IBM最新报告：AI真正重写的不是岗位，而是判断权！给北美华人HR的六个提醒IBM 最新发布的《2026 CHRO Study: Designing the Thinking Organization》，值得所有在北美工作的华人HR认真读一遍。这份报告调查了1,500名CHRO及负责 workforce strategy 的高级管理者，并覆盖8,800名全职员工。IBM提出的核心概念是“Thinking Organization”：真正领先的企业，不一定是使用AI最多的企业，而是能够重新设计人与AI如何共同判断、共同工作，并把AI释放出来的能力转化为增长的企业。
从NACSHR的视角来看，这份报告真正值得关注的，并不是再次告诉我们“AI很重要”，而是把问题推进到了组织设计层面：当AI开始承担越来越多分析、写作、推荐甚至决策工作之后，企业必须重新回答——什么必须由人负责？谁拥有最终判断权？人又如何在AI环境中继续成长？
一、未来最值钱的AI能力，不是会不会用，而是会不会判断
过去两年，不少企业的AI培训重点都集中在“怎么用”：怎么写Prompt、怎么提高效率、怎么让AI帮助生成内容。但IBM的研究显示，真正开始拉开差距的能力正在变成 judgment。57%的管理者认为 critical thinking 和 problem framing 是AI时代的重要能力；更值得注意的是，71%的管理者认为员工需要具备监督、验证或推翻AI输出的能力，但员工中只有38%认识到这一能力的重要性。
这背后是一个很现实的变化。过去，员工的价值主要来自“完成任务”；未来，越来越多岗位的价值会来自“判断AI完成的任务是否正确”。对于HR也是如此。AI可以筛选简历、生成JD、整理绩效反馈、分析员工数据，但最终谁来判断AI是否理解业务背景、是否遗漏特殊情况、是否产生不公平结果、什么时候必须人工介入？AI时代真正稀缺的，可能不是最会使用AI的人，而是最有能力对AI结果负责的人。
二、AI正在改变的，不只是岗位，而是岗位里的决策权
现在大量关于AI与就业的讨论仍然围绕“哪些岗位会被替代”，但IBM提供了一个更值得HR关注的视角。目前只有26%的企业能够清晰定义哪些工作属于 human-led、AI-assisted 或 AI-executed；与此同时，已经有29%的工作流开始引入AI agents，IBM预计到2028年这一比例将达到40%。
这意味着技术已经进入workflow，但组织设计并没有完全跟上。未来HR设计岗位时，不能只问“这个人负责什么”，还要进一步问：这个workflow中AI负责什么？人负责什么？哪些事情AI可以推荐但不能决定？谁可以override AI？如果AI出错，最后由谁承担责任？IBM发现，36%的管理者已经认为责任不清增加了AI部署难度，而43%的员工表示，当AI出问题时，最终责任往往会落到自己身上。
因此，AI时代HR需要参与的已经不仅是Job Description，而是Decision Architecture——重新设计工作的判断权、升级机制和责任边界。
三、比Skill Gap更危险的，可能是Skill Erosion
企业过去非常熟悉Skill Gap：未来需要什么技能，现在没有，就通过培训补上。因此，IBM发现已经有80%的企业建立了reskilling roadmap。但AI带来了另一类更隐蔽的风险：Skill Erosion，也就是技能退化。
60%的员工担心AI正在导致自己的技能退化，46%的管理者也把这个问题列为重要担忧。IBM甚至使用了“cognitive atrophy”，也就是“认知萎缩”这个词。如果AI每天替我们写第一版、做基础分析、定义问题、总结材料，长期下来，人可能不是“不会用AI”，而是逐渐失去了自己完成这些工作的能力。
这对L&D提出了一个全新的问题。过去我们问：“员工还需要学习什么？”未来还必须增加一个问题：“AI正在让员工停止练习什么？”企业需要主动识别哪些判断力、问题定义能力、客户理解和专业经验不能因为自动化而失去练习机会。
四、AI可能正在拿走年轻人才成为专家的练习场
IBM报告里还有一组数据特别值得北美HR关注。只有23%的企业正在增加entry-level hiring，其余77%持平或减少；在企业重点加强的人才群体中，experienced individual contributors占34%，first-line managers占27%，而early-career talent只有7%。
问题在于，很多现在看起来“低价值”的初级工作，过去本身就是人才成长的重要训练过程。整理资料、做基础分析、写初稿、处理简单客户问题，这些工作虽然最容易被AI自动化，却也是新人形成业务理解、判断力和专业经验的重要路径。
如果入门级工作减少，但企业没有同步设计新的学习路径，那么今天换来的效率，可能会变成明天的人才断层。未来企业必须更主动地设计apprenticeship、rotation、simulation、supervised decision-making，让新人即使不再重复大量基础任务，也仍然能够获得足够的真实判断经验。
五、AI并没有简单减少工作，它还创造了一层“看不见的工作”
AI经常被描述成减少工作量，但IBM的数据展示了另一面。80%的管理者认为，AI正在创造大量新的、没有被充分认可的工作，包括验证AI建议、纠正错误、补充背景信息以及处理异常情况；42%的员工则表示，AI增加了自己的工作量，或者新增工作没有获得认可。
这对Performance Management是一个很大的挑战。未来真正有价值的员工，可能不是“输出最多的人”，而是能够发现AI错误、处理复杂例外、保证最终结果质量的人。但如果绩效体系仍然只计算产出数量，这部分贡献就会变成新的Invisible Work。对HR来说，未来绩效管理必须从“做了多少”进一步转向“判断质量、结果质量和责任贡献”。
六、CHRO真正面临的，是一次角色升级
IBM报告里有一个数据值得所有HR Leader认真思考：46%的企业在制定AI Strategy时，没有CHRO参与。但AI影响的恰恰是岗位、技能、组织结构、员工体验、绩效、招聘和人才供应链。如果这些问题全部由CTO、CIO、COO先设计完成，再交给HR做培训和change management，那么HR在AI时代仍然只是支持部门。
更现实的是，IBM发现72%的企业在HR Function内部仍然有限使用或完全没有使用AI，真正达到AI-native at scale的HR只有6%。这也是为什么IBM提出，HR必须先把自己变成AI的“试验场”。招聘、学习、绩效、员工服务、workforce planning，都是HR可以先进行Human + AI redesign的领域。只有HR自己真正走过这条路，才有能力帮助整个企业重新设计工作。
对于北美华人HR来说，这其实也是一次重要的职业窗口。过去HR的专业壁垒主要来自劳动法规、招聘、薪酬福利、员工关系和组织发展，这些能力当然仍然重要，但AI正在增加另一层要求：理解业务、理解技术、理解workflow，并能够设计People + AI如何共同完成工作。
NACSHR认为，未来优秀的HR不会只是People Expert，也需要逐步成为Work Architect。AI时代真正需要HR回答的，不再只是“这个岗位还需不需要人”，而是哪些工作必须保留人的判断，哪些决策可以交给AI，员工如何安全地质疑AI，新人如何继续形成经验，以及AI释放出来的时间和能力最终被投入到哪里。
IBM把这样的企业称为“Thinking Organization”。而对于HR行业来说，这也可能成为下一阶段真正的分水岭：AI越强，HR越不能只管理人。HR必须开始设计“人如何与AI一起工作”。这不是一次工具升级，而是一次组织设计能力的升级。
来源说明
本文主要依据IBM Institute for Business Value发布的《2026 CHRO Study: Designing the Thinking Organization》。研究由IBM Institute for Business Value与Oxford Economics合作开展，调查1,500名CHRO及负责workforce strategy的高级管理者，并另行调查8,800名全职员工。
