Yes, HR Organizations Will (Partially) Be Replaced by AI, And That’s GoodI adore the human resources profession. These folks are responsible for hiring, development, leadership development, and some of the most important issues in business. And despite the history of HR being considered a compliance function, the role is more important than ever. CHRO salaries, for example, have increased at 5-times the rate of CEO pay over the last twenty years, demonstrating how essential HR has become.
That said, we have to be honest that AI is going to disrupt our role. This week IBM formally announced that 94% of typical HR questions are now answered by its AI agent, and the role of HR Business Partner is all but eliminated except for very senior leaders. As a result the CEO plans to reduce HR headcount and shift that budget towards sales and engineering.
Let’s accept the fact that we are in a time of increasing acceleration. In other words, the capabilities of AI are growing much faster than our organizations” ability to adapt, so we have to lean forward and start redesigning our companies. In the case of HR, our Systemic HR model (which we launched two years ago) is now being fully automated by AI.
I know IBM’s story well, and I think it explains where all HR teams are going. Many years ago Diane Gherson (prior CHRO) started AI projects to automate recruitment, pay analysis, and performance management. She spoke at our conference eight years ago and shared how IBM’s pay tool (CogniPay was launched in 2018) uses AI to make pay recommendations based on skill. This type of tool, which was years ahead of the “skills-based” strategies we see today, essentially automated many of the performance and pay decisions left to managers.
Since then IBM has gone much further, and in my last conversation with Nickle Lamoureux (current CHRO) she told me the AI agent helps write performance reviews, creates development plans, and coaches managers and senior leaders on a myriad of performance based decisions. I totally believe this because I see Galileo doing these kinds of things for companies every day. (Check out the Mercury release.)
How does this impact the roles and jobs in HR? Well it definitely eliminates many.
In the case of L&D or HR business partners, I believe we could see a 20-30% or more reduction in HR headcount per employee. And that means these individuals may wind up managing the AI platforms, moving into roles as change consultants (which AI still can’t do), or move into areas like org design, learning architect, and data management.
I think this is all a good thing. While we all worry about AI taking our jobs, we have to remember that our real job is not to “do things” but to “add value” and bring complex problem solving skills to our companies. And in this journey to “crawl up the value curve,” we all have to learn to use AI, develop AI solutions, and think more systemically about how our companies go to market.
I recently interviewed a brilliant HR leader (podcast coming) at WPP who explained how he and his team rationalized their job architecture from 65,000 job titles to only 600 by using new AI tools from OpenAI and Reejig (a work intelligence vendor). As you’ll hear in his story, this effort was a combination of data management, business analysis, change management, and leadership. The results of this work, which are still ongoing, is the opportunity for WPP to dramatically change its go to market strategy, innovation, and growth.
That’s the kind of thing we want our HR teams to do.
And as these various agents hit the market (see my latest view of the market below), HR professionals are going to have to train them, implement them, and “manage them” for long term success. This means analyzing the cross-functional data they produce, extend them into better decision-making, and move our thinking from dated concepts like “time to hire” and “course completion rates” to meaningful measures like “time to revenue” or “time to productivity” or “time to customer service excellence.”
See where I’m going? In a time of increasing technology acceleration we have to “lean in” as hard as we can.
Stop thinking about how much money we save on headcount (which is a fleeting benefit, by the way) and focus on value creation. That’s the big benefit of AI: customer service quality, time to market, and innovation.
In many ways these “HR downsizing” stories are really stores of “HR crawling up the value curve,” which is really a good thing. And for HR professionals, it’s a time for personal reinvention.
