• internal mobility
    Josh Bersin: 随着经济放缓,关注未来的技能:改变的能力 本周,我们看到美国失业率“上升”到 4.3%,经济学家开始呼吁降低利率。对于那些每天与公司和领导者交流的人来说,我会说我们正经历一个正常的经济周期。 上一次重大衰退(不包括疫情,因为那不是需求放缓)是在2008年和2009年。这意味着我们已经有近16年没有经历严重的经济周期了,几乎是通常周期的两倍。虽然疫情确实让公司放慢了脚步,但我们迅速恢复了。所以从失业率来看,它大致是这样的。 在经历了50年的失业率变化后,目前的失业率比五十年前降低了12%,这让我得出结论,我们正生活在“长期劳动力短缺”中。同时,美国的GDP在此期间增长了1500%。 虽然我们目前的GDP增长可能有所放缓(我认为这是由消费者价格使我们耗尽了支出引起的),但实际上我们只是看到从“工业化、高劳动密集型企业”向所谓的“后工业化”公司的长期转型,这些公司往往需要更少的“工人”和更多高技能员工。(阅读我们的后工业时代研究。) 仍然有大量的小时工工作:护理、医疗、交通、建筑、零售、娱乐、能源和许多其他行业依赖各种类型的“劳动”工人。这些工作随着时间的推移变得越来越自动化,导致工资提高和技能升级,但美国仍有约63%的工人没有大学学位,其中大多数人找到了工作。 虽然每个人似乎对英特尔、UKG, Intuit或其他“与AI相关”的裁员感到有些恐慌,但美国经济的反应良好。我知道许多公司正在试验AI和其他技术,每个公司都担心失去有价值的人才,因为劳动力市场依然竞争激烈。 是的,一些公司会进行裁员。通常这是由糟糕的领导、糟糕的规划或只是对投资者的本能反应引起的。最终,随着出生率保持在低水平,我们仍将面临劳动力短缺,人的价值将继续上升(正如我过去指出的,裁员并非不可避免)。 在过去的三周里,我与欧洲超过20家大公司会面,每家公司都在投资于员工发展、技能再培训、内部流动性和提高生产力的项目。在欧洲,裁员既困难又昂贵,因此公司感受到劳动力短缺的压力,他们仍在投资员工。 至于消费者需求开始下降,我们正面临一个“长期结束”阶段,这是由高价格的延续引起的。消费者对过去五年的高价格感到厌倦,而在此之前,我们经历了近十年的零利率时期,房价和大多数资本品价格持续上涨。现在这两个因素都结束了,我们只是回到了更正常的经济状态。 换句话说,如果你因为“可以”而提高价格,最终你将付出代价,当消费者反抗时。如果你停止投资于员工,他们会“悄然离职”或另寻他处。这些是我认为的“正常商业经济”,我认为我们正看到这种正常性的发生。 作为一个动态组织运营 当然,最大的“趋势”是各行业的数字化和AI革命。汽车制造商被“虚假”引导进入电动车领域,发现混合动力发动机、数字相机和电子产品以及新的购车方式非常具有破坏性。出版商正在找出如何应对AI平台,这次他们保留了自己的知识产权并协商了许可协议。能源公司正在慢慢转向新来源,其他公司都在找出如何实现数字化、AI赋能,并进一步简化我们生产和销售的产品。 这都是商业的“激动人心的工作”,一切都与成为一个动态组织有关。我们的研究指出,以动态方式运营完全是关于人。 经济,通常以周期性变化(通常由过度兴奋和随之而来的疲惫引起)为特征,只是需要应对的事情。对于我这样经历了许多这种高峰和低谷的人来说,当事情不再上升并且我们看到一些冷却期时,我总是感到有点“解脱”。 是的,股市可能会暴跌。它总会在某个时候发生。但那实际上是“众包”效应,通常与我们的公司无关。如果你照顾好你的客户,投资未来,迅速学习AI和所有新技术,你将顺利过渡。正如许多HR领导本月与我谈到的,你的成功很大程度上取决于人。 未来的技能很明确:推动变革的能力 今天我与一群我们每隔几周就交流的HR领导进行了一次有趣的会议。每一位CHRO和其他领导都告诉我们,他们正在投资于员工的“变革管理”和“业务转型”技能。这意味着什么? 这意味着这样。虽然我们都希望公司有更多的工程师、制造专家、科学家和销售与营销专家,但我们最需要的“技能”是“推动变革的能力”。这种特定的技能非常复杂,需要时间来学习,并且在当前尤为重要。这引出了我的最后一点。 如果你是图凡·厄金比尔吉,劳斯莱斯的首席执行官,你正处于业务转型的过程中,旨在推动工程效率和卓越,你不仅要担心工程师。你要担心那些能够推动、领导、激励和创造变革的人。我相信,这些就是大家常谈的“未来技能”。如果你作为一个专业人士、经理或领导者真正知道如何“推动和执行变革”,这些经济周期在你的职业生涯中只是“一个小波折”。 在与HR领导交谈超过30年并在许多周期中经营我们自己的业务后,我敦促你“不要过于担心”这些大的经济数据。我们正生活在一个每个公司中每个人的经济价值飙升的时期。投资于你的员工和自己,随着经济的变化,你会做得很好。   https://joshbersin.com/2024/08/as-the-economy-changes-focus-on-the-real-skills-of-the-future/
    internal mobility
    2024年08月03日
  • internal mobility
    是时候重塑人才招聘了 -Research Shows It’s Time To Reinvent Talent Acquisition Josh Bersin 的文章 "研究表明,是时候重塑人才招聘了 "强调了人才招聘亟需进行的变革。由于只有 32% 的人力资源高管参与战略规划,而且许多人觉得自己只是个接单员,因此这篇文章呼吁进行战略改革。在劳动力短缺和急需技能型招聘的情况下,目前削减成本和减少招聘力度的方法与对技能型专业人才日益增长的需求相矛盾。文章敦促企业将人才招聘作为一项重要的战略职能,利用现代技术并将其与学习和发展相结合,以提高效率并关注内部人才流动。 原文如下: This week we published a disappointing research study, Talent Acquisition at a Crossroads. The study, conducted in partnership with AMS, points out that talent acquisition leaders (this is a senior position) are largely left out of their company’s strategic planning process and many feel they operate as “order takers.” In today’s world of labor and skills shortages, this is a wakeup call for change. Here’s the data: Among these 130+ HR executives only 32% are involved in any form of strategic workforce planning, 42% believe their company has no workforce plan at all, and 46% say “they’re running