报告围绕Human + AI work accountability、Judgment in workflow processes、Work redesign、Workforce recomposition、Entry-level and career development strategy、Reskilling、Gains reinvestment、Psychological safety、Performance and growth management及Trustworthy AI in people decisions等十项能力展开。
本文涉及的Skill Erosion、Critical Thinking、Entry-level Hiring、Work Redesign、AI Agents、Invisible Work、CHRO参与AI战略及HR内部AI应用等数据，均来自该报告相关章节。
9月26日，来硅谷继续讨论：AI时代，HR到底应该重新设计什么？
这些问题，也正是我们将在 9月26日北美华人人力资源年度论坛·硅谷 继续深入讨论的核心议题。NACSHR将邀请来自科技、半导体、AI及出海企业的HR负责人、业务管理者与资深专家，围绕 AI时代的组织转型、工作方式变化、人才画像、HRBP角色变化、跨文化管理以及人才选拔 展开现场交流。我们希望这不仅是一场“听趋势”的会议，而是一次北美华人HR之间真正关于现实工作的深度讨论：当AI开始进入workflow、改变岗位与决策权，HR应该如何参与工作重构？哪些能力必须留在人手里？新人如何继续成长？CHRO和HRBP又该如何找到新的位置？如果你也正在面对这些问题，欢迎9月26日来硅谷和我们一起讨论、连接同行、交换实践。期待在现场见到你。
报名链接：https://nacshr.org/Survey/EB107E0C-A678-9D12-06C3-2B5D860689B7
Work Redesign
2026年09月22日
Work Redesign
12 Opportunities for HR in 2026: Building Organisations That Thrive in the Agentic AgeThe best way to predict the future is to create it (Peter Drucker).
If 2024 and 2025 were years of experimentation with generative and agentic AI, 2026 is the year organisations must scale. CEOs now expect measurable productivity improvements, while CFOs demand disciplined value creation. Yet many organisations remain stuck in pilot mode - not because the technology is immature, but because their operating models, skills and structures cannot absorb AI at scale.
Two-thirds of CEOs say their competitive differentiation depends on having the right expertise in the right roles, supported by reskilling, selective hiring, AI agents and strategic partnerships - the “build, buy, bot, borrow” model. Workforce strategy has become a CEO-level concern.
Introduction: HR’s R&D Moment
In the AI future, HR becomes your R&D department (Ethan Mollick)
For HR, the implications are profound. As Ethan Mollick notes, “In the AI future, HR becomes your R&D department”. HR now sits at the intersection of work redesign, skills strategy, leadership capability, organisational health and AI governance. The choices HR makes in 2026 will determine whether organisations unlock agentic productivity - or continue to experiment with little or no impact.
During the 10+ years I’ve been publishing this annual look at the year ahead, it has evolved from predictions to opportunities, because the forces shaping work now unfold over multiple years – and as Niels Bohr wryly observed:
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future!” (Niels Bohr)
As ever, the 2026 opportunities are informed by Insight222 research, conversations with CHROs and people analytics leaders, Digital HR Leaders podcast interviews, and extensive academic and market analysis.
What follows are 10 opportunities for HR to lead with clarity, evidence, purpose and humanity in the agentic age. As in past years, I will again crowdsource two additional opportunities from readers, so please add your ideas in the comments below. An extensive list of references and further reading are also provided at the end of the article.
"When HR is fully engaged, AI adoption accelerates" (Bain, You Can't Spell AI without HR)
THE 12 OPPORTUNITIES FOR HR IN 2026
FIG 1: 12 Opportunities for HR in 2026 - as envisaged by NotebookLM (Source: David Green)
#1. Redesign Work for a Human-AI Operating System
“Agentic AI is already changing the nature of tasks, workflows, and roles — and organisations must redesign work to fully capture the benefits.” (McKinsey, The State of AI in 2025)
Organisations are beginning to move beyond experimentation and rethinking how work is structured. HR should now take the lead in designing the operating system that orchestrates humans and AI agents: clarifying tasks, workflows, decision rights, escalation points and where humans add unique value.
