard Business Review article that DEI isn’t dead in the U.S. Instead, they say it’s experiencing a period of what social movement scholars call “closed doors,” where the obvious route for change is no longer easily accessible. They recently convened a gathering of 14 chief diversity officers (CDOs) to unpack what’s happening in their world. In the article, they highlight the striking similarities between current DEI strategies and the tactics used by feminist movement builders during times of closed doors — and present four strategies for continuing the important work of DEI while it’s under attack: (1) Sustain networks of people engaged in DEI work. (2) Preserve the collective memory. (3) Reframe and rename the work for survival. (4) Nurture the collective identity within the DEI community.
HR TECH VOICES
Much of the innovation in the field continues to be driven by the vendor community, and I’ve picked out a few resources from September that I recommend readers delve into:
JASON CORSELLO AND THOMAS OTTER | ACADIAN VENTURES - 2024 Future of Work 100 - An excellent resource compiled by Jason Corsello and Thomas Otter of Acadian Ventures counting down the top 100 venture-backed companies building businesses that make work better, fairer, more meaningful, and ultimately more productive. Together, the Future of Work 100 has raised a cumulative $29.5 billion with a total market valuation over $140.3 billion.
FIG 19: Source – Acadian Ventures
PHIL WILLBURN - Global Workforce Report: Top Talent Is Hard to Find, Harder to Keep – Phil Willburn, head of people analytics at Workday summarises the key findings of the recently released Workday Global Workforce Report: Restoring Trust Before Your Top People Leave covering hiring, turnover of top performers, meaningful work, and internal mobility. Phil also highlights the key actions for business leaders: (1) Rebuild trust through transparency. (2) Make work meaningful. (3) Personalise your employee experience efforts based on tenure. (4) Embrace AI strategically. An absolute must-read.
FIG 20: Current use of AI and ML for recruiting (Source: Workday)
CATHERINE COPPINGER - Manager Facetime: Why It's Useful and How to Measure It – The latest in a series of insightful articles by Catherine Coppinger of Worklytics analyses the importance of manager facetime and provides guidance on how to use the insights identified to improve team effectiveness.
FIG 21 – Source: Worklytics
BEN COWAN - You Don’t Need to Abandon Jobs to Become a Skills-Based Organization – Ben Cowan of Degreed explains that while jobs aren’t likely to disappear this shouldn’t hinder efforts by companies to adopt skills-based talent practices: “The reality is that moving away from jobs is not something most organizations are likely to do in the near term and it does not need to hold you back from adopting other skills-based practices.”
FRANCISCO MARIN - Towards a Network-First Future of Work – Francisco Marin of Cognitive Talent Solutions provides an insightful breakdown of the differences between Hierarchy-First and Network-First approaches across then organisational concepts (see FIG 22): “While hierarchies have long been the norm, favoring clear lines of authority and collaborative control, the network-first model prioritizes collaborative freedom, decentralization, and the strength of informal relationships.”
FIG 22: Hierarchy-First vs. Network-First Approach (Source: Francisco Marin)
PODCASTS OF THE MONTH
In another month of high-quality podcasts, I’ve selected five gems for your aural pleasure: (you can also check out the latest episodes of the Digital HR Leaders Podcast – see ‘From My Desk’ below):
JEREMY SHAPIRO AND CHRIS SHULTZ - HR, Workforce Automation, and GenAI at Merck – Jeremy Shapiro and Chris Shultz join Stacia Sherman Garr and Dani Johnson on RedThread Research’s Workplace Stories podcast to share how (and why) Merck is embracing AI to streamline HR processes, support innovation, and maintain ethical considerations.
COURTNEY MCMAHON – People Analytics at Colgate-Palmolive – Courtney McMahon joins Cole Napper and Scott Hines, PhD on the Directionally Correct podcast to discuss how to get a smaller people analytics function to punch above its weight, and how Colgate-Palmolive is using One Model to scale people analytics to HRBPs and the business.
KEITH MCNULTY – Applying Mathematical Principles to People Analytics Part 1 | Part 2 – In a two-part episode, Keith McNulty joins hosts Matthew Lampe, PsyD, Natasha Ouslis, PhD, and Bilal Alperen Ergun on the ScienceForWork podcast to discuss how mathematical principles can be applied to organizational data and people analytics.
JEFFREY PFEFFER - How Modern Work is Creating a Health Crisis - Jeffrey Pfeffer, professor of organizational behaviour at Stanford University and author of Dying for a Paycheck, joins Lars Schmidt on Redefining Work to discuss employee well-being and explore the harmful effects of workplace stress and poor working conditions on employee health.
SUE CANTRELL AND TRAVIS DION - Beyond productivity: Rethinking performance metrics – In an episode of Deloitte’s Capital H podcast, host David Mallon, talks to Susan Cantrell, and Travis Dion about moving beyond traditional employee productivity metrics —followed by a roundtable discussion featuring David, Sue, Julie Duda, and Diane Sinti.
VIDEO OF THE MONTH
LASZLO BOCK - Former Google exec talks about what makes a strong CHRO candidate
In an interview with Human Resource Executive, Laszlo Bock, former Head of HR at Google and a arch proponent of people analytics, provides guidance on what makes a strong chief people officer. He emphasises the need for HR executives to develop their understanding of business beyond a simple familiarity with their company’s products and services: “It’s not that (CHRO candidates) don’t understand that we make widgets. It’s that they don’t understand why we’re willing to pay $1.3 billion to buy a company but not $1.4 billion.” For aspiring chief people officers, I’d also recommend investigating the Berkeley Transformative CHRO Leadership Program, where Bock is co-faculty director.
BOOK OF THE MONTH
RAVIN JESUTHASAN AND TANUJ KAPILASHRAMI – The Skills-Powered Organization: The Journey to the Next-Generation Enterprise
Ravin Jesuthasan, CFA, FRSA and Tanuj Kapilashrami provide a step-by-step guide to designing, implementing and activating the skills-powered organisation. They outline why and how jobs are giving way to skills as the currency of work and why this pivot requires us to rethink everything we know about work. The inspiring cases presented in the book discuss how leading companies are reinventing themselves to be skills-based organisations and how this is helping them to transform value for customers, communities, and stakeholders.
