• rewards
    从 Mercer 营收62亿美元的财报反推 2026 年 HR 预算走向:钱会先加在哪?又会先砍哪? 刚拆完 Mercer 2025 财报,数据非常有代表性:营收 61.9 亿美元、内生增长 4%,增长几乎全部来自福利和薪酬板块,组织发展反而负增长。基本等于提前剧透了 2026 年 HR 预算方向:控成本、保合规、重回报。做北美 HR 的一定要看看,很有启发。 在判断 2026 年 HR 预算趋势时,宏观判断、个人经验都不如一份“真实发生的财报”更有说服力。2025 年,Mercer 交出了一份非常典型、也非常值得 HR 深度解读的成绩单。它并不激进,却极其稳定;它没有讲太多愿景,却清楚地反映了企业 HR 真正愿意为哪些事情持续付费。 这份财报,几乎可以被视为 “北美企业 HR 预算结构的现实映射”。 一、Mercer 在 Marsh 体系中的位置,决定了它的风向意义 在 Marsh & McLennan 2025 年 约 270 亿美元的集团营收中,Mercer 全年营收 61.9 亿美元,占比约 23%,是 Consulting 板块中体量最大、现金流最稳定的业务。 如果说 Marsh Risk 代表的是企业的“外部风险管理”,那么 Mercer 则对应着企业的“内部人力与成本治理”。也正因为如此,Mercer 的营收变化,往往比单一 HRTech 公司更能反映 HR 支出的真实优先级。 二、先看整体:Mercer 的增长质量,而不是单纯增长数字 2025 年全年,Mercer 的关键指标是: ·全年营收:61.9 亿美元 ·GAAP 同比增长:8% ·内生增长(Underlying Revenue Growth):4% 第四季度(Q4 2025): ·单季营收:16.17 亿美元 ·GAAP 同比增长:9% ·内生增长:4% 对 HR 而言,最重要的不是“8% 或 9%”,而是 4% 的内生增长。 2025 年是一个全球 HR 咨询需求明显承压的年份。招聘、组织转型、文化项目普遍放缓。在这样的背景下,4% 的内生增长意味着:这不是靠并购或一次性项目拉动,而是 客户真实续约、持续加预算的结果。 三、拆 Mercer 三条业务线,看 HR 钱真正花在哪里 Mercer 在财报中披露了三大核心业务线:Wealth、Health、Career。虽然不公布各线绝对营收,但增长结构已经足够清晰。 1. Wealth:退休金、薪酬与长期激励,依然是 HR 的“刚性支出” Q4 2025 内生增长:+5% 全年内生增长:+4% 这一条线的稳定增长,反映的是几个现实问题: 北美企业正在同时面对薪酬透明、合规审查、退休金压力以及并购后激励整合的复杂挑战。薪酬与长期激励,已经不仅是“吸引人才”的工具,而是 财务、法律与治理问题的交汇点。 对 HR 来说,这类支出很难被简单砍掉,只能被要求“做得更精细、更可解释”。 2. Health:增长最快,且带有明显 CFO 逻辑 Q4 2025 内生增长:+6% 全年内生增长:+6%(三条线中最高) 这是 Mercer 2025 年最强的一条线,也是一条 典型的“非 HR 叙事型增长”。 推动 Health 增长的,不是员工体验口号,而是三个硬现实: 医疗成本持续上涨 Employer-sponsored benefits 成本失控 CFO 要求 HR 对福利支出承担解释责任 在很多北美企业中,Health 已经从“福利设计”升级为 成本控制 + 风险管理 + 数据决策 的综合议题。 3. Career:连续承压,释放出非常明确的信号 Q4 2025 内生增长:-2% 全年内生增长:-2% Career 覆盖组织发展、领导力、文化、变革管理等传统 HR 咨询领域。 负增长并不意味着这些事情不重要,而是说明它们具备三个特征: 可延后 可缩规模 可阶段性不上 在预算紧张环境下,这类项目往往最先被推迟。 四、从 Mercer 财报,反推 2026 年 HR 预算的真实优先级 基于上述结构,2026 年 HR 预算的走向其实已经非常清楚。 2026 年,最先加钱的方向 第一优先级,是 Health & Benefits 相关投入。凡是能帮助企业解释、控制、重构福利成本的方案,都会优先获得预算支持。 第二优先级,是 Compensation、Rewards、Retirement。薪酬透明、激励治理、长期激励合规,已经成为 HR 不可回避的责任区。 第三类,是与 钱、风险、合规强相关的 HRTech 与咨询能力,而不是“概念型工具”。 2026 年,最先被砍或延后的方向 首当其冲的,仍然是 大型 OD、文化与变革项目。不是因为它们无价值,而是因为在 CFO 视角下,它们 ROI 难以量化、周期过长。 同样会被谨慎对待的,还有纯“愿景型”“概念型”的 HR 项目,只讲意义、不讲结果。 五、给北美华人 HR 的一句结论 Mercer 的 2025 年财报,其实在用最直接的方式告诉我们一件事: HR 正在从“People & Culture 的叙事中心”,回到“People Risk 与 Cost Control 的执行中心”。 2026 年,谁能帮助企业 管住钱、管住风险、守住合规,谁就能拿到预算;而只停留在理念与愿景层面的 HR 工作,将持续承压。 这不是悲观,而是现实。也是北美华人 HR 在未来几年中,最需要正面面对的角色转型方向。
    rewards
    2026年01月29日
  • rewards
    超级员工的崛起 -The Rise of the Superworker: Delivering On The Promise Of AI 《超级员工的崛起》研究报告揭示了AI如何深刻改变工作场所与工作方式。随着AI技术融入工作流程,传统工作模型被重新定义,AI正助力“超级员工”以创新的方式提升生产力和创造力。 报告指出,企业若想在AI时代中保持竞争力,必须重新设计工作与组织模式。首先,需要通过AI实现任务自动化并提高工作效率;其次,推动工作流程的整合,利用智能代理提升整体生产力;最后,培养员工适应变化的能力,推动动态化的工作环境。 AI并不是简单地取代工作,而是通过赋能实现员工能力的跃升。例如,一些企业利用AI快速生成培训计划,将原本需要数月的工作缩短为数天。报告也强调,随着AI成为“同事”,全新岗位将随之出现,如知识库维护员、AI数据隐私与伦理管理者等。 为了迎接这一变革,报告提出了五大关键战略:重新设计工作与组织模式,构建动态人才模型,调整薪酬与绩效体系,加强以人为本的领导力,以及加速系统性HR®的转型。只有将技术与人的因素完美结合,企业才能成功实现AI转型。 报告强调,AI的核心并非技术,而是通过创新推动人与组织的共同成长。1月28日的发布会将深入剖析这些趋势与战略。 We’re excited to launch our groundbreaking research “The Rise of the Superworker,” a deep dive into the impact of AI on the future of work. As our hallmark research for the year, it defines the roadmap for leadership, technology, and HR. (Register for the launch webinar on January 28.) The Workforce and Workplace Environment We are entering a year of political change, economic disruption, and changing labor markets. As I discussed recently (The Tumultuous Year Ahead), the world is experiencing talent shortages in front-line and blue collar work (US unemployment remains at 4.1%) while white-collar employment is softening. CEOs are investing in AI in a quest