The question is no longer “What can we automate?” but “What is the optimal blend of humans and agents to deliver what we need?” That means starting from outcomes, decomposing work into tasks, and then deciding which should be human-led, AI-augmented or agent-delivered.
A coherent operating system requires clear governance: transparency, ethical boundaries, decision thresholds, and norms for human oversight. With CEOs pushing for productivity and CFOs demanding cost discipline, HR has the opportunity to become the architect of safe, scalable, value-creating AI-enabled work. Organisations that get this right will accelerate productivity, decision quality and speed of execution; those that don’t risk remaining confined to pilot purgatory.
“The future of work will be shaped not by replacing humans, but by redesigning systems to optimise the partnership between people and technology.” (Oliver Wyman Forum, How Generative AI is Changing the Future of Work)
"When you redesign work around human strengths, AI becomes a multiplier, not a threat. The shift is from doing tasks to orchestrating outcomes." (Loren Shuster, Digital HR Leaders podcast episode)
FIG 2: Human Agency Scale (Source: Stanford)
#2. Elevate Strategic Workforce Planning into a Core Enterprise Discipline
“Strategic workforce planning is now a CEO-level priority.” (McKinsey, Workforce Planning in the Age of AI)
Strategic workforce planning (SWP) has been elevated from an HR process to a C-suite priority. CEOs now see talent, skills, automation and cost decisions as central to enterprise performance. Consequently, HR must transform SWP into a dynamic system connecting strategy, skills, cost and organisational design. This involves scenario modelling, internal mobility mapping, talent flow analysis and productivity forecasting- not traditional headcount planning.
The “build, buy, bot, borrow” portfolio CEOs expect HR to manage demands continuous decision-making, not annual cycles. In an agentic environment, demand for skills shifts constantly, and SWP becomes the mechanism that helps leaders decide: When to reskill. When to hire. When to deploy agents. When to partner
Done well, SWP becomes one of the CEO’s sharpest tools for competitiveness, enabling faster reallocation of talent, clearer trade-offs and more confident long-term investment.
"The companies that get ahead build workforce planning into the business rhythm, not as an annual HR exercise but as a strategic capability." (Diane Gherson, Digital HR Leaders Podcast episode)
FIG 3: Five shifts for the future of workforce planning (Source: Deloitte)
3. Build a Dynamic Skills and Capability Ecosystem
“Skills have become the currency of work — and organisations must create systems where people can move fluidly to opportunities.” (World Economic Forum, Global Skills Taxonomy Toolkit)
Static job architectures cannot keep up with the speed of work. HR must build a dynamic skills ecosystem that continuously identifies, updates and deploys skills. AI-driven inference can surface emerging capabilities in real time, replacing outdated self-reporting and static competency models.
This ecosystem supports transparent internal mobility, talent marketplaces, AI-enabled learning and capability building aligned to business priorities, not generic training. Employability shifts toward adaptability, breadth, and the ability to collaborate effectively with AI.
Skills ecosystems reduce external hiring, increase internal mobility and enable transformation at scale. In 2026, skills can become the operating layer of the enterprise, connecting strategy, workforce decisions and learning in one adaptive system.
“High-performing companies are shifting from jobs to skills, and from hierarchy to capability ecosystems that evolve as fast as the business.” (BCG, AI at Work 2025)
"The real reason to become a skills-based organisation is business agility. As strategy shifts and technology evolves, you have to continually understand who you have relative to the work that needs to get done." (Sandra Loughlin, Digital HR Leaders Podcast episode)
FIG 4: Core skills in 2030 (Source: World Economic Forum)
4. Reshape Leadership for the Agentic Age
“As AI changes how work happens, leadership must evolve.” (BCG, As AI Changes Work, CEOs Must Change How Work Happens)
Leadership models built for supervision, expertise and control are no longer fit for a world where agentic AI executes tasks, synthesises information and accelerates decision cycles. In the agentic age, the leader’s job shifts from managing work to orchestrating systems - framing problems, setting direction, governing risk and enabling people and agents to operate together productively.
The research appears to be unequivocal: organisations will only capture the value of AI if leaders develop new muscles- judgement, systems thinking, ethical reasoning, rapid learning, transparency and the ability to steward change at speed. Leaders must become designers of workflows, not reviewers of work; enablers of experimentation, not gatekeepers; role models for adaptability, not certainty.
Psychological safety becomes even more important. As Amy Edmondson notes, people need to feel safe challenging both leaders and AI outputs. Leaders who create clarity, connection and trust see far higher adoption of agentic tools. Insight222 research highlights that the most effective leaders use data and evidence to guide decisions, while staying deeply human in how they communicate and build culture.
Perhaps most importantly, leaders must unlearn. As Katarina Berg puts it, almost everything about how we lead “is being rewritten” - and clinging to legacy behaviours slows the organisation.
The leaders who thrive will be those who embrace humility, curiosity and the mindset of a system architect - guiding people and AI to create outcomes neither could achieve alone.
"Psychological safety extends to AI. People must feel safe to question outputs and raise concerns." (Amy Edmondson, Digital HR Leaders podcast episode)
“Leaders have to get comfortable unlearning…we can’t cling to practices that no longer help people thrive.” (Katarina Berg, Digital HR Leaders podcast episode)
5. Strengthen Organisational Health, Fairness & Inclusion to Unlock Sustainable Performance
“Improving worker wellbeing is a powerful mechanism to raise productivity — potentially by 10–15%.” (McKinsey Health Institute and World Economic Forum, Thriving workplaces: How employers can improve productivity and change lives)
Organisational health, fairness and inclusion are now fundamental economic multipliers. Organisations that prioritise wellbeing consistently outperform peers on innovation, retention, productivity and financial performance.
