今天是选举日：HR机构领导者认为未来经济形势会更加光明
今天是选举日，有人正在权衡此次投票对美国经济可能带来的影响。
据《巴伦周刊》报道，Adecco集团的首席执行官Denis Machuel向法新社表示，无论谁获胜，选举结束后美国的招聘活动预计都会恢复。
“企业不喜欢不确定性：它们希望了解未来会发生什么。而这种不确定性并未真正有利于美国市场，”据《巴伦周刊》报道，“一旦选举结束，无论谁赢得选举，我们的经济将会比之前获得更多的推动力。”
10月22日的Robert Half财报电话会议也提到了选举及其不确定性。
“在通货膨胀较低和广泛预期进一步降息的背景下，NFIB的小企业乐观指数在过去六个月中有五个月呈上升趋势，”该公司总裁兼首席执行官M. Keith Waddell在电话会议中说道。“尽管如此，NFIB的不确定性指数却达到历史新高，部分原因是即将到来的美国选举。许多经济学家正在上调他们的预测，随着选举的结束，总体宏观环境应该会有所改善。”
供应管理协会（ISM）在其服务业ISM报告中也提到了选举，并指出“与上月相比，关于政治不确定性的担忧再次增加。”
总体而言，ISM指出其服务业PMI指数上升至56%，这是自2022年7月以来的最高水平，显示出美国服务业的加速扩张。然而，该报告基于全美采购和供应管理人员的数据，许多人提到选举对行业的影响。
“一些客户在我们的技术业务线和能源相关项目中着眼于未来——选举后将启动下一阶段项目，”一位采购和供应管理人员表示。
另一位ISM的受访者指出，由于资金在选举后才会释放，新订单略有下降。
而不仅是总统选举在影响着行业。几个州也在进行最低工资标准的投票，马萨诸塞州的选民则在投票是否为Uber等公司独立司机提供加入工会的途径，路透社报道。
在加州，选民将决定32号州提案是否通过，这项提案将把该州的最低工资标准在2026年提高到每小时18美元。该州已经要求快餐店员工的最低工资为每小时20美元。
原文作者：Craig Johnson
Today is Election Day, and some are weighing in on the possible impact of today’s vote on the US economy.
Adecco Group CEO Denis Machuel told AFP that regardless of who wins, hiring in the US should recover post-election, according to a report in Barron’s.
“Businesses don’t like uncertainty: They like to know what’s going to happen. And that level of uncertainty hasn’t really helped the US market,” according to the report in Barron’s. “Once this is over, no matter who wins, we’re going to have more tailwinds than we had so far.”
The election and uncertainty were also mentioned in Robert Half’s earnings call on Oct. 22.
“With lower inflation and widespread expectations of further rate cuts, the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index has been up five of the last six months,” President and CEO M. Keith Waddell said in the call. “That said, the NFIB’s Uncertainty Index is at all-time highs, in part due to the upcoming US elections. Many economists are making upward revisions to their forecasts, and as we get past the elections, the overall macro environment should begin to improve.”
The Institute for Supply Management also mentioned the election in its Services ISM report, noting that “concerns over political uncertainty were again more prevalent than the previous month.”
Overall, the ISM noted its Services PMI rose to a reading of 56% — the highest since July 2022 — indicating faster expansion in the US services sector. However, the report is based on data from purchasing and supply executives across the US, and several comments were made on the election.
“Seeing emerging projects in our technology business line as well as in energy-related projects, where many customers are looking forward — post-election — to release their next phases,” one purchasing and supply executive said.
Another ISM comment noted that new orders were slightly lower because of funds being held back until after the election.
And it’s not just the presidential election influencing the industry. Several states are voting on minimum wage rates, and Massachusetts voters are weighing in on whether to provide a path for independent contractor drivers at firms such as Uber to join unions, Reuters reported.
In California, voters are deciding on state Proposition 32, which would raise the state’s minimum wage to $18 per hour by 2026. The state already requires fast food workers to be paid $20 per hour.