for productivity and workers are asking to be retrained. And many core values (diversity and inclusion, pay equity, remote work) remain challenging. Companies believe that AI will transform their business, so investment in technology is exploding. Yet as history tells us, this “trillian dollar AI-based re-engineering” effort is about people, not technology. As the research points out, the AI revolution, as exciting as it feels, is all about redesigning the way we get things done. And that lands in the laps of HR: how we redesign, reskill, and redeploy people in a world of highly intelligent systems. Understanding The Superworker and The Superworker Company Let’s start with the basics. Companies are filled with business processes, tools, and job models designed around traditional people-centric work. Every job function, from sales to marketing to manufacturing, has been designed around the old-fashioned job families of the past. In other words, we’ve run our companies as “people machines.” We design a set of jobs and job families, then hire, train, and promote people to grow. This model creates a sprawling company filled with skills challenges, people wanting promotion, and fragility as the business goes through change. The digital revolution, which defines the last 27 years of transformation, did speed things up. It automated many processes and opened up the ideas of self-service, e-commerce, and direct consumer transactions. But it didn’t fundamentally change how companies are organized: rather it accelerated the processes we had. Suddenly, with AI everything is different. As the most intelligent and data hungry technology ever, AI stands to integrate and redefine every business process and “superpower” every employee. And this shift, toward copilots, agents, digital twins, and intelligent platforms, forces us to rethink how we’re organized, what we do, and what we define as a “job.” We are building a company of Superworkers. What exactly is a “Superworker?” A Superworker is an individual who uses AI to dramatically enhance their productivity, performance, and creativity. As routine work gets automated, AI has the potential to empower everyone, eliminating some roles while empowering many others. A “Superworker company” is an organization that embraces this transformation, building a culture of adaptability where people reinvent themselves. Our new Dynamic Organization research shows that such change-ready companies outperform their peers by six-times. Just as Superman Clark Kent learned to channel his powers, we must learn to harness AI for individual and team performance. This means not just automating existing tasks, but rethinking how work gets done, empowering people to do more, and creating opportunities for growth. The Historical Perspective: From Automation to Autonomy We’ve seen waves of automation before, but this time it’s different. In the past we used machines to automate the work of craftsmen and tradespeople. A welder, farmer, or shoemaker had his or her expertise built into a machine so their craft could scale at low cost. The expert didn’t go away, rather he or she helped design the machine. AI does the same for white collar work. Writers, analysts, marketers, and sales people are now superpowered, leveraging their skills to drive scale. AI will not replace these special individuals: it empowers them to scale and expand their impact. But in the case of AI we go further: it doesn’t just automate tasks; it becomes a co-worker itself: listening, learning, reasoning, and acting. So new and better jobs are created, designing, training, and managing the AI. And the shift to Superworker happens everywhere: from the retail clerk to the nursing supervisor to the senior executive. The New Corporate Imperative: Redesign Work and Jobs This transformation won’t happen without effort. Today, as AI systems still mature, our challenge is not implementing AI, but redesigning jobs, and business processes around AI. And that’s why success with AI is a people problem, not a technology one. And if you don’t get this right, your AI transformation will lag. Academic studies show that 45% of change management programs fail, and 72% of the reason is “people resistance.” So consider this: For each dollar spent on machine learning technology, companies may need to spend nine dollars on intangible human capital,” Erik Brynjolfsson wrote in 2022, citing research by him and others. Consider the four stage model below, where we look at “current jobs” vs “re-engineered jobs” on the horizontal, and level of output on the vertical. AI transformation begins with assistance, then moves to augmentation, then to work replacement and then to autonomy. The level of performance improvement goes up exponentially. This process of rethinking business processes takes time. When electricity was invented companies replaced horse-driven machines with motors. Decades later engineers realized we could redesign the entire manufacturing process by integrating the entire supply chain. The same will happen again. We may start by automating emails and data access, but over time we build “digital twins” and configurable agents to manage entire projects and business processes. One of our clients built an entire platform that can interview stakeholders, import documentation, build training programs, and publish training and certification programs by AI. Humans are still needed, but now they’re the “super-curators” and “craftsmen” perfecting the product. New programs that took 3-6 months can be generated in a few days. This kind of redesign is now being used for claims analysis, sales enablement, RFP generation, and workplace design. (Our report 100 Use Cases For Galileo explains dozens of such solutions available now for HR.) The Work Redesign Challenge How do we get there? Business and HR teams work together, following these stages. Improve efficiency at current job: Use AI to make existing work more efficient: same job as before, new tools to make it easier. Examples include an office worker using MS Copilot. Automate tasks to increase scale: An engineer uses AI to write code. A marketer builds videos and campaigns automatically. An HR manager rapidly builds job descriptions or analyzes performance. Integrate processes to improve productivity: Agents now handle multiple connected steps. A retail clerk automatically checks out customers; a nurse uses a machine to monitor dozens of patients and make diagnostics; an HR manager builds learning programs in minutes. Leverage autonomy for more: The AI manages multi-step processes (customer service, candidate communications, recruiting, campaign design) and the people “manage” the digital employee. This creates four types of Superworker: An Example: The HR Business Partner Consider the role of HR Business Partner (HRBP), a complex job that’s constantly changing. An HR business partner (HRBP) equipped with AI like Galileo™ can automatically analyze turnover, productivity, individual performance, and leadership potential. The AI