RESEARCH REPORT OF THE MONTH
MARGRIET BENTVELZEN, CORINE BOON, AND DEANNE N. DEN HARTOG - A person centered approach to individual people analytics adoption – In their paper, Margriet Bentvelzen, Corine Boon, Deanne Den Hartog study people analytics adoption through the lens of the implementation of people analytics technology. They identify four profiles related to differences in user satisfaction and the frequency and versatility of PA technology use. They demonstrate that performance benefits, social influence, required effort, and facilitating conditions jointly affect the use of PA technology, but that the latter two might be the most influential factors. FIG 23 demonstrates the four user profiles identified in the paper: the skeptic diplomats, the optimistic strugglers, the optimists, and the enthusiasts. Thanks to Dirk Jonker for highlighting this insightful contribution to the field.
FIG 23: Source – Bentvelze, Boon and Den Hartog (2024)
FROM MY DESK
September saw the return of the Digital HR Leaders podcast after its summer sojourn with the first four episodes of Series 41, kindly sponsored by our friends at Visier Inc.. Thanks to Adedamola Adeleke and the team.
LYNDA GRATTON AND DIANE GHERSON - The Key Role of HR In Successfully Integrating a Blended Workforce – Lynda Gratton and Diane Gherson join me to discuss the impact of a blended workforce on organisational structures, the evolving role of managers, and the opportunities and challenges for HR.
ANGELA LE MATHON - How GSK is Using Data, Analytics and AI to Drive its HR Transformation - Angela LE MATHON, Vice President of People Data and Analytics at GSK, joins me to explore how GSK is utilising data-driven strategies and AI integration to future-proof their HR initiatives.
KEITH BIGELOW - HR’s Strategic Role in Managing the AI-driven Talent Restructure – Keith Bigelow, Chief Product Officer at Visier, joins me to explore the critical role HR plays in leading digital transformation—and how AI is changing the game.
TANUJ KAPILASHRAMI AND RAVIN JESUTHASAN - How to Build the Skills-Powered Organisation – Tanuj Kapilashrami and Ravin Jesuthasan, CFA, FRSA join me to share insights from their book, The Skills-Powered Organisation: The Journey to the Next-Generation Enterprise (see Book of the Month). Tanuj also shares insights from the skills journey at Standard Chartered, including how the bank quantified a saving of $60,000 per person by upskilling and reskilling employees to redeploy talent from sunset jobs to sunrise jobs.
Skills [are] becoming the currency of work and work flowing not to jobs, but to skills... If done well, it has the massive power to unlock untapped productivity potential within the company.
LOOKING FOR A NEW ROLE IN PEOPLE ANALYTICS OR HR TECH?
I’d like to highlight once again the wonderful resource created by Richard Rosenow and the One Model team of open roles in people analytics and HR technology, which now numbers close to 500 roles – and has now been developed into a LinkedIn newsletter too.
THANK YOU
Srikant Chellappa and the team at Engagedly Inc for including me in their 8th annual list of the 2024 Top 100 HR Influencers
Hallie Bregman, PhD for her wonderfully generous post following our meeting at the Boston People Analytics MeetUp organised by Ramesh Karpagavinayagam – Hallie, it was wonderful to meet you too.
Paul Daley for referencing the Digital HR Leaders podcast episode with Diane Gherson and Lynda Gratton in his post on how HR strategy needs to support the independent / blended / contingent workforce of the future
Similarly thanks to Olimpiusz Papiez for his post sharing his takeaways from the podcast episode with Diane and Lynda
Thanks also to Jaqueline Oliveira-Cella for her post, are you ready for the shift, which was also inspired by the podcast episode with Diane and Lynda
Piyush Mathur for providing his takeaways on insight without outcome is overhead in relation to his speaking sessions at the Peer Meetings in New York and Vevey for member organisations of the Insight222 People Analytics Program
Esther Abraas for including my article, The role of Organisational Network Analysis in People Analytics, in her excellent list of ONA resources.
Wayne Tarken for his post on How AI can Help HR, which was informed by the digital HR Leaders podcast episode with Nickle Lamoreaux on how AI is transforming HR at IBM.
Thomas Kohler for including the podcast episode with Keith Bigelow in his weekly round-up of future of work resources.
The Talent Games for including me in their list of HR Leaders redefining the Future of Workin recognition of HR Professionals Day.
Finally, a huge thank you to the following people who shared the August edition of Data Driven HR Monthly and other content in the last few weeks. It's much appreciated: Craig Forman Zornitza Iankova, SPHR Brandon Merritt Johnson Hrvoje Bulat Rebecca Hone Michael Arena Emma Mercer (Assoc CIPD, MLPI) Dr. Max Muge Bakkaloglu Priyanka Mehrotra Kerry Ghize Deviprasad Panda Richard Stein Stela Lupushor David Balls (FCIPD) Emily Ricci Danielle Farrell Dan George Patrick Coolen Catriona Lindsay Katrina A. Stevens, CHRE Kouros Behzad Kathleen Kruse Martha Curioni Adam McKinnon, PhD. Greg Newman Dr Philip Gibbs Sally Smith Hanadi El Sayyed David van Lochem Amardeep Singh, MBA Rick Rome Ken Oehler Vaibhav Deshmukh María Victoria Sáinz Roshaunda Green, MBA, CDSP, Phenom Certified Recruiter Aysun Öz Serena H. Huang, Ph.D. Nelson Spencer Tristan Hack Penny Newman Vivek Ojha Aravind Warrier Francisca Solano Beneitez Kalifa Oliver, Ph.D. Stephanie Murphy, Ph.D. John Healy Greg Pryor Lewis Garrad Jose Luis Chavez Vasquez Audrey Burke-McCarthy, MBA, Adv Dip Coaching, MII Grad Aurélie Crégut Max Blumberg (JA) ?? Vanessa Monsequeira Shujaat Ahmad Jeff Wellstead Jackson Roatch Maria Alice Jovinski Rafael Uribe Truong Hong Ha (Mr Niem Tin) Dan Weiss David Hodges Toby Culshaw David McLean Dr. Peter Schulz-Rittich Timo Tischer Stephanie Denino Jacqui Brassey, PhD, MA, MAfN ?