In the agentic age, these issues become even more central. Poorly implemented AI can increase cognitive load, reduce autonomy and introduce new fairness risks - from biased models to opaque decisioning. HR must embed fairness, safety and inclusion into workflows, hiring systems, performance management and career pathways. Work should be redesigned to reduce friction, protect autonomy and ensure equitable access to opportunity and skills.
Healthy organisations transform faster, retain scarce skills and build the trust required for AI adoption. “Make work better” shouldn’t just be a slogan (as well as the name of a rather excellent blog by Bruce Daisley); it should be a mandatory requirement for sustainable performance.
"Firms that prioritise wellbeing outperform the stock market… delivering higher shareholder returns.” (De Neve et al, Workplace Wellbeing and Firm Performance)
"Fairness matters more than ever. AI raises the stakes, so leaders must communicate clearly and build cultures of accountability." (Patricia Frost, Digital HR Leaders podcast episode)
FIG 5: The relationship between employee wellbeing and firm financial performance (Source: McKinsey, World Economic Forum, De Neve et al)
6. Reimagine Employee Experience for a Hybrid, AI-Augmented Workforce
“Employee experience is now the chief predictor of retention, productivity, and resilience.” (Deloitte, Global Human Capital Trends 2025)
Employee experience (EX) must now be designed as a system, not a collection of disconnected initiatives. Continuous listening, behavioural insights and real-time feedback loops replace annual surveys as the core instrumentation of EX.
AI is reshaping how people collaborate, solve problems and access support - from copilots in productivity tools to agents embedded in HR services. HR’s task is to ensure these tools remove friction, strengthen connection and enhance, rather than erode, meaning and craftsmanship.
Culture is experienced in small moments: team rituals, collaboration norms, clarity of roles, responsiveness of systems. Organisations that redesign EX holistically - across workflows, leadership behaviours, workplace design, technology and hybrid rhythms - should unlock higher levels of resilience, engagement and performance.
In 2026, EX should evolve to become the way strategy is felt by employees day-to-day, not a separate programme.
"Hybrid work isn’t a policy — it’s an ecosystem. You have to design experiences intentionally, otherwise you get the worst of both worlds." (Michael Fraccaro, Digital HR Leaders podcast episode)
Join me for a webinar on January 15 as we unveil the key findings from the Insight222 People Analytics Trends
Register to join Madhura Chakrabarti, PhD, Jonathan Ferrar and me for an exclusive webinar on January 15 as we unveil the findings of the sixth annual Insight222 People Analytics and AI Trends study. Based on data from 370+ companies across the globe. Sign-up here.
7. Scale People Analytics as a Strategic Intelligence Function
“People analytics must evolve from answering HR questions to shaping enterprise decisions.” (Insight222, People Analytics Trends Report 2025–26)
People analytics is becoming the intelligence system that guides enterprise decision-making. With skills data, workflow telemetry, organisational network insights and AI-usage patterns, organisations can finally understand how work actually happens rather than how it appears in org charts or process maps. This shift - from descriptive reporting to real-time organisational sensing - is fundamental in the agentic age.
To scale effectively, people analytics requires firm foundations: automated data pipelines, integrated skills and work data, responsible governance and the capability to design and run experiments at pace. The aim is not to produce more dashboards (heaven forbid); it is to produce clarity. Which behaviours drive productivity? How is value created in teams? Where are critical skills emerging or eroding? What is the impact of AI agents on work quality, decision velocity and employee experience?
Done well, people analytics becomes a strategic advantage: a system that enables early detection of risk, faster reallocation of talent, and continuous improvement of workflows and leadership behaviours. In an agentic organisation, the winners will be those who learn faster, not merely those who measure faster.
“The link between people data and business performance becomes clear when you can show how engagement and capability lift profitability.” (Sharon Taylor, Digital HR Leaders podcast episode)
"The power of people analytics comes when insight ties directly to business outcomes — performance, customer experience, productivity." (Dawn Klinghoffer, Digital HR Leaders podcast episode)
FIG 6: Insight222 Leading Companies in People Analytics Model (Source: Insight222)
8. Embed Responsible AI & Workforce Governance
“AI cannot scale without trust.” (Gartner, AI in HR: Hits, Misses and Growing Pains)
Trustworthy AI is now a business imperative. As organisations deploy agentic systems across workflows, HR must lead the creation of governance frameworks that ensure fairness, explainability and ethical use of both employee and organisational data. This means setting clear decision boundaries, defining human-in-the-loop oversight, stress-testing models for bias, and establishing transparent communication so employees understand how AI affects opportunities, assessments and career paths.
Effective governance also requires continuous monitoring of outcomes, not just initial risk assessments. Research shows that poorly governed AI erodes trust, increases cognitive load and amplifies inequity - while well-designed systems enhance autonomy, safety and performance at scale.
Governance is not a brake on innovation; it is the guardrail that enables safe acceleration. Organisations with explicit principles, documented guardrails and credible oversight adopt AI faster and with greater employee support. Responsible AI is no longer a peripheral concern - it is a core component of the modern social contract between employer and employee.