HR Agent can help compare job candidates against multiple requirements. Analysis, coaching, and hiring speed goes up, and the HRBP is now a Superworker. Then the transformation continues. What if we give the AI to managers. Do we need the HRBP at all? (IBM has made this step.) Yes, now the HRBP manages the AI. Just as Wayze may drive you automatically, someone behind the scenes is monitoring your trip to help you when things go wrong. This “Superworker” job is the upgraded role of the HRBP. AI As A Job Creation Technology Many new jobs will be created. Who maintains the knowledge base that feeds the AI? Who ensures data privacy and security? Who handles the ethical issues that arise? Who monitors the AI to make sure it’s trained well? And once these multi-step digital employees exist, who will manage them? These are new Superworker jobs. Five Imperatives for 2025 How do we make this transition a success? Here are five key imperatives detailed in our study: Redesign Work, Jobs, and Organizational Models: Focus on the customer, how success is measured, then apply AI. This is what we call “productivity-based job design”. Deconstruct work into activities, evaluate AI solutions, and determine the human role alongside AI, using the models above. Create a Dynamic Talent Model: The traditional “prehire to retire” model is becoming obsolete. We need a more dynamic approach where people move across roles and projects. Prioritize internal mobility and foster a culture of growth. Focus on “doing more with what we have” by upgrading the productivity of our existing workforce. Focus on building “talent density“. Rethink Pay, Rewards, and Performance: Move from traditional pay models to “systemic rewards,” based on role, skills, and output. New roles may warrant higher pay, not lower. (Lightcast sees a $45,000 premium for workers with AI skills.) Refine Leadership and Culture: Focus on human-centered leadership: this is a time of change. Ensure leaders understand AI, foster innovation, and focus on productivity, not headcount. Start co-design projects in every functional areas. Get line employees involved in transformation efforts. Accelerate the Shift to Systemic HR®: HR must operate in a consulting role. Integrate HR silos, develop a change-enablement team. Experiment with AI tools in HR and train the HR team about AI. Let me give you an example. One of our large clients, a healthcare company, created a “transformation enablement” team in HR that does co-design workshops throughout the business, helping with process redesign, role design, job changes and pay and rewards changes. They built a set of tools and methodologies which are well established. HR professionals rotate into this team for education. Every HR function should set up “AI transformation teams” like this. AI isn’t here to replace us; it’s here to empower us. How To Get The Research and Learn The Rise of the Superworker predictions report is available to all users of Galileo™, The Josh Bersin Academy, or Corporate Members. (A Galileo Pro membership is only $39 per month, and JBA membership is $49 per month.) If you want to learn more and follow our ongoing case studies, briefs, and AI tools, download the Rise of the Superworker Overview today. You will be registered for regular updates. And please register for our launch webinar on January 28 where I will detail this entire story. The Superworker era has arrived, join us in the journey!
    rewards
    2025年01月16日
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