️ (née Schouten) Gianni Giacomelli Terri Horton, EdD, MBA, MA, SHRM-CP, PHR Placid Jover Andrews Cobbinah, MLPI, ACIHRM Emily Killham Al Adamsen Tim Frazier Tim Peffers Julie Asselin Chandresh Natu Anabel Fall Ralf Buechsenschuss Anna A. Tavis, PhD Marcela Niemeyer Meta McKinney, MLIS Aritra Majumdar Gustavo Araujo Vijaya Das Kirsten Edwards Graham Tollit Joy Kolb Remco van Es Ahmed Salah ?? Sebastian Knepper Melissa Beasley Bo Vialle-Derksen Malgorzata Langlois Abhilash Bodanapu Isabel Naidoo Marino Mugayar-Baldocchi Nirit Peled-Muntz Ron Ben Oz Littal Shemer Haim (ליטל שמר חיים) Joseph Frank, PhD CCP GWCCM Bob Pulver Jaejin Lee Kristhy Bartels Geetanjali Gamel Chris Hare Alicia Roach Caitie Jacobson John Gunawan Doug Shagam Davey Nickels Paul Davies Tatu Westling Mia Norgren Nick Lynn Alexandra Nawrat Gal Mozes, PhD Dave Millner Prachi Agasti Jacob Nielsen Matt Elk Chris Long Kimberly Rose Ilse Venter Søren Kold Irada Sadykhova Dave Fineman Agnes Garaba Sebastián Mestre Victoria Holdsworth Elpida Ormanidou Megan Buttita, MLIS Danielle Bushen Robert Bolton Stephen Hickey Dolapo (Dolly) Oyenuga Higor Gomes Irene Wong Ludek Stehlik, Ph.D. Sonia Mooney Mariami Lolashvili Joonghak Lee Raja Sengupta Swechha Mohapatra (IHRP-SP, SHRM-SCP, CIPD) Alfonso Bustos, Ph.D. Marcela Mury Olivier Bougarel Martijn Wiertz Veronika Birkheim
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
David Green ?? is a globally respected author, speaker, conference chair, and executive consultant on people analytics, data-driven HR and the future of work. As Managing Partner and Executive Director at Insight222, he has overall responsibility for the delivery of the Insight222 People Analytics Program, which supports the advancement of people analytics in over 90 global organisations. Prior to co-founding Insight222, David accumulated over 20 years experience in the human resources and people analytics fields, including as Global Director of People Analytics Solutions at IBM. As such, David has extensive experience in helping organisations increase value, impact and focus from the wise and ethical use of people analytics. David also hosts the Digital HR Leaders Podcast and is an instructor for Insight222's myHRfuture Academy. His book, co-authored with Jonathan Ferrar, Excellence in People Analytics: How to use Workforce Data to Create Business Value was published in the summer of 2021.
MEET ME AT THESE EVENTS
I'll be speaking about people analytics, the future of work, and data driven HR at a number of upcoming events in 2024:
September 30 - New York Strategic HR Analytics MeetUp - Workestration: Working across human, digital and physical workplace dimensi (New York)
October 2-3 - People Analytics World (New York)
October 16-17 - UNLEASH World (Paris)
October 22-23 - Insight222 North American Peer Meeting (hosted by Workday in Pleasanton, CA) - exclusively for member organisations of the Insight222 People Analytics Program
November 12-14 - Workday Rising EMEA (London)
November 19-20 - Insight222 European Peer Meeting (hosted by Merck in Darmstadt, Germany) - exclusively for member organisations of the Insight222 People Analytics Program
More events will be added as they are confirmed.
Remote Work
2024年09月29日
Remote Work
Josh Bersin: With Thoughtful Design And Culture, Dropbox Proves Remote Work Is A WinnerDropbox, a company with a $7 billion market cap and over $2.5 billion in revenue, has adopted a "Virtual First" strategy in response to the pandemic, transforming its work model from lavish San Francisco offices to a remote-first approach. This shift was led by CEO Drew Houston and Chief People Officer Melanie Rosenwasser, moving away from an office-centric culture to enhance productivity and teamwork through remote work. The strategy includes home office stipends, Dropbox Studios for face-to-face interactions, and innovative meeting management services. Despite initial challenges, this approach has led to high employee satisfaction and a strong talent strategy, allowing Dropbox to thrive in a competitive tech landscape.
One of the most interesting tech companies we’ve studied is Dropbox, a $7 billion market cap rocket ship generating more than $2.5 billion in revenue. This kind of company, which sells a platform that competes with Microsoft, Google, and other major players, lives in a world of brutal competition: competition for product leadership, sales deals, and talent. And today, as AI engineers are in short supply, Dropbox has to attract the best and brightest to continue its growth.
In its early days, Dropbox was a typical San Francisco-based tech company with gourmet food, gorgeous offices, and a culture of lavish benefits. In the pre-pandemic 2010s this was the rage, and Dropbox became a hot place to work.
The pandemic upset that applecart. Not only did “work at home” obsolete the company’s real estate and gourmet investments, it forced the company to rethink its culture. The Chief People Officer, Melanie Rosenwasser, told me that the first few months of the pandemic were traumatic. Employees were upset by working at home and weren’t sure what the company stood for. She and Drew Houston, the CEO, had to rethink the whole operating model.
As Melanie described it to me, they took a risky, irreversible move. They decided to totally shift their operating model from that of “San Francisco gourmet offices” to “energized, empowered, team-based, remote work.” Not an easy decision.
Note that just this week Eric Schmidt, the ex-CEO and board member at Google, blamed Sundar Pichai for “remote work laziness” as cause for Google’s “falling behind in AI.” So the debate about remote work continues, and some of the most successful leaders still haven’t figured it out.
Well Drew, Melanie, and the Dropbox team placed a bet. Knowing that the pandemic had interrupted their campus investments, they dramatically shifted to a “Virtual First” strategy. And they told the company “we are moving away from an office-centric culture” and going to a model of remote-first work. And this included converting offices to Dropbox Studios as well as a carefully architected approach to teamwork, collaboration, and periodic face-to-face activity.
Rather than ask people to “come in 3 days a week” (this kind of policy bugs people because they drag themselves into the office just to zoom with others at home), they designed one of the most sophisticated approaches I’ve seen. Employees receive a generous stipend for home office improvements and the company now offers a series of programs, services, and tools to make team and personal productivity thrive.