Josh Bersin:Digital Twins, Digital Employees, And Agents Everywhere2025 年，数字员工和人工智能助理的崛起将彻底改变人力资源运营，改变招聘、数据分析和员工管理等任务。 这些技术包括数字双胞胎和智能代理，它们将与人类专业人员一起工作，以提高生产力和优化工作流程。 随着人工智能工具成为日常业务不可或缺的一部分，人力资源领导者必须拥抱这些创新，同时继续关注技能培训、心理健康和包容性工作环境。 向人工智能的转变还将重塑团队动态，这对人力资源部门重新设计角色和流程以保持竞争力提出了挑战。
I recently heard Elon Musk predict that every citizen would have multiple Optimus robots in their homes within five years. And while I often ignore his predictions because they’re exaggerated, I think he’s on to something. We are about to witness an explosion of Digital Employees in our companies, and these may be the “robots” we’ve heard about for years.
Let me explain. This week I talked with dozens of vendors and clients at Unleash and then visited our development partner Sana Labs in Stockholm. It’s now clear that we’re going to be working with multitudes of “digital employees” in the year ahead.
(And as Dario Amodei, the founder of Anthropic explains, AI can do many more positive things in business, science, and health than we ever imagined.)
By “digital employee” I mean a software powered agent that can talk with us, answer detailed questions, solve complex analytic problems, and navigate a multitude of systems. ChatGPT and its peers, which introduced the idea of an agent, has now spawned dozens of “agentic” use cases, which I’d be willing to refer to as personalities.
Let me start with a “Digital Twin.” Imagine you have a superb customer service agent with years of experience helping your most demanding clients. If you load the last five years of their emails, coupled with all their internal documentation, and a log history of their last two years of service calls, you can essentially “create him or her” digitally with all the knowledge, style, and internal contacts this person has developed. This twin, which may look initially like an AI assistant, could then carry on this employee’s work when the real life worker is on vacation.
One of our clients, a large insurance company, has already built “digital twins” for claims processing. If you think about the complexity and workflow of processing a claim, much of it could be learned by an agent, making the “claims robot” an expert on this important process. And as you change claims rules and limits, the agent will learn new guidelines in only seconds.
Our AI assistant Galileo, a trained expert on HR (Galileo is trained on 25 years of research and thousands of conversations with clients and vendors), is essentially a “digital twin” of me and the other analysts in our firm. I’m not saying Galileo is as fun to talk with as we are, but I can assure you that he (or she) is as knowledgeable and supportive. And Galileo is even smarter than I am: he has instant knowledge of skills models, compensation benchmarks, turnover statistics, and other data bases which I can only access by looking them up on demand.
And using the Sana platform we can configure Galileo to have multiple personalities. Galileo the “Recruitment Agent” might have in-depth knowledge of screening, interviewing, and candidate skills assessment and he may have direct linkage to SeekOut, Eightfold, or any other sourcing applications. In his candidate facing personality he may be able to answer candidate questions, explain shift schedules, and “sell” the company to top job candidates. (This is what Paradox has done for years and vendors like Eightfold and LinkedIn are launching now.)
But there’s more. Imagine that this “digital twin” or “digital employee” has intimate knowledge of Workday, SuccessFactors, or a variety of other systems. Now the assistant can not only answer questions and help solve problems, he can also process transactions, look things up, and run reports against multiple system. The digital employee has turned into a “digital analyst,” who can find things and do work for you, saving you hours of effort in your daily life. (Vee from Visier is designed for this.)
Suppose you ask your digital friend to attend meetings for you, participate in conversations on certain topics, and alert you in real time when urgent issues come up for discussion. He could help you scale your time, keep you informed about decisions you need to know about, and help you manage your action items. And the list goes on and on and on.
Best of all, what if your digital twin can talk to you. Suppose he “checks in” with you about the project you asked for help with last week, so you inform him how things are going and he gets “smarter” about what you may need next. Galileo does this today, prompting you to dig into a problem and explore areas you may not have considered. And if you ask him about management or people issues, he could give you advice and coaching, based on the leadership models or even CEO interviews in your own company. (BetterUp, Valence and others are working on this.)
This is not science fiction, my friends. All this is becoming reality and will certainly be common next year.
Every vendor has a slightly different focus. The Microsoft Copilot specializes in MS Office-related activities, ServiceNow’s focuses on internal service and support, Galileo is focused on the needs of HR, and Joule is an expert on all the functions of SAP. Each of these “digital employees” needs training, feedback, and connections to stay current and relevant. So it’s doubtful that one digital employee will do everything. (Training a digital employee means managing his or her corpus of information, which will be a major new role in HR.)
