• BLS
    美国通胀降至2.7%叠加就业市场回稳:美国最新经济数据释放“软着陆”信号 刚刚美国劳工统计局(BLS)公布的最新消费者物价指数显示:整体 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%,核心 CPI(剔除食品和能源)同比 2.6%。从数字上看,美国通胀仍处在“温和区间”,并没有重新失控。但这份 CPI 报告并不完全等同于正常月份的数据。由于此前政府停摆,BLS 没有采集到 10 月的完整价格数据,本次公布的是“跨月合并后的结果”,部分项目使用了估算值。这也是为什么市场在解读时格外谨慎。 华盛顿讯 — 在年末的宏观经济拼图中,两块关键数据于今日补齐。根据美国劳工统计局(BLS)发布的最新报告,受能源和服务成本支撑,美国11月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上升 2.7% 。与此同时,劳动力市场展现出韧性,最新一周的首次申请失业救济人数意外下降,显示出尽管经济面临不确定性,雇主仍在努力维持员工规模。 通胀解码:CPI同比2.7%,核心通胀创2021年以来新低 受此前联邦政府停摆影响而推迟发布的这份通胀报告显示,截至2025年11月的12个月内,美国整体CPI上涨了 2.7% 。这一数据不仅受到市场高度关注,也被视为美联储评估物价稳定目标的关键指标。 更为关键的核心CPI(剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格)同比上涨 2.6% 。据彭博社报道,这是自2021年初以来核心通胀的最慢年度增速,表明潜在的价格压力正在逐步缓解。 尽管整体趋势向好,但结构性通胀压力依然存在: 能源部门反弹: 能源指数在过去一年中上涨了 4.2%,其中燃油价格飙升 11.3%,电力价格上涨 6.9%,成为推高整体CPI的主要因素 。 住房成本粘性: 住房(Shelter)价格同比上涨 3.0%,继续在服务业通胀中占据主导地位 。 食品价格分化: 尽管总体食品价格上涨 2.6%,但家庭食品(+1.9%)与外出就餐(+3.7%)之间的价差明显,且鸡蛋价格出现了 13.2% 的大幅下跌 。 由于政府停摆导致10月数据收集中断,BLS此次采用了特殊的统计方式,报告了从9月到11月为期两个月的价格变化,经季节性调整后整体上涨了 0.2% 。 就业市场:初请失业金人数回落至22.4万 在通胀数据发布的同时,劳动力市场也传来了趋稳的消息。截至12月13日当周,美国首次申请失业救济人数减少了1.3万人,降至 22.4万人。此前一周该数据曾大幅飙升4.5万人(经修正),这一波动反映了年末假期前后数据通常呈现的锯齿状特征。 尽管近期Verizon和PepsiCo等大公司宣布了裁员计划,且四周移动平均值(旨在平滑波动性的指标)微升500人至 21.7万人,但整体数据表明,在经济不确定性面前,大多数雇主仍选择保留现有员工。 市场展望 2.7% 的通胀率配合稳健的就业数据,为美国经济描绘了一幅复杂的图景。核心通胀的降温为货币政策制定者提供了一定空间,但能源价格的反弹和住房成本的顽固性仍是潜在风险。与此同时,申请失业金人数的下降缓解了市场对劳动力市场急速恶化的担忧,进一步强化了外界对美国经济可能实现“软着陆”的预期。 展望未来,市场将密切关注定于 2026年1月13日 发布的下一份CPI报告 ,以确认能源价格的反弹是否会传导至更广泛的经济领域,以及住房通胀是否能进一步降温。 数据来源: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Consumer Price Index - November 2025" SIA Editorial Staff & Bloomberg, "US jobless claims drop by 13,000" (Dec 18, 2025)
    BLS
    2025年12月18日
  • BLS
    How to Learn More About Labor Relations There’s a lot of talk about labor relations (i.e., union activity) in today’s news. While we’re reading about it more, the actual number of American workers that belong to unions is relatively small. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it’s 10.1% and only 6% in the private sector. So, it’s not unusual that individuals might not have much labor relations experience. That’s what today’s reader note is all about. "I am looking for some direction. I love your emails and share them with my peers.  Can you suggest any online blog, certificate program, or course I can take that would help me interpret union contracts more effectively? I am struggling to understand the grey area of the language sometimes. What I interpret the language as saying is different than the original intent of the language and I get stuck. Any help or direction you could give would be great. Have a great day!" When it comes to labor relations, one of the first things that individuals need to know is what legislation governs your industry. For instance, many organizations are governed by the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA). But some industries – like transportation – are governed by the Railway Labor Act. And if you’re in the public sector, the rules are different as well. So, understanding the rules is step one. While I have some labor relations experience, I know someone who is a specialist in this area and thankfully, when I asked if he would share his expertise, he said “yes”. Michael VanDervort is a staff member with the Labor Relations Institute (LRI) in Tulsa Oklahoma. In his role, Michael specializes in creating thriving workplaces driven by positive associate relations. Before joining LRI, Michael worked in labor relations for Publix Super Markets and was executive director of CUE Inc., a non-profit, member-run organization dedicated to assisting companies in the creation and maintenance of positive working environments. Michael and I have known each other for years. We met as volunteer leaders with the Society of Human Resources Management (SHRM) and HR Florida. Michael, thanks for much for being here. Can you share with readers how you got started in labor relations? [VanDervort] I grew up in Michigan at a time when the state was the center of the universe when it came to the auto industry and manufacturing, especially the UAW (United Auto Workers). My dad was a manufacturing supervisor at that time and would come home with paperwork that included lists of grievances that had been filed by employees, and he would have to write responses. I guess I was an HR nerd even then because I remember reading the complaints and saying,‘But why….??’ about all kinds of work-related complaints. When I graduated with my bachelor’s, I originally planned to go to law school, but I decided to take a year off to earn some cash. I applied for and got hired into a job with the U.S. Postal Service as a letter carrier, and I joined the National Association of Letter Carriers Union (NALC). I became a union member, realized how bad the relationship between craft workers and postal management was, and started asking,‘But why…?’ again. I became active with the union, winding up as an elected official, but I knew I could do more. A few years later, I applied to graduate school for my master’s in labor and industrial relations. I switched to the management side 35 years ago because that’s where you can make the most difference, and I have been doing this work ever since and still love it. Before we start talking about the reader note, I want to ask about non-union environments. Why should HR professionals in non-union environments learn about labor relations? [VanDervort] If you manage in a non-union environment, you have a blank slate for establishing a thriving workplace culture. If you do this well, your people will never need a union. That’s the first reason. The second is that even though it may seem remote and esoteric to non-union practitioners, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) is an influential agency with jurisdiction over many crucial aspects of the workplace that apply to all employers, regardless of union status. Any employee, including non-union employees covered by the NLRA, can file an unfair labor practice (ULP) charge with the NLRB and bring the Board to your front door. Most of these charges would be related to protected concerted activity for things like complaining about unfair treatment, being disciplined, or fired for sharing company information, or handbook policy violations. The reader expressed interest in building their labor relations knowledge. If someone wants to learn more about the area of labor relations, can you name a handful of low-cost / no-cost resources? [VanDervort] There are many newsletters and organizations that focus on labor relations in different ways, including professional organizations like: CUE Inc., a community for positive employee relations HR Policy Association Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) Law firms also provide great resources with their blogs and newsletters. Jackson Lewis Littler Mendelson P.C. Ogletree Deakins And free blogs, newsletters, and podcasts abound. Labor Relations Radio Labor Union News Projections Inc. and the ProjectHR podcast Lastly, my own firm, the Labor Relations Institute, offers free resources and I do a podcast called Labor Relatedly, which I co-host with attorney Jon Hyman as part of the DriveThruHR show. I put out a LinkedIn newsletter called “Positive Employee Relations” several times a week that is a great resource for staying current on developments in the labor space. And if I have some budget dollars, are there any labor relations educational programs that might be helpful? [VanDervort] CUE offers some low-cost training like Labor Relations 101 and a periodic certification course in labor relations. They also offer two conferences yearly, which are great learning opportunities for those seeking to learn more about labor relations. Michigan State University’s School of Human Resources & Labor Relations offers unique monthly courses and a certificate program for someone preparing for a leadership role