While it seemed risky it worked exceedingly well. By holistically thinking about culture, management, teamwork, and productivity, the company developed a set of innovations that empower people to work at their best, meet with their teams at least one week per quarter, and come together when and where it makes sense. And this model, which looks like an HR innovation, became a business innovation that helps the company thrive.
While Dropbox lost a significant number of employees at first, now the company has one of the highest Glassdoor ratings in its industry (4.3, 85% recommend CEO, higher than Google). Dropbox wins awards for employment brand. And not only does Virtual First create productive operations, it helps the company build “tools for the new world of work,” which is where every company is going.
Work at home is complicated. In between dogs, kids, gardeners and delivery people we’re futzing with MS Teams, Zoom, Webex, Google Docs, and dozens of other tools. Most of them work well but they’re each different and inconsistent. Dropbox, as a “system designed for remote work” simplifies this enormously. Virtual First helps Dropbox test its products on itself.
Why has Virtual First succeeded? As Melanie and the team explains, the shift turbo-charged its talent strategy. Now Dropbox can hire people from any geography in the world (reducing labor cost) and they look for high-energy, passionate, high-performers (not employees who like the offices). Teamwork is stronger than ever.
I know, from our company, that this works well. We have 40+ people in our organization and we rely on frequent face-to-face meetings, an open culture, and tremendous amounts of training and communication to grow. Back when I ran our company in an office we hardly talked with each other unless we had a meeting. Things are much more collaborative and productive now.
Dropbox has proven this at scale.
You can read about Virtual First on the Dropbox website, but one of the innovations I want to point out is the company’s “concierge service” for meetings. (The Offsite Planning Team.)
When you as a leader want to have a meeting, this team helps you decide your objectives, reviews the outcomes you want to achieve, and then puts together a detailed plan (location, logistics, agenda, tools) to help you make it work. This removes enormous amounts of wasted time from managers and helps the company operate productively.
I cannot tell you how much time I’ve wasted “managing offsite meetings.” To have a seasoned, professional group that helps with this entire strategy in process is a godsend. For Dropbox, this team now knows precisely how the teams work and can continuously improve its consulting services to make sure face-to-face meetings are impactful. A “new manager introduction” meeting, for example, is different from a “get product ready for launch meeting” as you can imagine.
How does this apply to your company? Regardless of industry, I guarantee you have remote work teams. Many companies have front line workers (healthcare, retail, manufacturing, transportation) who have to locate with customers. But think about finance teams, IT teams, scientific teams, and HR. We all need productive remote work practices, and Dropbox has proven that a strategic focus on this area will pay off.
Melanie and I will be doing a webcast in the near future and she is joining us at our Irresistible 2025 Conference as well. Dropbox has taken the lead in this new world, and they want to share their learnings with all of us.
How Generative AI Adds Value to the Future of Work
这篇Upwork的文章深入探讨了生成式人工智能(AI)在重新塑造工作价值方面的变革力量,强调了自动化和创新不仅改变了工作岗位,还在各个行业提高了生产力和创造力。文章着重讨论了对劳动力市场的细微影响,强调了技能发展和道德考虑的重要性,并对人工智能与人类合作的未来提供了前瞻性的视角。
Authors: Dr. Ted Liu, Carina Deng, Dr. Kelly Monahan
Generative AI’s impact on work: lessons from previous technology advancements
In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the initial impact of generative AI (artificial intelligence) on the Upwork marketplace for independent talent. Evidence from previous technological innovations suggests that AI will have a dual impact: (1) the displacement effect, where job or task loss is initially more noticeable as technologies automate tasks, and (2) the reinstatement effect, where new jobs and tasks increase earnings over time as a result of the new technology. Take for example the entry of robotics within the manufacturing industry. When robotic arms were installed along assembly lines, they displaced some of the tasks that humans used to do. This was pronounced in tasks that were routine and easy to automate. However, new tasks were then needed with the introduction of robotics, such as programming the robots, analyzing data, building predictive models, and maintaining the physical robots. The effects of new technologies often counterbalance each other over time, giving way to many new jobs and tasks that weren’t possible or needed before. The manufacturing industry is now projected to have more jobs available as technologies continue to advance, including Internet of Things (IoT), augmented reality, and AI, which transform the way work is completed. The issue now at hand is ensuring enough skilled workers are able to work alongside these new technologies.
While this dynamic of displacement and reinstatement generally takes years to materialize, as noted above in the manufacturing example, the effects of generative AI may be taking place already on Upwork. For the platform as a whole, we observe that generative AI has increased the total number of job posts and the average spend per new contract created. In terms of work categories, generative AI has reduced demand in writing and translation, particularly in low-value work, while enhancing earnings in high-value work across all groups. In particular, work that relies on this new technology like Data Science and Analytics are reaping the benefits. The report highlights the importance of task complexity and the skill-biased nature of AI's impact. Skills-biased technology change is to be expected as the introduction of new technologies generally favors highly skilled workers. We observe this on our platform as high-skill freelancers in high-value work are benefiting more, while those in low-value work face challenges, underscoring the need for skilling and educational programs to empower freelancers to adapt and transition in this evolving work landscape.
Understanding the lifecycle of work on Upwork and the impact of gen AI
Generative AI has a growing presence in how people do their work, especially since the public release of ChatGPT in 2022. While there’s been extensive discussion about the challenges and opportunities of generative AI, there is limited evidence of such impact based on transaction data in the broader labor market. In this study, we use Upwork’s platform data to estimate the short-term effects of generative AI on freelance outcomes specifically. The advantage of the Upwork platform is that it is in itself a complete marketplace for independent talent, as we observe the full life cycle of work: job posts, matching, work execution, performance reviews, and payment. Few other instances exist where a closed-system work market can be studied and observed. Thus, the results of this study offer insights into not only the online freelance market, but also the broader labor market.
How technological progress disrupts the labor market is not a new topic. Acemoglu and Restrepo (2019) argue that earning gain arises from new tasks created by technological progress, which they term the “reinstatement effect,” even if the automation of certain tasks may have a displacement effect in the labor market initially. What this means is that there may be a dynamic effect going on: the displacement effect (e.g., work loss) may be more noticeable in the beginning of a new technology entry, but as new jobs and tasks are being created, the reinstatement effect (e.g., rates increase, new work) will begin to prevail. In the broader labor market, such dynamics will likely take years to materialize. But in a liquid and active independent work marketplace like Upwork, it’s possible that we’re already observing this transition happening.