观点
2025年05月16日
观点
你以为大家都懂 AI？其实他们都在装懂——Pluralsight《2025 AI 技能报告》深度解读
“我其实不太懂，但又不好意思说。”——这是许多技术人员和高管面对 AI 时的真实心声。
在我们谈论 AI 如何颠覆行业、重塑岗位的时候，也许我们忽略了一个关键问题：究竟有多少人真的懂 AI？
Pluralsight 最新发布的《2025 AI 技能报告》给出了一个惊人的答案：大多数人其实都在“演戏”。
是的，你没有听错。报告调查了来自美国和英国的 1,200 位技术高管和从业者，发现整整 79% 的人承认夸大了自己对 AI 的理解，而站在组织最前线的高管，居然有 91%“装懂”。这不仅是一场职场里的集体错觉，也是一面照见现实的镜子：AI 正在迅速成为新的职场“裸泳”试炼。
“会不会用 AI”变成了一种表演
在很多公司，使用 ChatGPT 或 Copilot 本应是一种提升效率的手段，但却被悄悄贴上了“偷懒”的标签。报告显示，61% 的人觉得在工作中用生成式 AI 会被认为不够敬业。
于是，人们开始偷偷摸摸地用 AI —— 不打招呼、不留痕迹，生怕别人知道自己依赖了工具。这种“影子 AI”现象，让整个职场变得有点像小学考试时偷偷翻书的学生：大家都在作弊，却都装作没有。
“我懂 AI”成为职场社交货币
在调查中，九成从业者自信地说：我有足够的技能把 AI 工具融入工作中。 但问题来了：几乎同样比例的人又说，是“其他人”的 AI 技能不够，才导致项目失败。
这不是一个技术问题，而是一个认知偏差问题。正如报告所言，这可能是“达克效应”（Dunning-Kruger Effect）在作怪：越不懂的人越自信，越懂的人越谨慎。
我们真的会被 AI 取代吗？
报告也揭示了另一种深层焦虑：90% 的受访者担心自己被 AI 替代，而这个比例较去年增长了 19%。最焦虑的行业包括：内容创作、数据分析、销售和市场。
但现实其实并不那么残酷。数据显示，有近一半的企业正在新增 AI 相关职位。换句话说，AI 并不是“替代者”，而是“重塑者”。只是那些被“重塑”之前的人，必须先完成一场认知与技能的跃迁。
真正的赢家，懂得不断更新
幸运的是，大多数公司正在醒来。59% 的企业已经开始提供 AI 培训，54% 的企业通过涨薪来缓解员工的焦虑，甚至有些公司开始为员工提供“AI 心理建设”。
更可喜的是，有 8 成的技术从业者表示：AI 真的让我的工作更轻松了。
从数据建模到个性化推荐，从云管理到自动化任务，这些看似“高冷”的 AI 应用，正在变得触手可及。
写在最后：别再装了，真的可以学
也许我们都该承认：AI 发展太快了，不懂是常态，懂才是稀缺。真正拉开差距的，从来不是“演得像不像”，而是你有没有诚实地面对自己的技能盲区，并持续进步。
这份报告不是在揭示一个笑话，而是在给每一个职场人提个醒：别再装了，时间不等人，AI 的浪潮已经拍到了你脚边。
你是要假装会游泳，还是现在就跳下去学？
麦肯锡：AI赋能职场，企业如何跨越管理障碍，实现智能化未来？员工对 AI 的适应速度远超领导层的预期
AI 如何重塑职场？
人工智能（AI）正在以惊人的速度重塑职场生态，许多企业正试图利用 AI 提高生产力、优化决策流程并增强市场竞争力。然而，AI 技术的广泛应用远非一蹴而就，企业的 AI 部署不仅涉及技术升级，更考验管理者的战略眼光和执行力。
麦肯锡的《Superagency in the Workplace》 这份报告深入研究了 AI 在职场中的应用现状，基于对 3,613 名员工和 238 名 C 级高管 的调查，揭示了企业在 AI 落地过程中的机遇与挑战。报告认为，AI 在职场的变革潜力堪比蒸汽机之于工业革命，但当前的最大障碍并非技术问题，而是领导层的行动力不足。
尽管 92% 的企业计划在未来三年增加 AI 投资，但只有 1% 认为自己 AI 发展成熟，表明大多数企业仍停留在 AI 试点阶段，尚未实现全面部署。更值得注意的是，报告发现员工对 AI 的接受度远超管理层的预期，但企业的 AI 发展速度依然滞后。领导者的犹豫和执行力缺失，正成为 AI 规模化应用的最大瓶颈。
本文将从员工接受度、领导层挑战、组织架构变革、AI 治理、商业价值实现等多个维度，介绍报告的核心观点，并补充对 AI 发展的进一步思考。
一、员工比领导更快接受 AI，企业行动缓慢
报告的核心发现之一是：员工已经在积极使用 AI，而领导者仍然低估了 AI 的普及度。
数据显示：
员工使用 AI 的频率比领导层预期高出 3 倍，但许多企业尚未提供系统性培训；
70% 以上的员工认为 AI 在未来两年内将改变至少 30% 的工作内容；
94% 的员工和 99% 的高管都表示对 AI 工具有一定熟悉度，但只有 1% 的企业认为 AI 应用已成熟。
这一现象表明，AI 在企业中的主要障碍并非员工适应能力，而是管理层的滞后决策。许多企业高管仍然停留在探索 AI 价值的阶段，而员工已经在日常工作中广泛使用 AI 工具，如自动生成文档、数据分析、代码编写等。员工在推动 AI 发展方面的主动性，远远超出管理层的认知。