“Responsible AI must be embedded from the start, not retrofitted once problems occur.” (TI People, From AI Impact Assessment to Results)
"AI amplifies both good and bad decisions. Governance is not optional — it’s the difference between progress and harm" (Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic, Digital HR Leaders podcast episode)
9. Elevate the CHRO as Enterprise Co-Pilot in Organisational Reinvention
“The CHRO is now the CEO’s most important partner in navigating the AI transition.” (BCG, What CEOs Should Look For in an AI-First Chief People Officer)
With work, skills, leadership and operating models being redesigned simultaneously, the CHRO has become the CEO’s closest strategic partner. Boards increasingly rely on CHROs to assess leadership capability, organisational health, skills readiness, talent allocation and the workforce implications of AI-driven change.
The modern CHRO blends economics, organisational psychology, AI literacy, systems thinking, culture expertise and data fluency. They shape decisions on business model reinvention, automation strategy, productivity, leadership appointments, capability building and culture renewal.
This is a profound expansion of scope. CHROs who embrace this mandate will become architects of reinvention, not custodians of HR processes. The role is more complex, more consequential and more central to enterprise performance than at any point in the last 50 years – perhaps ever.
“The CHRO has moved from people expert to organisational architect — shaping how work evolves with technology.” (Lynda Gratton, Digital HR Leaders podcast episode)
"CHROs have a unique vantage point: they understand capability, culture and change. That combination is what drives transformation." (Janine Vos, Digital HR Leaders podcast episode)
10. Reinvent the HR Operating Model and HR Capabilities for the Agentic Era
“Traditional structures will not deliver the speed or integration now required.” (Mercer, Operating by Design: Mercer’s new outcome-driven operating model for HR and technology)
HR cannot deliver any of the nine opportunities presented in this article without reinventing itself. Traditional COEs and service-delivery models were designed for times of stability - not today’s world of continuous workflow redesign, dynamic skills needs and pervasive AI.
A modern HR operating model requires:
Cross-functional integration rather than siloed COEs
AI-enabled workflows that automate transactional work
Real-time intelligence from people analytics and skills data
Clear decision rights and owner–accountability for outcomes
HRBPs fluent in AI, economics, data and organisational diagnosis
HR teams need new foundational capabilities: systems thinking, experience design, product mindset, experimentation, behavioural science, data literacy and technical fluency.
Only by reinventing itself can HR enable reinvention everywhere else.
“The HR function of the future blends analytics, experimentation, organisational design and technology fluency. These are no longer optional skills—they are foundational.” (Insight222, People Analytics Trends Report 2025–2026)
“HR leaders need to think of themselves as product managers, where employment is the product. That mindset changes everything — from how we design experiences to how we drive adoption and co-create solutions with our stakeholders." (Tanuj Kapilashrami, Digital HR Leaders podcast episode)
FIG 7: The New HR Operating Model (Source: TI People)
WHAT HR MUST BECOME TO DELIVER THESE OPPORTUNITIES
To realise these ten opportunities, HR must evolve into a more integrated, insight-driven and future-defining organisational function. That transformation requires three essential shifts.
Operate as an integrated enterprise system.
Redesigning work, skills, leadership and employee experience cannot be achieved by isolated teams. Talent, learning, EX, people analytics and HR operations must function as an interconnected platform with shared outcomes, shared intelligence and shared accountability. The problems we are solving - skills scarcity, organisational redesign, leadership transformation and AI integration - are all system problems, and so therefore require system responses.
Become AI-fluent and evidence-led.
HR professionals do not need to become data scientists or engineers, but they must understand AI’s capabilities, risks and organisational implications. AI literacy, data fluency and scientific thinking are now foundational capabilities for those aspiring to successful careers in HR. As work becomes more agentic, judgement improves when paired with evidence - and HR must champion this partnership across the organisation, from frontline decisions to board-level discussions.
“If HR doesn’t understand how AI works, we can’t shape how work gets redesigned. Data and AI literacy isn’t optional anymore — it’s the entry ticket.” (Nickle LaMoreaux, Digital HR Leaders podcast episode)
Build a new capability portfolio.
The future HR function blends organisational psychology, behavioural science, systems thinking, experience design, experimentation, governance, talent economics and transformation leadership. These capabilities enable HR to redesign workflows, govern AI ethically, accelerate skill building and orchestrate complex, multi-year change.
In short, HR must become the function that designs, enables and accelerates organisational reinvention - not merely responds to it.
“The best HR teams are running experiments constantly. It’s not about having all the answers — it’s about learning faster than the organisation around you.” (Thomas Otter, Digital HR Leaders podcast episode)
CONCLUSION: HR'S MOMENT OF MAXIMUM INFLUENCE
2026 is a defining year. Organisations are no longer debating whether AI will reshape work - they are debating how fast, how safely and how humanely. That places HR at the centre of enterprise strategy in a way we have not seen in decades.
These opportunities are not tasks - they are capabilities to build. They demand a more integrated, experimental, analytical and courageous HR function. Some will challenge long-held assumptions. Most will stretch HR beyond its comfort zone.
But the prize is meaningful. Organisations that combine agentic technology with human judgement and care will outperform those relying on technology alone. HR—with its unique position at the intersection of people, work and strategy—holds the key for how organisations adapt, thrive and unlock value in the agentic age.
This is HR’s moment of maximum influence.
The question is not whether HR is ready — but whether we will seize the opportunity...
CROWDSOURCING: HELP SHAPE THE FINAL TWO OPPORTUNITIES
Each year, the best ideas come from this community. The challenges and innovations transforming HR rarely originate from a single company - they emerge from the everyday work of practitioners across industries.
So, once again, I’m opening up the final two opportunities to you.
If you were to add one opportunity HR must focus on in 2026, what would it be—and why?
It could be something emerging in your organisation, a challenge I have under-discussed in the first ten opportunities, or a shift you believe is coming faster than most expect.