around to keep up.” And when layoffs do occur, often the recruiters go first. (Witness Tesla this week.) All this is happening in a world where 58% of companies feel skills shortages are significantly impacting their business plans, more than three-quarters believe they must transform their talent practices to grow, and “skills-based hiring” is a top priority yet difficult to implement. Here’s the paradox: companies are cutting their talent acquisition spending at the same time CEOs feel that skills shortages are getting worse. What’s going on? Talent Acquisition Needs A Reinvention Let’s just face it: recruiting as a business function has to change. Once considered the “staffing department,” where companies posted jobs and scanned resumes, talent acquisition has become highly strategic operation. What skills do we need? How do we find people who will fit our culture? What internal candidates should fill our key positions? Who are the right leaders for us to hire? Unfortunately, almost 80% of talent acquisition functions are quite tactical. PwC’s CEO survey found that CEOs rate “hiring” as the third most bureaucratic process in their companies, tied with “too many emails” and “too many meetings” as a time-wasting process. And that explains why two-thirds of TA leaders are being asked to cut costs. I had a conversation last week with a former TA leader for one of the Big Three automakers. He told me that in the fervor to hire staff for EV engineering he was asked to hire “any engineer he could find, regardless of skill,” because the company was in such a hurry. No time for skills assessment, competitive planning, or even location analysis. Just “go out there and hire engineers.” We have been studying the auto industry as part of our GWI study and found that important EV roles (reliability engineer or power plant engineer, for example), are quite specialized and hard to find. Strategic recruiting departments need to understand these roles and source these individuals carefully. Just hiring engineering grads from a local community college is not going to move this needle. (Consider the data by Draup on what these roles are. Talent Acquisition teams with talent intelligence skills can pinpoint who to hire.) And it gets worse. In our Dynamic Organization research we found that high performing companies focus heavily on internal hiring, talent intelligence tools to find hidden talent, and continuous internal development to fill skills gaps. We can’t simply throw job requisitions over to the recruiting function any more: the people we need may be buried inside the company. This week Tesla announced a layoff of 10% of their workforce. Was their time to balance and redeploy talent internally? Absolutely not. According to my sources every business unit had to let 10% go, and and many of the people being fired were talent acquisition leaders, the very people who help with these issues. We talk with many HR executives and there is an enlightened group. Companies that understand this issue (about one in eight) have elevated