Existing studies such as this provides a useful conceptual framework to think about the potential impact of generative AI. It’s likely that in the short term, the replacement of generative AI will continue to be more visible, not just at Upwork, but also in the broader labor market. Over time and across work categories, however, generative AI will likely spur new tasks and jobs, leading to the reinstatement effect becoming stronger and increasing rates for those occupations with new tasks and a higher degree of task complexity. We’ve already seen evidence of new demand as a result of gen AI on our Upwork platform, with brand new skill categories like AI content creator and prompt engineer emerging in late 2022 and early 2023. We test this hypothesis of both work displacement and reinstatement, and provide insights into how generative AI affects work outcomes.
Impact of generative AI on work
To understand the short-term impact of generative AI on the Upwork freelance market, we capitalize on a natural experiment arising from the public release of ChatGPT in November 2022. Because this release was largely an unanticipated event to the general public, we’re able to estimate the causal impact of generative AI. The essential idea behind this natural experiment is that we want to compare the work groups affected by AI with the counterfactual in which they are not. To implement this, we use a statistical and machine-learning method called synthetic control. Synthetic control allows us to see the impact that an intervention, in this case, the introduction of gen AI, has on a group over time by comparing it to a group with similar characteristics not exposed to the intervention. The advantage of this approach is that it allows us to construct reasonably credible comparison groups and observe the effect over time.
The units of analysis we use are work groups on the Upwork platform; we analyze variables such as contract number and freelancer earnings. Instead of narrowly focusing on a single category like writing, we extend the analysis to all the major work groups on Upwork. Moreover, we conduct additional analysis of the more granular clusters within each major group. The synthetic control method allows for flexibility in constructing counterfactuals at different levels of granularity. The advantage of our comprehensive approach is that we offer a balanced view of the impact of generative AI across the freelance market.
Generative AI’s short-term impact on job posts and freelancer earnings
Looking at the platform as a whole, we observe that generative AI has increased the total number of job posts by 2.4%, indicating the overall increased demand from clients. Moreover, as shown in Figure 1, for every new job contract, there is an increase of 1.3% in terms of freelancer earnings per contract, suggesting a higher value of contracts.
Figure 1 Effect of Generative AI on Freelancer Earning per Contract
The Upwork platform has three broad sectors: 1. Technological and digital solutions (tech solutions); 2. Creative & outreach; 3. Business operations and consulting. We have observed both positive and negative effects within each of the sectors, but two patterns are worth noting:
The reinstatement effect of generative AI seems to be driving growth in freelance earnings in sectors related to tech solutions and business operations. In contrast, within the creative sector, while sales and marketing earnings have grown because of AI, categories such as writing and translation seem disproportionately affected more by the replacement effect. This is to be expected due to the nature of tasks within these categories of work, where large language models are now able to efficiently process and generate text at scale.
Generative AI has propelled growth in high-value work across the sectors and may have depressed growth in low-value work. This supports a skills-biased technology change argument, which we’ve observed throughout modern work history.
More specifically and within tech solutions, data science & analytics is a clear winner, with over 8% of growth in freelance earnings attributed to generative AI. This makes sense as the reinstatement effect is at work; new work and tasks such as prompt engineering have been created and popularized because of generative AI. Simultaneously, while tools such as ChatGPT automate certain scripting tasks (therefore leading to a replacement effect), it mainly results in productivity enhancements for freelancers and potentially leads to them charging higher rates and enjoying higher overall earnings per task.
In terms of contracts related to business operations, we observe that accounting, administrative support, and legal services all experience gains in freelance earnings due to generative AI, ranging from 6% to 7%. In this sector, customer service is the only group that has experienced reduced earnings (-4%). The reduced earnings result for customer service contracts is an example of the aggregate earnings outcomes of AI, related to the study by Brynjolfsson et al (2023), who find that generative AI helps reduce case resolution time at service centers.
A potential outcome of this cut in resolution time is that service centers will need fewer workers, as more tasks can be completed by a person working alongside AI. At the same time, the reinstatement effect has not materialized yet because there are no new tasks being demanded in such settings. This may be an instance where work transformation has not yet been fully realized, with AI enabling faster work rather than reinventing a way of working that leads to new types of tasks. A contrasting case is the transformation that happened with bank tellers when ATMs were introduced. While the introduction of these new technologies resulted in predictions of obsolete roles in banks, something different happened over time. Banks were able to increase efficiency as a result of ATMs and were able to scale and open more branches than before, thereby creating more jobs. In addition, the transactional role of a bank teller became focused on greater interpersonal skills and customer relationship tasks.
When taken together, the overall gains in such business operations work on Upwork are an encouraging sign. These positions tend to require relatively intensive interpersonal communication, and it seems the short-term effects of generative AI have helped increase the value of these contracts, similar to what we saw in the banking industry when ATMs were introduced.
As of now, the replacement effect of AI seems more noticeable in creative and outreach work. The exception is sales and marketing contracts, which have experienced a 6.5% increase in freelance earnings. There is no significant impact yet observed on design. For writing and translation, however, generative AI seems to have reduced earnings by 8% and 10% respectively. However, as we will discover, task complexity has a moderating effect on this.
High-value work benefit from generative AI, upskilling needed for low-value work
Having discussed the overall impact of generative AI across categories, we now decompose the impact by values. The reason we’re looking at the dimension of work value is that there may be a positive correlation between contract value and skill complexity. Moreover, skill complexity may also be positively correlated with skill levels. Essentially, by evaluating the impact of AI by different contract values, we can get at the question of AI's impact by skill levels. This objective is further underscored by a discrepancy that sometimes exists in the broader labor markets – a skills gap between demand and supply. It simply takes time for upskilling to take place, so it’s typical for demand to exceed supply until a more balanced skilled labor market takes place. It is worth noting, however, freelancers on the Upwork platform seem more likely than non-freelancers to acquire new skills such as generative AI.