One thing is very clear: we are going to be living and working with these guys. And as we use them and see what they’re capable of, we’re going to redesign work. Little by little we’ll offload tasks, projects, and workflows. And as we do, we’ll get smarter and smarter about redesigning our teams.
I liken the process to that of a carpenter who gets a new multi-function power drill. Before the drill he may have manually drilled holes, carefully selecting the drill bit and the level of pressure based on wood density. Now he drills holes faster, more accurately, and with more precision. Soon he just speeds through the process, spending more time on cabinet fit, finish, or design.
The same thing will happen to our HR tasks, projects, and designs. And these new digital employees are programmable! So once we figure out what they’re capable of we can adjust them, customize them, and connect them together. Eventually we’ll have intelligent assistants that operate as entire applications. And that’s the threat to incumbent software companies – the agents hollow out many of our existing applications.
How Do Our Digital Employees Impact Our Own Work?
One more observation. Many a few of the clients I talked with kept asking “what about our softskills?” What work is truly human?
I think that’s the wrong question. Rather we should ask the opposite: how much can I delegate to my new friends as fast as possible!
Have you been upset that your vacuum cleaner took away the rewarding human work of sweeping a floor? How much joy do you get from washing dishes? Did your dishwasher make you feel deflated when you stopped splashing around in the soapy water?
Of course not – these tools eliminated tasks we considered to be “drudgery.”
Well today, thanks to digital assistants, creating a pivot table to do cross-tab analysis has become drudgery. You can stop getting your hands wet with that task – ask Galileo or Copilot to analyze the data, and then ask him to chart it, add more data, and try new assumptions. The more we learn to use these new digital employees the more “drudgery” we can stop doing.
And consider complex “human-centered” activities like “change management.” A client asked me “how could Galileo help me with change management for our new HCM system?”
I answered her with dozens of ideas: ask Galileo for case studies of other companies and have it build a checklist to consider based on what other companies did. Then ask Galileo to build a training plan; ask it to read the user documentation and create a table of what features are new; then ask Galileo to rewrite that change plan by role. And finally ask Galileo to write a press release about success, craft some compelling communications to employees, and ask it to compute the ROI of all the steps eliminated.
These are all “manual” human tasks we do today and they take time and ingenuity to figure out. If you went through this process in Galileo you could ask your digital employee to save these steps and prompts in a “template,” and you have just taught your digital employee how to do change management. The next time you need him he can step you through the process.
As I started to explain this to my client I stopped and said: wait a minute. I can’t possibly show you everything Galileo can do. You have to try it for yourself.
And that’s my big message. Don’t wait for a vendor to drop a finished solution in your lap. These are intelligent, trainable, digital experts. You have to get to know them so you can figure out where they fit in your job, your projects, and your company. Just like you do with any new hire.
I say it’s time to get started. No more sweeping floors or washing dishes by hand. Let’s meet our digital employees, tell them about our projects, and ask for their help. Step by step, day by day, we can redesign our jobs to be more more productive, liberating us to do greater things.