Talent Acquisition to a strategic function, they merge or integrate TA with L&D, and they redefine their recruiters as “talent advisors.” Mastercard, as a leader, just renamed their recruiters as “Career Coaches,” demonstrating their role in helping people find the right jobs. Despite the onslaught of AI, this role is becoming even more human-centric. High-powered recruiting teams source internal candidates, understand company culture, and have a deep knowledge of jobs, roles, and organizational dynamics. When well supported and trained, these professionals are strategic advisors, not just “recruiters.” And companies that understand this often outsource or automate much of the administration in recruiting. Technology plays a major role in this reinvention. Most large companies have dozens of legacy systems, many of which make the candidate experience difficult. When organizations focus on modernizing and streamlining their technology, talent acquisition can become 10-100X more efficient. This, in turn, gives recruiters and talent advisors the time to search for the right skills, carefully select the best candidates, and focus on internal hiring and development as a strategy. Technology Is Here But Not The Entire Answer Of all the HR technology markets, recruiting is the most innovative of all. New AI-powered systems like HiredScore (just acquired by Workday), Paradox (leader in conversational AI), Eightfold, Gloat, Draup, and Lightcast (pioneers in talent intelligence), and many others can reduce time to hire from months to weeks and weeks to days. But none of this technology works if the Talent Acquisition team is left on an island. In the last year I have met with more than 50 heads of talent acquisition and once the door is closed and we talk honestly, they always tell me the same thing. “We are not treated as a strategic function, we are being asked to cut costs, and we are constantly running from fire to fire to keep executives happy.” This type of “service-delivery” focus simply will not work in the new economy. What should companies do? As part of our Systemic HR initiative, we help companies evolve their TA Function to operate in a more strategic way. Organizations like Bayer, Verizon, and many others have elevated the role of recruiter to talent advisor, they’re building skills in talent intelligence, and they’re integrating the recruiting function with L&D, career management, and employee engagement. I’ve always felt that recruiting is the most important things HR professionals do. If we can’t get the “right” people into the company, no amount of management can recover. But what does “right” mean? And how can we source, locate, and attract these particular people? This is a highly strategic operation, and one that must integrate with internal mobility, culture, and employee experience. I encourage you to read our Systemic HR research, join our Academy, or reach out to us or AMS for advice. In this new era of talent and skills shortages, we simply cannot run recruiting in this tactical way any longer.
