2024年人力资源预测:全球追求生产力In this fast-evolving era, all companies and individuals are seeking for change and efficiency. We can see the core of productivity in the new year: AI. Let's have a look at details on the Josh Bersin Predictions for 2024.
在过去的二十年里,我一直在写关于人力资源预测的文章,但今年不同。我看到这一年打破了范式,改变了商业中的每一个角色。不仅人工智能会改变每家公司和每一项工作,而且公司将开始不懈地寻求生产力。
想想我们的过去。2008年金融危机后,世界开始了加速增长的零利率时期。公司增加了收入,雇用了员工,并看着他们的股价上涨。招聘继续以狂热的速度进行,导致2019年底失业率创下3.5%的历史新低。
随之而来的是大流行,在六个月内,一切都停滞不前。2020年4月,失业率飙升至15%,公司将人们送回家,我们重新设计了我们的产品、服务和经济,以应对远程工作、混合工作制和对心理健康的关注。
一旦经济再次启动(由于美国的财政刺激),公司又回到了旧的招聘周期。但随着利率上升和需求不足,我们看到裁员一再发生,在过去的18个月里,我们看到了招聘、裁员,然后再次招聘以复苏经济。
为什么会出现跷跷板效应?
首席执行官和首席财务官正处于我们所说的“工业时代”——招聘以增长经济,然后在事情好转时裁员。
今天,当我们进入2024年时,一切都不同了。我们必须“囤积人才”,投资于生产力,并重新开发和重新部署人员以实现增长。
我们生活在一个失业率为 3.8% 的世界,几乎每个职位都存在劳动力短缺,劳动力权力日益增强,员工需求不断涌现:对加薪、灵活性、自主权和福利的要求。每年有超过20%的美国员工换工作(每月2.3%),其中近一半的变化是进入新行业。
为什么这是“新常态”?
有几个原因。首先,正如我们在全球劳动力情报研究中所讨论的那样,行业是重叠的。每家公司都是数字化公司;每家公司都希望建立经常性收入来源;很快,每家公司都将使用人工智能。过去停留在行业内的职业正在转变为“基于技能的职业”,让人们比以往任何时候都更容易跳槽。
其次,员工(尤其是年轻员工)感到有权按照自己的意愿行事。他们可能会悄悄地辞职,“做兼职”,或者抽出时间转行。他们看到自己的生活很长(人们的寿命比 1970 年代和 1980 年代长得多),所以他们不介意离开你的公司去其他地方。
第三,生育率持续下降,劳动力短缺加剧。日本、中国、德国和英国的劳动力人口都在萎缩。在未来十年左右的时间里,大多数其他发达经济体也将如此。
第四,工会正在崛起。由于华盛顿的新理念,我们看到了谷歌、亚马逊、星巴克、GM、福特、Stellantis、凯撒、迪士尼、Netflix等公司的劳工活动。虽然工会参与率不到美国劳动力的11%,但在欧洲要高得多,而且这一趋势正在上升。
这一切意味着什么?
这有很多影响。
首先,公司将更加专注于建立高保留率的工作模式(有人称之为“劳动力囤积”)。这意味着改善薪酬公平,继续混合工作模式,投资于以人为本的领导力,并为员工提供在公司内部从事新职业的机会。这就是为什么人才市场、基于技能的发展和工作流程中的学习如此重要的原因。
其次,CEO必须了解员工的需求、愿望和要求。正如爱德曼的最新研究表明的那样,职业发展现在位居榜首,同时对授权、影响力和信任的渴望也排在首位。我们称之为“员工激活”的新主题:倾听员工的意见,并将有关他们工作的决定委托给他们的经理、团队和领导者。
第三,传统的“雇佣成长”模式并不总是奏效。在这个后工业时代,我们必须系统地运作,将内部发展、工作再设计、经验和招聘放在一起。这汇集了招聘、奖励和薪酬、学习与发展以及组织设计等独立领域。(阅读我们的系统性人力资源研究了解更多信息。)
“业务绩效”的真正含义是什么?
如果你是首席执行官,你希望增长收入、增加市场份额、提高盈利能力和可持续性。如果你不能通过招聘来成长(而员工不断以奇怪的方式“激活”),你还有什么选择?这很简单:您可以自动化生产并专注于生产力。
虽然这张图表令人印象深刻,但它给每个CEO都引出了一个问题:我们在这张图表上的位置是什么?我们的运营速度是否与同行一样快、一样高效?