For simplicity, let’s assume that the value of contracts is a good proxy for the level of skill required to complete them. We’d then assume that high-skill freelancers typically do high-value work, and low-skill freelancers do low-value work. In other words, our goal is also to understand whether the impact of generative AI is skills-biased and follows a similar pattern from what we’ve seen in the past with new technology disruptions. Note that we’re focusing on the top and bottom tails of the distribution of contract values, because such groups (rather than median or mean) might be most susceptible to displacement and/or reinstatement effects, therefore of primary concern. We define high-value (HV) work as those with $1,000 or more earnings per contract. For the remaining contracts, we focus on a subset of work as low-value (LV) work ($251-500 earnings).
Figure 2 shows the impact of AI by work value, across groups on Upwork. As we discussed before, writing and translation work has experienced some reduction in earnings overall. However, if we look further into the effect of contract value, we see that the reduction is largely coming from the reduced earnings from low-value work. At the same time, for these two types, generative AI has induced substantial growth in high-value earnings – the effect for translation is as high as 7%. We believe the positive effect on translation high-value earning is driven by more posts and contracts created. In the tech solutions sector, the growth in HV earnings in data science and web development is also particularly noticeable, ranging from 6% to 9%. Within the business solutions sector, administrative support is the clear winner.
There are two takeaways from this analysis by work value. First, while we’re looking at a sample of all the contracts on the platform, it’s possible that the decline of LV work is more than made up for by the growth of HV work in the majority of the groups. In other words, except for select work groups, the equilibrium results for the Upwork freelance market overall seem to be net positive gains from generative AI. Second, if we assume that freelancers with high skills (or a high degree of skill complexity) tend to complete such HV work (and low-skill freelancers do LV work), we observe that the impact of generative AI may be biased against low-skill freelancers. This is an important result: In the current discussion of whether generative AI is skill-based, there exists limited evidence based on realized gains and actual work market transactions. We are one of the first to provide market-transaction-based evidence to illustrate this potentially skill-biased impact. Finally, additional internal Upwork analysis finds that independent talent engaged in AI-related work earn 40% more on the Upwork marketplace than their counterparts engaged in non-AI-related work. This suggests there may be additional overlap between high-skill work and AI-related work, which can further reinforce the earning potential of freelancers in this group.
Figure 2
Case study: 3D content work
To illustrate the impact of generative AI in more depth, we have conducted a case study of Engineering & Architecture work within the tech solutions sector. The reason is that we want to illustrate the potentially overlooked aspects of AI impact, compared with the examples of data science and writing contracts. This progress in generative AI has the potential to reshape work in traditional areas like design in manufacturing and architecture, which rely heavily on computer-aided design (CAD) objects, and newer sectors such as gaming and virtual reality, exemplified by NVIDIA's Omniverse.
Based on activities on the Upwork platform, we see that there is consistent growth of job posts and client spending in this category, with up to 12% of gross service value growth year over year in 2023 Q3, and over 11% in job posts during the same period. Moreover, applying the synthetic control method, we show a causal relationship between gen AI advancements and the growth in job posts and earnings per contract. More specifically, there is a significant increase in overall earnings because of AI, an average 11.5% increase. Additionally, as shown by Figure 3, the positive effect also applies to earning per contract. This indicates a positive impact on freelancer productivity and quality of work, due to the fact that we’re measuring the income for every unit of work produced. This suggests that gen AI is not just a facilitator of efficiency but also enhances the quality of output.
Figure 3 Effect of Generative AI on Freelancer Earning per Contract in EngineeringIn a traditional workflow to create 3D objects without generative AI, freelancers would spend extensive time and effort to design the topology, geometry, and textures of the objects. But with generative AI, they can do so through text prompts to train models and generate 3D content. For example, this blog by NVIDIA’s Omniverse team showcases how ChatGPT can interface with traditional 3D creation tools.
Thus, the positive trajectory of generative AI in 3D content generation we see is driven by several factors. AI significantly reduces job execution time, allowing for higher productivity. It facilitates the replication and scaling of 3D objects, leading to economies of scale. Moreover, freelancers can now concentrate more on the creative aspects of 3D content, as AI automates time-consuming and tedious tasks.
This shift has not led to a decrease in rates due to the replacement effect. In fact, this shift of workflow may create new tasks and work. We will likely see a new type of occupation in which technology and humanities disciplines converge. For instance, a freelancer trained in art history now has the tools to recreate a 3D rendering of Japan in the Edo period, without the need to conduct heavy coding. In other words, the reinstatement effect of AI will elevate the overall quality and value proposition of the work, and ultimately enable higher earning gains. This paradigm shift underscores generative AI's role in not just transforming work processes but also in creating new economic dynamics within the 3D content market. Fortunately, it seems many freelancers on Upwork are ready to reap the benefits: 3D-related skills, such as 3D modeling, rendering, and design, are listed among the top five skills of freelancer profiles as well as in job posts.
A dynamic interplay: task complexity, skills, and gen AI
Focusing on the Upwork marketplace for independent talent, we study the impact of generative AI by using the public release of ChatGPT as a natural experiment. The results suggest a dynamic interplay of replacement and reinstatement effects; we argue that this dynamic is influenced by task complexity, suggesting a skill-biased impact of gen AI. Analysis across Upwork's work sectors shows varied effects: growth in freelance earnings in tech solutions and business operations, but a mixed impact in the creative sector. Specifically, high-value work in data science and business operations see significant earnings growth, while creative contracts like writing and translation experience a decrease in earnings, particularly in lower-value tasks. Using the case study of 3D content creation, we show that generative AI can significantly enhance productivity and quality of work, leading to economic gains and a shift toward higher-value tasks, despite initial concerns of displacement.
Acemoglu and Restrepo (2019) argue that the slowdown of earning growth in the United States the past three decades can partly be explained by new technologies’ replacement effect overpowering the reinstatement effect. But with generative AI, we’re at a point of completely redefining what human tasks mean, and there may be ample opportunities to create new tasks and work. It's evident that while high-value types of work are being created, freelancers engaged in low-value tasks may face negative impact, possibly due to a lack of skills needed to capitalize on AI benefits. This situation underscores the necessity of supporting freelancers not only in elevating their marketability within their current domains but also in transitioning to other work categories.