in a unionized organization. Cornell University also offers an online certification in labor relations. This reader note talks about collective bargaining agreement (CBA) language. If an HR pro is trying to interpret the CBA, what should they do? Is there someone specific they should turn to for guidance? [VanDervort] The first piece of advice I received about learning labor relations and contract interpretation was ‘read the labor agreement’. This is completely true. Everything starts with the labor agreement. From there, you have guidelines in precedent, past grievance settlements, bargaining notes from negotiations, and your internal/external labor attorneys to draw from. However, you need to build your own knowledge first because every conversation you have around grievances, arbitration, and work rules with a union representative derives from that CBA, so you need to know it inside out. Last question. I’ve worked with some companies where labor relations were left up to lawyers and consultants. I’m not a lawyer or consultant bashing – they are invaluable, especially when employees might be considering union representation (i.e., organizing) and contract negotiations. How can an HR pro know when to call in outside expertise?  [VanDervort] It goes back to knowing the basics of labor law, what the current trends are in labor relations are, and how they might impact your employer. If you are non-union, follow what the NLRB is doing policy-wise. They create policies every week that impact non-union workplaces significantly. You are not doing your job if you aren’t on top of these developments. Stay abreast of what labor unions are doing and what industries they focus on for organizing. If you get a surprise petition or ULP charge, you are going to be hard-pressed to respond. If you are a union employer facing contract negotiations, ULPs, or even a strike, you must be prepared and have plans in place. These are the times when having a labor attorney or consultant in your contacts makes sense. A huge thanks to Michael for sharing his experience and knowledge with us. Michael frequently speaks and writes about a wide variety of human resources topics, including labor and employee relations, positive workplace leadership, and social media. So, I hope you’ll check out all the resources he has provided. One of the big takeaways for me in this conversation with Michael is there’s a place for labor relations in both union and non-union environments. And he’s absolutely right in saying that the NLRB is an influential agency. It’s worth your time to proactively understand what’s happening, not only for your own professional development but your company culture. Image captured by Sharlyn Lauby while exploring the streets of Tampa, FL SOURCE HR Bartender
    BLS
    2024年01月19日
  • BLS
    美国劳工统计局发布12月就业数据US BLS Releases December Employment Situation 美国劳工统计局(BLS)今天发布的12月就业形势显示,经季节性调整后,12月非农就业总数增加了216,000余人,而临时帮助服务就业人数减少了近33,300人。12月临时代理渗透率为1.80%,低于11月修正后的1.82%。全国失业率维持在3.7%不变。 大多数行业群体的就业人数有所扩大。增幅最大的群体仍是卫生和社会援助,增加了58,900多个工作岗位;紧随其后的是政府,增加了52,000多个工作岗位;专业服务(不包括临时帮助),增加了46,300多个工作岗位。运输和仓储、自然资源和采矿业、其他服务业以及临时帮助服务业的就业人数下降。降幅最大的是临时帮助服务业,降幅为近33,300人;其次是运输和仓储业,就业人数下降了近22,600;自然资源和采矿业以及其他服务业就业人数均下降了近1,000人。 BLS修订: 10月份非农业就业人数总数的下调了45,000人,从150,000余人下调至105,000余人,11月份的变化下调了26,000人,从199,000余人下调至173,000余人。通过这些修订,10月和11月的就业人数合计比之前报告的少71,000人。 10月份临时帮助服务就业人数的下调,从增加200余人到损失近42,100人,之前估计的11月下降近13,600人被下调为22,100人。通过这些修订,和11月的就业人数合计比之前报告的低 近50,800 人。 SIA的观点: 美国经济在12月增加了216,000多个工作岗位,超过了彭博社对经济学家的调查中预测的175,000个中值。失业率稳定在3.7%,但劳动力参与率下降了30个基点,从62.8%下降到62.5%,黄金年龄(25-54岁)劳动力参与率从83.3%下降到83.2%。参与人数的下降,在一定程度上反映了住户统计调查中最新的季节性调整因素。 临时帮助服务行业继续与整体经济背道而驰,尽管非农就业人数增长速度快于预期,但就业人数仍下降了33,300人。上个月的修正仍是负面的,而且幅度很大,11月份的就业人数比一个月前的预期少50,800人。这种差异的持续明显指向了劳动力囤积现象,求职者和公司注重直接就业和长期就业,而不是临时工。临时帮工就业人数的急剧下降也与运输和仓储业(一个主要客户垂直行业)的就业岗位疲软高度一致。 竞争压力继续增加,但对于那些通过技术、服务产品或两者兼而有之而发展出竞争优势的人力资源公司来说,仍有持续和巨大的机会。 SOURCE SIA
    BLS
    2024年01月12日
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