Share your ideas in the comments. I’ll synthesise the strongest contributions into two additional opportunities - #11 and #12 - in an update of this article in the New Year.
Together, let’s shape the agenda for HR in 2026.
REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING
The following resources informed the 2026 opportunities and are all recommended reading (or listening!) for readers (Please note some resources informed more than one opportunity for in the interests of brevity have only been listed once):
Introduction: HR’s R&D Moment
PwC, 28th Annual Global CEO Survey (2025) | IBM Institute for Business Value, CEO Study: Five Mindshifts to Supercharge Business Growth (2025) | World Economic Forum (Attilio Di Battista, Sam Grayling, Ximena Játiva, Till Alexander Leopold, Ricky LI, Shuvasish Sharma, and Saadia Zahidi), Future of Jobs Report (2025) | Accenture (Karalee Close and Kestas Sereiva), Reinventing enterprise models in the age of generative AI (2025) | Ethan Mollick, One Useful Thing (Blog) | Jason Averbook, Now to Next (Blog) | Wharton and GBK Collective (Jeremy Korst, Stefano Puntoni and Prasanna Tambe), Accountable Acceleration: Gen AI Fast-Tracks Into the Enterprise (2025) | Bain (Vincent Greco, Ph.D and John Hazan), You Can't Spell AI without HR: The Surprising Secret to Scale (2025) | Peter Hinssen and David Green ?? - Uncertainty as an Opportunity: HR’s Role in Shaping the Future of Work (Digital HR Leaders podcast episode)
Opportunity 1 (Redesign Work for a Human–AI Operating System)
McKinsey Quantum Black (Alex Singla, Alexander Sukharevsky, Lareina Yee, Michael Chui, Bryce Hall and Tara Balakrishnan), The State of AI in 2025: Agents, Innovation and Transformation (2025) | Microsoft Work Trends, 2025: The Year the Frontier Firm is born (2025) | Kathleen Hogan - Becoming a Frontier Firm: Orchestrating Microsoft’s Next Transformation in the Age of AI | Deloitte (Kyle Forrest, Chetan Jain, Greg Vert, Franz Gilbert, Arthur Mazor, Simona Spelman, Bhawna Bist, Derek Polzien), HR Reimagined (2025) | McKinsey ( Alexander Sukharevsky, Alexis Krivkovich, Arne Gast, Arsen Storozhev, Dana Maor, Deepak Mahadevan, Lari Hamalainen, and Sandra Durth), The agentic organization: Contours of the next paradigm for the AI era (2025) | Oliver Wyman Forum (Ana Kreacic, Amy Lasater-Wille, Lucia Uribe, Ravin Jesuthasan, CFA, FRSA, John Romeo, and Simon Luong), How Generative AI Is Changing The Future Of Work (2025) | Ravin Jesuthasan, CFA, FRSA, Want AI-Driven Productivity? Redesign Work (2025) | McKinsey Global Institute (Lareina Yee, Anu Madgavkar, Sven Smit, Alexis Krivkovich, Michael Chui, María Jesús Ramírez Larraín and Diego A. Castresana Bao), Agents, robots, and us: Skill partnerships in the age of AI (2025) | Loren I. Shuster and David Green ??, How LEGO Integrates People, Places and Culture (Digital HR Leaders podcast, 2024) | Dave Ulrich, Talent Advantage = AI (Artificial Intelligence) * HI (Human Ingenuity): A Formula for Business and HR Leaders (2025) | McKinsey (Sandra Durth, Asmus Komm, and Charlotte Seiler), HR’s transformative role in an agentic future (2025) | Stanford (Yijia Shao, Humishka Zope, Yucheng Jiang, Jiaxin Pei, David Nguyen, Erik Brynjolfsson, Yang Diyi), Future of Work with AI Agents (2025)
Opportunity 2 (Elevate Strategic Workforce Planning into a Core Enterprise Discipline)
McKinsey (Neel Gandhi, Sandra Durth, and Vincent Bérubé, Charlotte Seiler, Kritvi Kedia and Randy Lim), The Critical Role of Strategic Workforce Planning in the Age of AI (2025) | Deloitte (Susan Cantrell, Russell Klosk (智能虎), Zac Shaw, Kevin Moss, Christopher Tomke, and Michael Griffiths), The Future of Workforce Planning (2025) | Ross Sparkman and David Green ??, How to Influence Business Strategy Through Workforce Planning, (Digital HR Leaders podcast, 2025) | David Edwards, The Strategic Workforce Planning Handbook (2026) | Gartner (Maggie Schroeder-O’Neal and Jonah Shepp), 3 Steps to Initiate a Strategic Workforce Plan (2024) | PwC, Saratoga Annual HR & Workforce Benchmarking Report (2025) | Diane Gherson, Lynda Gratton and David Green ?? - The Key Role of HR In Successfully Integrating a Blended Workforce (Digital HR Leaders podcast, 2024)
Opportunity 3 (Build a Dynamic Skills and Capability Ecosystem)
World Economic Forum (Neil Allison , Ximena Játiva, and Aarushi Singhania), Global Skills Taxonomy Adoption Toolkit: Defining a Common Skills Language for a Future-Ready Workforce (2025) | Lisa K. Simon, How Much Is a Skill Worth? (2025) | BCG (Vinciane Beauchene, Sylvain Duranton, Nipun Kalra, and David Martin), AI at Work 2025: Momentum Builds, But Gaps Remain (2025) | World Economic Forum ( Mario Di Gregorio, Genesis Elhussein, Ximena Játiva, Saadia Zahidi), New Economy Skills: Unlocking the Human Advantage (2025) | Amy Baxendale and David Green ??, How Arcadis is Building a Skills Powered Organisation (Digital HR Leaders podcast, 2025), Sandra Loughlin, PhD and David Green ??, Building a Skills-Based Organisation: Lessons from a 30-Year Journey(Digital HR Leaders podcast, 2024)