To ensure as many people as possible benefit, there’s an imperative need to provide educational resources for them to gain the technical skills, and more importantly skills of adaptability to reinvent their work. This helps minimize the chance of missed opportunities by limiting skills mismatch between talent and new demands created by new technologies. Upwork has played a significant role here by linking freelancers to resources such as Upwork Academy’s AI Education Library and Education Marketplace, thereby equipping them with the necessary tools and knowledge to adapt and thrive in an AI-present job market. This approach can help bridge the gap between low- and high-value work opportunities, ensuring a more equitable distribution of the advantages brought about by generative AI.
Methodology
To estimate the causal impact of generative AI, we take a synthetic control approach in the spirit of Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller (2010). The synthetic control method allows us to construct a weighted combination of comparison units from available data to create a counterfactual scenario, simulating what would have happened in the absence of the intervention. We use this quasi-experimental method due to the infeasibility of conducting a controlled large-scale experiment. Additionally, we use Lasso regularization to credibly construct the donor pool that serves the basis of the counterfactuals and minimize the chance of overfitting the data.
Moreover, we supplement the analysis by scoring whether a sub-occupation is impacted or unaffected by generative AI. The scoring utilizes specific criteria: 1. Whether a certain share of job posts are tagged as AI contracts by the Upwork platform; 2. AI occupational exposure score, based on a study by Felten, Raj, and Seamans (2023), to tag these sub-occupations. We also use data smoothing techniques through three-month moving averages. We analyzed data collected on our platform from 2021 through Q3 2023. We specifically look at freelancer data across all 12 work categories on the platform for high-value contracts, defined as those with a contract of at least $1,000, and low-value contracts, consisting of those between $251 and under $500.
The main advantage of our approach is that it is a robust yet flexible way to identify the causal effects on not only the Upwork freelance market but also specific work categories. Additionally, we control for macroeconomic or aggregate shocks such as U.S. monetary policy in the pre-treatment period. However, we acknowledge the potential biases in identifying which sub-occupations are influenced by generative AI and the effects of external factors in the post-treatment period.
About the Upwork Research Institute
The Upwork Research Institute is committed to studying the fundamental shifts in the workforce and providing business leaders with the tools and insights they need to navigate the here and now while preparing their organization for the future. Using our proprietary platform data, global survey research, partnerships, and academic collaborations, we produce evidence-based insights to create the blueprint for the new way of work.
About Ted Liu
Dr. Ted Liu is Research Manager at Upwork, where he focuses on how work and skills evolve in relation to technological progress such as artificial intelligence. He received his PhD in economics from the University of California, Santa Cruz.
About Carina Deng
Carian Deng is the Lead Analyst in Strategic Analytics at Upwork, where she specializes in uncovering data insights through advanced statistical methodologies. She holds a Master's degree in Data Science from George Washington University.
About Kelly Monahan
Dr. Kelly Monahan is Managing Director of the Upwork Research Institute, leading our future of work research program. Her research has been recognized and published in both applied and academic journals, including MIT Sloan Management Review and the Journal of Strategic Management.
改善居家办公问责制的7个方法受漫长的疫情影响以及网络通讯日益方便迅捷,居家办公了越来越合理化。居家办公成为职场大势,而管理者通常认为居家办公会严重影响员工工作效率。事实上,与其一味心里过滤不如正视其好处,适应混合式和多元化工作。
想了解居家办公问责制,就要知道是居家办公问责制的什么,其好处是什么,以及七个改善团队或企业问责制的方法。
居家办公(WFH)是许多美国专业人士的新型常态,无论是全职的远程工作还是混合式工作。然而,这种工作制度给企业和员工带来许多利益的同时也带来了特别的挑战——尤其是问责制的问题。没有了传统的办公环境,办公效率以及办公可靠度就需要刻意努力和有效的策略来维持。
在这篇文章中,我们将探讨如何改善居家办公的问责制,让个人和团队在这种新的工作环境下蓬勃发展。
What is work-from-home accountability?
什么是居家办公问责制?
Accountability is taking ownership of one’s actions, decisions and outcomes in the remote work context. This means being responsible for meeting deadlines, maintaining quality levels and honoring commitments made to colleagues and stakeholders.
When working from home, it’s important to establish clear expectations and guidelines for accountability. This includes:
Defining specific goals and objectives
Setting realistic deadlines
Providing regular feedback
Giving support
Accountability in remote work also requires effective communication. Inform all team members about progress, challenges and any changes that may affect the workflow. This promotes transparency and allows for better collaboration and problem-solving among teams.
Benefits of work-from-home accountability
居家办公问责制的好处
To enhance accountability in remote work, it’s important to recognize its significance. Some of the benefits of focusing on accountability in remote workers include:
Improved responsibility: When people hold themselves accountable for their work, they’re more likely to step up and take responsibility for the outcome of their tasks. This also gives employees a sense of accomplishment and improves job satisfaction.
More transparency: When you set clear expectations for remote teams, it’s easier for them to be clear about what they’re working on and when they may need help. This also increases trust among team members.
Improved collaboration: Remote team accountability helps employees collaborate by outlining who’s responsible for what, so they know who to communicate with to ensure work is completed.
Fewer missed deadlines: When working remotely, it’s easy to let deadlines slide past without colleagues reminding you when work is due. Improving accountability among WFH team members helps reduce the number of missed deadlines and streamlines workflows.
Better work-life balance: Accountability also improves work-life balance for employees by making sure no team members have to pick up the slack for others.
7 ways to improve work-from-home accountability
改善居家办公问责制的7个方法
Leaders and managers can establish and improve WFH accountability through a few methods. Every organization is different, so you’ll need to find what works best for your situation.
1. Set a clear WFH policy
建立明确的WFH政策
The first step in establishing WFH accountability is to have a clear policy in place. It’s a good idea to ensure team members have buy-in so they don’t feel that they can’t follow the rules. Some items your policy should cover should include expected working hours, hybrid schedules and technology usage policies. Some virtual teams may work on their own schedules and timelines while others will need to have set hours in place to ensure collaboration. Many virtual teams will need more structure than others. It’s important your policy encompasses the best system for your entire organization. Work with your managers and team leaders to find out what policies will work best for everyone.