我认为这导致了一种我称之为“生产力优势”的策略。如果你能帮助你的公司更快地发展(生产力意味着速度,而不仅仅是利润),你就可以比你的竞争对手更快地进行重塑。这才是真正让CEO们夜不能寐的原因。
考虑一下普华永道最新的CEO调查数据。今年,我们必须比以往任何时候都更快地重塑我们的公司。到2024年,45%的CEO(去年为39%)认为他们的业务在十年内将无法生存。
生产力优势
为什么生产力如此重要?有四个原因。
首先,CEO们关心它。
2024 年普华永道 CEO 调查发现,CEO 认为公司 40%的工作浪费了生产力。
尽管这听起来令人震惊,但对我来说却是真实的:太多的电子邮件、太多的会议、混乱的招聘流程、官僚主义的绩效管理等等。(HR 就有其中一些问题。)
其次,AI让人生产力优势成为可能。
人工智能的应用旨在提高白领的生产力。(过去大多数自动化都有助于蓝领或灰领工人。)生成式 AI 让我们能够更快地查找信息,了解趋势和异常值,训练自己和学习,并清理我们随身携带的文档、工作流程、门户以及后台合规和管理混乱的系统。
第三,公司的发展需要AI。
当很难找招聘到人时,你将如何成长?去年,招聘时间增加了近20%,就业市场变得更加艰难。你能在技术技能上与谷歌或OpenAI竞争吗?
内部开发、重组和自动化项目就是答案。有了生成式人工智能,机会无处不在。
第四,生产力推动重塑。
如果你考虑重塑你公司(新产品、利用人工智能、进入新市场等)的需求,最大的障碍是惯性。为什么诺基亚和黑莓的手机业务输给了苹果?因为这些公司“又胖又快乐”。在这个人才和技能短缺的时代,这是灾难的根源。
普华永道(PwC)估计,“效率低下”产生了对GDP10万亿美元的税收,相当于全球GDP的7%。这种税收阻碍了您的公司转型。每当我们简化、减少会议并更好地定义决策权时,我们都会加快并实现变革。
这一切对人力资源意味着什么?
正如我在《人力资源预测》中所描述的那样,我们有很多问题需要解决。
我们必须加快向动态工作和组织结构的转变。我们必须专注于和务实地对待技能。我们必须重新思考“员工体验”,并处理我们所说的“员工激活”。我们将不得不对我们的人力资源技术、招聘和L&D系统进行现代化改造,以利用人工智能并使这些系统更加有用。
我们的人力资源团队也将由人工智能驱动。正如我们的Galileo™客户告诉我们的那样,一个架构良好的“专家助理”可以彻底改变人力资源人员的工作方式。我们可以成为“全栈”人力资源专业人员,在几秒钟而不是几周内找到有关我们团队的数据,几秒钟与一线领导分享人力资源、领导力和管理实践。(Galileo被一些世界上最大的公司用作管理教练。)
还有一些其他变化。随着公司专注于“通过生产力实现增长”,我们必须考虑每周 4 天的工作制,我们如何将混合工作制度化,以及如何以更有效的方式连接和支持远程工作者。我们必须重新关注领导力发展,在一线经理身上花费更多的时间和金钱,并继续投资于文化和包容性。我们必须简化和重新思考绩效管理,我们必须解决令人头疼的薪酬公平问题。
还有更多。
DEI 计划必须嵌入到业务中(人力资源 DEI 警察的时代已经结束)。我们必须清理我们的员工数据,以便我们的人工智能和人才情报系统准确且值得信赖。正如我们的系统性人力资源研究所指出的那样,我们必须将思维从“支持业务”转变为“成为有价值的顾问”,并将我们的人力资源服务产品化。
所有这些都在我们本周发布的40页新报告“2024 年人力资源预测”中进行了详细说明,其中包括一系列行动计划,以帮助您思考所有这些问题。
让我提醒你一个大观念。生产力是人力资源部门存在的原因。
我们所做的一切,从招聘到辅导,从开发到组织设计,只有在帮助公司成长的情况下才能成功。作为人员流动、敬业度、技能和领导力方面的专家,我们人力资源部门每天都在提高员工和组织的生产力。2024年是专注于这一更高使命的一年。
最后一件事:照顾好自己。
该报告有15个详细的预测,每个预测都有一系列需要考虑的行动步骤。最后一个真正适合你:专注于人力资源的技能和领导力。作为流程的管理者,我们必须专注于我们自己的能力。2024年将是成长、学习和团队合作的一年。如果我们处理好这15个问题,我们将帮助我们的公司在未来一年蓬勃发展。
Josh Bersin预测的详细信息
预测研究是我们每年阅读量最大的报告。它包括我们所有研究的详细摘要,并讨论了首席执行官、首席人力资源官和人力资源专业人士的15个基本问题。它将以以下形式提供:
包含详细信息的信息图。(点击这里)
Source JOSH BERSIN
What Issues are Top of the Mind for HR Leaders Heading into 2024?根据康奈尔大学工业劳动关系学院高级人力资源研究中心的一份调查报告,“转型和演变”这一广泛而重要的话题最近受到人力资源领导者的关注,该问题被确定为2024年企业的最紧迫问题。
“考虑到公司一直面临的所有颠覆,无论是在业务方面,还是在地缘政治问题的更广泛环境中,看到转型成为今年的首要目标,我并不感到惊讶,”康奈尔大学战略人力资源教授兼该中心主任布拉德贝尔说。
根据上周发布的调查,超过三分之二(67%)的人力资源领导者认为转型和演变(包括人力资源转型、文化演变和混合工作演变)是首要问题。而2023年,转型与演进排名第三,只有大约45%的受访者认为是首要问题。
调查显示,由于地缘政治力量和劳动力变化导致的业务中断正在加剧人们对转型和演变的担忧。Bell 说,人力资源领导者特别关注人力资源内部的转型,例如保持公司的敏捷性、提高效率和优化运营。他指出,中东的冲突和乌克兰的持续战争限制了这些地区的员工流动,另外,总体上减缓了一些人力资源转型工作。他补充说,对组织治理问题的高度关注,包括股东对高管薪酬的发言权,也在缓和人力资源转型,因为这种努力可能会限制招聘工作。
此外,Bell 表示,调查参与者报告说,快速的组织文化变化使员工难以建立联系并发展共同的目标,尤其是在当今分散的工作环境中。作为回应,人力资源领导者经常更新他们的混合工作模式,这可能会损害包容性或其他相关目标,从而阻碍文化发展。
HR 优先事项如何变化
排名前五的问题分别是人才管理、技术、员工体验以及领导力和继任计划。