Opportunity 4 (Reshape Leadership for the Agentic Age)
BCG (Vinciane Beauchene, Orsolya Kovacs-Ondrejkovic and David Martin), As AI Changes Work, CEOs Must Change How Work Happens (2025) | Gartner, Top 3 Strategic Priorities for Chief HR Officers (2025) | Rebecca Hinds, PhD and Bob Sutton, The 5 AI Tensions Leaders Need to Navigate (2025) | Katarina Berg and David Green ??, The New CHRO-CEO Partnership: Leading with Insight and Humanity (Digital HR Leaders podcast, 2025)
Opportunity 5 (Strengthen Organisational Health, Fairness & Inclusion to Unlock Sustainable Performance)
McKinsey Health Institute and World Economic Forum (Barbara Jeffery, Brooke Weddle, Jacqui Brassey, PhD, MA, MAfN ?️? ?? (née Schouten) and Shail Thaker) - Thriving workplaces: How employers can improve productivity and change lives (2025) | Jan-Emmanuel De Neve, Micah Kaats and George Ward, Workplace Wellbeing and Firm Performance (2024) | Erin Meyer and David Green ?? - How to Bridge Cultures and Lead Global Teams for Success (Digital HR Leaders podcast episode, 2025) | Patricia Frost, Ruslan Tovbulatov, and David Green ??, The AI Pivot: Seagate’s Workforce Transformation in the Age of AI (Digital HR Leaders podcast, 2025)
Opportunity 6 (Reimagine Employee Experience for a Hybrid, AI-Augmented Workforce)
Deloitte (Susan Cantrell, David Mallon, Kevin Moss, Nicole Scoble-Williams GAICD, and Yves Van Durme), 2025 Global Human Capital Trends (2025) | Brian Elliott, Nick Bloom and Prithwiraj Choudhury, Hybrid Work Is Not the Problem — Poor Leadership Is (2025) | Michael Fraccaro and David Green ??, How Mastercard is Using AI to Drive Employee Success and Leadership Growth(Digital HR Leaders podcast, 2024)
Opportunity 7 (Scale People Analytics as a Strategic Intelligence Function)
Insight222 (Madhura Chakrabarti, PhD, Heidi Binder-Matsuo, Jay Dorio, and Jonathan Ferrar) Navigating AI & People Analytics from Ambition to Action: People Analytics Trends Report 2025–2026 (Available from January 15, 2026) | Thomas Hedegaard Rasmussen, Mike Ulrich, and Dave Ulrich, Moving People Analytics From Insight to Impact (2023) | Cole Napper, The Tree of Value (2025) | Dawn Klinghoffer and David Green ??, How Microsoft Uses People Data to Shape Flexible Working That Helps Teams Thrive (Digital HR Leaders podcast, 2025) | Amy Coleman, Flexible work update (Microsoft, 2025) | Sharon Taylor, Jaco Van Vuuren and David Green ??, Digitising HR for 55,000 Employees: Lessons from Standard Bank (Digital HR Leaders podcast, 2024)
Opportunity 8 (Embed Responsible AI & Workforce Governance)
Gartner (Helen Poitevin), AI in HR: Hits, Misses & Growing Pains (2025) | TI People, From AI Impact Assessment to Results (2025) | Amy Edmondson and David Green ??, How Learning to Fail Can Help People and Organisations to Thrive (Digital HR Leaders podcast, 2024) | Dr Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic and David Green ?? - Why Authenticity Is Overrated — and What Great Leaders Do Instead (Digital HR Leaders podcast, 2025)
Opportunity 9 (Elevate the CHRO as Enterprise Co-Pilot in Organisational Reinvention)
BCG (Julie Bedard and David Martin), Strategy and Soft Skills: What CEOs Should Look For in an AI-First Chief People Officer (2025) | Josh Bersin, The Pivotal Role Of Chief HR Officer in AI Transformation (2025) | Josh Bersin and Kathi Enderes, Secrets Of The High Performing CHRO (2025) | Eric Anicich and Dart Lindsley, Reimagining Work as a Product (2024) | Dave Ulrich, Dick Beatty, and Patrick Wright, The HR Inflection Points: What’s Next for HR and How to Respond (2025) | Janine Vos and David Green ??, The CHRO’s Playbook: How to Build an Agile and Data-Driven HR Function (Digital HR Leaders podcast, 2025)
Opportunity 10 (Reinvent the HR Operating Model and HR Capabilities for the Agentic Era)
Mercer (Emily Liddle, Jim Scully, Alexandra Zea, Jonathan Gordin, David Mitchell, Kristin Rhebergen and JESS VON BANK), Operating by Design: Mercer’s new outcome-driven operating model for HR and technology (2025) | McKinsey (Asmus Komm, Fernanda Mayol, Neel Gandhi, Sandra Durth, and Dr. Jasmin Kiefer), A new operating model for people management: More personal, more tech, more human (2025) | Volker Jacobs, AI is Reshaping the HR Operating Model: Here's What 15 Leading Companies Discovered (2025) | Volker Jacobs and David Green ??, How AI is Reshaping the HR Operating Model (Digital HR Leaders podcast, 2025) | Tanuj Kapilashrami, Ravin Jesuthasan, CFA, FRSA, and David Green ??, How to Build the Skills-Powered Organisation (Digital HR Leaders podcast, 2024)
What HR Must Become to Deliver These Opportunities