2024美国大选对招聘行业的深远影响，HR应如何应对？ How the US elections could affect recruiting随着2024年美国大选的临近，选举结果可能对招聘趋势产生重大影响。根据Appcast首席经济学家Andrew Flowers的分析，选民最关心的三大问题——经济（包括就业和股票市场）、移民和通胀（包括生活成本）——都与招聘紧密相关。移民政策影响招聘人员的可用人才库，而通胀和生活成本则影响薪酬和工资增长预期。
Flowers在2024年10月15日的网络研讨会上探讨了美国大选可能对2025年招聘战略产生的影响。他列举了四种可能的选举结果，并对每种情景的招聘影响进行分析。例如，Harris获胜的情况下，可能对劳动力需求、供应和工资影响较小，而共和党全面执政则可能导致劳动力供应减少，工资增长。
选举的结果对招聘市场将产生不同的影响，从关税、税收政策、移民政策到工资增长等多方面，招聘人员必须为多种可能性做好准备。Flowers指出，这次选举结果悬而未决，总统选举结果接近50-50，众议院和参议院的控制权也未定。
“总统选举结果极其接近，”Flowers强调道。“任何结果都有可能。”此外，无论哪个党派掌握众议院和参议院，都可能影响未来的招聘政策，招聘人员应关注候选人的关税政策、移民执法和税法变化。
他提出的四种情景包括：1. Harris胜选，国会分裂或由共和党掌控，可能对劳动力市场影响中立；2. 共和党胜选并控制国会，可能导致移民政策收紧，工资增长；3. Trump胜选并国会分裂，可能对工资和移民政策影响较小；4. 民主党全面执政可能有利于劳动力供应和工资增长。
Flowers总结道，他的分析旨在提供非党派的观点，招聘人员应密切关注选举结果对未来招聘战略的影响。
人们在选择候选人时认为最重要的三个问题——经济（包括就业和股市）、移民和通货膨胀（包括生活成本）——都与招聘密切相关。
例如，移民影响了人才库以及招聘人员能够招聘的对象，程序化招聘广告提供商Appcast的首席经济学家Andrew Flowers在一次网络广播中表示。另一个方面，通货膨胀和生活成本会影响薪酬和预期的工资增长。
Flowers的网络广播《美国大选如何影响2025年招聘策略》于10月15日举行，旨在提供对选举影响的非党派观点。
“无论哪位候选人当选，我们都处于一个高度通胀的环境，”他说，并补充道，选民似乎并不愿意削减支出。
Flowers强调，由于这次总统选举竞争非常激烈，招聘人员面临着严峻的形势。
“总统职位基本上是五五开，”他说。“选情非常接近……可能会朝任意一方倾斜。”
Flowers还指出，美国众议院和参议院的控制权也悬而未决。尽管预测人士认为参议院可能会从民主党翻转到共和党，但众议院的控制权将在11月选举中紧张角逐。
影响招聘的因素还包括候选人是否引入更多关税、他们对驱逐非法移民的政策以及2017年《减税和就业法》下的个人税率，这些税率将在2025年底到期。
Flowers提出了四种情景：
情景1：卡马拉·哈里斯获胜，而国会则可能分裂或由共和党控制两院。这个情景的概率为45%，Flowers表示，这对劳动力需求、供给和工资的影响将是中性的。关税和税收政策将保持现状，边境执法将仅有适度收紧。
情景2：共和党占据总统和国会两院的主导地位。这个情景的概率为30%。Flowers表示，这对劳动力需求的影响可能是中性的，潜在的关税可能会减缓经济增长，而可能的税收减免则可能促进增长。然而，可能的大规模驱逐移民的政策可能对劳动力供给产生负面影响。不过，由于通胀、财政、贸易和移民政策的影响，工资可能会上涨。
情景3：唐纳德·特朗普赢得总统大选，国会则可能分裂或由民主党控制两院。Flowers认为这种情况的可能性为20%。在这种情况下，潜在的关税可能会减缓经济增长，税收状况可能维持现状。劳动力供给的影响将是中性的，边境执法也将仅有适度收紧。通胀的财政和贸易政策可能对工资产生正面影响，导致工资上涨。
情景4：民主党占据总统和国会两院的主导地位。这个情景的概率仅为5%，Flowers表示，这对劳动力需求的影响将是中性的。然而，它可能对劳动力供给产生正面影响，移民政策将保持强劲，儿童保育政策也将得到实施。同时，随着劳动力权力的上升，结合通胀的财政政策，工资可能会上涨。
距离11月5日的选举还有三周，Flowers强调，他的分析旨在以非党派的角度审视事实，而不是支持某个特定的候选人或政党。
原文来自 https://www.staffingindustry.com/news/global-daily-news/how-the-us-elections-could-affect-recruiting
观点
2024年10月16日
观点
ADP Lyric HCM, The Next-Gen HR Platform Many Have Waited ForJosh Bersin 写文章介绍了ADP的 Lyric HCM，给予了高度评价。ADP于2018年启动了一项秘密项目，目标是开发下一代企业人力资源管理平台。这个项目最终被命名为ADP Lyric HCM，它的设计旨在应对当代灵活多变的工作环境。Lyric HCM基于高度可扩展的微服务架构，能够处理包括全职、兼职、临时工、自由职业者等多种员工类型，同时支持多重管理结构。该平台具有灵活性，可帮助企业快速适应组织重组、兼并收购等变化，且能够实现全球薪资和税务管理，提供符合各地法律法规的自定义规则。
Lyric HCM的设计不仅注重系统的灵活性，还融入了大量的AI功能，使其在用户体验上更加智能化和易用。通过ADP Assist这一AI工具，用户可以通过自然语言与系统互动，轻松进行复杂的HR操作。此外，Lyric HCM还提供实时的行业基准数据，帮助企业根据最新的薪酬和岗位信息做出决策。该系统的“人本位”架构使其更具灵活性，相比传统以职位为基础的系统，它可以更好地满足当代企业多重任务、多角色管理的需求。
Lyric HCM不仅支持多种HR功能，如招聘、绩效管理、培训和发展，还拥有一个统一的员工体验平台，员工可以通过简单的查询完成例如婚假申请等事务。此外，ADP还建立了强大的全球服务团队，确保客户获得定制化的实施和长期支持。
自上线以来，ADP Lyric HCM已经吸引了超过120个大型客户，证明了其系统的稳定性和可扩展性。其核心市场定位是为全球化、分布式的企业提供服务，尤其是在零售、医疗保健、餐饮等行业。作为一款融合AI技术的全新平台，Lyric HCM展示了未来人力资源管理系统的潜力，并成为Workday、Oracle、SAP等主要HCM供应商的有力竞争对手。
In the Spring of 2018 I attended a confidential meeting in New York City to learn about a project called Lifion. ADP had hired a new team of engineers convened in a secret mission to build the “next-generation platform” for ADP’s offerings in the enterprise market.