Bell说,技术是今年进入前五名的新事物,这主要是由于人力资源部门对人工智能的兴趣。在前几年,该主题被嵌入到其他类别中,例如数字员工体验。去年排名第四的总奖励从榜单上掉了下来。
“每年,似乎都会有一个新话题出现在前 5 名名单上,”贝尔说。他说,2023 年,在高通胀和寻求为员工提供经济救济的组织推动下,总薪酬是增加的。但今年,通胀正在放缓,对经济衰退的担忧正在缓解,这可能会减少雇主对这一领域的担忧。
DEI 和福祉仍然是人力资源的优先事项吗?
Bell 说,尽管他们没有进入前五名,但 DEI 和福祉仍然是人力资源领导者最关心的问题之一。与去年一样,他们在 2024 年分别排名第六和第七。
Bell 说:“人力资源主管谈到希望保持他们迄今为止在 DEI 方面取得的进展,甚至希望将这些努力提升到一个新的水平。“例如,他们不仅考虑多样性和包容性,还考虑我们如何推动公平和各种人才实践。”
然而,他指出,一些公司正在撤回他们的 DEI 努力。这些行动反映在最高法院去年对平权行动作出裁决后,削减 DEI 预算和裁员 DEI 官员。
他说,同样,雇主对幸福感的关注也在减弱。
“大流行后,人们对员工的健康和福祉非常关注,”贝尔说。“我认为它已经有所消退。我不认为它像我们在调查中看到的其他一些主题那样受到同等程度的关注。
Source Human Resource Executive
观点
2024年01月31日
观点
情商如何增强团队建设企业的成功除了企业策略团队建设等还需要团队成员之间的配合,对于企业来讲,软实力也不容忽视。情商是加强团队建设以及领导力的重要因素之一。高情商的领导和高情商的团队成员能有效避免潜在的时间、精力等的浪费,还能加强部门之间的沟通,提高责任感和团队目标感,有利于创造一个以人为中心的工作氛围。
Emotional intelligence elevates team building by fostering open communication, empathy, and understanding among members. It creates a positive workplace culture, strengthening relationships and contributing to overall team success and well-being.
FREMONT, CA: Emotional intelligence, or EQ, plays a crucial role in team construction and leadership. It involves understanding one's own emotions and reactions while also appreciating and interacting effectively with the emotions of others. Individuals with strong emotional intelligence, marked by humility, empathy, and self-regulation traits, tend to foster smoother communication and build robust relationships. This capacity for emotional intelligence in the workplace enables team members to proactively anticipate and address potential issues, such as conflicts, saving valuable time, energy, and resources crucial for organisational success. Developing emotional intelligence is an ongoing process that improves with practice, contributing significantly to the effectiveness of teams.
Any organisation that wants to succeed must focus on building emotionally intelligent teams. These teams may function best when they have open and effective communication, which is what makes them thrive. The procedure calls for deliberate measures and thorough planning. First and foremost, for team members to appreciate the value of their contributions, they must have a clear grasp of their responsibilities and the group's objectives. Second, creating platforms that support individual opinion expression encourages participation and a sense of ownership. Thirdly, leaders must foster empathy, communication, trust, and respect. Lastly, offering chances for group learning and development inspires the group, improving problem-solving skills and fortifying interpersonal ties. By recognising individual abilities, these actions help teams build emotional resilience.