然而，企业未能为员工提供足够的 AI 培训和资源，导致 AI 的应用仍然停留在浅层次，难以转化为真正的生产力提升。例如，48% 的员工认为 AI 培训是 AI 规模化应用的关键，但许多公司仍未建立 AI 学习机制。企业如果不采取措施缩小这一认知鸿沟，可能会错失 AI 带来的长期竞争优势。
二、AI 领导力挑战：速度焦虑与执行落差
尽管 AI 的发展潜力巨大，但报告指出，47% 的企业高管认为公司 AI 发展过于缓慢，主要原因包括：
AI 技术成本的不确定性：短期 ROI（投资回报率）难以量化，导致企业不敢大规模投资；
AI 人才短缺：AI 相关技术人才供不应求，企业缺乏相应的招聘和培养体系；
监管与安全问题：企业在数据隐私、算法透明度等方面的担忧阻碍了 AI 落地。
这种“速度焦虑”让企业在 AI 发展过程中陷入试点—停滞—观望的循环：
试点阶段：部分企业已启动 AI 试点项目，如客服自动化、数据分析等；
停滞阶段：由于短期收益不确定，试点项目难以规模化推广；
观望阶段：企业倾向于等待行业先行者经验，而非主动探索 AI 的商业价值。
报告强调，AI 的落地不仅是技术问题，更是企业管理问题。领导者需要具备更强的战略决心，加快 AI 投资，并明确 AI 在企业中的角色，才能真正推动 AI 规模化应用。
三、如何实现 AI 规模化落地？
1. AI 人才培养
AI 的大规模应用依赖于系统性的 AI 人才培训。然而，报告发现，近一半的员工认为企业提供的 AI 支持有限。企业需要采取措施：
建立 AI 培训体系，涵盖 AI 基础知识、业务应用和 AI 伦理等内容；
推广 AI 试点项目，让员工亲身参与 AI 工具的开发和使用；
设立 AI 激励机制，鼓励员工利用 AI 提升工作效率。
2. 组织架构调整
AI 不能仅仅作为 IT 部门的创新项目，而应当成为企业整体战略的一部分。报告建议：
设立 AI 战略委员会，确保 AI 发展与企业长期战略保持一致；
推动 AI 在各业务部门落地，提升 AI 在实际业务流程中的应用深度；
强化 AI 风险管理，确保 AI 应用在数据安全和监管方面的合规性。
3. AI 治理：平衡速度与安全
虽然 AI 带来了极大的商业价值，但报告指出，企业在 AI 治理方面仍存在诸多挑战：
51% 的员工担心 AI 可能带来的网络安全风险；
43% 的员工关注 AI 可能导致的数据泄露；
企业需要建立 AI 伦理标准，确保 AI 透明、公正、合规。
四、AI 时代的商业价值：企业如何真正实现 ROI？
尽管企业对 AI 充满期待，但报告显示，目前仅 19% 的企业 AI 投资带来了 5% 以上的收入增长，表明大多数企业的 AI 应用尚未转化为可观的商业回报。为了提升 AI 价值，企业需要：
从“技术驱动”转向“业务驱动”，确保 AI 应用直接创造商业价值；
优化 AI 目标设定，明确 AI 在核心业务中的定位；
加强 AI 应用场景探索，特别是在客户服务、供应链管理等高回报领域进行深入部署。
AI 成败的关键在于管理层
AI 的成功不仅依赖技术本身，更取决于企业领导者的执行力和战略眼光。企业若要真正迈向 AI 时代，需要：
加速 AI 战略落地，推动组织变革；
加强 AI 人才培养，提高员工 AI 适应能力；
建立 AI 治理体系，确保 AI 安全合规发展。
在 AI 时代，最危险的不是迈得太快，而是思考得太小、行动得太慢。
附录：《Superagency in the Workplace》 下载
马斯克的反HR管理模式：从企业到联邦政府Elon Musk’s approach to workforce management, first seen during his Twitter takeover, is now playing out on a national scale. As an advisor to the Trump administration and head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Musk is applying his “lean efficiency” philosophy to federal bureaucracy. His tenure at companies like Tesla, SpaceX, and X has been marked by mass layoffs, rigid accountability, and controversial HR policies. While his leadership style prioritizes efficiency and rapid change, it often leads to legal challenges and employee dissatisfaction. Organizations can learn from Musk’s aggressive tactics by balancing accountability with strategic communication and employee well-being.