This new system, designed ten years after the release of Workday, was intended to be a highly scalable, configurable, micro-services based system, capable of managing payroll, HR processes, and all talent applications for any category of employee. The system had to support dynamic teams, many worker modalities (full-time, part-time, hourly, gig, contract), and enable a company to manage many organization structures within its corporate function, each with different business rules and overlapping employees.
It was designed, in a sense, for the highly flexible, dynamic companies of the post-pandemic era.
In addition to this flexible architecture, the system was designed to support workers with multiple managers (and multiple time sheets), dynamic reconfiguration for M&A or new business entities, and global payroll and tax services with custom business rules that might be variable across the company. It needed to include a recruiting module, a variety of options for goals and performance management, tools for onboarding and development, excellent reporting, and an easy-to-use narrative interface that let any employee, manager, or HR professional use, configure, or run reports on the system.
In my initial meeting I walked away impressed, and I wrote an article describing this project. Today, almost six years later, this product has a name (ADP Lyric HCM) and it has reached general availability for ADP customers with 1,000 customers or more.
Today ADP has 120+ large accounts so the system is proven. And since its inception Lyric HCM has been infused with extensive AI features (ADP Assist is on par with SAP Joule as a true AI interface) and benchmark information from ADP’s data cloud.
In other words, this system has the potential to be a “The Next Generation” HCM platform in the market.
What Is ADP Announcing And Offering
The core HR system has to do a lot of things. Not only does it have to manage payroll, benefits, and tax rules (in a global, constantly changing regulatory environment), it has to be flexible, easy to configure, and filled with easy-to-use interfaces for employees and HR. And by “flexible” I mean the system has to make it easy to open a new org structure, move employees around, and create multiple modes for a “manager” or supervisor.
Almost all traditional HCM providers, Workday, Oracle, and SAP, were not designed to work this way. These vendors built contract work add-ons but in most cases when you want to flatten your organization, merge with another company, or reorganize roles it’s difficult. Flattening the organization often means “re-implementing” your HRMS. Most companies only do it once a decade.
ADP Lyric HCM is designed to fix this. Imagine a company like Gold’s Gym where the company is constantly opening new Gyms and hiring new managers, with employees dual reporting to multiple managers.
I talked with Gold’s Gym and as you can imagine the company went through a transformation during the pandemic. Started as a Southern California fitness company, Gold’s was acquired and is now a global organization branching into many new offerings. Facilities were consolidated and each local fitness center operates with a lot of management independence.