Building relationships and encouraging candid communication are essential components of a productive team. If team members lack emotional intelligence, it can be challenging to encourage open communication since they may find it difficult to read body language or recognise mood swings. Developing ways that enable individuals to exchange information without fear of repercussions is essential to the success of any team. These tactics should emphasise the significance of having productive discussions where everyone feels heard and supported.
A few examples are one-on-one meetings with team leads, group brainstorming sessions, mentorship initiatives, and promoting more positive comments within the group. Teams can increase trust and connection while increasing productivity at work by implementing these methods.
Encouraging transparency and cooperation among team members is an effective tactic for creating unity and creating prosperous enterprises. Emotional intelligence must be given top priority to successfully build such an environment. Creating an environment where team members can express themselves without worrying about criticism or peer pressure is critical. This can be accomplished using easy strategies like regular talks between management and employees or team-building activities promoting opinion exchange.
Promoting open communication ensures that everyone feels free to share their thoughts, which boosts output overall and gives teams the tools they need to cooperate to achieve objectives. Hence, integrating emotional intelligence into team building is indispensable for fostering a positive and thriving workplace culture. Ultimately, the cultivation of emotional intelligence contributes to team success and also to the overall well-being and satisfaction of team members, creating a foundation for sustained growth and achievement.
Source ManageHR
The Power of Employeeship and its Direct Impact on Company's ResultsAfter The Great Resignation in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic and the huge wave of Baby-boomers retirement, pressure was put on companies. Till now, the war of talent is still ongoing in the time on the edge of various crisis. Company centered strategy is shifting to people centered. What should we do?
The war for Talent is something that many companies around the globe have faced over more than two decades. This phenomenon coined by Steven Hankin of McKinsey & Company in 1997 is still ongoing, more challenging than ever. It simply refers to an increasingly competitive landscape for recruiting and retaining talented employees.
The Great Resignation in addition is an ongoing economic trend in which employees have voluntarily resigned from their jobs in early 2021 in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Among the most cited reasons for resigning include wage stagnation is the long-lasting job dissatisfaction.
Here we could also add depopulation in some Western countries, big gap between demand and supply in critical competencies and huge wave of Baby-boomers retirement, big uncertainty in the world with conflicts and energy crisis, all of that indeed put the pressure on companies to Re-think the People strategy.
So, the million question is which driving factor is the most important enabler for companies to attract and retain people? There is no general recipe and no copy-paste strategy. Instead, look deeper into your people analytics, needs and behaviours. You will find the answer BUT I would dare to emphasize that psychological safety is taking more and more place among employees as the most critical one. By empowering Employeeship with psychological safety in the ground companies can gain both in terms of individual but also team performance. Research and survey are showing that innovation as a competitive advantage is possible if a company has people with high motivation and strong feeling of belonging. How could the way to empowered Employeeship look like:
"Empowered Employeeship leads to usage of full potential a company possess in its people"
1. Create a Culture of Care where people feel comfortable to admit, share and learn from failures. Companies need to have strong leadership commitment and empower its employees to bring even difficult topics to the table and discuss. Care from psychological perspective includes continues learning and development in all aspects. Care is very much about listening and understanding, supporting and coaching in the way that opens up for new ways of thinking and managing things.
2. Develop a Culture where ownership and responsibility in the organization is strong linked to each and one of the employees. If the employee is rather a partner than a subordinate than the individual contribution and feeling of personal value will be higher. This employee will give a company more value back because it will feel respected, acknowledged and empowered. This in turn will even strengthen company´s leaders and most probably lead the company to a higher maturity level. The better people the better business. At the end, all business problems are people problems. Therefore make your people accountable, responsible and put the hat of ownership on top of their heads. Just to mention, Employeeship is a philosophy adopted notably in Sweden where the hierarchy is abandoned. And it gives great companies, brands and results!
3. When having 1 and 2 in place then the most natural part is to work further with Inclusion. You can also say that companies need to develop a Sense of Coherence where three parts are important: a) the employee needs to feel included in an environment that is understandable and purposeful; b) the employee needs to have resources and conditions that makes the work possible and manageable; and c) the work that the person is expected to deliver and perform need to be part of the bigger picture and the employee needs to understand that. Just sitting in front of the computer day in and day out, delivering for example drawings of calculations will not give meaning long term. But if you put these deliveries into the bigger context by showing where this piece of a puzzle is and how it is connected to other pieces will most probably lead to higher satisfaction and retention rates, loyalty, performance and for certain create strong attractiveness as well.
Empowered Employeeship leads to usage of full potential a company possess in its people. We all have individual responsibility to contribute to a culture where other people feel comfortable. Just start with yourself and how you would like to be treated. Clear direction from top management and strong commitment from all employees will make this journey possible.
SOURCE ManageHR