2. Clarify responsibilities
明确职责
If employees know what’s expected of them, they’ll be more likely to hold themselves accountable to those expectations. Make sure you set clear goals, deadlines and benchmarks so employees can hold themselves to them. Workers need to know what they’re responsible for and who to ask if a project is running late or they need more help. Key performance indicators (KPIs) help teams measure the quality and efficiency of their work to make changes where needed. This is particularly important in a remote work environment where team members don’t have regular physical interactions with each other.
3. Provide the right tools
提供合适的工具
Remote employees may need additional technology and tools to communicate, collaborate and complete tasks. Make sure you provide your teams with the right technology to help them meet goals and stay on track. Virtual teams will need the right communication tool for team meetings, plus project management and collaboration tools to keep each other accountable in real time. Time management and tracking tools help teams determine how to assign project deadlines and prioritize as well. Cloud-based systems help employees work from anywhere and at any time, helping them complete projects when working from home or traveling. Leadership also needs specialized software like ActivTrak to maintain visibility and manage hybrid and remote workforces.
4. Encourage clear communication
鼓励清晰的交流
The best-performing virtual teams are those who can communicate regularly and clearly about their work. Many of the tools you provide your team members will help them communicate about work status, bottlenecks and processes. However, you should also encourage communication among teams through other means, such as weekly newsletters and quarterly all-staff meetings. Just make sure that you’re not scheduling unnecessary meetings for your team’s needs.
5. Give regular check-ins
日常打卡
Beyond clear communication about the team or organization as a whole, structured check-ins for individual employees helps ensure work-from-home policies are working for each person. Give employees a chance to voice their concerns with existing policies or let their managers know where they may be struggling. This also provides an opportunity for managers to help employees see where they’re hitting goals or where they may need to work harder. WFH environments may change over time as your team members and their needs change, so flexibility and regular feedback are key.
6. Measure productivity
衡量工作效率
Remote employee management requires understanding how your teams work best and what blockers may keep them from productivity. One way to make sure you’re setting realistic goals and that team members are accountable for their work when they work from home is to monitor productivity. There are many benefits to using WFH productivity tracking software like ActivTrak, including helping team members with time management, task management and accountability. It also gives your leaders insight to make decisions driven by data rather than guesswork, so you can see where workflows and processes may need tweaking or what’s working for your remote teams. You can also see if team members may be working too much or too little and redistribute the workload as needed.
7. Reward employees for achievements
员工成就奖励
Create a culture of engagement by rewarding employees for being accountable and meeting (or exceeding) expectations. Bonuses, extra paid time off or gifts can be special rewards, but even publicly praising employees for their contributions can go a long way toward improving accountability in your team. Other rewards can include new opportunities to further their careers or take on new challenges. Different teams and employees will have different needs for feeling valued and rewarded, so let your managers find the best way to let employees know they’re appreciated.
Use ActivTrak to improve work-from-home accountability
If you’re ready to take the next step to enhance work-from-home accountability for your team, ActivTrak offers a comprehensive workforce analytics platform customizable to your needs. Get insights to assess and improve employee productivity and well-being and gain visibility into how work gets done within your company. Use data to inform key decisions and optimize outcomes for your remote or hybrid teams. To see how ActivTrak can empower your team, contact our sales team for a free demo.
SOURCE ActivTrak
Remote Work
2024年01月22日
Remote Work
Ceipal Further Increases Recruiter Productivity With New WhatsApp IntegrationThe integration of WhatsApp into the Ceipal platform is a positive development for recruiter productivity. WhatsApp, a popular messaging application, is widely used by individuals and businesses worldwide. By incorporating this widely-used communication channel into Ceipal, the platform can now offer recruiters a more seamless and efficient way to engage with candidates.
Users Can Strengthen Candidate Relationships, Schedule Interviews, and Auto-Source Candidates Directly From the Ceipal ATS
ROCHESTER, N.Y.,OCT. 11,2023 Ceipal, the industry-leading, AI-powered total talent acquisition and automation platform, is further increasing recruiter productivity through its new integration with WhatsApp—a free, cross-platform messaging service—so they can deepen their engagement with candidates in real-time. Ceipal applicant tracking system (ATS) users can now connect with candidates directly through WhatsApp conversations that strengthen relationships, improve efficiency, and attract talent faster.
Ceipal users can configure WhatsApp to contact candidates and automatically schedule interviews with them directly through the ATS, allowing candidates to accept, reschedule, or reject calendar invites directly from WhatsApp. The integration also enables users to auto-source candidates with Ceipal’s industry-leading artificial intelligence technology, which connects with potential candidates by sharing job information via email and WhatsApp messages to engage top talent from internal databases.
“In order to create remarkable candidate experiences, recruiters and staffing professionals must be able to immediately reach and nurture top talent before the competition,” said Ceipal Founder and CEO Sameer Penakalapati. “By interacting with candidates via instant messaging tools, such as WhatsApp, they can further build out their talent pools and personalize their communication with them. Ceipal’s WhatsApp integration is another solution for recruiters and staffing professionals to streamline their workflows and boost their productivity so they can strengthen their candidate relationships.”
Additionally, recruiters and staffing professionals can use WhatsApp to share GDPR consent requests. Candidates can easily accept or decline requests directly through WhatsApp, providing a more efficient way to handle these responses.
Ceipal’s WhatsApp integration is part of its suite of productivity applications integrations, which enable users to leverage their favorite software more effectively. These integrations help recruiters and staffing professionals save valuable time, automate repetitive processes, and empower them to grow their businesses.
For more information about Ceipal’s WhatsApp integration, which is now available for free, please visit the WhatsApp integration page.
About Ceipal
Ceipal is a scalable, AI-driven, total talent acquisition platform that provides visibility across all channels and sources while organizing your data into a single talent ecosystem. With the power of advanced automation and artificial intelligence, Ceipal’s industry-leading ATS and CRM capabilities empower you to efficiently identify, assess, engage, hire, and onboard the best talent. Ceipal Procurewise, our native and fully integrated VMS platform, provides unmatched capabilities for your HR, corporate procurement teams, and MSPs to source, manage, and engage contingent staffing, direct sourcing, and statement of work vendors and workers. Ceipal enables you to integrate, manage, and improve the entire talent acquisition lifecycle, so you can simplify, scale, and transform any high-growth business into a diverse talent powerhouse. Welcome to the new frontier of talent acquisition.
SOURCE Ceipal