    internal mobility
    2024年04月24日
  • internal mobility
    Josh Bersin :劳动力市场已完全改变:您真的准备好了吗? Josh Bersin 最新撰文谈到,随着以婴儿潮一代为主的劳动力队伍的衰落和具有独特期望和职业模式的新一代的崛起,劳动力市场发生了巨大的变化。这一新劳动力的特点是偏好组合职业和副业,他们要求尊重、灵活性和精心设计工作的机会。企业在适应这些变化时面临着挑战,职位普遍空缺,人员流动增加。文章强调,企业需要采用一种动态的组织模式,优先考虑授权、内部流动性和员工积极性,以便在这个新的劳动力市场中茁壮成长。这种适应的关键在于了解劳动力现在寻求的是成长、灵活性以及他们的价值观与工作之间有意义的结合。 英文原文如下,推荐了解 The labor market has changed before our eyes. Employers and HR teams better watch out. Over the last five decades baby boomers defined the workforce. Today things could not be more different, and this change impacts all of us. I was born in the 1950s, growing up in a world where the middle class experienced steadily increasing standards of living. My father was a scientist, my mother sold art, and my brother and I had a nice middle-class life. This included a three stage career: education | work | retirement. I went to college, studied hard, and got a good job as an engineer. My career went on a predictable path. I worked for Exxon and then IBM – each company giving me training, development, and potential for long-term career. I met many great people, learned about work, got married and had a family. My cohort, the baby boomers, was huge. Companies built entire talent systems for us – onboarding, training, predictable career growth, developmental assignments, leadership development, and retirement programs. We strapped ourselves in and enjoyed the journey. Fast forward to now: things are very different. Today’s working population bulge (median age 33, born in the early 1990s,) entered the workforce in a disrupted world. They joined companies during a boom, experienced the pandemic in their 20’s, and live in a world where everything is on the internet. While my generation revered our employers, these workers see every corporate mistake in real-time. They expect their bosses to earn their respect, otherwise they’ll “quietly quit” or start moonlighting on the side. While my generation expected to work for only a few employers during a career, today people build what Lynda Gratton calls “a portfolio career.” More than 2/3 of workers have side-hustles and their resume is filled with projects, businesses, activities, and professional interests. If you look at the LinkedIn profiles of most high performers they look like personal journeys, far different from the linear career paths we had in the past. While most of these changes came slowly, the end result is profound: the expectations, needs, and demands of workers are different. And businesses have struggled to keep up. Companies have vast amounts of unfilled positions, we suffer high turnover in almost every role, and labor unions are growing in number. What do companies do? We have to accept and understand that the labor market has totally changed. We live in a world where employees will live into their 100s. Young workers are postponing getting married and having children and they see their career as a long series of experiences. The norms of a long-term linear career have ended: people try new things, change industries, and live in what I call a “pixelated” job market. And rather than blindly trust employers, people bring high expectations to work. Young workers don’t expect to “become the job,” they want the job to “become them.” (Often called “job crafting.”) And given the shortage of workers in every role, this trend is just getting bigger. While economists believe the job market will soften and employers will have more power over time, I think those days are over. Life just isn’t going back to the way it was. Despite the growth of AI, companies are more dependent on their workforce than ever. And with 70% of the jobs now service-related (healthcare, retail, hospitality), employees really are our product. I look at it this way. Companies and employers live in a pool of labor: it’s the needs and expectations of people who decide what we can and should do. People are upset about inflation. They’re worried about climate change. They want CEOs to behave ethically. And they want flexible work that lets them live a joyful life. And every year the workforce becomes more educated and connected. (The percentage of US workers with degrees has gone up to 54%, up from 38% fifteen years ago.) People know about the company’s financial results or other issues far before an announcement even comes out. While many of these trends are obvious, many companies aren’t ready. Last year I talked to the CHRO of Boeing and he told me the problems were highlighted by employees years ago. They simply were not listening, and now they’re a company in crisis. And that leads to the topic of “employee activation.” In the old days senior leaders made decisions, workers carried out the orders. Ideas and strategies were “top-down.” Today much of the intelligence we need to grow our companies is sitting with front-line workers. We need to “activate employees” and listen to them directly. The worker in the store, plant, or front office who feels frustrated by some system or process is the person who should advise us what to do. The old idea of “management by walking around” must come back. (Our Org Design Superclass explains this in detail.) I don’t mean chaos, holacracy, or lack of controls. Successful companies have a clear mission, a series of strategic initiatives, and budgets to hold people accountable. But they empower everyone to be a leader, unleashing power from the bottom up. (Come to Irresistible and learn about how Marriott and Delta airlines exemplify this model.) The key is building what we call a “Dynamic Organization” – one which is flat, team-centric, connected, and accountable. Our research shows that only 7% of companies operate this way: most are still very hierarchical and slow to adapt. But change is coming, as companies like Delta, Marriott, Telstra, Unilever, Novartis, Seagate, and Bayer have found out. (This week the CEO of Bayer announced a radical transformation to a team-centric management model, dramatically reducing the number of “bosses.”) A dynamic organization does two things well. First, it adapts to change, sees new markets, and mobilizes quickly for change. But even more importantly, it empowers people, encourages internal mobility, and focuses on meritocracy, skills, and collaboration to thrive. (Read about Talent Density to learn more.) While these ideas are not new, urgency is critical. Employees demand growth, flexibility, and agency – and we can’t deliver it unless our reward and development systems change. Today more than 70% of US jobs are in the service sector: health care, retail, entertainment, and transportation. If we don’t empower people in these roles our products and services will suffer. Let me conclude with this: we just woke up in a totally new labor market. If you don’t focus on empowerment, growth, and employee activation, talent will just go elsewhere.
    internal mobility
    2024年03月31日
  • internal mobility
    Workday收购HiredScore的意义,这可能颠覆人力资源科技领域 Workday计划收购HiredScore,这是人力资源技术领域的一次重大变革。HiredScore是一家领先的基于AI的招聘匹配工具提供商,此举将大大增强Workday在人才智能和招聘方面的能力。这次收购预计将整合HiredScore的专长到Workday的系统中,显著改善其应聘者追踪系统(ATS)、技能云和整体人才智能产品。此战略性收购可能会重塑人力资源软件市场,迫使其他供应商加速他们的AI计划,可能激发一轮新的收购热潮。 以下是原文: This week Workday announced intent to acquire HiredScore, a leading provider of AI-based matching tools for recruiting (called “talent orchestration”). While it wasn’t discussed much in the earnings call, this deal is a big positive for Workday and could have many implications for the HR Tech market. Let me explain. (I have not been briefed by Workday yet, so more information will come as I learn more.) Right now there is a massive marketplace war for high-powered AI-based recruiting tools (estimated at $30.1 billion). Historically dominated by applicant tracking systems (ATS), this market provides essential technology to help every company grow. The ATS market, which is more than 25 years old, has been rapidly transformed with high-powered AI tools that help with candidate matching, search, skills inference, and sourcing. And now that AI tools are readily available, these systems are becoming big data platforms loaded with billions of employee profiles, running complex AI models to help match people to jobs, projects, and gigs. Most ATS vendors (including Workday) have slowly extended into this space through matching. The original idea of a resume parser (software that reads a resume and scores it against a job description) has evolved into complex text analysis and AI-powered inference technology, forcing ATS vendors to invest. As the ATS vendors enhance their AI capabilities, a parallel universe of AI-first Talent Intelligence vendors emerged. These vendors, like Eightfold, Gloat, Beamery, Phenom, Seekout, Skyhive, Retrain, and Techwolf are building skills-centric big data platforms to match people to jobs, gigs, and mentors. These systems do much more than rate matches: they identify skills, find adjacent skills, match people to careers, find mentors, and more. They are essentially open big-data AI platforms built on vector databases that can be used for many enterprise apps (job architecture design, skills planning, internal mobility, pay equity analysis, etc.). In many ways they represent the future of HR Tech. (Read our Talent Intelligence Primer for more.) As the Talent Intelligence vendors grow, they start to deliver “HCM-threatening” platforms that impinge on the HCM “System of Record” idea. If you have all your employees, candidates, alumni, and prospects in Eightfold, Phenom, Seekout, or Gloat, for example, Workday or SAP look like a tactical payroll and workflow management system. (ServiceNow also understands this, and is building talent intelligence into its workflow platform.) Up until now the big HCM vendors like