当一封名为**“十字路口的选择”（A Fork in the Road）**的邮件突然出现在员工的收件箱中，内容警告他们若不回复将被视为自动辞职时，许多人感到不安。这种强硬的管理手段并不是新鲜事，而是埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）多年来一贯的管理风格。
早在2022年11月，马斯克收购推特（现X）后，他便裁掉了近一半的员工，并迅速废除远程办公政策，要求所有员工返回办公室，除非获得他的个人批准。随后，他发出了一封标志性的邮件，要求留下来的员工接受“极度硬核”的工作模式，即高强度、长时间的工作节奏。
这次大刀阔斧的改革为外界提供了一个窗口，让人们得以一窥马斯克的管理哲学：极端效率、高度问责、快速决策。这一模式已在他旗下的多家公司——特斯拉（Tesla）、SpaceX 和 Neuralink 等得到了体现，如今，他正试图将其应用到美国联邦政府。作为特朗普政府的顾问及“政府效率部”（DOGE）负责人，马斯克正在推行一系列激进的机构改革，包括裁员、重组和强化绩效考核制度，而这些措施无一不让人想起当初的推特改革。
HR眼中的马斯克模式
尽管马斯克因创新和商业成就备受推崇，但他的管理风格在HR领域却争议不断。过去十年间，特斯拉因工作环境问题、种族歧视指控、加州工厂的安全隐患等多次被起诉。2024年，特斯拉刚刚解决了一起涉及多次陪审团裁决的歧视案件，而SpaceX和Neuralink也因不公平的劳动实践和工作环境问题受到关注。X（推特）更是深陷与前员工的法律纠纷，许多前员工因被裁员后未能获得合法的遣散补偿而成功通过仲裁维权。
更值得关注的是，马斯克的企业文化刻意削弱传统HR机制。2020年，特斯拉曾推出一份被称为“反手册”（Anti-Handbook）的员工手册，明确表示公司不推崇传统的规章制度，认为“政策和规则只是为了设定最低标准，而我们不是那样的公司。”这一理念强调员工的高绩效要求，但也意味着更少的保护和支持。
从企业到联邦政府：HR的挑战与机遇
如今，这一反HR模式正被复制到联邦政府。最明显的例子之一是美国人事管理办公室（OPM）近期向部分政府雇员发出的裁员通知，邮件的标题恰好也是“十字路口的选择”。在政府机构，马斯克正在推行更严苛的绩效管理体系，例如要求员工每周提交五项工作成果，然而，这种方式在高度官僚化的政府机构中难以实施，并已导致部分裁员决策被法院驳回。
专家分析指出，马斯克的模式核心在于高度问责，但缺乏过渡和沟通，这也是其争议所在。“他的管理风格强调立刻执行，而不是渐进式调整，” 谈判专家安德烈斯·拉雷斯（Andres Lares）表示，“但在政府这样的大型机构中，像泰坦尼克号掉头一样，不可能一夜之间完成变革。”
与此同时，HR行业也在思考如何应对这一趋势。一方面，组织可以学习马斯克在提升效率方面的成功经验，打造更具执行力的文化；另一方面，企业需要避免极端化，确保变革过程中员工的信任和稳定性。例如，在远程办公问题上，马斯克持强硬立场，认为“远程办公的员工大多是假装工作”，但HR专家指出，灵活办公模式对于许多员工（如照顾家庭的职场人士）至关重要，过度削减灵活性可能会导致人才流失。
结语：HR该如何应对马斯克模式？
马斯克的HR模式已经不再局限于企业，而是进入了政府机构，并可能对未来的管理模式产生深远影响。对于HR从业者来说，这是一个思考如何平衡效率、问责与员工福祉的机会。HR需要关注的不仅是绩效，还包括组织文化、信任和沟通方式。企业可以借鉴马斯克的高效执行力，但要避免因过度强调效率而破坏员工关系。
毕竟，一个可持续的组织，不能只靠“极端效率”运作。
作者：Ryan Golden
观点
2025年03月08日
观点
The top 5 HR trends today – and HR's guide to what's nextSAP SuccessFactors 每年都会深入研究全球 HR 趋势，以帮助企业制定更有效的人才战略。2025 年，他们分析了来自 40 家全球权威媒体的 254 项预测，归纳出 5 大核心“元趋势”，展现 HR 在企业中的双重角色：既是变革的“指挥者”，也是政策落地的“引航者”。
1️⃣ 重新连接员工： 由于经济压力、决策争议和信任危机，员工体验恶化，57% 的员工认为如果公司不采取措施，他们的倦怠问题不会改善。HR 需关注心理契约，增强员工信任。
2️⃣ AI 从炒作走向实际价值： AI 进入大规模落地阶段，企业需明确 ROI 并平衡员工和领导者对 AI 价值的不同预期。46% 的员工认为 AI 省下的时间属于自己，而非公司。
3️⃣ 技能转型的平衡策略： 由于 AI 发展迅猛，企业技能鸿沟加剧。除了关注技能，薪酬激励成为推动学习的重要因素，54% 的员工表示，如果公司实施基于技能的薪酬体系，他们会更愿意学习新技能。
4️⃣ DEI&B 的分歧： 企业对多元化、公平性和包容性（DEI&B）态度不一，26% 的员工认为公司对 DEI&B 关注过多，而 33% 认为关注太少。HR 需明确 DEI&B 战略，以促进长期文化变革。
5️⃣ 混合办公的未来： 组织已基本确定办公模式，2025 年将验证其成效。54% 的员工愿意牺牲部分薪酬，以换取更大的工作灵活性。
这些趋势展现了 HR 在塑造未来工作模式中的关键作用，企业需借助创新技术和数据驱动的洞察来优化人力资源管理。
Each year, the HR Research Scientists at SAP SuccessFactors conduct research to understand the top HR and workforce trends facing organizations and share our perspective on what HR teams should consider as they look to help their companies address these trends. This year we aggregated and synthesized data from 40 global and regional reputable business press sources that put forward 254 individual trends and predictions grounded in their own research and data. We then conducted a content analysis of the trends sample to derive the five key themes, or “meta-trends.” While our annual report always includes some pointed commentary and critique about each trend based on our expertise in psychology, new this year is calling upon our own body of original applied research to incorporate datapoints and insights, resulting in a more evidence-based point of view.
This year’s trends are in different stages of maturity and on different trajectories; therefore, the role that HR needs to play to help businesses tackle and capitalize on these trends is different. We’ve organized the trends into two sections aligned to the dual role HR will play in addressing them.
First, HR will need to act as a Conductor, leading the orchestration of a strategy and associated change management across the business to realize the opportunities these trends offer:
Trend #1: Reconnecting the disconnected employee: Contentious decisions, macroeconomic and sociopolitical stressors, and breached trust with leadership has led to employee stress and burnout – and consequently, a crisis of disconnect and counterproductivity. In the year ahead:
Leaders must ruthlessly prioritize fulfilling their end of the “psychological contract” by meeting employees’ basic needs.
People managers will be seen as a lifeline for employees drowning in disconnect.
STAT: 57% of employees feel unless their companies make some serious changes, their burnout will not get better.
Trend #2: Moving from AI hype to AI impact:Organizations are shifting from AI pilot projects to enterprise-wide rollouts, demanding proof of clear value and ROI. In the year ahead:
Organizations will home in on their key value drivers for AI, revealing their true priorities.
The body of research on the ROI of AI will be built this year.
Organizations will find friction between leaders’ and employees’ goals for using AI.
STAT: 46% of employees feel that the time that they save by using AI tools at work belongs to them, not their organization.
Trend #3: Striking a balance to steer skills forward: Organizations continue to face pervasive skills gaps, in part due to rapid AI advancements. A more balanced approach is needed to see tangible progress in skills-based transformations this year. In the year ahead:
“Skills-based” will no longer be the only goal.
Pay will prove itself the missing piece of the upskilling puzzle.
The human vs. technical skill debate will move from or to and.
STAT: 54% of employees would be more motivated to learn new skills if their company instituted skills-based pay.
Second, HR will need to act as a Navigator, leading the organization through precarious waters and circumventing obstacles to put policies into practice for the betterment of all stakeholders:
Trend #4: Divesting or doubling down on diversity, equity, inclusions, and belonging (DEI&B): Some organizations remain committed to DEI&B goals, continuing to ask “How are we going to do this?” Others plan to divest, instead now asking “Are we going to do this?” In the year ahead:
Some will shy away from DEI&B goals, but these approaches will vary.
Taking a stand on DEI&B will change company cultures in the long term, but it’s not clear exactly how.
STAT: 26% of employees say companies focus too much on DEI&B, 41% of employees say companies focus an appropriate amount on DEI&B, and 33% of employees say companies focus too little on DEI&B.
Trend #5: Plugging into or pulling the plug on hybrid work: Now that organizations have determined their position on where their employees will work, it’s time to see if they achieve the outcomes they intended. In the year ahead:
Those businesses choosing the return-to-office path will see whether their bets paid off this year.
Those choosing the hybrid or remote path will take it a step further, integrating autonomy as a core value in other aspects of work design.
STAT: 54% of employees would consider being paid less if they could have more flexibility in where and when they work.
Read the report to see what’s now and what’s next for each trend, along with some fast facts that uplevel the nerdiness of this year’s trends report. We also include a section on how SAP SuccessFactors solutions can help organizations address the 2025 HR trends.
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