For example, an employee who is a trainer in one gym with one manager may also be a trainer or support staff in another gym with another manager. This type of “work-centric” (as opposed to “job-centric”) operation is becoming very common. Lyric HCM supports these multi-manager work models, including features for performance management, time tracking, and contract workers.
Think about any retailer, healthcare company, or other highly distributed operation. One Gold’s Gym may pay overtime in one way, another in a different way. You can imagine the permutations. Every company has situations like this.
I was recently at Rolls-Royce where they are centralizing engineering teams away from product groups, making 30 to 40% of their engineers “floaters.” Rolls has enormous contracts with government and commercial customers, each with different financial models. They need a system like this just like a gym, restaurant chain, or elder care network.
There’s more. In addition to these HRMS and global payroll features, ADP has built an employee experience platform, employee communications system, and learning and development system. You simply type a query like “I’m getting married” and the system shows a page that consolidates tasks and resources in one place. If an HR manager wants to “pay a bonus” the system asks what organization, shows a list of people, and lets the manager define the bonus without hunting for menus and panels.
Highlights Of The Next Gen Approach
Since this system was architected in the age of AI, it has some very unique capabilities out of the box.
First, in the area of flexibility, this is a “person-based” architecture, as opposed to a “role-based” architecture. That feature alone enables all these features to be possible.
Second, in the area of usability, the system is among the most “AI-enabled” interfaces I’ve seen. While most HCMs are building assistants to speed through transactions, Lyric HCM literally “learns” what you’re trying to do and prompts you through the process. Remember these HCM systems are complex (Workday’s “Users Guide” is 2500 pages long), so we want the system to feel approachable not intimidating.
As you can see from this slide, ADP also offers embedded benchmarks as well as a nudge engine. The benchmarks come from ADP’s data cloud, giving companies up to date salary ranges and other metrics by job title and job level (no other HCM platforms do this). The nudge engine is used for Lyric HCM’s onboarding and development system, reminding users of tasks or activities they need to perform.
ADP Assist, the company’s Gen AI tool, lets you ask questions about any employee or group, legal and tax issues, and payroll or financial data. It’s quite powerful and I would say it rivals Joule as a conversational interface for HCM.
Third, the system has a novel and approachable interface for employees. Rather than offer people a variety of “centers” or “portals” to find things, the system is smart enough to give employees exactly what it thinks they need. Typical HR transactions like changing your family status or address, or looking at benefits or pay are simple. Persona-based dashboards are designed for payroll or tax managers. And any HR professional can customize the interface for their use.
Because the system is so dynamic, users can set up smart reports and other views to pinpoint the data and organizational unit they’re interested in. And ADP has built a management development tool (to take newly promoted supervisors through development), an onboarding system, and many features for performance and goal management.
Where Will This Go? ADP Services
When we think about ADP’s platforms we have to remember that ADP is not just a cloud software company. Most of the company’s revenue comes from services: payroll, PEO, and license fees around those offerings. This means ADP’s sales and service organization is very service-centric and highly trained in all areas of HR. (Most HR software sales teams are not HR domain experts.)
To support Lyric HCM the company put together a global service team combined with dedicated client success executives to make sure each customer has a personalized, outcome-based implementation plan. This means ADP Lyric HCM is not just a great platform, but a set of people to help with configuration, utilization, integration, and long-term planning. ADP is starting to work with integrators, but likely will handle most of their customer implementations themselves.
Impact On The Market.
At this point Lyric HCM is positioned as an offering for mid to large companies headquartered in the United States with global workforces. This means Lyric HCM is directly positioned to compete with UKG, Ceridian, Workday, Oracle, SAP, and vendors like Darwinbox, HiBob (which is going upmarket), Lattice, and others. The “Pay” companies (Paychex, Paycor, Paycom) are focused primarily on smaller companies, but as they grow their offering they may compete as well.
That is not to say ADP can solve every client need. These platforms mature over many years and each vendor has different industry and focus features. At this point I believe ADP will most likely win in industries like retail, hospitality, health care, and other distributed, hourly workforce companies. And given ADP’s focus on small and medium business, it will take time for ADP to reach large companies.
Nevertheless, it’s time for change in HCM. Designed for agility and infused with AI, ADP Lyric HCM shows us a future we’ve been looking for.
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