Workday, Oracle, and SAP have struggled to build these new systems, largely because their original architectures were not AI-based. So they’ve attracted customers with offerings like the Workday Skills Cloud or SAP Opportunity Marketplace that aren’t fully completed yet. We have talked with dozens of Workday Skills Cloud customers, for example, and they see it as an important “skills system of record,” but its real AI matching and inference capabilities have been limited. Along comes HiredScore, a well respected AI-based matching system with 150 employees and 40+ seasoned AI engineers in Israel. These folks are experts at candidate matching (quite a complex problem), and they’ve built a very innovative “orchestration” system to help line managers coordinate activities with HR business partners and recruiters (more on this later). While I’m sure they’ll continue to build out HiredScore, they can also contribute to Workday’s overall talent intelligence offering, improving the entire system – including the Skills Cloud, Workday Learning, Workday’s Talent Marketplace. As large as the recruiting software market is, the market for internal career tools, talent mobility, skills inference, and corporate learning is five times bigger. This acquisition gives Workday a shot in the arm to accelerate its entire AI platform strategy. (As the Identified acquisition did back in 2014.  Identified was the roots of the Workday Skills Cloud.) Market Implications Of This Move This move could change the market for HR software in a few significant ways. First, Workday Recruiting customers will be thrilled. Workday’s ATS now benefits from a first class matching and candidate scoring solution. This helps Workday compete with the bigger ATS players and gives Workday a new revenue source as they sell HiredScore to the existing 4,000+ Workday ATS customers. (Similar to the Peakon acquisition in Employee Experience.) And the talent orchestration features (kind of like a “staffing copilot”) gives Workday a very unique feature set. Second, this forces Workday’s talent intelligence partners to step up their game. Remember when Apple acquired Dark Sky, the most compelling micro-weather app on the market? Once they integrated it into Apple’s other apps, the market for third party weather apps went away. Workday could limit its partner network to avoid letting HiredScore competitors into the ecosystem. Third, this forces HCM vendors to accelerate their AI. Since HiredScore is such a well-respected product (every client we talk with adores it), it will become part of Workday demos and sales proposals quickly. Workday’s HCM competitors will start scratching around to find a similarly mature AI vendor to acquire. And that could kick off another round of acquisitions, similar to the frenzy that took place in the mid 2010s. Finally, there’s one more scenario, and I give this good odds. Not to be outdone by Workday, the Talent Intelligence vendors may just expand their ATS capability and decide to go “full stack.” I wouldn’t be surprised to see this happen. Why Is AI-Based Candidate Matching So Important Why is this technology so important? Well if you’ve ever tried to recruit on Indeed or LinkedIn, you know why. The quality and reliability of “candidate matching technology” is a lynchpin of a talent platform. Just as Google Search crushed Yahoo, Excite, and Inktomi, a powerful next-gen matching tool adds an enormous amount of value. Not only does it speed talent acquisition, it fuels all the internal mobility, career portals, skills, and eventually learning and pay systems. Why do I say this?  A “match” is a sophisticated problem. Unlike a Google search which looks at text and traffic, when you search for a person to fill a role you have to think about dozens of complex relationships. What are this person’s skills and capabilities? What are their credentials or certifications? Who else are they connected with? How likely will they fit into the job, role, and company? What is the impact of their industry experience? What tools and technologies do they understand? And it gets much more complex. The Heidrick Navigator platform (built on Eightfold), uses AI to assess functional skills for management and leadership, identifies a person’s “ability to drive results,” and more. This important application of AI powers many of the most important decisions we make in business. That’s why the Talent Intelligence space is growing so fast. As of this week there are more than 1,800 Director or VPs of “Talent Intelligence” in LinkedIn, and that number is up almost six-fold from one year ago. Can Workday take the lead in this emerging space?  It’s impossible to tell at this point, but the horses have left the gate and the race is on. This deal sets the players in the right lanes and feels like the earthquake to shake things up.  
    internal mobility
    2024年03月01日