Jacqui Canney and Brandon Roberts, How to make AI work for people: A playbook for HR and business leaders (2025) | Insight222 (Naomi Verghese, Jonathan Ferrar and Jordan Pettman), Building the People Analytics Ecosystem Operating Model 2.0 Report (2024) | Insight222 (Naomi Verghese and Jonathan Ferrar), Upskilling the HR Profession: Building Data Literacy at Scale (2023) | John Golden, Ph.D., Alexis Fink, Steve Hunt, The Future of Work 2025: Why HR Holds the Pen to Rewrite the Playbook (2025) | Tima Bansal and Julian Birkinshaw, Why You Need Systems Thinking Now (2025) | Amy Edmondson and Dr Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic, The Perils of Using AI to Replace Entry-Level Jobs (2025) | Nickle LaMoreaux and David Green ??, How IBM Uses AI to Transform Their HR Strategies (Digital HR Leaders podcast, 2024), Thomas Otter and David Green ?? - AI in HR Tech: What Investors and Leaders Need to Know (Digital HR Leaders podcast, 2025)
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
David Green ?? is a globally respected author, speaker, conference chair, and executive consultant on people analytics, data-driven HR and the future of work. As Managing Partner and Executive Director at Insight222, he has overall responsibility for the delivery of the Insight222 People Analytics Program, which supports the advancement of people analytics in over 120 global organisations. Prior to co-founding Insight222, David accumulated over 20 years experience in the human resources and people analytics fields, including as Global Director of People Analytics Solutions at IBM. As such, David has extensive experience in helping organisations increase value, impact and focus from the wise and ethical use of people analytics. David also hosts the Digital HR Leaders Podcast and is an instructor for Insight222's myHRfuture Academy. His book, co-authored with Jonathan Ferrar, Excellence in People Analytics: How to use Workforce Data to Create Business Value was published in the summer of 2021.
MEET ME AT THESE EVENTS
I speak regularly at in-person and virtual events about people analytics, the future of work, and data driven HR. Below are the events I'm speaking at up to the end of May 2026:
February 25-26, People Analytics World, Zurich
March 17-19, Unleash America, Las Vegas
April 20-21, People Analytics World, London
May 18, Building Data Literacy in HR - Executive Masterclass, Warsaw
More events will be added as soon as they are confirmed.
THANK YOU
As the year draws to its close, I'd also like to thank a host of people: conference organisers that invited me to speak at their events in 2025, Digital HR Leaders podcast guests and sponsors and those that regularly share and comment on my content here. This is certainly not an exhaustive list but thank you to: Marc Coleman Jeremy Roden Barry Swales Louis Gordon Andreas De Neve ? Julius Schelstraete ? Tanya Arrowsmith Ben Harris Philip Arkcoll Parker Mitchell David Wilkins Julie Asselin Pushkaraj Bidwai Lewis Garrad Nick Lynn Anna A. Tavis, PhD Jeremy Shapiro Stela Lupushor Richard Rosenow Amit Mohindra Dan Riley Pietro Mazzoleni Dr Philip Gibbs Håvard Berntzen Even Bolstad Anne-Marie Andric Malgorzata SZARZEC Hung Lee Lucy Adams Maya Lane Deborah M. Weiss Matthew Bidwell Laura Zarrow Jennifer Neumann Ankita Jha Martha Curioni Sanja Licina, Ph.D. Serena H. Huang, Ph.D. Irada Sadykhova Irina Villacreces, M.S., SPHR, PMP Adam McKinnon, PhD. Hanadi El Sayyed Greg Newman David van Lochem Chin Yin Ong Swechha Mohapatra (IHRP-SP, SHRM-SCP, CIPD) Siobhan Savage ?? Dave Fineman Ben Zweig Jeff Schwartz Fatma Hedeya Meg Bear Dominic Boon Philippa Penfold FCIPD Narelle Burke Geetanjali Gamel Jonathon Frampton Dan Lapporte Shujaat Ahmad Blaine Ames Chris Long Rob Baker, FCIPD, MAPP Perry Timms Alicia Roach Catherine de la Poer Jeff Wellstead Paola Alfaro Alpízar Marta Gascón Corella Sergio Garcia Mora Sebastian Knepper Sebastian Kolberg Timo Tischer Bob Pulver Seth Hollander, MBA Melissa Arronte Victoria Holdsworth Alexandra Nawrat Nima Sherpa Green Gianni Giacomelli Phil Kirschner Roxanne Bisby Davis Amelia Irion Ekta Lall Mittal Arne-Christian Van Der Tang Stacia Garr Priyanka Mehrotra Laurent Reich Paul Rubenstein Dirk Jonker Jacob Nielsen Patrick Coolen Jaap Veldkamp Anish Lalchandani Michael Arena Greg Pryor David McLean Kate Bravery Brian Heger Anita Lettink Alan Susi Gal Mozes, PhD Prasad Setty Henrik Håkansson Dr. Tobias Bartholomé Colin Fisher Jenny Dearborn, MBA Toby Hough Jodie Evans Katarina Coppé Jurgen Hofstede Don Dela Paz Andrés García Ayala Angela LE MATHON Oliver Kasper Daisuke Ikegami Elson P. Kuriakose Phil Inskip Sophia Huang, Ed.D. Søren Kold Asaf Jackoby Joonghak Lee John Gunawan Josh Tarr Phil Willburn Ying Li Prabhakar Pandey Delia Majarín Tina Peeters, PhD Agnes Garaba Nico Orie Kouros Behzad Andrew Pitts Kristin Saboe, Ph.D. Nicole Lettich Al Adamsen Maria Alice Jovinski Miriam Daucher Chris Hare Avani Solanki Prabhakar Alex Browne Jaejin Lee Kevin Oakes Todd Raphael Ian OKeefe Amanda Nolen Kevin Le Vaillant
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